Saturday Horse Racing Tips – March 3, 2018

The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Saturday, March 3. The focus is on the Australian Guineas at Flemington. The Chipping Norton stakes at Randwick are also covered, along with selected races at Ascot, Doomben, Morphettville and Wyong. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.

Promotions

View bookmaker racing promotions for this weekend (not available to NSW residents)

Best bets of the weekend

Randwick Race 8, No. 5 Raiment

Ascot

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 7, No. 10 Princess Zelda – 3.5 stars

Doomben

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 5, No. 5 Kopite – 3.5 stars
Race 7, No. 5 Tversky – BEST BET – 4.5 stars

Flemington

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 3, No. 1 Fragonard – 4 stars
Race 4, No. 1 Oregon’s Day – 3.5 stars
Race 6, No. 1 Tshahitsi – 4.5 stars
Race 8, No. Malibu Style – 3.5 stars

Race 7 – Australian Guineas
Best Bet: Grunt to WIN ($5.50)
Best Value: Bring Me Roses E/W ($21/$5)
Quinella: 4, 11, 16 ($20 for 666.67%)
First 4 2, 4, 7, 11, 16 ($50 for 41.67%)

Quaddie: 1, 2, 4 / 2, 4, 7, 11, 16 / 1, 2, 7 / 4, 6, 7, 8

Betfair – Racing Preview:

Race 7:
BACK (WIN) Cliffs Edge for 1.5 units
BACK (WIN) Main Stage for 0.5 units

Betfair – Race Assessment:

Race 7:
BACK – Cliffs Edge – Bet to WIN > $3.80 – Stake 1.2% of your total bank.
BACK – Mighty Boss – Bet to WIN at > $10.00 – Stake 0.5% of your total bank.

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 3 #1 Fragonard
Race 7 #2 Cliffs Edge
Race 8 #2 Secret Agenda

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 4:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #4 Flippant
Lay – #1 Oregon’s Day

Race 6:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #7 Coldstone

Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #9 Holy Snow; #2 Cliff’s Edge
Lay – #11 Grunt

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 3, #1 FRAGONARD – LAY (bet against)
Race 7, #11 GRUNT

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 7:
1. Cliff’s Edge
2. Main Stage
3. Holy Snow
4. Grunt
Suggested Bets:
Back Cliff’s Edge (4.20) and save on Main Stage (16.00) and Holy Snow (21.00).
If spending 10 units, have 6 units on Cliff’s Edge, 3 units on Main Stage and 1 unit on Holy Snow.

Race 8:
Back Crystal Dreamer (5.50) and Husson Eagle (10.00).
If spending 10 units have 6 units on Crystal Dreamer and 4 units on Husson Eagle making him the better way.
Randwick

Palmerbet – G1 Preview:

Race 7:
1. Mighty Boss, 2. Grunt, 3. Cliff’s Edge, 4. Bring Me Roses

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 1: 1,2,10
Race 2: 4,5,6
Race 3: 1,2,5
Race 4: 1,4,5,8
Race 5: 9,10,11,15
Race 6: 1,2,3,7
Race 7: 2 Cliff’s Edge, 11 Grunt, 13 Peaceful State, 15 Aloisia
Race 8: 1,2,3,4
Race 9: 2,4,6,12

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 6:
SPEED: 1 is likely to be allowed to roll today with 4, 7 handy. 12, 10 next? TSHAHITSI was not bad in a slowly run G1/WFA race last time, he was strong winning the Barton Stakes prior, beating Group 1-competitive horses. He carries weight well. POETIC DREAM makes his Oz debut. His jumpout win was brilliant, he is a Group 2 winner at home. COOL CHAP ran very well in a strong race fresh last prep. VIOLATE was a sectional star fresh last prep when 4.2L off Group 1-competitive Mr Sneaky at 1200m. The 1400m suits him much better. He can win! COLDSTONE must have a case. AMOVATIO may be silly odds?
Selections 1 Tshahitsi, 4 Poetic Dream, 11 Violate, 2 Amovatio

Race 7:
2 and 11 cross from draws, 12, 8, 1 handy from 3. Great race! If you asked who’d win this off their spring ratings I’d clearly say ALOISIA. However, the Hayes Stakes did rate significantly higher (imho) than the Vanity two weeks back. In saying that, Aloisia had 58.5kg. In the Hayes GRUNT was only first up and wore down CLIFF’S EDGE, who carted full weight penalty and was wide on strong speed. They were excellent, as were MAIN STAGE and MURAAQEB. PEACEFUL STATE wasn’t as dynamic second up on quick back-up but only rose 100m. Convinced he is G1 horse. VILLERMONT, HOLY SNOW, MR SO AND SO hopes!
Selections 13 Peaceful State, 11 Grunt, 2 Cliff’s Edge, 15 Aloisia

