The following are previews with betting tips for Round 16 of the 2016 AFL season.
View and compare bookmaker odds for this round
View the form guide for this round
Thursday, July 7
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Port Adelaide v Hawthorn7:50PM AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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Last Friday night Port kept their season alive with a 38-point win over the Tigers, and on the following day the Hawks sat back and relaxed, enjoying themselves while claiming top spot on the ladder at the expense of the Swans, who were knocked off by the Dogs at the SCG. This weekend the Power and the Hawks will renew their recent rivalry, which was formed in an epic Preliminary Final encounter in 2014. Since then, the Power have taken it right up to the Hawks and will back themselves to do the same again in this match-up. After all, their slim hopes of September action rely on it, so they should have more than enough motivation. It’s just a question of whether they’re good enough on the night.
The Hawks still aren’t at their best so a Port Adelaide win wouldn’t surprise all that much. Their best is definitely good enough, and they seem to save it for the Hawks. Even if the Hawks do get home I reckon it’ll be close. It should be a ripping game of footy, much better than some of the ‘prime time’ games we had to put up with last weekend.
Betting tip:Â Port Adelaide at the line of +12.5 @ $1.87 (UniBet)
Friday, July 8
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Geelong v Sydney7:50PM AEST, Simonds Stadium |
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As we’ve just touched on, the Swans gave up their hold on top spot in their loss to the Dogs, and are now confronted with a prickly couple of weeks to try to get things back on track. They’ve got the Cats this week and the Hawks the week after. Win at least one of these and they’re still firmly on track for a top four finish. But if they happen to drop both – which is entirely possible considering the calibre of their opposition – then they’re back in the field with a bunch of other clubs, racing to the finish line.
They’ll know they need to get up in one of these crucial battles against fellow top four aspirants, but next week is probably the one they’re more likely to win. The Cats in Geelong will be very difficult. They bring their best against the best, and they’re incredibly well drilled when playing down at Skilled Stadium. They’ve also had two weeks to stew over a disappointing loss to the Saints. The Swans are a good team and will no doubt give it everything they’ve got, but it’s hard to go past the Cats in Geelong.
Betting tip:Â Geelong to win @ $1.47 (Marathon Bet)
Saturday, July 9
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GWS Giants v Collingwood1:40PM AEST, Spotless Stadium |
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For the second week running the Pies managed to win a very ugly game of footy. They’ll bank the four points again and just hope that better form and improved skills are just around the corner. This week they get a crack at the red hot Giants fresh off the bye, and it’s safe to say that if they get up it’ll be much more than just an ugly win. It seems highly unlikely though, considering the way they’ve played recently and how good the Giants have been at home.
And the Giants can’t afford to start slacking off and dropping games they should win after doing the hard work in the first half of the year. A top four finish is theirs to lose considering their easy draw from here on in. I’m sure they’ll have nothing to worry about against the Pies on Saturday afternoon though. It should be another big win for the AFL’s youngest franchise and another step towards a maiden finals berth.
Betting tip:Â Giants by 40+ @ $1.66 (TopSport)
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Gold Coast v Brisbane4:35PM AEST, Metricon Stadium |
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The Suns are without doubt starting to find some solid form, and I’m sure some top eight clubs aren’t really looking forward to taking them on in the back half of the year. The Lions are not one of those top eight clubs of course, but nonetheless they’ll be on high alert due to the form the Suns have shown over the past few weeks.
And if you thought things couldn’t get any worse for the Lions, there’s been talk that other clubs – the Saints in particular – are keen on their skipper Tom Rockliff as a trade target. It’s rare that a club captain requests a trade, but you only need to look back two seasons to the Bulldogs and Ryan Griffen to know that it can happen. It’s improbable, but not an impossibility that he leaves. What the Lions must do to stop players from leaving is to start playing good footy, but unfortunately they just don’t look like it at the moment. Unless there’s been a drastic change over the bye week, they’re in for another drubbing.
Betting tip:Â Gold Coast by 25+ @ $1.61 (LuxBet)
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Western Bulldogs v Richmond7:25PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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Well, that’s Richmond’s season put to bed. The Tigers couldn’t afford to lose to the Power if they were hoping to make a late charge to the finals, but that’s done and dusted now. It was another disappointing showing that just about summed up their year. Now it’s time for them to focus on the future and get some games into the kids.
