AFL Round 6 Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for AFL Round 6 in the 2015 AFL season.

Friday, May 8

Collingwood vs Geelong 7:50PM AEST, MCG

 

The Pies have surprised a few people with their 4-1 start to the season. They have had a relatively easy draw so far, but even so, they’re going along very nicely. This week will be an interesting test for them against the Cats, who are probably a similarly placed middle-range sort of team. Winning games like these is the difference between playing finals and finishing 9th-12th. The Cats did just that last week against the Tigers, but the Pies look to be in better form and should provide a bigger challenge for the new-look Geelong team.

Collingwood had a great ANZAC day win over the Bombers, but other than that one, their wins have been against bottom sides. I’m not convinced that they’re capable of consistently matching better teams, and think the Cats might be just a little too strong.

Special mention to Josh Cowan on his return to AFL footy after almost 4 years out with various injuries. Hope he goes well.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Cats to win @ $2.41 (BetFair)

Saturday, May 9

North Melbourne vs Richmond 1:45PM AEST, Blundstone Arena

 

The Roos got a reality check from the reigning champs last Saturday night, confirming that they’re still a little off the pace of the big premiership contenders. After going down to the wire against Port the previous week, unfortunately they weren’t able to provide the Hawks with the same type of challenge. They’ll be disappointed, but definitely not the first or last team to cop a hiding from the Hawks this year.

The Tigers had their own form of reality check, one that was arguably more stark. They don’t look anything like a finals team at this point of the year. There’s obviously ample time for them to improve and get into some form, but they surely don’t want to be relying on another 10 win streak to get them there.

The Kangaroos are a better team playing better footy and I expect them to win comfortably.

Betting tip: 2 units – Kangaroos to win @ $1.60 (Matchbook)

Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda 2:10PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

The Western Bulldogs are one of the major talking points of the competition at the moment and so they should be. They’re a young team playing an exciting brand of football, and they’re taking it up to some of the best sides in the competition. The win against Sydney was one of their most important wins since going deep into September in 2010.

The Saints also showed a whole lot of courage and determination in their two point loss to the Bombers. They weren’t able to get over the line in the end, but they should be mighty proud of their effort.

You would expect the Dogs to win this game; they’ve been playing some top quality footy and are probably about 2 years further advanced in their rebuild than the Saints. But after a massive win in Sydney, will they be fully focused on the Saints? The young team might still be lapping up their unexpected win and not bring the pressure that has made them so good in the early stages of the year. The Saints are welcoming back Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna which will suddenly make them a much tougher opponent.

I expect the Dogs to win, but don’t think it will come easy.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Dogs by 1-39 @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn 4:35PM AEST, Spotless Stadium

 

The Giants had their first major setback of the year over in Perth last weekend. The Eagles are tough to stop at home once they get going, which the Giants experienced first hand and didn’t have answers for. Hopefully they’ve learnt a few things from the experience, otherwise they might get another hiding from the Hawks.

GWS will be very pleased that some senior Hawks felt like belting the Kangaroos in every sense of the word; Hodge and Lewis are clearly two of the most important Hawks, but they’re such a well drilled team that you just expect their replacements to come in and not miss a beat.

Hawks too good and too strong even without the brain fade brothers (just imagine if Brian Lake had’ve been out there!).

Betting tip: 1 unit – Hawks at the line of -20.5 @ $1.72 (Bet365)

Gold Coast vs Adelaide 5:10PM AEST, Metricon Stadium

 

The Suns finally made their way onto the winners in the QClash last week. It’s hard to read much into it because the Lions are playing absolutely horrid footy, but they did what was needed and got the job done. Unfortunately, a couple of young blokes felt like celebrating the win with a few beers the following day and have subsequently been suspended from this match. They’re already light on for fit players so this wasn’t ideal at all, but they’ve decided on short term pain for potential long term gain.

The Crows will be looking to bounce back from consecutive losses, after sitting perched atop the ladder at the completion of round 3.

I’m tipping a possible blow out at Metricon, I think the undermanned Suns will struggle to contain the Crows.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Crows at the line of -32.5 @ $1.69 (Sportsbet)

Melbourne vs Sydney 7:20PM AEST, MCG

 

The Demons are in the midst of an extreme three week period. Last week they were humbled by the Dockers, this week they’ve got the Swans, and next week, the Hawks. It doesn’t get much tougher than that. Or maybe it does; the Swans are coming off consecutive losses, something that doesn’t happen to them very often. They’ll be fuming after the loss to the Dogs on their home patch, and will be hell bent on a big win this week.

Unfortunately for Melbourne, I think this game might be similar to their loss last week and expect it to be a 10 goal margin.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Swans by 40+ @ $2.45 (William Hill)

Fremantle vs Essendon 8:10PM AEST, Patersons Stadium

 

Wayne Carey reckons the Dockers could beat the Bombers by 100 points on Saturday night. Yes, the Bombers were poor against the Saints, and yes, the Dockers are in a rare vein of form, but there’s just no chance of that happening. The Bombers seem to relish the challenge of going over to Perth and I think they might surprise a few and really challenge Freo.

I expect the Dockers to be too good at home, but wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a close game.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Bombers at the line of +22.5 @ $2.10 (Centrebet)

Sunday, May 10

Carlton vs Brisbane 3:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

There really haven’t been many positives for these sides so far in 2015. But here are two of them for both clubs:

– They couldn’t possibly play any worse

– They have a big chance of a win this week

The Blues were hugely disappointing last Friday night in Mick Malthouse’s record breaking game against Collingwood. They didn’t look interested at all, and their skills were poor. You’ve got to wonder what Bryce Gibbs was doing. As a senior player, as well as their best player from last year, his game was bordering on embarrassing.

The Lions’ season went from bad to worse, going down to the only other winless team, the Suns, by a big margin of 64 points. 

Both teams are struggling in the key position player department. Whoever gets on top in the midfield and provides their forwards with the most clean entries will win.

I’m going with Carlton, mainly because of the home ground advantage.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Blues by 25+ @ $1.85 (Sportsbet)

Port Adelaide vs West Coast 4:40PM AEST, Adelaide Oval

 

Well, after two losses to start the year, the Power well and truly have their top four aspirations back on track. They’ve won three challenging games on the trot, taking care of North, Hawthorn, and now Adelaide. This week should be easier for them, hosting the Eagles at the Adelaide Oval.

This game also provides the Eagles with another chance to dispel the tag of ‘flat track bullies’, which is probably one of the most unwanted labels an AFL team could have. The continued struggle with injuries doesn’t help and I can see Port running rampant over them in the last game of round 6.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Power by 25+ @ $1.67 (Centrebet)

Season Tally

Units Wagered: 20

Units Won: 22.05