The following is a preview with betting tips for the 2017 Big Bash League (BBL06) final between the Perth Scorchers and the Sydney Sixers. View the Match Centre for this fixture.
BBL Finals History
The Perth Scorchers are aiming to be the first top seed to win the Big Bash League when they take on the 3rd seeded Sydney Sixers. Incredibly, this is Perth’s fifth final in six years of the BBL. This is also the third time that the BBL final features the Scorchers vs. the Sixers in the final.
2011/12 – the 3rd seeded Sydney Sixers defeated the 1st seeded Perth Scorchers in Perth
2012/13 – the 4th seeded Brisbane Heat defeated the 2nd seeded Perth Scorchers in Perth
2013/14 – the 3rd seeded Perth Scorchers defeated the 4th seeded Hobart Hurricanes in Canberra
2014/15 – the 2nd seeded Perth Scorchers defeated the 4th seeded Sydney Sixers in Canberra
2015/16 – the 4th seeded Sydney Thunder defeated the 2nd seeded Melbourne Stars in Melbourne
Perth Scorchers
The Scorchers finished the season as the 1st seed with a 5-3 record. They were one of three sides to finish with a 5-3 record but topped the overall standings courtesy of their strong +0.618 net run rate. Their season results were as follows:
Game 1 – WACA – Adelaide Strikers won the toss and elected to field
Perth Scorchers 7/197 (20 overs) – Ian Bell 61 off 42
Adelaide Strikers 9/149 (20 overs)
Perth Scorchers won by 48 runs
Game 2 – SCG – Perth Scorchers won the toss and elected to bat
Perth Scorchers 8/130 (20 overs) – Mitchell Marsh 31* off 29
Sydney Sixers 4/132 (18 overs)
Sydney Sixers won by 6 wickets
Game 3 – Etihad Stadium – Perth Scorchers won the toss and elected to field
Melbourne Renegades 8/148 (20 overs)
Perth Scorchers 6/152 (20 overs) – Michael Klinger 72 off 55
Perth Scorchers won by 4 wickets
Game 4 – WACA – Sydney Thunder won the toss and elected to field
Perth Scorchers 4/177 (20 overs) – Ian Bell 45 off 38
Sydney Thunder 8/127 (20 overs)
Perth Scorchers won by 50 runs
Game 5 – WACA – Perth Scorchers won the toss and elected to bat
Perth Scorchers 6/173 (20 overs) – Mitchell Marsh 70 off 41
Brisbane Heat 1/174 (14.4 overs)
Brisbane Heat won by 9 wickets
Game 6 – The Gabba – Brisbane Heat won the toss and elected to field
Perth Scorchers 5/156 (20 overs) – Michael Klinger 81 off 54
Brisbane Heat 129 (19.2 overs)
Perth Scorchers won by 27 runs
Game 7 – WACA – Perth Scorchers won the toss and elected to bat
Perth Scorchers 7/134 (20 overs) – Andrew Tye 42 off 33
Melbourne Stars 3/137 (17.2 overs)
Melbourne Stars won by 7 wickets
Game 8 – Blundstone Arena – Perth Scorchers won the toss and elected to field
Hobart Hurricanes 6/134 (20 overs)
Perth Scorchers 3/135 (13.5 overs) – Shaun Marsh 57 off 34
Perth Scorchers won by 7 wickets
Semi-final – WACA – Perth Scorchers won the toss and elected to field
Melbourne Stars 8/136 (20 overs)
Perth Scorchers 3/139 (16.5 overs) – Shaun Marsh 56* off 44
Perth Scorchers won by 7 wickets
When batting first this season the Perth Scorchers had a 3-3 record
When batting second this season the Perth Scorchers had a 3-0 record
Sydney Sixers
The Sixers finished the season as the 3rd seed wit ha 5-3 record. They were one of three sides to finish with a 5-3 record but placed 3rd due to their poor -0.848 net run rate. Their season results were as follows:
Game 1 – Spotless Stadium – Sydney Sixers won the toss and elected to field
Sydney Thunder 8/159 (20 overs)
Sydney Sixers 1/160 (18 overs) – Moises Henriques 76* off 41
Sydney Sixers won by 9 wickets
Game 2 – SCG – Sydney Sixers won the toss and elected to field
Hobart Hurricanes 6/200 (20 overs)
Sydney Sixers 140 (16.2 overs) – Sam Billings 42 off 33
Hobart Hurricanes won by 60 runs
Game 3 – SCG – Perth Scorchers won the toss and elected to bat
Perth Scorchers 8/130 (20 overs)
Sydney Sixers 4/132 (18 overs) – Sam Billings 40 off 30
Sydney Sixers won by 6 wickets
Game 4 – Adelaide Oval – Sydney Sixers won the toss and elected to field
Adelaide Strikers 9/152 (20 overs)
Sydney Sixers 104 (18.2 overs) – Sam Billings 40 off 30
Adelaide Strikers won by 48 runs
Game 5 – The Gabba – Sydney Sixers won the toss and elected to field
Brisbane Heat 6/186 (20 overs)
Sydney Sixers 7/191 (19.4 overs) – Daniel Hughes 85 off 55
Sydney Sixers won by 3 wickets
Game 6 – SCG – Melbourne Renegades won the toss and elected to bat
Melbourne Renegades 6/170 (20 overs)
Sydney Sixers 4/171 (19.3 overs) – Daniel Hughes 41 off 29
Sydney Sixers won by 6 wickets
Game 7 – SCG – Sydney Sixers won the toss and elected to bat
Sydney Sixers 9/99 (20 overs) – Daniel Hughes 20 off 19
Sydney Thunders 2/100 (10 overs)
Sydney Thunder won by 8 wickets
Game 8 – MCG – Sydney Sixers won the toss and elected to field
Melbourne Stars 8/156 (20 overs)
Sydney Sixers 7/160 (19 overs) – Daniel Hughes 34 off 33