On the other side of the spectrum, the Dogs had what could become a season defining win against the Swans. There’s been question marks on their ability to win away from Etihad, but for the second year running they managed to pip the Swans at the SCG, which is no mean feat. That win has put them right back in the running for a top four spot; it goes without saying this is a must win for the Dogs.
Now that the year is officially over, hopefully we’ll see the Tigers play with some more daring and freedom, but they’re still light on for depth which should see the Dogs get home fairly comfortably, especially under the roof at Etihad.
Betting tip:Â Western Bulldogs at the line of -22.5 @ $1.63 (William Hill)
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Melbourne v Fremantle7:40PM AEST, TIO Stadium, Darwin |
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The Demons will be disappointed they let the game against the Crows slip; they played well, were in it right to the end and were every chance to steal a big upset win. This week they travel to Darwin to take on the Dockers, knowing that if they play like that again they’ll notch up win number seven.
I’m looking forward to seeing how the Dockers go in the second half of the year. They’re clearly capable of winning another three or four games, but will they actually want that? You wouldn’t think so if it means a considerably worse position in the draft.
Obviously that won’t be on the player’s minds. But what should be on their minds is that fact that these are likely to be Matthew Pavlich’s last handful of AFL matches. Let’s hope he can snag a few and they can get a few wins for him. Are they any chance against the Dees? I wouldn’t think so, but you just never know. Pav might kick eight.
Betting tip:Â Demons to win @ $1.45 (CrownBet)
Sunday, July 10
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Carlton v Adelaide1:10PM AEST, MCG |
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The Crows survived a mini-scare against the Demons on Sunday but did enough in the end to get the four points and keep their mantle as the form side of the competition. This is another game at the MCG that they should win, although we’ve seen that the Blues are capable of pulling off an upset. But it’s highly unlikely they beat the Crows; the long season looks to be catching up with them, and it doesn’t seem like the bye helped all that much.
It’ll probably play out in a similar fashion to the game between the Crows and Dees last week; I don’t expect it to be a big blow out, but the Crows should be able to get up by a comfortable margin in the end. Let’s just hope that Jack Silvagni kicks a goal this week.
Betting tip:Â Adelaide by 25+ @ $1.57 (bet365)
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West Coast v North Melbourne3:20PM AEST, Subiaco Oval |
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This week presents the perfect opportunity for the Eagles to finally take a top eight scalp in their comfort zone, the wide expanses of Domain Stadium. Obviously it won’t change the perception that they can’t win outside of Perth, but they need to start somewhere and a top eight scalp is always important, especially with the ladder the way it is.
The Kangaroos have rapidly lost the advantage they built by winning the first nine games of the year, only enjoying one win in their following five games. It’s crucial that they stop the rot and get back on the winners list, but they’ve got a tough run home. If ninth placed Port Adelaide weren’t so far back it would be conceivable that the Kangaroos could miss the finals altogether. They should be safe though, and a sneaky win in Perth would ensure that. I think they’re probably in for another loss however, the Eagles are rarely beaten at home and you have to be in good form to beat them, which the Kangaroos are not.
Betting tip:Â West Coast to win @ $1.43 (BetFair)
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Essendon v St Kilda4:40PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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After an elating win over the Cats two weeks ago, it was almost inevitable the Saints would struggle to back it up against the Suns. The Suns definitely played well, but St Kilda wouldn’t be too thrilled that the margin ended up being 40 points. On Sunday they return to Melbourne to do battle with the Bombers, who are recovering from another belting, this one at the hands of the Eagles to the tune of 78 points.
The Bombers will be without David Zaharakis and Mark Jamar after a rough week with the MRP. Zaharakis has been one of their best players all year, and they really can’t afford to be losing consistently good players in their current predicament. Either way, it shouldn’t change the result; the Saints would need to be incredibly bad to drop this one.
Betting tip:Â St Kilda at the line of -34.5 @ $1.67 (William Hill)
Best Bets of the Round
Port Adelaide at the line of +12.5 @ $1.87 (UniBet)
Adelaide by 25+ @ $1.57 (bet365)
Season Tally
All Bets:Â Â Â Â +9.98 units
Best Bets:Â Â Â +1.67 units