NFL Super Bowl LII – Patriots v Eagles – Preview, Betting Tips & Bookmaker Promos

Super Bowl LII

This article provides a preview with betting tips for Super Bowl LII, which sees the New England Patriots play the Philadelphia Eagles at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Super Bowl LII kicks off at 10:30 AM AEDT on Monday, February 5.

New England Patriots

  • Head Coach:
    Bill Belichick has been the head coach of the Patriots since 2000.
  • Starting Quarterback:
    Tom Brady was selected by the Patriots in the 6th round of the 2000 draft. He has spent his entire career with the Patriots.
  • 2017-18 Season Record:
    New England finished the regular season as the number 1 seed in the AFC with a 13-3 record (6-2 at home and 7-1 on the road).
  • Form:
    After 2 losses in the opening 4 rounds, the Patriots finished off the regular season with an 11-1 record. The only defeat during that stretch was a shock away loss to the unfancied Dolphins in Round 12.
  • Post Season:
    New England beat Tennessee 35-14 in the Divisional Playoffs then had a come-from-behind 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the Conference Championships. Both fixtures were at home.
  • Super Bowl record:
    This will be the Patriots’ 10th Super Bowl appearance and the 7th for quarterback Tom Brady as well as the 7th for Bill Belichick as a head coach. Brady and Belichick have won 5 Super Bowls together in New England, most recently last year when they secured a record-breaking come-from-behind win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Head Coach:
    Doug Pederson has been the head coach of the Eagles since 2016. This is his first posting as NFL head coach. Prior to that he spent 3 seasons as the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs.
  • Starting Quarterback:
    Nick Foles was selected by the Eagles in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft. He spent 3 years with the Eagles before 1-year stints at the Rams and the Chiefs. Foles rejoined the Eagles as the reserve quarterback in 2017. He became the starter after the Eagles lost Carson Wentz to a torn ACL in Week 14.
  • 2017-18 Season Record:
    Atlanta finished the regular season as the number 1 seed in the NFC with a 13-3 record (7-1 at home, 6-2 on the road).
  • Form:
    After starting the season with a 10-1 record, the Eagles, went 3-2 to finish the regular season. It should be noted that they rotated out key players for the final round defeat to the Cowboys.
  • Post Season:
    Atlanta beat the Falcons 15-10 in the Divisional Playoffs then saw off the Vikings 38-7 in the Conference Championships. Both fixtures were at home.
  • Super Bowl record:
    The Eagles haven’t won a Super Bowl in franchise history. This is the Eagles’ first Super Bowl appearance since 2004, which was also against the Patriots. As a backup quarterback to Brett Favre, head coach Doug Pederson received a Super Bowl ring for Green Bay’s Super Bowl XXXI (1996 season) win over the New England Patriots.

Elo Ratings

Using the NFL Elo Ratings tool at our sister site and setting the “Previous Season Weighting” to 0 to account for just this season, we get the following Elo ratings for the various methodologies:

New England Patriots (ranked 2nd in the NFL)
Basic: 1,609.13 (was 1,626.96 this time last season)
FiveThirtyEight: 1,616.98
AST1/2: 1,665.82
AST1/3: 1,643.96
Average: 1,633.97

Philadelphia Eagles (ranked 1st in the NFL)
Basic: 1,613.48
FiveThirtyEight: 1,620.96
AST1/2: 1,671.38
AST1/3: 1,648.01
Average: 1,638.46

Every methodology rates Philadelphia are marginally the stronger of the two sides, but keep in mind it doesn’t account for the loss of regular starting QB Carson Wentz for the Eagles.

Key Stats

The following regular season figures are sourced from NFL.com. The team with the better stats is highlighted in green.

YPG = yards per game.

Offence Statistics New England Philadelphia
Figure Rank Figure Rank
Passing (YPG) 276.1 2nd 233.6 13
Rushing (YPG) 118.1 10th 132.2 3rd
Total Offence (YPG) 394.2 1st 365.8 7th
Points Per Game 28.6 2nd 28.6 3rd

 

Defence Statistics New England Philadelphia
Figure Rank Figure Rank
Passing (YPG) 251.2 30th 227.3 17th
Rushing (YPG) 114.8 20th 79.2 1st
Total Defence (YPG) 366.0 29th 306.5 4th
Points Per Game 18.5 5th 18.4 4th

 

The Patriots have the edge on most offensive stats, but the two sides are almost inseparable in points scored per game.

It’s a reverse for the defence. The Eagles have the edge in most defensive stats, however the two are similar in points conceded per game. Note that New England’s famed “bend but don’t break” defence shows through in the statistics here, with the side ranked 29th in yards conceded per game but 5th in points conceded.

Super Bowl LII Betting

The following tips and discussion are broken down by market type.

