Euro 2016 – Preview and Betting Tips

Euro 2016 logo

The following is a team-by-team preview with betting tips for Euro 2016. Tournament winner and top goalscorer futures markets are discussed, along with Group winners. The tournament kicks off with hosts France taking on Romania at 5 AM AEST on Saturday, June 11. The final is on the 11th of July, AEST.

Euro 2016 Wallchart

We’ve created a simple wallchart for the tournament with all fixture times listed in AEST. Links to both PDF and Excel versions are available. The PDF version consists of two A4 sheets.

Euro 2016 Schedule

In Australia beIN Sports on Foxtel will broadcast every fixture live while SBS will broadcast the knockout games live free-to-air along with daily highlights.

For the group stage the three kickoff times in AEST are 11:00 AM, 2:00 AM and 5.00 AM.

View the full tournament schedule

Tournament Format

The 24 teams are split into six groups of four. The top two sides from each group along with the four best 3rd placed sides will advance to the group of 16 based on the following format:

Match 1: Runner-up Group A v Runner-up Group C
Match 2: Winner Group D v 3rd Place Group B/E/F
Match 3: Winner Group B v 3rd Place Group A/C/D
Match 4: Winner Group F v Runner-up Group E
Match 5: Winner Group C v 3rd Place Group A/B/F
Match 6: Winner Group E v Runner-up Group D
Match 7: Winner Group A v 3rd Place Group C/D/E
Match 8: Runner-up Group B v Runner-up Group F

The quarter-final match-ups are:

Quarter-final 1: Winner Match 1 v Winner Match 2
Quarter-final 2: Winner Match 3 v Winner Match 4
Quarter-final 3: Winner Match 5 v Winner Match 6
Quarter-final 4: Winner Match 7 v Winner Match 8

The semi-final match-ups are:

Semi-final 1: Winner Quarter-final 1 v Winner Quarter-final 2
Semi-final 2: Winner Quarter-final 3 v Winner Quarter-final 4

The Euro 2016 final is on July 10 (July 11 AEST). There is no third place fixture for the losing semi-finalists.

(source: Wikipedia)

Euro 2016 Team By Team Previews

While there isn’t get the same disparity in group strengths as the FIFA World Cup, some groups do look tougher than others. Group D looks to be tough, with no easy beats out of the four teams. Group F looks to be the weakest, with none of those four sides bringing particularly strong form into the tournament.

Note that the friendlies records listed below are accurate up until June 6 AEST. A number of teams have played friendlies since. The tournament winner odds have been adjusted for commission, where applicable.

You can view full team-by-team squad lists here.


Group A


France

France

  • Manager: Didier Deschamps
  • Captain: Hugo Lloris
  • FIFA World Ranking: 17
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 7
  • How they qualified: Qualified as the hosts
  • Qualification record: N/A
  • Qualification goals for & against: N/A
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 9-0-1 since September 2015 (view France’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Winners (1984 & 2000)
  • Winner odds: 4.16 (Matchbook)
  • Comments: Deserved favourites given their host status and the fact that they bring a strong run of form into the tournament. Their group consists of three opponents who all finished 2nd in their Euro qualifying groups so they will be odds on to make the Round of 16.

 

Switzerland

Switzerland

  • Manager: Vladimir Petkovic
  • Captain: Stephan Lichsteiner
  • FIFA World Ranking: 15
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 24
  • How they qualified: 2nd in their Group behind England
  • Qualification record: 7-0-3
  • Qualification goals for & against: 24-8
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 2-0-4 (view Switzerland’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Group stage
  • Winner odds: 61.8 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Traditionally a strong team but they do bring indifferent recent form into the tournament. They look much stronger than Romania and Albania, though, so I expect them to make the final 16.

 

Romania

Romania

  • Manager: Anghel Iordanescu
  • Captain: Razvan Rat
  • FIFA World Ranking: 22
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 31
  • How they qualified: 2nd in their Group behind Northern Ireland
  • Qualification record: 5-5-0
  • Qualification goals for & against: 11-2
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 2-3-1 (view Romania’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Quarter-finals (2000)
  • Winner odds: 297.99 (Matchbook)
  • Comments: Will be a tough team to break down. Went undefeated throughout qualifying (in an albeit weak group) and conceded just 2 goals in 10 games. Keep an eye on under 2.5 markets.

