Saturday Racing Tips – February 10, 2018

The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Saturday, February 10. The focus is on the C.F. Orr Stakes at Caulfield. Doomben, Morphettville, Pinjarra and Warwick Farm are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.

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Best bets of the weekend

Caulfield Race 1: No.4 Plot The Course
Caulfield Race 2: No.2 Oohood

Warwick Farm Race 1: No.1 Satin Slipper
Warwick Farm Race 3: No.3 She Will Reign
Warwick Farm Race 7: No.2 Egyptian Symbol

Caulfield

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 4. Plot The Course – 3.5 stars
Race 2: 2. Oohood
Race 3: 2. Ollivander
Race 4: 1. Gailo Chop
Race 5: 1. Shoals – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 6: 2. Super Cash – 4 stars
Race 7: 1. Levendi
Race 8: 3. Tosen Stardom
Race 9: 3. Prussian Vixen – each-way – 3 stars

Quaddie: 1, 2, 6 / 1, 2, 5 / 3, 7, 8 / 1, 3, 7, 8

Betfair – Racing Preview:

Race 4:
BACK (WIN) Harlem for 2 units
BACK (WIN) Lord Fandango for 0.5 units

Race 8:
BACK (WIN) Mr Sneaky for 1 Unit

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 1 #2 Gallic Chieftain
Race 4 #1 Gailo Chop
Race 5 #1 Shoals

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 7:
Back Black Sail and Villermont.
Happy to level stake based on the map and make Black Sail (11.00) a good result.

Race 8:
1. Thronum
2. Tosen Stardom
3. Mr Sneaky
Suggested Bet(s)
Back Thronum 2 units a win and 1 unit to place getting square if he runs a drum at the current quote.

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 8, No.14, MIGHTY BOSS

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Race 1: 2 Gallic Chieftan, 4 Plot the Course, 5 Khutulun, 7 Downhearted
Race 2: 1 Crossing the Abbey, 2 Oohood, 4 Al Naifa, 9 Pure Elation
Race 3: 2 Ollivander, 6 Plague Stone, 8 High Ratio, 9 Ben Hercules
Race 4: 1 Gailo Chop, 2 Lord Fandango, 3 Wyndspelle, 5 Seaburge
Race 5: 1 Shoals, 2 Tulip, 4 Leather’n’Lace, 6 Smart Coupe
Race 6: 1 Rich Charm, 2 Super Cash, 6 Merchant Navy, 7 Prezado
Race 7: 2 Villermont, 7 Black Sail, 11 Weapon
Race 8: 8 Thronum, 9 Dollar for Dollar, 14 Mighty Boss
Race 9: 1 Silent Sedition, 6 Just Hifalutin, 7 Petition, 8 Fragonard

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 1:
NOTE: Rail comes back to true. Was 9m last week with no mad pattern evident. It was a “fast day” though. SPEED: Maybe 7 leads 6, 8 & maybe 1 but not sure. PLOT THE COURSE gets his chance to win again. He was no match for a good one here last time but had the measure of KHUTULUN (narrowly). They were both third up. Plot The Course ran well in an Eclipse Stakes his one go 1800m. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN ran a nice race fresh last time in and the small field suits. DOWNHEARTED was a touch stiff last time. No reason to pot him at 1800m.
Selections 4 Plot the Course, 2 Gallic Chieftan, 7 Downhearted, 5 Khutulun

Race 2:
Three newbies here have all shown ability. Of the raced, firstly those through the Diamond Preview we have OOHOOD, who was a touch unlucky and went over line beautifully (11.46 last 200m = race-fastest), and DOWNLOADS (only one to break 34 last 600m, home 11.5) will both relish 1100m. CROSSING THE ABBEY beat them both and ran well. PURE ELATION kicked clear off a strong (2L above average) tempo. She ran well also. There was a length over five of them so ?? AL NAIFA won well with blinkers on and was pipped by Preview winner prior. ANGEL was good on debut. ENBIHAAR won well (gap 3rd) on debut.
Selections 2 Oohood, 4 Al Naifa, 9 Pure Elation, 3 Enbihaar

