2017 State of Origin Game 3 – QLD v NSW – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 3 of the 2017 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions are also listed for those who live outside NSW.

Last year Queensland won the series for the 10th time in 11 years. New South Wales won Game 1 in Brisbane comfortably only to cough up a handy lead and lose Game 2 in Sydney, so the 2017 series is still on the line going into Game 3.

2017 State of Origin Schedule

Each game is televised on Channel Nine.

Game 1 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Wednesday, 31 May 2017, 8:15 PM AEST
Referees: Matt Cecchin, Gerard Sutton
Queensland 4 – 28 New South Wales
Halftime score: QLD 4 – 12 NSW
QLD tries: Corey Oates (35′)
QLD goals: Cameron Smith 0/1
NSW tries: (6′) James Maloney, (40′) Mitchell Pearce, (52′) James Tedesco, (55′) Andrew Fifita, (60′) Jarryd Hayne
NSW goals: 4/5 James Maloney
Man of the Match: Andrew Fifita (NSW)

Game 2 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
Wednesday, 21 June 2017, 8:15 PM AEST
Matt Cecchin, Gerard Sutton
New South Wales 16-18 Queensland
Halftime score: NSW 16 – 6 QLD
NSW tries: Jarryd Hayne (14′), Brett Morris (24′), Mitchell Pearce (27′)
NSW goals: James Maloney 2/3
QLD tries: (9′) Valentine Holmes, Dane Gagai (53′, 77′)
QLD goals: 3/3 Johnathan Thurston

Game 3 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Wednesday, 12 July 2017, 8:15 PM AEST

Recent State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Year Winner W L D Game 1 Game 2 Game 3
2000 NSW 3 0 0 NSW 20-16 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 10-28 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 56-6 QLD
(Sydney)
2001 QLD 2 1 0 QLD 34-16 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 26-8 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 40-14 NSW
(Brisbane)
2002 QLD 1 1 1 NSW 32-4 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 26-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-18 QLD
(Sydney)
2003 NSW 2 1 0 QLD 12-25 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 27-4 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 36-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
2004 NSW 2 1 0 NSW 9-8 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 22-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 34-16 QLD
(Sydney)
2005 NSW 2 1 0 QLD 24-20 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 32-22 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 10-32 NSW
(Brisbane)
2006 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 17-16 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 30-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 14-16 QLD
(Melbourne)
2007 QLD 2 1 0 QLD 25-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 6-10 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 4-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
2008 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 18-10 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 30-0 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 10-16 QLD
(Sydney)
2009 QLD 2 1 0 QLD 28-18 NSW
(Melbourne)
NSW 14-24 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 16-28 NSW
(Brisbane)
2010 QLD 3 0 0 NSW 24-28 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 34-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-23 QLD
(Sydney)
2011 QLD 2 1 0 QLD 16-12 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-8 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 34-24 NSW
(Brisbane)
2012 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 10-18 QLD
(Melbourne)
NSW 16-12 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 21-20 NSW
(Brisbane)
2013 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 14-6 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 26-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 10-12 QLD
(Sydney)
2014 NSW 2 1 0 QLD 8-12 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 6-4 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 32-8 NSW
(Brisbane)
2015 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 10-11 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 18-26 NSW
(Melbourne)
QLD 52-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
2016 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 4-6 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 26-16 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-14 QLD
(Sydney)
2017         QLD 4-28 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 16-18 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD vs. NSW
(Brisbane)

 

While neither team has managed to win at home this series, home advantage has been historically important, with New South Wales holding a 15-1-9 record in Sydney while Queensland are 17-7 in Brisbane since 2000. Queensland have won eight of their last ten at Suncorp Stadium.

2017 State of Origin Game 3 Squads

(source: Wikipedia)

Queensland

1. Billy Slater, 2. Valentine Holmes, 3 Will Chambers, 4. Michael Morgan, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Dylan Napa, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Jarrod Wallace, 11. Gavin Cooper, 12. Matt Gillett, 13. Josh McGuire

Interchange: 14. Ben Hunt, 15. Coen Hess, 16. Josh Papalii, 17. Tim Glasby
18th man: Felise Kaufusi

Queensland have made two injury-enforced changes to the squad that won Game 2. Cameron Munster will make his State of Origin debut at five-eighth in place of the injured Johnathan Thurston and Anthony Milford. This gives the side a notable Melbourne Storm feel to it, with Melbourne teammates Billy Slater starting at fullback, Cooper Cronk starting at halfback and Cameron Smith starting hooker, plus Felise Kaufusi has been named as the 18th man. This will be the first time since 1996 that the Maroons have used three different five-eighths during a series and the first time Queensland have never handed an Origin debut to a half in the third game of a series since the series expanded to three games in 1982.

