Saturday Racing Tips – November 25, 2017

The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Saturday, November 25. The focus is on the Ballarat Cup at Ballarat, as well as the W.A. Guineas and Railway Stakes at Ascot. Doomben, Morphettville and Rosehill are also covered, along with Sha Tin on Sunday. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.

Promotions

View bookmaker racing promotions for this weekend (not available to NSW residents)

Best bets of the weekend

Ascot Race 8: No.3 Tom Melbourne and No. 4 Supply and Demand to win, plus No.7 Silverstream to place

Ballarat Race 8: No. 7. Mr Garcia and No. 5 Grey Lion

Ascot

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 5. Rhi’s Rocket
Raace 2: 2. War Jeune
Race 3: 2. Properantes
Race 4: 7. Crystal Fountain – BEST BET – 4 stars
Race 5: 3. Rockon Tommy
Race 6: 8. Royal Star
Race 7: 3. Money Maher
Race 8: 7. Silverstream – BEST BET – 4 stars
Ascot 9: 5. See Me Sizzle

Race 8 top 5:
1 – Silverstream
2 – Scales Of Justice
3 – Variation
4 – Tom Melbourne
5 – Cosmic Storm

Betfair – Race Assessment:

Race 7:
BACK – Salubrios to WIN at $8.00 [Stake 0.5% of your total bank]
BACK – Achernar Star to WIN at $10.00 [Stake 0.4% of your total bank]

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #3 Money Maher; #7 Roganella; #2 Debellatio

Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #7 Silverstream; #3 Tom Melbourne

Betfair – Feature Race Analysis:

Race 8:
BACK (WIN) Tom Melbourne at $3.20+ (1.7% of your betting bank)
BACK (WIN) Supply And Demand $7.60+ (0.3% of your betting bank)

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 8:
1. Tom Melbourne
2. Supply and Demand
3. Variation
Suggested Bet(s): Tom Melbourne 3 units win and 2 units to place.
If you’re an exotics player you must have 4, 6, 7, 16 in your numbers.

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 7, No.4, SALUBRIOUS – value bet of the day
Race 8 No.4, SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Race 9, No.12, MOSSERATTI – best bet of the day

Sportsbet – Race Comments & Tips:

Race 6:
Speed: 7 leads and rolls with 2, 4 and 9 handy. TRAP FOR FOOLS will take a stack of beating from the front again. He will likely be able to dictate terms and under that scenario it’s hard to see any of his rivals getting over the top of him. ROYAL STAR steps up to a staying trip for the first time this campaign. Her two prior runs at 2000m-plus have resulted in a stakes win and a nose second in the Oaks. DARK ALERT will appreciate taking a sit and find the line. IHTSAHYMN next best on the strength of an encouraging effort in the Ascot Gold Cup.
Selections 7, 8, 4, 1

Race 7:
Speed: 2 or 12 leads with 1, 4, 5, 13 and 16 handy. This is a super Guineas field, loaded with depth. Key form races are the Fairetha (boys) and the Champion Fillies/Burgess Queen (girls). Among the boys it’s hard to go past MONEY MAHER, who was simply brilliant winning the Fairetha. In a fast-run race he still reeled off big late splits. There’s little between the top fillies but I’m leaning to PERFECT JEWEL, who bypassed the Champion Fillies to be saved for this. DEBELLATIO did it tough in the Fairetha. He leads or box seats. ARCADIA PRINCE will appreciate drawing off the rail.
Selections 3, 14, 2, 9

Race 8:
Speed: This should be a genuinely run mile with 2 or 6 leading and 1, 3, 4, 5, 8 handy. VARIATION has had a perfect lead-up, placing in both the Asian Beau and Peters Stakes. He’ll lob much closer from a good draw and give this a big shake on the minimum. SCALES OF JUSTICE is all class. He’ll improve sharply on his scratchy effort in the Lee-Steere. He will be hard to get past. The maligned TOM MELBOURNE brings over super form and Oliver will give him every chance from the inside. SOVEREIGN NATION the best of the closers.
Selections 16, 2, 3, 15

Race 9:
Speed: 5 leads with 2, 3 and 8 handy. SEE ME SIZZLE rolling in front is always hard to run down. He showed terrific fight when narrowly winning the York Cup. FIRST AFFAIR just missed in the same race. She’ll give him a head start and attack the line. PUSHIN’ SHAPES can improve with the drop in class. FRIARESQUE attacked the line fresh. The rise to 1600m suits.
Selections 5, 4, 2, 10

Ladbrokes Race Comments:

Race 6:
This looks like a one act affair. ROYAL STAR has multiple wins at Ascot, standout top pick. TRAP FOR FOOLS looking to make it four in a row after another win at Ascot last start and has shown early speed in races to date, chance to place. VERY TEMPTING short back-up of seven days and all wins have come when faced with dry ground, capabable of getting into the money. FALCON CREST won once this prep at Belmont five runs back and a strong finisher, place chance.