Race 3:
PLAGUE STONE was a trial star before starting very short on debut, when he did plenty wrong. His trial since was an awesome display of sustained speed (fast time). HIGH RATIO looked good winning a recent trial (gap to third) and he produced terrific closing speed on debut at Bendigo. OLLIVANDER was every bit as good as Long Leaf in the Preview. They beat RUN NAAN clearly and the race rated highly. Yes 1100m! WRITTEN BY beat subsequent winner Sanctimonious nicely on debut. BIONICS and NATIVE SOLDIER next.
Selections 6 Plague Stone, 2 Ollivander, 8 High Ratio, 3 Written By

Race 4:
SPEED: 7 may lead 1, 3 with 2 next along inside? WYNDSPELLE’s return was a good one here in the Barton Stakes. He beat home subsequent Group 1 placegetter So Si Bon second up last prep then Group 1 placed himself deeper into the prep. GAILO CHOP had excuses fresh last prep. He’d been top-three in five of his other six fresh runs and is the class here. Both LORD FANDANGO and HARLEM have never won fresh up, nor have they won below 2000m. However, both ran very well first up last time in and the small field here suits them.
Selections 3 Wyndspelle, 1 Gailo Chop, 2 Lord Fandango 4 Harlem

Race 5:
SPEED: 4, 3, 1 go forward. 5 (if jumps) and 6, 7 handy. 10 next? BOOKER resumes. She beat all bar star male Merchant Navy fresh last prep despite a tough run. Love the way she quickened in recent jumpout. SHOALS is two for two fresh and was highly competitive with Booker before splitting two potential stars (Aloisia/Alizee) in Thousand Guineas. Love the way TULIP hit the wire in her jumpout. Her Everest run proves this is a very good crop of fillies this season. LEATHER’N’LACE can measure up for sure. SEE ME EXCEED can improve here at 1200m. MAGNESIUM ROSE and SMART COUPE next best.
Selections 3 Booker, 1 Shoals, 2 Tulip, 4 Leather’n’Lace

Race 6:
8 leads 2, 3, 5? Great race. Plenty of interest in how star 3YOs MERCHANT NAVY and PREZADO measure up. I’ll be shocked if they do not. Plenty of interest in ARDROSSAN too, his two wins impressive (wet) as was jumpout (dry). Going MERCHANT NAVY, who won very well fresh last prep and trialled super. His Coolmore win on Derby day was the Run of the Carnival for mine. He flew at the line running his last 3 x 200m splits in 10.27 (wow), 11.43 and 11.48 (yes his last 200m almost matched his 400m-200m). RICH CHARM won well that same day (10.75/10.74/11.86 = gun!). SUPER CASH flies fresh, can win.
Selections 6 Merchant Navy, 2 Super Cash, 1 Rich Charm, 7 Prezado

Race 7:
4 may lead 5, 10. Any of 7, 8, 13, 14 handy. CAO CAO led and won well out to 1400m here last time and the race rated highly. He was caught wide prior and hung badly yet still finished alongside PREVAILING WINDS (who was luckless in fairness). He then went to MV and surged late to score. He acts like he will relish 1400m. MR SO AND SO attacked line behind him and was only first up: yes 1400m for him! ASTORIA trialled well. He was on heels of two smart ones fresh last prep in good time. VILLERMONT could be anything. I’m a HOLY SNOW fan too. ISLAND MISSILE form ties in with Cao Cao thru Barbeque.
Selections 3 Astoria, 2 Villermont, 5 Prevailing Winds