Race 8:
FELL SWOOP has not won for a long time but he was only two lengths off Redzel fresh last prep off a wide run and they smashed the clock that day. He trialled well. SECRET AGENDA also resumes. It’s never easy giving weight to males, but she has earnt her rating given strong recent wins over Viddora and Missrock. Loved her jumpout. CRYSTAL DREAMER gave a stack of weight last start to two girls who just ran well in an Oakleigh Plate. HUSSON EAGLE has a big weight swing on Crystal Dreamer for their clash here last May. CANNYESCENT is a hope but 1000m? Wary I’M WESLEY. KHALAMA some hope.
Selections 1 Fell Swoop, 2 Secret Agenda, 3 Peaceful Dreamer, 8 Husson Eagle

Race 9:
SPEED: 2, 6, 7, 8 all go forward. 1, 3, 5, 13, 14, 15 + 10, 12 can all be handy also. SCARECROW sat up on a strong speed in Hayes Stakes and beat home CAO CAO (who led). The race rated highly! KENTUCKY BREEZE made the “forgive file” there (wide). Scarecrow meets them better at the weights today. ECLAIR SUNSHINE didn’t fire in that race but has tested Royal Symphony here at 1400m. BARBEQUE has a case on the Cao Cao form for sure. HOLBIEN and RED WHITE AND BLUE plus OVER AND ABOVE have the scope to measure up.
Selections 6 Scarecrow, 2 Cao Cao, 1 Kentucky Breeze, 11 Eclair Sunshine

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 6:
Looks a toss up between the top two selections. COLDSTONE won at big odds last start at Flemington and has good early speed, among the main chances. ODEON back after 16 week break and resumes well, hard to hold out. TSHAHITSI has very strong form at Flemington and drawn perfectly, looks threatening. AMOVATIO first-up after 17 week spell and proven first-up runner winning in two of seven attempts, cannot be ruled out.

Race 7:
GRUNT last start win at Flemington took streak to three in a row and won all previous races as a favourite, genuine contender. PEACEFUL STATE a winner at first outing this prep and gets out to prefferred distance, the real danger in the race. CLIFF’S EDGE a winner at first outing this prep and has the speed to overcome drawing the widest barrier, dangerous. ALOISIA has one win and once placing in three Group I attempts, in with a chance.

Race 8:
SECRET AGENDA resumes from a long 41 week spell and proven first-up winning three from six when fresh, tough to beat. CRYSTAL DREAMER 2 wins from seven attempts this campaign and eight from 10 wins have been in the dry, dangerous. FELL SWOOP resumes from a 20 week spell and won last trial at Goulburn, not without each-way claims. THERMAL CURRENT has three placings from six runs this prep and carrying less weight, strong place chance.

Race 9:
Stand-out between the top two picks. OVER AND ABOVE has won or placed in all three races so far and generally races near the speed., one of the main hopes. CAO CAO placed in two of three at Flemington before and rates highly with Mark Zahra back on board, consider. BARBEQUE winner at Wyong and placed in all other outings this prepearation, still in this. SCARECROW 2 wins from three attempts this campaign and has a lot of early speed, in with a chance.

Morphettville

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 4, No. 1 Viennese Star – 4 stars
Race 7, No. 2 Master Of Arts – 3 stars

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 2 #5 Its Been A Battle

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 4:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #2 Downloads

Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #2 Master Of Arts

Randwick

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 5, No. 3 Care To Think – 4.5 stars
Race 8, No. 5 Raiment – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 9, No. 8 Generalissimo – 3 stars

Quaddie: 7 / 2, 4, 5, 6 / 2, 4, 5, 7 / 3, 7, 8, 12

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 3 #2 Santos
Race 6 #5 Stampede PLACE

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 3, #2 SANTOS – BEST BET
Race 5, #4 MACKINTOSH – VALUE BET

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 5:
Back Interlocuter (8.50) to win.

Race 6:
Back Prized Icon (1.90) in the Winx out market.

