• General 27.06.2010 No Comments

    Now that we’ve completed the group stage of the World Cup, here are some betting agency news and updates.

    Bet365
    For the outright winner market, all losing bets from penalty shoot outs will be refunded, which is something to keep in mind when you compare odds with other bookmakers. England have a consistent track record of being eliminated through penalties in major tournaments.

    Luxbet
    It is not too late to grab a free football jersey for the World Cup team of your choosing. Click here to take advantage of the promotion.

    Sportsbet
    Sportsbet has refunded any bets on Australia to win the World Cup because they felt the two red cards Australia received were unfair!

    Chile and Paraguay are two dark horses in this tournament. Chile only just came second behind Brazil in qualifying, while Paraguay beat Chile, Brazil and Argentina during their qualification campaign. The South American teams are all looking strong this tournament. At the time of writing, with Betfailr you can get 1.98 odds on a South American team to win the tournament, which I think is pretty good value.

Centrebet Aus Freebet
  • General 22.06.2010 No Comments

    With the first two rounds of the Group Stage complete, there have been numerous changes to the odds on the FIFA 2010 World Cup winner. Because Betfair usually provides the best odds for tournament winners, the following figures are based on the Betfair odds. Note that Betfair caps odds at 1000-1, so for the tournament minnows you are better off placing bets with other bookmakers. For example, at the time of writing, bet365 is offering 1501-1 odds on Slovakia and 2001-1 odds on Honduras.

    Below are some selected odds changes:

          Pre-World Cup     Now
    Spain   5.00   6.20
    Paraguay   120.00   42.00
    Australia   140.00   1000.00
    South Africa   120.00   1000.00
    England   7.00   13.00
    South Korea   500.00   200.00
    Japan   770.00   320.00
    New Zealand   1000.00   1000.00

     

    Despite technically still being in with a chance of getting through to the next stage, New Zealand and Australia are both considered to be as good as eliminated. Paraguay could prove to be a real dark horse in the tournament. If all goes as expected, they would play Japan or Denmark in the round of 16, which I would back them to win. Paraguay defeated Brazil, Argentina and Chile during their qualifying campaign.

    South Africa has endured the largest rise in betting odds. They are on track to be the first ever World Cup hosts to be eliminated in the group stage. Fingers crossed they can avoid that fate. According to the BBC, some of the French stars may boycott the game against South Africa! I don’t recall what the odds were on France at the beginning of the tournament, but the odds are now 160-1 for them to win. To rub salt into the wound, French Sports Daily, L’Equipe, predicted prior to the tournament that New Zealand would fail to score a goal. With two games completed and France yet to score a goal themselves, they must be feeling sheepish.

PinnacleSports.com Online Sports Betting
  • It seems like every bookmaker is offering 2010 FIFA World Cup promotions at the moment. These take the form of freebies, betting bonuses, odds promotions, and refund offers. It pays to be aware of these offers if you have more than one account because they may determine who you place your bets with. As with any promotion, be sure to read the terms and conditions before placing any bets.

    Below is a list of promotions that I’m currently aware of. Let me know if I’ve missed any.


    Free football jersey promotion

    Don’t forget, new Luxbet members are still eligible to receive a free World Cup Jersey for the team of your choosing.


    bet365World Cup Penalty Payback

    • “Place a bet on the Outright Market for the 2010 World Cup and if the team you back is eliminated on penalties, we will refund your losing bet. This offer applies to both win and each-way bets.”
    • This promotion is highly valuable in the knockout stage, and irrelevant for the group stage. In the 2006 FIFA World Cup, one ’round of 16′, two quarterfinals, and the final were decided by penalties, so it’s an important promotion to keep in mind. I’m not sure if bet365 will adjust their odds accordingly, but if they offer the same odds as another bookmaker, you’d be mad not to go with bet365.

    bet365World Cup Bore Draw Money Back

    • “Our Bore Draw Money Back offer is being extended to include First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer and Anytime Goalscorer bets for every World Cup game! So have a pre-match bet on any World Cup match and if the game finishes 0-0 we will refund all losing bets on these markets: First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time, and Scorecast”
    • This promotion obviously applies to both the group and knockout stage matches. In the 2006 World Cup there were seven 0-0 draws in the sixty-four matches.