Race 8:
SPEED: 5 leads 6, 8 with 1, 2, 4, 9 handy. HARTNELL was a brilliant winner of the Lawrence here fresh last prep, easily beating BLACK HEART BART. He’s not getting any younger but his recent trial in Sydney was excellent. TOSEN STARDOM has fresh form around Black Heart Bart but they’ll need a plan now from the draw. MR SNEAKY was terrific fresh behind THRONUM and can measure up. Little between DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR and TSHAHITSI from the Barton. SHILLELAGH is always underrated. She trialled well with Hartnell. Keen to see how MIGHTY BOSS measures up, note Cliff’s Edge ran well Mackinnon in spring.
Selections 1 Hartnell, 7 Mr Sneaky, 11 Shillelagh

Race 9:
SPEED: 3, 9 can lead 5, 11, 12 with 1, 8 handy from draw(s). SILENT SEDITION resumes and was beaten a lip in this race last year by PRUSSIAN VIXEN with modest tempo against her. She easily had measure of MONTOYA’S SECRET and FLYING JESS in recent trial. FLIPPANT was beaten in quick time fresh then was below her best in Australia Stakes. She can have an ”off day” but is well weighted this scale given her rating and back against mares. PETITION is well and truly good enough. Jumpout was quite good, nice middle draw for her. FRAGONARD’s unbeaten fresh, loved her jumpout. JUST HIFALUTIN next.
Selections 1 Silent Sedition, 7 Petition, 5 Flippant, 8 Fragonard

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 1:
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN back from 12 week let-up and three from five wins have been in the dry, perfectly placed. DOWNHEARTED has good early speed and has two placings from four runs this prep, not without each-way claims. PLOT THE COURSE drawn perfectly and has two placings from three runs this prep, needs the breaks. KHUTULUN has two placings from three runs this prep and amongst the placegetters last start running third at Caulfield, place claims.

Race 2:
A lot of horses with limited form. OOHOOD hasn’t been far away in first two races and ran on strong to finish on the winner’s heels last start at Caulfield when resuming, perfectly placed. AL NAIFA has had a flying start to their career and last start winner to break maiden at Sale, in with a chance. CROSSING THE ABBEY a winner at first outing this prep and only just missed in driving finish last start at Caulfield, chance to place. PURE ELATION just missed as favourite at only start at Caulfield and has the speed to overcome an unfavourable draw, strong place chance.

Race 3:
BEN HERCULES faded to finish on the winners’ heels at only start at Ballarat and drops 2.5kg from last run, commands respect. PLAGUE STONE won Warwick Farm trial convincingly, could upset. HIGH RATIO at only start winner at Bendigo and won last trial at Geelong, each-way claims. OLLIVANDER has had a flying start to their career and favourable draw, chance to place.

Race 4:
Hard to see anything upsetting the top two choices. LORD FANDANGO resumes after a spell of 16 weeks and ran second at Bendigo when last first-up, a close top selection. WYNDSPELLE in the money last start running third at Caulfield when resuming and generally strong second-up, consider in exotics. GAILO CHOP first-up after 13 week break and proven first-up runner winning in two of six attempts, for the exotics. SEABURGE down in weight and both wins have come in the dry, include in exotics.

Race 5:
SHOALS back after 14 week break and won last start in the Empire Rose Stakes, key chance. TULIP resumes after a spell of 14 weeks and resumes well running second at Moonee Valley when last first-up, dangerous. SMART COUPE has won or placed in all races to date and just missed when heavily backed last start at Caulfield when resuming, cannot be ruled out. LEATHER’N’LACE resumes after a spell of 17 weeks and generally races near the speed, strong place chance.

Race 6:
SUPER CASH resumes after a spell of 13 weeks. Won at Caulfield when last fresh and won four of five first-up, well placed. MERCHANT NAVY surprised punters to win at long odds last start in the Ascot Vale Stakes and won all previous races as a favourite, not without each-way claims. PREZADO finished a length back from the leader last start at Flemington when resuming and down in weight, looks threatening. RICH CHARM resumes after a 14 week spell. Can’t knock the form winning two in a row at Flemington and Caulfield, could upset.