Palmerbet – G1 Preview:

Race 6 – Chipping Norton Stakes
1. WINX, 2. Prized Icon, 3. Libran, 4. Classic Uniform

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 1: 1,2,3,6
Race 2: 3,6,10,12
Race 3: 1,2,5,7
Race 4: 1,2,3,7
Race 5: 3,6,7,11
Race 6: 4 Prized Icon, 5 Stampede, 7 Winx, 9 Vinland
Race 7: 1,2,3,6
Race 8: 4,5,6,8
Race 9: 3,12,13,15

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 6:
When WINX won this race last year she gave race fitness away to none of her opposition. The year before it was essentially the same; she had taken the benefit of an Apollo win and was up against rivals that were (bar one roughie) either also 2nd-up or resuming. So this year, obviously, things are a little different. Courtesy of a Bowman suspension her return has been delayed so that she has to compete 1st-up over a mile and give, in one case, two runs worth of race fitness to a creditable peer. Possibly a challenge when you consider she’s that little bit older and beginning what is likely to be an extended (and possibly international) ‘farewell tour’. Possibly a challenge also when you recall her return run in the spring was a hair-raising, ‘only just made it’ thriller. So, challenging perhaps, or at least it would be for any regular racehorse. But of course that’s not at all what she is.
Selections 7 Winx, 4 Prized Icon, 5 Stampede, 1 Classic Uniform

Race 7:
Main pace from SHUMOOKH and she took some getting past last start. A fitter ALIZEE, perhaps like stablemate Kementari last week, won?t be doing anything but improving at her second run in. That may prove the difference today, particularly the fact she is a run ahead of the resuming UNFORGOTTEN. She looked very much like a future G1 winner last prep and now is the hour for her to step up.
Selections 2 Alizee, 8 Unforgotten, 6 Shumookh, 5 Rimram

Race 8:
Hardly a load of speed here. FRANCALETTA has raced forward in NZ and we did see DIXIE BLOSSOMS lead throughout in this very race last year. RAIMENT will set up beautifully and I would expect she?s better for her return. FARAWAY TOWN owns a faultless prep so far and she has to fully respected to run into the finish. Resumers EGG TART (if here), DIXIE BLOSSOMS and ZANBAGH (wait for later in the prep?) all worth some consideration.
Selections 5 Raiment, 4 Dixie Blossoms

Race 9:
Pace from 11, maybe 6 crossing over, 16 box-seating? First-uppers will attract most attention I think. OSBORNE BULLS missed a run a couple of weeks ago but he was consistent throughout that first campaign that he just has to be highly respected. PICK ME UP will be longer odds because he doesn?t win as much but he can pull out a run fresh and this should suit to a nice degree.
Selections 5 Pick Me Up, 3 Osborne Bulls, 10 Peacock, 8, Generalissimo

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 6:
All about one horse here. WINX resumes after a spell of 18 weeks and winner of 22 in a row after last start win at Moonee Valley, the one to beat. VINLAND ran six lengths back from the winner last start at Flemington when first up but won two of three as a favourite, place hope. PRIZED ICON won two of six Group I attempts and rates well on a softer track, chance to place. STAMPEDE likes a softer track and has a lot of early speed, consider in exotics.

Race 7:
ALIZEE coming off a win in the Light Fingers Stakes when resuming. Has one win and once placing in two Group I attempts, the testing material. SHUMOOKH has had a flying start to their career and expected to settle on speed, could upset. SHOALS has won once and placed once in two Group I races, the real danger in the race. MELODY BELLE has gone well on a softer track and won three of five as a favourite, not the worst.

Race 8:
ECKSTEIN trial win in the 14 days since last race adds confidence and placed in the Empire Rose Stakes this campaign, has solid claims. FRANCALETTA resumes after a 14 week spell and has won five of seven on a softer track, the real danger in the race. DIXIE BLOSSOMS back from 17 week spell and looks primed following successful lead-up trials, in with a chance. RAIMENT just missed as favourite last start at Randwick when fresh and goes well at the track, place hope.

Race 9:
OSBORNE BULLS first-up after 19 week break and placed in last trial at Warwick Farm, well placed. RAIDEN coming off a win at Warwick Farm when fresh and won three of five as a favourite, still in this. STAR REFLECTION winner at Muswellbrook and placed twice this campaign. Kept chasing and just missed last start at Canterbury, could upset. GHOSTLY has won one of three on a softer track, place chance.

Wyong

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 5, No. 4 Chilly Cha Cha – 4 stars

 

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