Compare Super Bowl LII odds

Head to Head

At the time of writing the best available head-to-head odds are:
New England at 1.55 (Betfair)
Philadelhpia at 2.74 (Pinnacle)

The Eagles have a 4-2 record as the underdog this season, while the Patriots have gone 16-3 as the bookmaker’s favourite.

The two sides rarely play each other. The Patriots lost at home 28-35 to the Eagles in 2015. Prior to that the Patriots won 38-20 away in 2011 and 31-28 at home in 2007.

More often than not the side that wins the Super Bowl is the side that boasts the best defence and in this case, the Eagles dominated the YPG stats but both sides are even in points conceded. On offence there’s little to separate in the stats but you have to factor in the new quarterback for the Eagles, because most of their regular season passing and scoring stats are attributable to Carson Wentz. For the Patriots, quarterback Tom Brady is a proven winner while head coach Bill Belichick has a huge amount of experience at this level. If I were to bet on the head-to-head market I would back New England. It’s hard to knock Brady’s and Belichick’s 5-2 record in Super Bowls. I’m also mindful that regular Eagles starting QB Carson Wentz had a QB rating of 101.9 in the regular season while Nick Foles had a rating of 79.5.

Line

The Patriots started as 6-point favourites but at the time of writing the line is 4.5. The best available line odds are:
New England -4.5 at 1.98 (Pinnacle)
Philadelphia +4.5 at 1.95 (CrownBet, Sportsbet)

Both sides have been very good to punters who backed them at the line this season, with both the Patriots and Eagles going 12-6 against the handicap.

In the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots’ Super Bowl results have been:
XXXVI (2002) – New England 20, St. Louis 17
XXXVIII (2004) – New England 32, Carolina 29
XXXIX (2005) – New England 24, Philadelphia 21
XLII (2008) – New York Giants 17, New England 14
XLVI (2012) – New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17
XLIX (2015) – New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
LI (2017) – New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28

Of the Patriots’ five wins, three were by 3 points, one was by 4 points and the other was a six-point win in overtime.

Based on the history of close finishes, I would be inclined to back the Eagles +4.5 at the line. Because I’m leaning towards the Patriots to get the win, I also like the Patriots 1-10 margin selection at 2.80 (William Hill).

Total Score

The total with most bookmakers is 48.5.

Neither side has a strong trend over or under this season. The Patriots have gone over 8 and under 10, while the Eagles have gone over 9 and under 9.

In the post season the Patriots’ games have totaled 49 and 44 points, while the Eagles’ games have totaled 25 and 45 points.

Head-to-head history is too difficult to read into because the sides have only played three times since 2007, and the Eagles have a different head coach and quaterback since thier last meeting.

Based on the above I don’t have any recommendation for the over/under market.

Other Match Markets

Given the Patriots’ come-from-behind wins in the last two Super Bowls and their come-from-behind victory over the Jaguars in the Conference Championships two weeks ago, I like the Philadelphia/New England selection in the HT/FT market at 7.00 (Unibet). For this reason I also like Philadelphia +3.5 in the first-half handicap market at 1.83 (CrownBet, Mad Bookie).

Super Bowl LII MVP

Given both sides are stronger on offence compared to defence, I’m inclined to look towards the quarterbacks:

Tom Brady: 2.02 (Betfair)
Nick Foles: 6.50 (Ladbrokes)

First Touchdown Scorer

Compare the latest Super Bowl first touchdown scorer odds

Looking at the regular season stats, the leading TD scorers for the Patriots were:
Dion Lewis – 9 total, 6 rushing and 3 receiving
Rob Gronkowski – 8 receiving (he cleared concussion protocol and is fit to play)
Rex Burkhead – 8 total, 5 rushing and 3 receiving
Brandin Cooks – 7 receiving
Mike Gillislee – 5 rushing
Chris Hogan – 5 receiving
James White – 3 receiving
Danny Amendola – 2 receiving

The leading TD scorers for the Eagles were:
Alshon Jeffery – 9 receiving
Zach Ertz – 8 receiving
Nelson Agholor – 8 receiving
Corey Clement – 6 total, 4 rushing and 2 receiving
Trey Burton – 5 receiving
LeGarrette Blount – 2 rushing (keep in mind he’s going up against his old team)

Given the number of weapons available to both offences, trying to pick a first touchdown scorer is difficult.

Because both teams have better rush than pass defences, my guess is the first touchdown scorer will be via a pass rather than a run.

For the Patriots Rob Gronkowski at 8.50 (William Hill) and Brandin Cooks at 11.00 (William Hill) are obvious picks. A sneaky option is Danny Amendola at 15.00 (Ladbrokes). Amendola scored twice in the Conference Championship game. Also consider James White at 13.00 (Ladbrokes). White scored touchdowns as both a rusher and receiver against Tennessee in the Divisional Playoffs.

For the Eagles a likely candidate is Alshon Jeffery at 13.00 (William Hill). Jeffery scored 2 TDs in the Conference Championship game to go with his 9 during the regular season.