Darius Boyd is out with a broken thumb so Michael Morgan has been promoted from the bench to make his first Origin start at centre, while Ben Hunt is poised to make his debut from the bench.

The lingering question is who will actually play at 6, Munster or Morgan?

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco, 2. Brett Morris, 3. Josh Dugan, 4. Jarryd Hayne, 5. Blake Ferguson, 6. James Maloney, 7. Mitchell Pearce, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Nathan Peats, 10. Andrew Fifita, 11. Boyd Cordner (c), 12. Josh Jackson, 13. Tyson Frizell

Interchange: 14. David Klemmer, 15. Wade Graham, 16. Jake Trbojevic, 17. Jack Bird
18th man: Matt Moylan
19th man: Jack De Belin
20th man: Tom Trbojevic

New South Wales have named the same starting side and interchange as Games 1 and 2. This is despite the fact that captain Boyd Cordner (calf) and Tyson Frizell (ribs) are under an injury cloud. These injury concerns have made the absence of Luke Lewis a talking point.

Suncorp stadium history

Fixtures at Suncorp Stadium Stadium tend to have higher total scores and wider winning margins than at ANZ Stadium. Since 2000, the average total score is 39.9 in Brisbane compared to 31.7 in Sydney. During this time, 10 games were won by 1-12 points and 14 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, only 5 out of 25 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney.

Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 17 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less, compared to eight 1-12 results and nine 13+ results in Brisbane.

Weather forecast

Brisbane has had a fair bit of rain recently, but the forecast between now and Wednesday looks pretty dry. There is a possibility of some light rain on Monday evening and Tuesday morning. View the Brisbane weather forecast.

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section. Game 3 odds and markets can be viewed here.

Head-to-head and line betting

At the time of writing the best odds for Queensland were 2.15 (Unibet) while the best odds for New South Wales were 1.80 (bet365).

The Blues won Game 1 comfortably and were in a commanding position in Game 2 before some silly errors allowed Queensland to get back into the game. With Thurston out and the NSW forwards looking to reassert the ascendancy they showed in Game 1, I would back the Blues in the head-to-head at 1.80 (bet365).

Given the line is only -1.5 and Suncorp Stadium has had nine 13+ margins in the last 17 fixtures, I would also be inclined to take the Blues -1.5 at 1.90 (Mad Bookie), however I prefer the head-to-head selection due to the lower bookmaker margin.

Over/under btting

Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 30.5 or 31.5.

Fixtures in Brisbane have had much higher total scores than in Sydney, with an average score of 37.9 at Suncorp Stadium since 2007, compared to 26.9 at ANZ Stadium.

Since 2000, the average Game 3 score in Brisbane has been 44.6 which is much higher than average. Strangely, for Game 3’s played in Brisbane when the series is on the line, the average total score is even higher at 50.6 points.

Based on these trends I recommend taking over 30.5 points at 1.91 (Ladbrokes).

Exacta and quinella markets for first & second try scorer

For those who enjoy high odds wagering, Sportsbet is offering exacta and quinella markets for the first and second try scorers in the State of Origin.

An exacta wager is a bet on the first and second try scorers in correct order. A quinella wager is a bet on the first two try scorers in either order. Note that the first and second try scorers could be the same person.

To view the markets, go to the Sportsbet State of Origin page, click on the upcoming fixture, then scroll down and expand the ‘Player Markets’ tab.

We published an article on this market ahead of Game 2 and established that the best players to included in exacta and quinella wagers are QLD wingers (Valentine Holmes and Dane Gagai) and NSW centres (Josh Dugan and Jarryd Hayne). Based on recent form I recommend combinations using Valentine Holmes, Dane Gagai and Jarryd Hayne. The quinella odds for these selections are:

Hayne / Gagai – 81.00
Hayne / Holmes – 81.00
Gagai / Holmes – 71.00
Hayne / Hayne – 151.00
Gagai / Gagai – 151.00
Holmes / Holmes – 176.00

Other Markets

You can use the odds comparison tool to compare odds for the following popular player markets:

  • Man of the match – shortest is Cameron Smith at 8.00, followed by James Tedesco.
  • Anytime try scorer – shortest is Brett Morris at 2.75, followed by Blake Ferguson.
  • First try scorer – shortest is Brett Morris at 12.00, followed by Blake Ferguson
  • Last tryscorer – shortest is Brett Morris at 12.00, followed by Blake Ferguson

2017 State of Origin – Game 3 Bookmaker Promotions

Below is a selection of bookmaker promotions for 2017 State of Origin Game 3. You can view all active promotions in the Bookmaker Promotions section.

