Saturday Racing Tips – February 17, 2018

The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Saturday, February 17. The focus is on the Lightning Stakes at Flemington and the Apollo Stakes at Randwick. Ascot, Doomben and Morphettville are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.

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Best bets of the weekend

Flemington Race 4: 7. Kings Will Dream
Flemington Race 8: 1. Redzel

Randwick Race 3: 1. Emperor’s Way
Randwick Race 6: 9. Addictive Nature
Randwick Race 7: 1. Aide Memoire (each-way)
Randwick Race 8: 3. Alizee

Ascot

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1, No. 3 How To Fly – 4.5 star bet

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 8 #3 Western Temple

Doomben

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 2, No. 5 Secret Mo – 4.5 star bet
Race 3, No. 1 Sista Act – 3 star bet
Race 8, No. 14 Malvern Estate – 3.5 star bet

Morphettville

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 5, No. 9 Euroman – 3.5 star bet

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 2 #9 Double Denman

Flemington

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 1. Praire Fire
Race 2: 3. Imperator Augustus
Race 3: 6. Sharing
Race 4: 7. Kings Will Dream – BEST BET – 4 stars
Race 5: 1. Late Charge – 3.5 star bet
Race 6: 7. Paris Rock – 4 star bet
Race 7: 13. Peaceful State
Race 8: 1. Redzel
Race 9: 16. Manolo Blahniq

Race 8 top 5:
1 – Redzel
2 – Terravista
3 – Ball Of Muscle
4 – Redkirk Warrior
5 – Hey Doc

Quaddie: 1, 4, 7, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 13 / 1, 2 / F

Betfair – Race Assessment:

Race 8: BACK TERRAVISTA – Bet to WIN at $7.50+ Stake 0.5% of your total bank.

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 6:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #8 Shokora (each-way)

Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #1 Cliff’s Edge; #12 Eclair Sunshine

Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #1 Redzel

Betfair – Racing Preview:

Race 7:
BACK (WIN) Peaceful State for 1 unit

Race 8:
BACK (WIN) Redzel for 2 Units (BSP)
BACK (WIN) Hey Doc for 1 Unit

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 5 #13 Handsome Thief
Race 6 #1 Aloisia
Race 9 #16 Manolo Blahniq

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 4: Back Kings Will Dream to win

Race 8:
1. Terravista
2. Redzel
3. Hey Doc
Suggested Bet(s):
Back Terravista 1 unit to win and 3 units to place

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 6, No.1, ALOISIA – LAY bet

Palmerbet – Group 1 Preview:

1. REDZEL, 2. Hey Doc, 3. Ball Of Muscle, 4. Rock Magic

Palmerbet – Venue Preview:

Race 1: SANGLIER
Race 2: MIDAS MAN
Race 3: MAMZELLE TESS
Race 4: SO POYSED
Race 5: KEN’S DREAM
Race 6: ALOISIA
Race 7: CLIFF’S EDGE
Race 8: 1. REDZEL, 2. Hey Doc, 3. Ball Of Muscle, 4. Terravista
Race 9: HE’S OUR ROKKII

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 1: 2, 5, 6, 7
Race 2: 2, 3, 4, 9
Race 3: 3, 4, 6, 7
Race 4: 2, 7, 8, 9
Race 5: 3, 5, 11, 13
Race 6: 4, 5, 7, 8
Race 7: 2, 7, 13, 16
Race 8: 1, 6, 9, 10
Race 9: 2, 7, 15, 16

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 6:
SPEED: 4 may lead 5, 10 with 9 next? Class is at the top here with G1 winner ALOISIA. She was luckless fresh last prep yet still hit line sweetly behind Leather’n’Lace before said G1 win over star fillies Shoals, Alizee and Booker in a very high-rating 1000 Guineas. BRING ME ROSES beat her home in the Oaks and her Manifold win here (beating Leather’n’Lace) was brilliant. BANISH was excellent winning against the track bias fresh last prep. RIMRAAM’s form ties in and she maps well. PARIS ROCK ran similar last 600m to Cliff’s Edge on the day at Caulfield and stays unbeaten. SHOKORA best roughie?
Selections 1 Aloisia, 2 Bring Me Roses, 7 Paris Rock, 5 Rimraam

Race 7:
SPEED: 5, 15 may lead 3, 11, 12 with 1, 2 handy. 7, 10, 18 (em) can be up there. A couple of highly promising 3YOs here up against CLIFF’S EDGE, who has score on the board. Top return win and he was competitive at G1/WFA level before his spell. GRUNT could be anything! He charged after Aloisia on debut then won his next two brilliantly. Loved his trial with Villermont and co. PEACEFUL STATE could also be anything! Fab return win and he was clearly the best run in the race in Sandown Guineas behind Villermont in my humble. Is extra 100m enough? VINLAND, CAO CAO, MAIN STAGE, SULLY, PARET hopes.
Selections 16 Grunt, 13 Peaceful State, 1 Cliff’s Edge, 10 Vinland

