The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Oaks Day this Thursday, November 9. The emphasis is on Flemington. Hawkesbury, Pakenham and Warrnambool are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Flemington Race 6: No.2 Ball Of Muscle
Race 1: 14. Linguist
Race 2: 2. Von Tunzelman
Race 3: 1. Onerous – BEST BET – 4 stars
Race 4: 2. Night’s Watch
Race 5: 1. Ulmann
Race 6: 2. Ball Of Muscle – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 7: 2. Sambro – BEST BET – 4 stars
Race 8: 2. Luvaluva – BEST BET – 3 stars
Race 9: 5. Demerara
Race 8 – Kennedy Oaks – top 5:
1 – Luvaluva
2 – Aloisia
3 – Pinot
4 – Reliable Dame
5 – Hiyaam
Quaddie: 2 / 1,2,6 / 1,2 / 1,2,4,5,6,7
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #6 Fastnet Tempest; #5 Hellova Street
NOTE: Fastnet Tempest has since been scratched
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #1 Aloisia
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #3 Split Lip; #6 I Am Excited
BACK (WIN) Debonairly >$4.60 – Stake 0.9% of your total bank.
BEST: Aloisia, Pinot, Hiyaam
VALUE: Reliable Dame
Race 1: 1, 8, 14, 16
Race 2: 4, 5, 7, 9
Race 3: 5, 10, 11
Race 4: 2, 9, 10, 17
Race 5: 2, 5, 9, 10
Race 6: 2, 3, 5, 7
Race 7: 2, 6, 9, 15
Race 8: 1, 2, 4, 6
Race 9: 1, 4, 5, 7
Expecting a genuine speed from the likes of 9,11,14 & 2 with 2,3,7,13,17 capable of racing handily. SO SPLENDID looks to have had the right preparation for a Cup Carnival race over 1700m. With a genuine tempo up front she’ll be one of the strongest closers. The 3yo SWORN EVIDENCE comes through a fast and strong 3yo fillies race. If she copes with 1700m she will run well. BEERZATBERNZ comes through the same race a chance as well. HISTORY REPEATS should be better suited back to a BM70. ROYAL STAMP won very well last time. With Blake Shinn aboard she should be charging. Hopes to 8,9,14 and 17.
Selections 10, 16, 11, 18
Not huge speed on paper. Odeon might take it up. Any of 3,5,6 and perhaps 10 can be handy. The imported 5yo MR GARCIA might be the key to this race. His close and 1st up 5th at York last prep behind Ballet Concerto looks a strong form-line. That horse won two G3 races after that including a victory over the Group 1 competitive horse Kaspersky. SHARDS has a strong light-weight hope. In his 3yo year he split Jameka and Tarzino in the Vase at MV. He might be finding his way back. ODEON can go on after his Caulfield win. He could get a soft run on speed. VON TUNZELMAN looks suited to 2000m now.
Selections 3, 12, 2
The potential is there for a strong speed via numbers 10,11,12 and 2 while 5 and 9 won’t be far away. Not many can’t win. The Queenslander TIME TO TORQUE was such an impressive winner 2nd up he is hard to ignore. The horse he defeated won at Rosehill subsequently. SILVERA comes back to 1400m. If they run along and he gets a quiet ride he’ll be charging. URBAN RULER won okay 1st up. He’s better placed at 1400m and seems drawn for a good run. BORD DE GAIN had no luck at Geelong. He’ll be fitter and gets down in the weights. Concede hopes to CHALK, HARBOUR GREY and POWERLINE.
Selections 3, 6, 5, 11
Plenty of on pace runners here to keep things lively. 1,3,5,9 & 16 are usually forward and 4,7,11 & 18 won’t be far away. If the tempo is strong then NIGHT’S WATCH’s wide draw might not be so much of a problem. That was a strong win at Bendigo and that was as straight as he’s gone this prep. 1600m on the spacious track will suit him. EMOJI’s effort at Geelong was enormous. He raced 4 wide throughout. Gate one today! AURUM SPIRIT probably won’t make it but he is a must if he does. Firmer ground will suit and this is the type of race he can bob up in. TRANQUIL MISS and MANDALAY BAY next best.
Selections 2, 3, 20
Good race. 5 the likely leader then plenty looking for spots behind. Expect another genuine tempo. ECHO EFFECT looks one of the better chances. His run at Caulfield was very good when forced to make a midrace move. Eckstein came out of that race all but winning the Gr 1 Myer on Saturday. ULMANN won that race with a better trail but won’t be leaving him out. He’ll improve again off that 2nd up run. HELLOVA STREET is well suited now out to 1400m and he’ll give them something to chase. FASTNET TEMPEST was very good at Sale. He comes back to 1400m but gets blinkers. 2 and 4 next best.