Of those picks Alshon Jeffery is arguably the best value pick due to the Patriots’ habit of starting big games slowly but ending quickly. For the same reason I would be more inclined to take a Patriots receiver in the last touchdown scorer market.

Best Bets

My favourite bets are:

Patriots 1-10 at 2.80 (William Hill)

Philadelphia/New England in the HT/FT market at 7.00 (Unibet)

Philadelphia +3.5 in the first-half handicap at 1.83 (CrownBet, Mad Bookie)

Super Bowl LII Betting Promotions

Note that these are displayed to you because according to your IP address you are not located in NSW.

BlueBet

NFL – Super Bowl LII – first touchdown scorer double payout up to $200
(Expires Mon, 5 Feb 2018)

Double your winnings on Super Bowl LII First Touchdown scorer market – Get a 100% bonus on the First Touchdown market – up to $200. This offer is not available to residents of NSW or SA. Bonus will be paid out as a real cash bonus. Offer applies to pre-game single bets only. Multi bets, live bets and bets made by telephone are ineligible. Bets placed using free bets or bonus bets are ineligible for the offer.

CrownBet

NFL – Super Bowl LII – bonus bet if lead at 3/4 time but lose
(Expires Mon, 5 Feb 2018)

Place a Head to Head bet on Super Bowl LII and if your team lead at 3 quarter time but lose, you'll get your stake back in Rewards Points up to $50. Applies to your first Head to Head bet placed on Super Bowl LII. Excludes NSW and SA.

Ladbrokes

NFL – Super Bowl LII – automatic payout if lead by 10+ points
(Expires Mon, 5 Feb 2018)

If your head to head bet between New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles leads by 10 or more points at any time of the match, you'll be paid out as a winner, regardless of the event outcome. Single head to head pre-match bets only.

Neds

NFL – Super Bowl Lii – automatic payout if lead by 8+ points
(Expires Mon, 5 Feb 2018)

Back your team in the Super Bowl & if at any point they are 8 points or more ahead, get an instant payout. Max Bet $20. This offer is not available to residents of SA. Applies to your first head-to-head bet.

Palmerbet

NFL Playoffs – Bonus Bet If Lead at 3/4 Time But Lose
(Expires Mon, 5 Feb 2018)

If a Customer backs a team which loses the match but leads at the end of 3/4 time, he/she will receive a Bonus matching the value of their first wager up to $100. This promotion excludes residents of SA & WA. Applies to first Head to Head win bet on all 2017/18 NFL Playoff matches. Multi bets are not included.

Palmerbet

NFL – Super Bowl LII – bonus bet if lead at 3/4 time but lose
(Expires Mon, 5 Feb 2018)

If a Customer backs a team which loses the match but leads at the end of 3/4 time, he/she will receive a Bonus matching the value of their first wager up to $100. This promotion excludes residents of SA & WA. Applies to first Head to Head win bet on the 2017/18 Super Bowl. Multi bets are not included.

PointsBet

NFL – Super Bowl LII – refund on 1st bet if it loses but Brady throws for 300+ yards
(Expires Mon, 5 Feb 2018)

Up to $500 Money Back as CASH if 1st Bet of Match does not win but Tom Brady Throws for 300+ Yards. 1st Bet On Match Only. Not available to customers in SA, NSW or WA. Bets using a STOP LOSS will not be eligible for the promotion.

Sportsbet

NFL – Super Bowl LII – automatic payout if lead by 10+ points
(Expires Mon, 5 Feb 2018)

Place a head-to-head bet on Super Bowl LII and if your team leas by 10 or more points at any stage you will be paid out as the winner, regardless of the event outcome. Applies to NFL Super Bowl LII between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots on February 5th 2018. Applies to pre-match singles in the Match betting market only. Only the first team bet on will be eligible for the offer. Multiple bets on the same team are eligible for this offer. Your bet will be paid out in full if your team is winning by 10 points at any stage in the match regardless if your selection goes on to lose or tie the game. If your selection is leading by 10 points and goes on to win the match your bet will not be paid as a winner twice. This Offer excludes SA & WA residents. Cashed Out bets, Multibets, Megabets, Exotics, Telephone bets and Live Betting are excluded from the offer.

Sportsbet

NFL – Super Bowl LII – 1.95 handicap odds
(Expires Mon, 5 Feb 2018)

Handicap odds of 1.95 or equivalent odds are available on the Super Bowl, where fluctuations are applicable in circumstances as determined by Sportsbet.

TopBetta

NFL – Super Bowl LII – first touchdown refunds
(Expires Mon, 5 Feb 2018)

Place a bet on the First Touchdown Scorer market in the Super Bowl and if your selection does not score first but scores the first touchdown in any of the other quarters, TopBetta will refund your stake up to $50 in cash. Applies to first bet in First Touchdown Scorer market only.

 

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