Race 7:
VILLERMONT let-up for 12 weeks and placed in last trial at Geelong, hard to go past. CAO CAO led throughout for a dominant win last start at Caulfield and all wins have come when faced with dry ground, not without each-way claims. BLACK SAIL placed in last trial at Cranbourne and should race on the speed, place claims. WEAPON looking for a hatrick after winning two in a row at Sandown and Ballarat, quinella.

Race 8:
DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR just missed as favourite last start at Caulfield and five wins from 11 attempts this campaign, a winning chance. BLACK HEART BART winner of five Group I races and has very strong form at Caulfield, cannot be ruled out. THRONUM led throughout for a dominant win last start in the Australia Stakes when fresh and has a lot of early speed, each-way claims. MIGHTY BOSS was a winner last start at long odds in the Caulfield Guineas and won in only Group I attempt, don’t treat lightly.

Race 9:
SILENT SEDITION first-up after 14 week spell and proven first-up runner winning in one of five attempts, key chance. PETITION let-up and generally strong first-up placing at Sandown last attempt, don’t dismiss. FRAGONARD first-up after 24 week spell and won last start at Moonee Valley, dangerous. JUST HIFALUTIN bolted in last start at Flemington and in strong form with three wins from seven attempts this campaign, place chance.

Doomben

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 2. Outraged
Race 2: 3. Mr Marbellouz
Race 3: 4. Plumaro
Race 4: 1. Snitz – BEST BET
Race 5: 3. Bold Assassin
Race 6: 4. I’m A Rippa
Race 7: 10. Dream Master
Race 8: 1. First Crush
Race 9: 9. Mr Bellagio

Morphettville

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 1. Bondeiger
Race 2: 4. Lord Topper
Race 3: 7. Counterplay
Race 4: 2. Caribbean Wonder
Race 5: 1. Itz Invincible – BEST BET
Race 6: 1. Unbreakable
Race 7: 7. White Kaps
Race 8: 3. Blue Tycoon
Race 9: 11. Betalyk

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 2 #2 Strategic Demand
Race 8 #3 Blue Tycoon

Pinjarra

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 1. Tow Rope – BEST BET
Race 2: 9. Sandalwood
Race 3: 1. Royal Missile
Race 4: 6. Eleven Seconds
Race 5: 15. Stoicisim
Race 6: 4. Kiss The Breeze
Race 7: 2. Epic Grey
Race 8: 2. Gee Boss

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 1 #1 Tow Rope

Warwick Farm

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 1. Satin Slipper
Race 2: 5. Zourkhan
Race 3: 3. She Will Reign – BEST BET – 4 stars
Race 4: 16. El Mo
Race 5: 11. Snicki Minaj
Race 6: 4. Kementari
Race 7: 2. Egyptian Symbol
Race 8: 4. Show A Star
Race 9: 1. Artlee – 3.5 stars

Quaddie: 3, 4 / 2, 4, 7 / 1, 2, 4 / 1, 2, 6, 8

Palmerbet – Racing Team Preview:

Race 1: SATIN SLIPPER
Race 2: BEIJING BOARD
Race 3: SHE WILL REIGN
Race 4: UNDER THE THUMB
Race 5: SNICKI MINAJ
Race 6: SIEGE OF QUEBEC
Race 7: EGYPTIAN SYMBOL
Race 8: TESTASHADOW
Race 9: DAL CIELO

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 5 #1 Sactimonious

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 5:
Back Ballistica (4.60) to win

Race 6:
Back Kementari (3.30) and save on Single Bullet (20.00).

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 6, No.4 KEMENTARI – lay bet of the day (meaning you should bet against it)
Race 6, No.3, SIEGE OF QUEBEC – best bet of the day
Race 9, No.3, MY FAVORITE – value bet of the day

 

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