    CentrebetFat Lady

    • “Who says it’s over? We’ll refund all losing Correct Score bets on any World Cup match if your score is beaten by a goal scored in or after the 88th minute (from 87:00 onwards).”

    CentrebetBoar Draw

    • “No-one likes a 0-0 draw! We’ll refund all losing 1st Goal Scorer bets on any World Cup match that finishes goalless.”

    CentrebetSave the Best

    • “For last…any goal’s a good goal! We’ll refund all losing Last Goal Scorer bets on any World Cup match if your player scores but does not score last.”
    • This looks to be good value, especially for fixtures where a lot of goals are expected.

    IASbetMoney Back Specials

    • “Place a Match Bet (1×2) bet on any of the following matches this weekend, and if your team leads by half time but subsequently lose the match, we’ll refund your bet up to $200 per game. (Italy v Paraguay – Bonus code: ITVPAR) (Spain v Switzerland – Bonus code: SPVSW)”

    IASbetNovelty Specials

    • “England v USA: If the last goal scored in this match is a header, we’ll refund all losing First Goal Scorer Single Bets on this match up to $100. To register for this promotion, you must enter the bonus code: ENVUSA on the My Account page of the website by the start of the game on Saturday, 12 June 2010.”
    • “Germany v Australia: If Tim Cahill scores at anytime we will refund all losing first goalscorer bets up to $200. To register for this promotion, you must enter the bonus code: GEVAUS on the My Account page of the website by the start of the game on Sunday, 13 June 2010.”

    IASbetRefund Specials

    • “Receive a 10% Rebate on your losses during the World Cup on all group stage matches. The rebate is an amount equal to 10% of the cumulative settled stakes minus returns for all Internet bets placed on Match Bets (1×2) only. Simply enter the promotional code: WCREBATE on the My Account page of the website between Friday 11 June and Friday 25 June 2010.”

    Luxbet90 Minute Madness

    • “Our 90 Minute Madness is 90 minutes of crazy odds for those who are crazy about soccer. 90 Minute Madness is available each day of the tournament between 19:30 and 21:00 AEST and there will be a maximum total bet limit of $90 per account for each daily 90 Minute Madness.”
    • I’m not sure how much the odds generally change during the promotion. During the latest window they offered odds of 4.00 for South Africa to beat Mexico. After the window closed the odds dropped to 2.85. To see the promotional odds, click on ’90 Minute Madness’ in the side navigation panel once you’ve logged on.

    LuxbetFirst Goal Scorer Refund

    • “If you place a minimum $10 First Goal Scorer bet and the game finishes nil all (0-0) in normal time, Luxbet will refund your bet up to $200.”
    • This is similar to the bet365 promotion, but it only applies to first goal scorer.

    LuxbetPre-Match Injury Time Refund

    • “If you place a minimum $10 Match Result bet before the start of the game and your bet is winning but goes down in injury time, Luxbet will refund your bet up to $200.”
    • “Example: If Team A is leading 1-0 at the 89:59min mark, and then the match ends in a draw or Team B wins in injury time, all Match Result market bets placed on Team A before the scheduled start time of the match will be refunded up to $200.”
    • Does anyone recall Italy’s injury time penalty against Australia? :)

    LuxbetHalf Time Injury Time Refund

    • “Simply place a minimum $10 second half market bet (i.e. Second Half Result) during the half-time break by calling 132 LUX (132 589) and if your bet is unlucky enough to lose in injury-time, Luxbet will refund your money up to $200.”
    • “Example: If Team A leads the Second Half 1-0 (i.e. may differ from the actual Match result) at the 89:59min mark, but the Second Half ends in a Draw or Team B wins the second half, all bets on Team A will be refunded up to $200.”

    SportingBet2010 World Cup – Offer a Day

    • “Simply head to the Sportingbet World Cup Portal everyday to see what the latest offer it, can be from match specials, bonuses, Free Bets or 2nd Chance offers.”

    SportingBetSocceroos World Cup Special Offer

    • “Simply have a min $10 bet on the Socceroos in any eligible market, and we will give you a $20 Free Bet each time they advance a stage.”

    SportingBet2010 World Cup 10% Winner’s Bonus

    • “Sportingbet … is offering members a 10% Winners Bonus on selected markets. Simply have a min $10 bet on the selected ‘World Cup Finals Specials’ markets, and if your bet is a winning one, we will give you a bonus 10% on your winnings. “
    • Just remember to adjust your odds accordingly when comparing the specials odds to those of other bookmakers. I.e. you would adjust 1.50 to 1.5×1.1 = 1.65.