Race 8:
REDZEL hasn’t been beaten for a long time. He keeps running fast times from the front, he trialled super and he’s proven up the straight. Safe to say he sits on the throne as best sprinter in the land. MISSROCK is a good fresh mare and taking a line through Vega Magic/Rich Charm she can run a great race. REDKIRK WARRIOR is dynamite fresh and trialled super in the blinkers. Stablemate FORMALITY was close up to Merchant Navy in the Coolmore, which rated very well (as mentioned last week) with Rich Charm/Missrock on the day. HEY DOC a hope but 1000m? SUPIDO, TERRAVISTA and SUPER TOO place hopes.
Selections 1 Redzel, 8 Missrock, 4 Redkirk Warrior, 10 Formality

Race 9:
SPEED: 14 may cross from draw with any/all of 6, 7, 10, 12, 15 handy. 1, 2 off those? MANOLO BLAHNIQ had been looking like a 1400m horse all prep. Finally to that trip at Caulfield, he won running away, his overall time around 3L off the track record. That fast time was set up by GLENROWAN PRINCE, who run a sub-47 second first 800m and did a great job to hold second. He has a 5kg swing today. HE’S OUR ROKKII crossed the line near Black Heart Bart fresh last prep at WFA and is the class. SARACINO the sharp improver? Gate 16 OK by now? CHAMOIS ROAD was good last time and PURE PRIDE forgivable.
Selections 16 Manolo Blahniq, 1 He’s Our Rokkii, 6 Saracino, 11 Zebrinz

Randwick

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1: 3. So It Is
Race 2: 2. Legend Of Condor
Race 3: 1. Emperor’s Way
Race 4: 2. Deploy – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 5: 2. Pelethronius – 4 star bet
Race 6: 9. Addictive Nature
Race 7: 1. Aide Memoire – 3 star bet
Race 8: 3. Alizee
Race 9: 17. Missile Coda

Quaddie: 2, 3, 7, 9 / 1, 2, 5, 10 / 1, 2, 3 / 1, 2, 8, 11, 17

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 1: #1 Mates Story

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 3: Back Emperor’s Way to win
Race 6: Back Addictive Nature to win

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 5, No.9, PROMETHEUS – best bet
Race 6: No.3, ENDLESS DRAMA
Race 7, No.1, AIDE MEMOIRE – value bet

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 1: 1, 2, 6, 7
Race 2: 1, 2, 3, 4
Race 3: 1, 4, 6, 7
Race 4: 1, 2, 3, 6
Race 5: 1, 4, 8, 9
Race 6: 2, 4, 8, 9
Race 7: 2, 4, 5, 10
Race 8: 2, 3, 6, 13
Race 9: 2, 8, 17

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 6:
Here’s our highlight. Of course most would prefer Winx to be here, perhaps bar those that prefer an open race over a dominant superstar. And this, even without our champion mare, is one very very good race. 8 and 9 most likely to lead. 1 has the wherewithal to pozzie handy, even first-up and looking for further. I’m looking at the Expressway as the preferable race to come through – hence ADDICTIVE NATURE and GLOBAL GLAMOUR are my top two – but there were some lovely runs out of the Carrington as well, not just the winner but PRIZED ICON was excellent too. Respect COMIN’ THROUGH also. All runs below G1 level have been outstanding.
Selections 9 Addictive Nature, 8 Global Glamour, 6 Comin’ Through, 2 Prized Icon

Race 7:
14 and 6 to lead this. I’m going to buy into the New Zealand mare AIDE MEMOIRE. She has only appeared on rain-affected ground over in NZ but she should be able to pozzie very nicely indeed from the inside and her fresh form indicates she can come out and run really well fresh. She just coasted along in a Gosford trial at the end of January, give that pass. RAIMENT has won her last couple of fresh runs on Heavy tracks but I fancy she’s not merely a mudlark. ZESTFUL won this race last year, also after coming back fmo QLD. Had the inside gate 12 months ago, inside here.
Selections 1 Aide Memoire, 5 Raiment, 3 Zestful, 2 Eckstein

Race 8:
13 and 14 to push up. 4 can be handy but may need some luck from her draw. ALIZEE ought to pozzie beautifully from her draw and she trialled really well (settled behind Winx and ran past her). We already know she a high grade filly and this prep can be all about proving that even further. FROLIC will be fascinating to watch first-up for the ‘new’ stable. I like what she’s done in her two recent hitouts and we already know she can handle drawing widest. She’s a real winning chance. MELODY BELLE is a good level filly from over the Tasman. She’ll need some luck from her gate but if she can slot in then expect her in the main money.
Selections 3 Alizee, 1 Frolic, 2 Melody Belle

Race 9:
If we’re going to finish on a BM85 it’s certainly a good thing that it’s one like this, with good numbers and more than a couple of lightly raced winners right on the up. I’m opting for SUNCRAZE who has some high aims over the next couple of months. Has never finished worse than 2nd and has mixed it with some horses that are proven at this level (a defeat of Don’t Give A Damn reads particularly well). PICK ME UP is good fresh and usually pretty reliable each-way in these sorts of contests. MISSILE CODA split a handy pair at Warwick Farm when returning. This is definitely within her scope. And yes, STAR OF MONSOON does seem a different horse since returning as a gelding.
Selections 8 Suncraze, 5 Pick Me Up, 17 Missile Coda, 13 Star of Monsoon

 

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