Sydney Sixers won by 3 wickets
Semi-finals – The Gabba – Sydney Sixers won the toss and elected to field
Brisbane Heat 9/167 (20 overs)
Sydney Sixers 8/167 (20 overs) – Moises Henriques 64 off 34
Sydney Sixers won in the Super Over
When batting first this season the Sydney Sixers had a 0-1 record
When batting second this season the Sydney Sixers had a 6-2 record
Game Preview
The Perth Scorchers cruised into the final courtesy of a 3/3 performance from Mitchell Johnson, who took the wickets of both opening batsman in the first over along with Kevin Pietersen in the 4th over. They will be without the services of Shaun Marsh after we was selected for the Australian ODI series in New Zealand. Shaun was their top scorer in their last two games so Ian Bell and Michael Klinger will have an important role to play with the bat.
The Sydney Sixers made a shambles of their run chase against the Brisbane Heat in their semi final once Moises Henriques got out, but they managed to force a Super Over in which Moises Henriques blasted them to victory. The Sixers will be without the services of Kiwi Colin Munro, who was selected for the NZ v Australia ODI series. The Sixers do retain the services of Nathan Lyon, however, along with Daniel Hughes and Moises Henriques.
A lot will come down to the toss, with the Scorchers boasting a 3-0 record when batting second compared to 3-3 batting first. The Sixers also prefer to bat second, with a 6-2 record this season when fielding first. Spanning back to last season the Sixers have only won one of their last six when batting first.
In head-to-heads, the Sixers have won only one of their last seven matches against the Scorchers, however that one victory occurred in their last meeting at the SCG.
The Sixers certainly won’t mind playing this game on the road, where they have a 19-9 record, compared to 11-14 at home. The Sixers have won 4 of their last 5 away games. The Sixers have been a bit hot and cold this season, however. They beat the Thunder by 9 wickets in week 1 only to lose to the same side by 8 wickets after being bundled out for 99 runs in week 7.
Based on Elo ratings when you reset the data for this season there is nothing to separate the two sides, with Sydney rated at 1,594.49 and the Scorchers rated at 1,590.14.
Betting Tips
Head to head
At the time of writing the highest available odds on Perth were 1.80 with bet365, while the best odds on Sydney were 2.17 at Pinnacle. Click here to compare the latest bookmaker odds.
Given the fact that both sides have superior records when batting second, I would wait for the result of the toss before wagering on the head-to-head outcome. Following the toss I would simply back the team that bats second. The forecast is for a hot and sunny day on Saturday so it looks like rain shouldn’t be a factor.
Total 4s & 6s
At the WACA this season there have been 24 4s and 12 6s on average per game, with medians of 22 and 11, respectively. If you ignore that epic Chris Lynn innings for the Brisbane Heat, however, the average number of sixes drops from 12 to 10.
For Perth Scorchers games this season there have been 24 4s and 9 6s on average per game, with medians of 25 and 8, respectively. If you ignore that epic Chris Lynn innings for the Brisbane Heat, however, the average number of sixes drops from 9 to 8.
For Sydney Sixers games this season there have been 25 4s and 9 6s on average per game, with medians of 28 and 10, respectively. Interestingly, however, since the departure of Englishman Sam Billings, the Sixers’ matches have averaged 26 4s and just 6 6s per game in their last four matches.
At the time of writing most bookmakers have set the over/under levels at 24.5 for fours and 10.5 for sixes. I’m on the fence over whether to take over/under 24.5 fours because Sydney Sixers matches have averaged 25 4s while Perth Scorchers matches have averaged 24. The average at the WACA is 24 fours, so I will sit this market out. As for over/under 10.5 sixes, 3 out of the 5 matches at the WACA have gone over 10.5 this season, however the Sixers’ last four matches have all gone under 10.5 and the last time these two sides met only 2 sixes were hit in the entire match. I will stay clear of the over/under 10.5 market, however Betfair has a three-way “Total Sixes” market with the following selections:
9 and under: 2.08
10-13: 3.20
14 and over: 3.25
I would lay (bet against) the 14 and over mark because only one Sixers game and one Scorchers game has gone over 13 sixes this season. Both of those fixtures featured the batting-dominant and bowling-deficient Brisbane Heat. If liquidity is poor, you can instead bet 6 units on 9 and under and 4 units on 10-13.
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