Selections 9, 1, 5
The obvious is BALL OF MUSCLE. On the handicapping ratings he’s superbly weighted for a 104 rater. I’M TELLING YA is a 72 rater with the same weight. He’s had two starts here and performed well both times. His form this preparation around In Her Time and Redzel is the best form. The negative…no wins since May 2015 but most of his racing since then has been in Group races. BADAJOZ didn’t have the best run at MV. He’ll be better suited to the straight 1000m. One of SHAF’s career best wins was here at 1000m. Can THE QUARTERBACK can bounce back? MILE HIGH next.
Selections 2, 3, 4, 1
If SKY BOY has any luck at all from his wide draw, he’s going to be hard to beat. Concede SAMBRO just had his measure at Randwick October 21 but he was just 2nd up while SAMBRO was 4th run in. SKY BOY chased well in that race and went right on with it last start. He defeated Red Zephyr in that race and that ties us in nicely to SWEET VICTORY who looks an impressive filly. She was just no match for that horse at Kembla before a brilliant win last time. SAMBRO and IRISH VEGA are right in the game after their great runs Saturday in the Carbine. SAVAHEAT & PAGEANTRY have claims.
Selections 5, 15, 2, 6
PINOT is the likely leader. ALOISIA rode a solid speed in the Vase at MV so doubt she’s far away. HIYAAM and RIMRAAM are likely to be close by. ALOISIA looks a star. If you needed any more convincing about how good that MV win was, Pissaro (beaten 9.4L) and Wolfe Tone (beaten 10.8L) finished 4th and 7th respectively in the Derby 3 to 4 length from the winner. PINOT won’t be any easy beat. She did it tough early in the Ethereal beating home RIMRAAM and HIYAAM. All honours were to her. LUVALUVA overcame the slow tempo to win the Wakeful. RELIABLE DAME will stay and looks a first four chance.
Selections 1, 4, 2, 6
Good race with a strong speed likely. Concede good chances here to the top seven and WRAPSODY. SMART COUPE ran well 1st up behind two smart colts. Her debut win over Fox Swift is the form that ties her in strongly with a few of these fillies. DEBONAIRLY has trialled well for her return. If we are looking for them out wide then SPLIT LIP, DEMERARA and I AM EXCITED could be the three. The latter’s 3rd behind Formality in the Furious is the right form. 1600m back to 1100m in 6 weeks is the challenge. JORDA had no luck on Cox Plate Day behind BLONDIE and DEMERARA. Show Less
Selections 7, 1, 6, 5
SWORN EVIDENCE Geelong winner three runs back and ran fifth last start at Caulfield beaten just over two-lengths doing her best work late. The trip suits and should prove tough to beat. LINGUIST Led all the way to win last start at Ballarat. Will be on speed again and goes in all the exotics. I’M A PRINCESS Has won at Balaklava and placed once this campaign. Expect to lead. Jamie Kah and Tony McEvoy are a proven combination. At least a place chance here. THAT RINGS A BELL Looking for a hatrick after winning two in a row at Bendigo and has the speed to overcome a very wide draw. Commands respect.
CARRAIG AONAIR Is racing well and chasing back to back wins after a Moonee Valley win last start. Will need some luck from the wide gate but if it comes will be in the finish again. HOGMANAY Has been placed three from five in Sydney this campaign. Down significantly in weight and is a serious player with the Chris Waller polish. EBEDIYIN Was a winner at Moonee Valley three back and placed last two. The trip suits but the barrier no help. SOUCHEZ Finished strongly to end up midfield last start at Randwick and up in journey. Regarded as a strong finisher. Genuine contender.
BORD DE GAIN Was always wide at Geelong last start so the effort can be forgiven. Stays under notice on Flemington third resuming two runs back and can bounce back. CHALK Is racing well winning at Randwick before placing at the same track last start. Should race on the speed and looks well weighted with just 54kg on his back. DEJA BLUE Did a good job to win the Rosemont Stud Stakes at Geelong last start. Is a winner at the track and distance and should go well. URBAN RULER Is chasing successive wins after a last start victory at Geelong when resuming. Yet to place in three second-up runs a genuine query but still a place chance from a good draw.
