Saturday Horse Racing Tips – April 14, 2018

The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Saturday, April 14. The focus is on the second day of the Championships at Randwick, which features the Australian Oak, Elizabeth Stakes, Sydney Cup and Queen of the Turf. Ascot, Caulfield, Morphettville and Sunshine Coast are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.

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Best bets of the day

Caulfield Race 3, No.1 Palazzo Vecchio – LAY BET
Randwick Race 2, No.3 Renewal

Ascot

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 4, No. 5 Floyd – BEST BET – 4.5 stars

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 2 #1 Falcon Crest

Caulfield

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 7, No. 6 William Thomas – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 8, No. 2 Handsome Thief = 4 stars

Quaddie: 1, 2, 3, 9 / 5, 6, 12, 14 / 1, 2, 5, 8, 12, 13 / 1, 3, 4, 14

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 3 #1 Palazzo Vecchio – two different bookmakers selected this
Race 4 #12 Top of the Range

Morphettville

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 8, No. 16 Steel Of Madrid – 4 stars

Betfair – Racing Preview:

Race 7:
BACK (WIN) – High ‘n’ Dry for 1.5 units

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 1 #2 Ceylon

Randwick

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1, No. 8 Cristal Eyes – 4 stars
Race 3, No. 10 Sister Sledge – 4 stars
Race 4, No. 1 Just Dreaming – 4.5 stars
Race 10, No. 8 White Moss – EACH-WAY – 3.5 stars

Race 6 – Australian Oaks
Best: Hiyaam to WIN ($4.80)
Value: Wild Sea EACH WAY ($101/$21)
Exotic: Box Trifecta 2, 4, 5, 13 ($20 for 83.33%)

Race 7 – Elizabeth Stakes
Best: Happy Clapper to Place ($2.15)
Value: Humidor EACH WAY ($12/$1.75)
Exotic: Box Trifecta 1, 2, 3, 9 ($20 for 83.33%)

Race 8 – Sydney Cup
Best: Almandin to WIN ($4.20)
Value: Pre Stwick EACH WAY ($12/$3.75) & Zacada EACH WAY ($91/$21)
Exotic: Box Trifecta 1, 6, 10, 12 ($20 for 83.33%)

Race 9 – Queen of the Turf
Best: Dixie Blossoms to WIN ($5.50)
Value: Oregon’s Day EACH WAY (12/3.75)
Exotic: Trifecta 1, 3, 4, 7, 9 ($20 for 33.33%)

Quaddie: 3, 9 / 1, 6, 10, 12 / 1, 3, 4, 7, 9 / 3, 8, 10, 11

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 2:
Back Isaurian (2.75) to win.

Race 4:
Back Serene Miss (7.50) and Pomelo (12.00) to win.
If investing 10 units have 7 units on Serene Miss and 3 units on Pomelo.

Race 7
My Tips
1. Winx
2. Gailo Chop
3. Happy Clapper
4. Humidor
Suggested Bet:
Back Gailo Chop (3.60) in the Winx-out market.

Race 8:
Back Ventura Storm (11.00) and Pre Stwick (12.00).
If investing 10 units on the race have 7 units on Ventura Storm and 3 units on Pre Stwick.

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 2 #2 Isaurian
Race 7 #9 Winx

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 2, No.3, RENEWAL – BEST BET
Race 5, No.1, VIRIDINE – LAY BET
Race 6, No.4, SAVVY COUP – VALUE BET
Race 8, No.1 ALMANDIN

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 1: 1 Muswellbrook, 6 Aristocratic Miss, 8 Cristal Eyes, 11 Bold Arial
Race 2: 2 Isaurian, 3 Renewal, 5 Sparky Lad, 6 Waimea Bay
Race 3: 2 Fiesta, 3 Khulaasa, 6 Pure Elation, 7 Cristobal
Race 4: 4 Bon Amis, 5 Manhattan Mist, 9 Pomelo, 10 Serene Miss
Race 5: 1 Viridine, 6 She Will Reign, 9 Houtzen, 10 I Am Excited
Race 6: 1 Aloisia, 3 Unforgotten, 4 Savvy Coup, 5 Luvaluva
Race 7: 1 Happy Clapper, 2 Gailo Chop, 7 Comin’ Through, 9 Winx
Race 8: 1 Almandin, 2 Who Shot Thebarman, 13 Sir Charles Road
Race 9: 3 Dixie Blossoms, 4 Prompt Response, 5 Silent Sedition, 17 Alizee
Race 10: 7 Lubiton, 10 Quilista, 11 Sugar Bella

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 1:
The rail goes out to the 3 metre position for this card, and yet again we will enjoy dry conditions! 10 races last weekend and zero favourites saluted (albeit I reckon a couple of winners should have been fave, and Levendi was heavily backed). We launch in with 2YOs over a mile. Our potential leader (BOLD ARIAL) has also accepted for R3 (1200m but a G2 worth much more). ARISTOCRATIC MISS has been drawing outside or near outside for her last few starts but now finds herself with a barrier that could have her a lot closer. Winless to date but a quality filly just the same.
Selections 6 Aristocratic Miss, 9 Futooh, 8 Cristal Eyes, 1 Muswellbrook

Race 2:
2 fillies versus 7 males, one of them (TORVILL) giving all others b/t 2-6 kilos. They come from various angles as well, not many have previously clashed. No obvious leader but I would expect it could be between 3, 6 and 9. I am speculating that TORVILL – who draws inside half for only the fourth time at start 14 – can set up closer than she normally does. ISAURIAN may prefer to hold off for the Arrowfield but he will find a tougher race there I would think. It may all hinge on whether he’s ready to rise to 1400m. I would think that 3rd-up he is just that. If he’s absent then RENEWAL – through a strong form race – becomes top selection.
Selections 2 Isaurian, 3 Renewal, 1 Torvill, 8 California Turbo