 

Albania

Albania

  • Manager: Gianni de Biasi
  • Captain: Lorik Cana
  • FIFA World Ranking: 42
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 57
  • How they qualified: 2nd in their group behind Portugal
  • Qualification record: 4-2-2
  • Qualification goals for & against: 7-5 (ignoring the 3-0 result awarded to them against Serbia)
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 2-2-2 (view Albania’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: This is their first appearance
  • Winner odds: 551.05 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Did well just to qualify for the tournament, beating Portugal away from home along the way, but won’t be considered a big chance of making the final 16.

 


Group B


England

England

  • Manager: Roy Hodgson
  • Captain: Wayne Rooney
  • FIFA World Ranking: 11
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 8
  • How they qualified: 1st in their group with a 100% record, 9 points ahead of Switzerland
  • Qualification record: 10-0-0
  • Qualification goals for & against: 31-3
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 5-0-2 (view England’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Semi-finals (1968 & 1996)
  • Winner odds: 9.55 (Betfair)
  • Comments: England were sublime in qualifying, scoring 3.1 goals per game while conceding just 3 in 10 games. They’ve since beaten France, Germany and Portugal in friendlies, making them good value in the futures market at 9.00+ odds with many bookmakers. They have a number of proven goalscorers to draw upon, so they’re not overly reliant on a key player like some other sides are. England are also in a very winnable Group.

 

Russia

Russia

  • Manager: Leonid Slutsky
  • Captain: Roman Shirokov
  • FIFA World Ranking: 29
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 28
  • How they qualified: 2nd in their group behind Austria
  • Qualification record: 6-2-2
  • Qualification goals for & against: 21-5
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 2-1-3 (view Russia’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Semi-final (2008)
  • Winner odds: 76.05 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Defensively they were strong in qualifying, with only England conceding fewer shots. A reasonable chance of making the final 16, but I don’t see them topping Group B.

 

Slovakia

Slovakia

  • Manager: Jan Kozak
  • Captain: Martin Skrtel
  • FIFA World Ranking: 24
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 26
  • How they qualified: 2nd in their group behind Spain
  • Qualification record: 7-1-2
  • Qualification goals for & against: 17-8
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 4-3-0 (view Slovakia’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: This is their first appearance
  • Winner odds: 152.05 (Betfair)
  • Comments: They have shown their qualifying performance was no fluke, with friendly wins over Switzerland and Germany since. Since November 2013 they boast a 17-4-3 record, so they’re not a team to be taken lightly, despite the fact that they are 150+ odds with bookmakers.

 

Wales

Wales

  • Manager: Chris Coleman
  • Captain: Ashley Williams
  • FIFA World Ranking: 26
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 49
  • How they qualified: 2nd in their group behind Belgium.
  • Qualification record: 6-3-1
  • Qualification goals for & against: 11-4
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 0-1-3 (view Wales’ form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: This is their first appearance
  • Winner odds: 85.55 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Wales have a massive trump card in the name of Gareth Bale, who scored 7 of their 11 goals in qualifying. They will relish the chance to take on England. Wales have only won 1 of their last 7 games, however, so they bring indifferent recent form into the tournament.

 


Group C


Germany

Germany

  • Manager: Joachim Low
  • Captain: Bastian Schweinsteiger
  • FIFA World Ranking: 4
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 2
  • How they qualified: 1st in their group ahead of Poland
  • Qualification record: 7-1-2
  • Qualification goals for & against: 24-9
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 2-0-3 (view Germany’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Winners (1972, 1980, 1996)
  • Winner odds: 5.47 (Betfair)
  • Comments: They bring average recent form into the tournament but Germany boast a fantastic Euro and World Cup finals record and are always a genuine title chance.