IMPORTANT NOTICE FOR NSW RESIDENTS: as of January, 2016, NSW Regulation prohibits the publishing of any betting promotions in New South Wales.

Based on your IP address it appears you are not in New South Wales so we can display the following betting promotions. Please note that if you are in fact residing in NSW then there is a chance that the following promotions are not available to you.

TopBetta

State of Origin 3 – 7.00 odds on Queensland (new members only)
(Expires Wed, 12 Jul 2017)

Back Queensland to win State of Origin Game 3 in the match result market and if they win, TopBetta will pay you out as the winner and credit your account in additional bonus bets up to a 7.00 dividend! Available to new customers having their first bet with TopBetta only. Max bet for $7.00 dividend is $25. Example: Place $25 on QLD at current odds of 2.08 and you will receive $52 back to your account balance and $123 in bonus bets. Only available to residents of QLD, ACT, NT, TAS. TCs Apply. Clients who have accepted a deposit bonus are not eligible. Maximum bonus amount achievable is $150. Only single bets are eligible.

Betstar

State of Origin 3 – Automatic payout as winner if lead by 8 or more points
(Expires Wed, 12 Jul 2017)

If your team leads by 8 or more points at any time during State of Origin 3, you'll be paid out as a winner on your first head-to-head bet.

BlueBet

State of Origin 3 – Refund if Lose by 6 Or Less
(Expires Wed, 12 Jul 2017)

Place a bet in the head to head market in Origin III and your team loses by 6 points or less, BlueBet will refund your bet up to $50. This offer is not available to residents of NSW and SA. The refund applies only to the first head to head bet in State of Origin Game 3. Offer applies to pre-game single bets only. Multi bets, live bets and bets made by telephone are ineligible. Bets placed using free bets or bonus bets are ineligible for the offer.

Bookmaker.com.au

State of Origin 3 – Automatic payout as winner if lead by 8 or more points
(Expires Wed, 12 Jul 2017)

If your team leads by 8 or more points at any time during State of Origin 3, you'll be paid out as a winner on your first head-to-head bet.

CrownBet

2017 State of Origin Tipping Competition
(Expires Wed, 12 Jul 2017)

CrownBet has launched a free "King of Origin" tipping competition. It is free to enter and there are $5,000 worth of Crown Rewards points up for grabs for each Origin Test. No deposit is required to play. To participate, you make picks for the following categories:
– the winning team
– most tackles
– most fantasy points
– first player to reach 100 meters
For each category you are given two selections to choose from. You simply have to pick the most likely winner. The competition runs over three stages in line with the NRL State of Origin Series. Learn more.

Ladbrokes

State of Origin 3 – Automatic payout as winner if lead by 8 or more points
(Expires Wed, 12 Jul 2017)

If your team leads by 8 or more points at any time during State of Origin 3, you'll be paid out as a winner on your first head-to-head bet.

Palmerbet

State of Origin 3 – Bonus bet if lead at 60-minute mark but lose
(Expires Wed, 12 Jul 2017)

Place a head-to-head bet on State of Origin Game 3 and if your team is leading at the 60-minute mark but goes on to lose, receive a bonus bet equal to your stake up to $100. This promotion excludes residents of SA and WA. No MultiBets will be eligible for this promotion. Bonus Money bets are not eligible to receive this promotion.

Sportsbet

State of Origin 3 – Same-game multi bonus bet refunds
(Expires Wed, 12 Jul 2017)

Place a 3-leg or more same-game multi on State of Origin Game 3 and if only one leg fails, receive a bonus bet equal to your stake up to $50. Minimum total odds of the Same Game Multi must be 2.00. This offer excludes residents of NSW, SA, & WA. Only your first 3+ leg Same Game Multi placed on State of Origin Game 3 will be deemed eligible for this offer. Bonus Bets placed are excluded from the Offer. Telephone bets and Live Bets are ineligible for the offer.

Sportsbet

State of Origin 3 – 50% bonus on H2H winnings
(Expires Wed, 12 Jul 2017)

Place a head-to-head bet on State of Origin 3 and if your bet wins, you will receive a 50% boost on your winnings up to $50 as bonus bets. This offer excludes NSW, SA & WA residents. Bets place using Bonus Bets will be ineligible for this offer. Multibets, Cashed Out bets and Live betting are excluded from the Offer.

TopBetta

State of Origin 3 – Bonus bet if lead by 8 points but go on to lose
(Expires Wed, 12 Jul 2017)

Back either team to win Game 3 State of Origin in the Match result (Draw no bet inc. overtime) market and if your team lead by more than 8 points at any stage but lose, TopBetta will give your money back in bonus bets up $50. TCs Apply. Cannot be used as part of a Multi. Wagers placed with Bonus Bet money will be ineligible for this offer.

 

 

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