The following are betting comments for Round 9 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Bournemouth vs Tottenham |
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On a rolling Season basis Spurs are now top of the league (see tables at the back of the guide). They were too short against West Brom last week and the betting markets look to have it about right this week, with a starting price of above 2 against a Bournemouth team that is having a decent run at home this season.
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Swansea vs Watford |
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There are clear indicators that Watford hold all the value in this game. Why ? Well looking at their rolling season records (Swansea at home and Watford away) they have the same points, Watford have played arguably harder opposition (home teams), yet Swansea start this game as favourites. Similar games tell the same story with the away team winning 9 of 20 games, a 45% chance and odds of 2.22, Watford are priced at 3.50.
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Leicester vs Crystal Palace |
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Despite their poor start to the season, Leicester have played well at home and are still sitting top of the home league table (rolling season basis). This forms the basis for Leicester’s value in this game. There are some strong stats in Leicester’s favour in the similar games record where the home team has won an amazing 16 from 20, equivalent in odds of 1.25, clearly much lower than what is on offer
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West Ham vs Sunderland |
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The draw is the standout value bet here according to the stats. With a 25% probability (odds of 4.00), the draw has occured in 13 from 38 league games (34%) and 10 from 27 similar games (37%). We would be pricing the draw in the region of 3.00
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Arsenal vs Middlesbrough |
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With a limited record of games to draw from, this game is best left alone. Arsenal hold no value at 1.31, but you wouldn’t back against them either given their excellent record and form at the moment.
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Burnley vs Everton |
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Everton are too short here. There is a mountain of data supporting backing Burnley in some way. Everton have won only 26% of their away games on a rolling season basis, they are priced at 56%. In similar games the away team has won only 5 from 14 (36%). On the Asian Handicap market the home team has won 72% of points (should be 50%) and Burnley have had 2 decent wins at home this season, including a 2-0 victory against Liverpool.
Despite
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Hull vs Stoke |
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This looks like another messy game between two out of form teams. There are no clear indicators in the match odds market. Perhaps one way to play this would be under 2.5 goals given 66% of the 35 similar games ended below 2.5. This is supported by the most popular scorelines featuring these two teams of 1-0, 0-0 and 0-1.
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Liverpool vs West Brom |
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Another opportunity to bet against Liverpool with the betting markets treating them like a consistent top team, which they aren’t. The most compelling argument in this set of stats has to be the Asian Handicap analysis which is based on similar games. Of the 24 games played featuring either Liverpool or West Brom, 19 have seen the away team win, draw or lose by only 1. That’s 83% of points in a market that is supposed to be evenly priced.
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Man City vs Southampton |
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As you’d expect some value on Southampton here. It would be hard to bet against Man City at home, the Asian Handicap market is showing no indications for either team and Man City are priced right when looking at similar games. Don’t forget that Man City were well beaten by Barcelona in the Champions League midweek, so this may have some bearing on how this match plays out.
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Chelsea vs Man United |
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The big game of the weekend, lets hope its not as boring as last weeks big game (Liverpool v Man United). There are mixed signals from the stats and as posted last week, these games could really go either way. Some value looking at Chelsea on the Asian Handicaps with -0.25 goals start but nothing to get too excited about.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.