    SportingBetSocceroos First Goal Second Chance

    • “Get behind the Socceroos this World Cup, simply have a min $10 bet on an Australian player to be the first goal scorer in any of their matches, and if Australia fails to score a single goal in the match, we will give you a Free Bet. For new Sportingbet members, enter “CUP” when you register and deposit $30 for your $20 World Cup Free Bet.”

    Sports AliveWorld Cup Lucky 100′s

    • “Every 100th World Cup bet daily wins $100 to bet during the World Cup.”
    • They have a maximum bonus of $200 per person. This promotion applies to any World Cup bet. Hmmm. Time to start making a series of $1 bets!

    SportsBetEvery Match Money Back offer

    • “If the last goal is a header, we’ll refund all losing 1st Goal Scorer bets as cash up to $100.”
    • I have no idea how valuable this is. Does anyone have any last goal header statistics?

    SportsBetShare in a $20,000 Bonus this Weekend

    • “Pick the Score Super Bonus: place a Pick the Score wager for $5 or more in any or every match this weekend, if your bet is a Winner, you will share in a weekend $20,000 Free Bet Super Bonus bounty!”
    • In their terms and conditions it says that this promotion applies to 11-14 June

    SportsBetAustralia v Germany Special

    • “If Tim Cahill scores a Goal, but Australia does not win the match against Germany, we will refund ALL losing Head to Head bets (win/draw) as a Free Bet up to $100!”
    • How random! Cahill is in my opinion Australia’s best player. He has scored more goals than any other Australian at the World Cup, so if Australia does manage to score against Germany, the odds are decent that Cahill will be the scorer.
  • General 10.06.2010 1 Comment

    After looking around and not finding what I was looking for, I have created a simple wallchart for the 2010 FIFA World Cup. The wallchart consists of two A4 sheets that you can put on your fridge door or pin board at your office desk. All fixture times are AEST. A start time with a red star means the game will be aired live on SBS Two. The remaining fixtures will be aired live on SBS One. You can view the full SBS schedule, including all replay times, using the following link:
    SBS 2010 FIFA World Cup Schedule (PDF – 120KB).

    Note that the start times listed are the SBS coverage start times. To get the kickoff times, add 30 minutes to the start time. A couple of exceptions to this are the World Cup final and first match between South Africa and Mexico, which will start one hour after the coverage commences.

    Links are provided below for a PDF version and the original Excel file. Screen shots of the wallchart are also provided.

    Please note that I created this primarily for my own use, so you can rely on the dates and times at your own risk! Let me know if there are any errors, and I’ll make an updated version available.

    Version 1.0:
    2010 FIFA World Cup Wallchart (PDF – 41 KB)
    2010 FIFA World Cup Wallchart (Excel – 473 KB)

    Screenshots:

Bet with the Best!
  • I managed to “green up” for the Woman’s title in the 2010 French Open. By this I mean I managed to lock in a profit regardless of the outcome. I’m now on a streak for woman’s tennis. I prefer betting on the woman than the men because I find that woman’s tennis is more unpredictable, so there’s more value in backing the the underdog.

    Like most people though, I never predicted Schiavone would win. Her backer’s would have made a fortune, because even halfway through the tournament you could have got 90-1 on her. I had bet heavily on Stosur to win the tournament using Betfair and Luxbet, so in the tournament final I hedged by bets by backing Schiavone at 5.10 odds. All up I made $150.13 on $76.79 of bets, making a $73.34 profit.

    To elaborate on “greening up”, you can do this by backing an outcome at X odds, and then betting against the outcome for Y odds later, where Y < X. During the tournament I bet on Venus Williams, Stosur, Hantuchova, and Rezai. I was able to make counter bets against everyone except Rezai later on in the tournament to hedge my positions. Below is a screen shot of my position on May 30th. Basically you try to green up by picking people who you think are undervalued and who will progress further in the tournament. For example, I was able to back Hantuchova for 540-1 odds on May 26th, and by May 30th, I could bet against her at 180-1 odds. I plan to see if I can do the same for the 2010 FIFA World Cup. I have enjoyed sustained success with tennis, but have yet to try it with football.

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