NIGHT’S WATCH Won well at Bendigo last start and is a winning chance again. The wide barrier is a concern but they are likely to string out and should be able to get some cover. If that?s the case he is the one to beat. ANOTHER COLDIE In the money last start running third at Bendigo and won once this prep at Geelong three runs back. Up in distance. Well placed. ROCK OF MAHAL Was only two-lengths form the winner last start at Moonee Valley after winning at Cranbourne. Gets a nice run from the gate and is a genuine contender. BARRY THE BAPTIST Last start winner at long odds at Hamilton and drops 1kg from last run. Harry Coffey a bonus. Right in this.
HELLOVA STREET Won’t have much difficulty finding the front from the outside gate and if that’s the case is the one to beat. Was narrowly beaten as favourite at Moonee Valley last start and is ready to win peaking third-up. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Only just missed in driving finish last start at Randwick when fresh. Goes down in weight. One of the main hopes. ECHO EFFECT Was placed at Caulfield last start and drops a couple of kilos. Wouldn’t surprise to see him more forward in the run here from a good gate and right in the mix. FOX HALL Fought back strongly when a close second at Moonee Valley last start when an odds-on favourite. The 3kg weight drop keeps him in the mix here and can bounce back.
BADAJOZ Won successive races at Rosehill and Caulfield before having no luck at Moonee Valley last start when he was held up at a vital time and arguably should have won. Gets the chance to make amends. BALL OF MUSCLE Has showed his customary early speed in all three runs this preparation being run down late on each occasion. Back to 1000m gives him the chance to get back in the winner?s list. CRYSTAL DREAMER Well beaten in the Caulfield Sprint last start but is back in grade here. Has won up the straight and goes in all the exotics. MILE HIGH Coming off a win at Moonee Valley. Has good speed and four wins from seven attempts this campaign. Expect to be right up there.
SAMBRO Backs up after finishing a close second in the Carbine Club on Saturday. This is a touch easier and gets the chance to go one better if connections decide to go around again. SWEET VICTORY Overcame a wide run in transit for a soft win at Hawkesbury last start. It’s a long way from a maiden at Hawkesbury to Flemington on Oaks Day but gee there was some authority in the win. IRISH VEGA Came from the back of the field and had some of the best closing sectionals when a close third in the Carbine Club on Saturday. Just has to back up to be right in the finish with an extra 200m to travel. FREE FLY TOO Looks to have some upside after winning a Kilmore maiden last start and can add some value to the exotics.
ALOISIA Could not have been more impressive beating the boys in the Moonee Valley Vase. Raced away in a manner that suggests the step up in distance won’t be an issue and the one to beat. LUVALUVA Came from the back of the field to win the Wakeful on Saturday. She looks a genuine stayer and is the danger to the favourite. PINOT Won the OaksTrial before going back to back in the Etheraal at Caulfield last start. Looks the leader and will be in this for a long way. HIYAAM Kept battling away finishing on the placegetters heels in the Wakeful. Gets a soft run from the gate and expected to be in the finish again.
DEMERARA Finished a close third at Moonee Valley last start over 1200m when a beaten odds on favourite after winning first three career starts. Back to 1100m gives him the chance to make amends. SMART COUPE Was unbeaten in her first preparation and did enough when placed at Moonee Valley resuming to be a leading chance here with the run under her belt. DEBONAIRLY Resumes and won three from five in her first preparation. Has won both her lead-up trials and has to be respected from the Waterhouse and Bott stable. JORDA Has placed in two runs from four this campaign and never saw clear running at Moonee Valley last start. A strong finisher. Right in this.
Race 1: 5. Seine Net
Race 2: 1. Zaunkonig
Race 3: 3. Junglized
Race 4: 1. Kathaire
Race 5: 1. Auerbach
Race 6: 4. El Dorado Mine
Race 7: 2. Fabrizio – BEST BET
Race 8: 4. So Spirited
Race 1: 3. Shot At The Reward
Race 2: 1. Ambitious Ex
Race 3: 3. One Hot Dane
Race 4: 2. Charlie Cheval – BEST BET
Race 5: 1. J’star
Race 6: 2. Best Hoffa
Race 7: 7. Rubyreddress
Race 1: 2. Bluebrook
Race 2: 7. Prince Of Venice
Race 3: 4. It’s A Date
Race 4: 3. Arcadian – BEST BET
Race 5: 1. Clemmensen
Race 6: 1. Bryan
Race 7: 3. Yu Long Success