 

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland

  • Manager: Michael O’Neill
  • Captain: Steven Danis
  • FIFA World Ranking: 25
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 55
  • How they qualified: 1st in their group ahead of Romania
  • Qualification record: 6-3-1
  • Qualification goals for & against: 16-8
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 3-2-0 (view Northern Ireland’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: This is their first appearance
  • Winner odds: 399.05 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Northern Ireland are the only tournament debutants who won their qualifying group. They bring an 12-game unbeaten streak into the tournament. It’s a great turnaround from a 20-game stretch between 2011 and 2014 when they won just one game. 9 of their 16 goals in qualifying came from set pieces, which is more than any other team.

 

Poland

Poland

  • Manager: Adam Nawalka
  • Captain: Robert Lewondowski
  • FIFA World Ranking: 27
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 25
  • How they qualified: 2nd in their group behind Germany
  • Qualification record: 6-3-1
  • Qualification goals for & against: 33-10
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 4-0-1 (view Poland’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Group stage (2008 & 2012)
  • Winner odds: 47.55 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Scored a whopping 33 goals in qualifying, which is 9 more than Germany managed. Beat Germany 2-0 at home and lost to Germany 1-3 away during the qualifying stage. Will back themselves to make the final 16.

 

Ukraine

Ukraine

  • Manager: Mykhaylo Fomenko
  • Captain: Anatoliy Tymoshchuk
  • FIFA World Ranking: 19
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 16
  • How they qualified: Beat Slovenia in the playoffs after coming 3rd in their group behind Spain and Slovakia.
  • Qualification record: 6-1-3
  • Qualification goals for & against: 14-4
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 4-0-0 (view Ukraine’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Group stage (2012)
  • Winner odds: 95.05 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Only conceded 4 goals in 10 games in a tough qualifying group that contained Spain and Slovakia. Ukraine have been consistently strong in recent years, with a 25-6-4 record since late 2012. They were unlucky to have missed out on the 2014 World Cup after falling just behind England in their qualifying group and losing 2-3 to France in the playoffs.

 


Group D


Croatia

Croatia

  • Manager: Ante Cacic
  • Captain: Darijo Srna
  • FIFA World Ranking: 27
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 18
  • How they qualified: 2nd in their group behind Italy
  • Qualification record: 6-3-1
  • Qualification goals for & against: 20-5
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 4-1-0 (view Croatia’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Quarter-finals (1996 & 2008)
  • Winner odds: 28.71 (Matchbook)
  • Comments: Will be a tough side to crack, having lost only 1 of their last 13 games and 2 of their last 18 since the 2014 World Cup

 

Czech Republic

Czech Republic

  • Manager: Pavel Vrba
  • Captain: Petr Cech
  • FIFA World Ranking: 30
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 32
  • How they qualified: 1st in their group ahead of Iceland
  • Qualification record: 7-1-2
  • Qualification goals for & against: 19-14
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 3-1-3 (view Czech Republic’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Runners-up (1996)
  • Winner odds: 152.05 (Betfair)
  • Comments: The Czech Republic won their qualifying group, but they conceded 14 goals in their process, which is more than any other qualifying side. A strong defence is often the key to winning a title and they’ve only had 1 clean sheet in their last 22 fixtures, which doesn’t bode well. Their solitary clean sheet during that stretch came against Malta, who are ranked 166th in the world.

 

Spain

Spain

  • Manager: Vicente del Bosque
  • Captain: Iker Casillas
  • FIFA World Ranking: 6
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 3
  • How they qualified: 1st in their group ahead of Slovakia
  • Qualification record: 9-0-1
  • Qualification goals for & against: 23-3
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 3-2-0 (view Spain’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Winners (1964, 2008, 2012)
  • Winner odds: 6.53 (Matchbook)
  • Comments: Spain enter the tournament on an 11-game unbeaten streak. They will certainly be one of the teams to beat. They are aiming to win this tournament for the third consecutive time, with no other country having won it twice in a row before.

 

Turkey

Turkey

  • Manager: Fatih Terim
  • Captain: Arda Turan
  • FIFA World Ranking: 18
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 17
  • How they qualified: Qualified as the best 3rd place team. They finished 3rd in their group behind the Czech Republic and Iceland.
  • Qualification record: 5-3-2
  • Qualification goals for & against: 14-9
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 5-1-1 (view Turkey’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Semi-finals (2008)
  • Winner odds: 85.55 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Did well to qualify for the Euro finals for the fourth time in six tournaments, knocking out the Netherlands in the process. They’ve only lost once in their last 16 games, with their solitary loss being a 2-1 friendly defeat against England.