Race 7:
Looks a toss up between the top two selections. ACHERNAR STAR has won at Ascot and placed once this prep, among the main chances. PERFECT JEWEL in strong form with two wins from three attempts this campaign and won all previous races as a favourite, must be considered. ART SERIES has been flying of late and has very strong form at Ascot, don’t treat lightly. SOPHIA’S SECRET has been running well this campaign winning twice and placing in all other outings, capabable of getting into the money.

Race 8:
SCALES OF JUSTICE has one win and once placing in three Group I attempts, a winning chance. BLACK HEART BART let-up for seven weeks and won five of 19 Group I attempts, not without each-way claims. MATERIAL MAN short back-up of seven days and a winner at first outing this prep, don’t treat lightly. VARIATION short back-up of seven days and has won four times at Ascot before, not the worst.

Race 9:
SEE ME SIZZLE winner of three in a row after last start win at York and has won at Ascot before, has solid claims. MOSSERATTI was narrowly beaten as a favourite last start at York and Damien Oliver a bonus, still in this. PUSHIN’ SHAPES goes well at Ascot and a long way down in class, sneaky chance. FIRST AFFAIR in strong form with two wins from nine attempts this campaign and came on strong when just beaten last start at York, not the worst.

Ballarat

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 4. Royal Fashion
Race 2: 13. Written In Stone – BEST BET – 3 stars
Race 3: 11. Cedar Grande
Race 4: 9. La Pomme De Pin
Race 5: 3. Gaudi
Race 6: 3. Royal Ace
Race 7: 14. Milwaukee
Race 8: 7. Mr Garcia – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 9: 11. Debonairly
Race 10: 3. Suspense

Quaddie: 1, 2, 7, 12, 14 / 1, 3, 4, 7, 9 / 1, 2, 5, 11, 12 / 2, 3, 10

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #5 Grey Lion

Betfair – Feature Race Analysis:

Race 8:
BACK (WIN) Grey Lion $3.70+ (0.8% of your betting bank)

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 8: Mr Garcia

Sportsbet – Race Comments & Tips:

Race 8:
5 can lead 12, 9, 4 with 7 next. ANTONIO GIUSEPPE was a clear forgive run MV when wide (and back in trip). He wasn’t far off Big Duke prior in Metrop and back out to this distance range suits him better. MR GARCIA quickened like a handy horse when clear at his Oz debut. He drops to 54kg and has some exceptional form lines at home. GREY LION is back in trip but fancy they try to offset that by rolling along up front today? Pattern? ONCIDIUM RULER won a brutal staying contest at Flemington and was only second-up. SECOND BULLET, DE LITTLE ENGINE chances. SONNTAG (positive ride!) won well latest.
Selections 1, 7, 5, 10

Ladbrokes Race Comments:

Race 8:
MR GARCIA coming off a win at Flemington when first up and regarded as a strong finisher, well placed. KNOWABLE has the speed to overcome a very wide draw, could threaten. SECOND BULLET has two placings from four runs this prep and placed at long odds last start at Flemington, still in this. ONCIDIUM RULER coming off a win at Flemington and rates highly with Beau Mertens aboard, each-way claims.

Doomben

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 1. Blue Book
Raace 2: 14. Don’t Doubt Da Wife
Race 3: 8. Aqua Vite
Race 4: 6. Miss Miao
Race 5: 12. Colinelle
Race 6: 3. Concessions
Race 7: 11. Inspired Estelle
Race 8: 9. Crack Me Up – BEST BET
Race 9: 1. Amanaat

Morphettville

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 3. Deplorable
Raace 2: 7. Yoelqui
Race 3: 2. Magnus Knight
Race 4: 7. Invisible Girl
Race 5: 5. Embecee Lil – BEST BET
Race 6: 2. All Bar Two
Race 7: 6. Imperator Augustus
Race 8: 4. Baker’s Dozen

Rosehill

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 4. Plague Stone
Race 2: 4. Poetic Charmer
Race 3: 8. Mornington – BEST BET – 4 stars
Race 4: 7. Zonk – BEST BET – 4 stars
Race 5: 1. Realing
Race 6: 9. Wayanka – BEST BET – 4 stars
Race 7: 17. Miss Dubois
Race 8: 9. Bon Amis – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 9: 4. Dreamforce

Quaddie: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 7, 11, 13, 17 / 9 / 2, 4, 6

Sunday

Sha Tin (Hong Kong)

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 2, No. 1 Pick Number One – 3 stars
Race 3, No. 12 Giddy Giddy – 4 stars
Race 5, No. 8 Strathclyde – 3 stars
Race 6, No. 7 Fifty Fifty – 3 stars
Race 7, No. 3 Premiere – 3 stars
Race 9, No. 4 Ping Hai Star – 4.5 stars

Quaddie: 3, 4, 9, 10 / 2, 4, 10 / 3, 4, 6 / 2, 4, 5, 14

 

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