 


Group E


Belgium

Belgium

  • Manager: Marc Wilmots
  • Captain: Vincent Kompany
  • FIFA World Ranking: 2
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 12
  • How they qualified: 1st in their group ahead of Wales.
  • Qualification record: 7-2-1
  • Qualification goals for & against: 24-5
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 2-1-1 (view Belgium’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Runners-up (1980)
  • Winner odds: 11.88 (Matchbook)
  • Comments: Ranked 2nd in the world behind Argentina, Belgium are the highest ranked team in the Euro 2016 tournament. They are unloved by bookmakers, however, with most installing them as the 5th favourite at 11+ odds. With the likes of Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Vincent Kompany, Christian Benteke, Romelu Lukaku and Marouane Fellaini in the squad, they look to be good value in futures markets.

 

Italy

Italy

  • Manager: Antonio Conte
  • Captain: Gianluigi Buffon
  • FIFA World Ranking: 12
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 15
  • How they qualified: 1st in their group ahead of Croatia
  • Qualification record: 7-3-0
  • Qualification goals for & against: 16-7
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 1-2-2 (view Italy’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Winners (1968)
  • Winner odds: 18.81 (Matchbook)
  • Comments: They don’t bring great friendlies form into the tournament but they will have to be respected. They are only one of three teams who went undefeated during the qualifying tournament.

 

Republic of Ireland

Republic of Ireland

  • Manager: Martin O’Neill
  • Captain: Robbie Keane
  • FIFA World Ranking: 33
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 29
  • How they qualified: Beat Bosnia and Herzegovina in the playoffs after coming 3rd in their group behind Germany and Poland.
  • Qualification record: 5-3-2
  • Qualification goals for & against: 19-7
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 1-2-1 (view Republic of Ireland’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Group stage (1988 & 2012)
  • Winner odds: 171.05 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Have drawn a tough group so have the liberty of playing without the burden of expectation. Captain Robbie Keane has been in the squad since 1998. Can he end his international career on a high?

 

Sweden

Sweden

  • Manager: Erik Hamren
  • Captain: Zlatan Ibrahimovic
  • FIFA World Ranking: 35
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 27
  • How they qualified: Beat Denmark in the playoffs after finishing 3rd in their group behind Austria and Russia.
  • Qualification record: 5-3-2
  • Qualification goals for & against: 15-9
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 2-3-1 (view Sweden’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Semi-finals (1992)
  • Winner odds: 133.05 (Betfair)
  • Comments: They don’t have the strongest squad, but when you have Zlatan Ibrahimovic in your team anything can happen. He scored 11 goals during their qualifying campaign.

 


Group F


Austria

Austria

  • Manager: Marcel Koller
  • Captain: Christian Fuchs
  • FIFA World Ranking: 10
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 23
  • How they qualified: 1st in their group ahead of Russia
  • Qualification record: 9-1-0
  • Qualification goals for & against: 22-5
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 2-0-3 (view Austria’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Group stage (2008)
  • Winner odds: 45.65 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Don’t have a strong history at the Euros but this is one of the strongest Austrian teams in a long time. Their lack of tournament experience may hurt them, though.

 

Hungary

Hungary

  • Manager: Bernd Storck
  • Captain: Balazs Dzsudzsak
  • FIFA World Ranking: 20
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 43
  • How they qualified: Beat Norway in the playoffs after finishing 3rd in their group behind Northern Ireland and Romania.
  • Qualification record: 4-4-2
  • Qualification goals for & against: 11-9
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 0-2-1 (view Hungary’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Semi-finals (1964 & 1972)
  • Winner odds: 513.05 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Have a decent record against weaker sides, but you have to go back to 2012 for the last time they beat a side ranked inside the top 20 in the world. They looked pretty weak in their recent friendly against Germany.

 

Iceland

Iceland

  • Manager: Lars Lagerback
  • Captain: Aron Gunnarsson
  • FIFA World Ranking: 34
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 47
  • How they qualified: 2nd in their group behind the Czech Republic.
  • Qualification record: 6-2-2
  • Qualification goals for & against: 17-6
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 2-0-6 (view Iceland’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: This is their first appearance
  • Winner odds: 171.05 (Betfair)
  • Comments: Went through a strong patch of form during qualifying but have been ice cold (pardon the pun) since then. They will have to hope their friendlies form isn’t indicative of how their tournament will go. The good news is they have drawn arguably the easiest group in the tournament.

 

Portugal

Portugal

  • Manager: Fernando Santos
  • Captain: Cristiano Ronaldo
  • FIFA World Ranking: 8
  • ELO Rating World Ranking: 13
  • How they qualified: 1st in their group ahead of Albania.
  • Qualification record: 7-0-1
  • Qualification goals for & against: 11-5
  • Friendlies record since qualifying: 3-0-3 (view Portugal’s form guide)
  • Previous best at Euros: Runners-up (2004)
  • Winner odds: 19.8 (Matchbook)
  • Comments: Cristiano Ronaldo has achieved it all at club level. Can he win a tournament with Portugal after losing in the 2004 final? To date his strike rate for Portugal is not at same the stratospheric levels as his career with Real Madrid. According to Wikipedia he has scored 260 goals in 236 appearances for Real Madrid, compared to 56 goals in 125 appearances for Portugal.

 

Euro 2016 Odds Comparison

Below are links to odds comparisons for the the most popular Euro 2016 betting markets:

Futures Betting Tips

Tournament Winner

Four countries that stand out to me as a good chance of going all the way are France (4.16), England (9.55), Spain (6.53) and Belgium (11.88). I’m also wary of Germany (5.47), who are consistently strong in tournaments.

Of those five sides, they all represent fair value, but Belgium stand out as been particularly strong value given the quality within their squad. England also look worth a punt given their strong qualifying run and form.

If I had to pick a roughie it would be Slovakia, who are worth a shout at 152.05 with Betfair, with a view to lay later if they make the final 16.

Compare the latest futures odds.

Top Goalscorer

Ideally you’re looking for a prolific goalscorer who is on a team with a good chance of going deep into the tournament. Because goals tend to dry up in the knockout stage you also want a player in an easy pool.

The first players who come to mind are Thomas Muller (Germany) at 10.00 odds and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Sweden) at 26.00 odds. Both have been prolific for their countries of late. While Sweden are in a tough group, they do stand a chance of making the playoffs as one of the top 3rd placed sides. Germany are in a tough group but do have a chance of going deep into the tournament. If Poland can go deep then Robert Lewandowski at 12.00 is also a strong chance. These three players were the top goalscorers during the qualifying tournament. Lewandowski, Ibrahimovic and Muller scored 13, 11 and 9 goals, respectively during qualifying (source: Wikipedia).

Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) at 9.00 odds is also worth consideration, particularly because Portugal are in an easy pool.

Other players with a chance but I’m not willing to back are the likes of Wayne Rooney, Harry Kane & Jamie Vardy for England, plus Eden Hazard & Kevin De Bruyne for Belgium. My only concern for these players is they will share the goals equally between them, rather than have one player dominate the score sheet for his country.

Compare the latest top goalscorer odds.

Further Betting Comments And Predictions

Keep an eye on the opponent team goals markets for fixtures involving the Czech Republic, who have only managed to keep one clean sheet in their last 22 fixtures.

I expect France and Switzerland to both qualify out of Group A.

I expect England will top Group B, with Slovakia a good chance of also making the final 16.

In Group C I expect Germany along with Poland and Ukraine to all make the final 16, with Northern Ireland finishing at the bottom of the Group.

I find Group D very difficult to predict. All four sides are capable of making the final 16. As I’ve said before, I have concerns over the Czech Republic’s defensive record, which could cost them. If I had to place a wager on this pool it would be on the Czech Republic to finish last.

I expect Belgium to top Group E.

Group F looks to be the weakest on paper. Portugal and Austria should advance but I don’t see either team winning the tournament.

 

Share this:
Share

 

Post Comment