Race 3:
We lost 9 early and note that 11 has accepted for R1 as well. I would think SETSUNA can be our leader. 10 and 12 could possibly press and cross? 1, 2, 4, 5 and 7 have all trialled since their most recent race start. Opting for FIESTA (her trial saw her settling just off the lead, kept going, not asked, 1st led) as she was so game from the outside barrier in the Slipper. To be beaten only a few lengths there after such a run bodes well and the form through the G1 (mainly via Oohood) reflects well for this. SISTER SLEDGE produced a mighty debut, running 2nd to the subsequent Slipper winner. No knock her.
Selections 2 Fiesta, 10 Sister Sledge, 7 Cristobal, 8 Sweet Ava

Race 4:
12, 9, 17, 5 could be settling order but 1, 3, 11 can race forward on their day as well. To be honest I haven’t had any strong convictions throughout this series and we get to what looks a very open final to me. Obviously Kris Lees dominates with 8 of 18 acceptors. In the end I default to the toppie. JUST DREAMING has drawn wide all this prep but tends to give a strong finish wherever you put her in the run. MANHATTAN MIST is yet to miss top two and meets DREAMING the same at the weights from Wyong. If there’s one to upset the Lees brigade it could be her. Or possibly BON AMIS? But not if he jumps out as he did at Newcastle.
Selections 1 Just Dreaming, 5 Manhattan Mist, 10 Serene Miss, 3 Bastia

Race 5:
Even though things panned out for her taking a sit last week I fancy HOUTZEN could revert to her original ways and lead this. SHE WILL REIGN draws inside her and may want to utilise that draw to be close-up as well. VIRIDINE will be off the pace but comes through strong races versus older horses. Already a G2 winner at this track and trip and should be set up well by a genuine pace. From the female side of things we have some of the highest profile fillies in the land contesting here. HOUTZEN enjoyed a little bit of redemption last week while I AM EXCITED is worthy of having a genuine crack at this level.
Selections 1 Viridine, 9 Houtzen, 10 I Am Excited, 8 Booker

Race 6:
Pace from HIYAAM of course, with 7, 8 and 9 trailing handy. I’m happy to back DANZDANZDANCE to set up well and still be finding at the end of 2400m, just as she was in the NZ Derby. LUVALUVA had to really battle last week but that’s forgivable when you’re giving all opponents so much weight. HIYAAM only 3rd-up but her Vic Oaks run suggests that won’t faze. UNFORGOTTEN will have many fans (rightly so) but she will have to do it from the back. SAVVY COUP and CONTESSA VANESSA have been up a very very long time but they continue to race well and had a good battle in the NZ Oaks last start.
Selections 8 Danzdanzdance, 5 Luvaluva, 2 Hiyaam, 3 Unforgotten

Race 7:
I scanned an article earlier this week speculating that this may well become WINX’s final race outing. We all hope that’s not the case! It’s certainly the final run for this prep. There is an argument that she may be heading down the mountain form-wise (five of her last seven wins have come by 1.3L or less whereas her previous eleven had all come by at least that margin). But she’s still winning! And presumably will again here. Darren Weir has a serious crack at upsetting the 25 straight with HUMIDOR (who WINX knows all about) and GAILO CHOP meeting her at their optimum distance.
Selections 9 Winx, 3 Humidor, 1 Happy Clapper, 2 Gailo Chop

Race 8:
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN lines up for his fifth attempt at a Sydney Cup and I have fingers and toes crossed that this two-mile stalwart can have a late day in the sun. Narrowly beaten 12 months ago, he approaches this in similar form and looks a terrific chance each-way. ALOFT is a Williams/Howley runner with McEvoy aboard and a winning weight. Full respect to him. And of course to stablemate ALMANDIN who has enjoyed greater glories than this already. Suspect PERIBSEN and ORMITO are both each-way hopes with their light weights but SIR CHARLES ROAD gets a weight advantage for beating them last week.
Selections 2 Who Shot Thebarman 10 Aloft, 1 Almandin, 13 Sir Charles Road

Race 9:
Level weights (WFA) for these mares, with ALIZEE down the bottom the lone filly. 4 and 7 to head the mission. 1 and 14 could land handy with 5 as well. SILENT SEDITION is ever consistent and should be well set up, so too FOXPLAY, last year’s winner of this race. ZANBAGH might be approaching the end of her career but I still have faith she can run past most of these (she hasn’t recently admittedly). DAYSEE DOOM has a challenging draw that’s for sure. Could get stuck wide but we’ve seen that from her before and she never gives in. SPANISH REEF from left field (with SAMOVARE) and could surprise a few.
Selections 1 Daysee Doom, 2 Fox Play, 5 Silent Sedition, 8 Zanbagh

Race 10:
A seriously fascinating contest to close a great day. All mares/no fillies. Resumers 7 and 8 can scoot to the front but 1, 10, 16 (and maybe 8) can apply pressure from wide barriers. RAVI made a sound return and has options from her draw. Presumably will be well set up by a genuine speed, as will NIETA and SUGAR BELLA be. SECRET AGENDA won this last year (with 55.5kg) and finished runner-up in it two years ago. If you’re happy to forgive her latest (favourite in a G1) then she should be strongly considered. Next best RAIMENT back to 1200m after a below par showing.
Selections 5 Ravi, 13 Nieta, 11 Sugar Bella

Unibet – Race Comments:

Race 1:
ARISTOCRATIC MISS (6) Has been consistent without winning in all seven career starts so far. Looks well placed to go on with it after promising Sydney debut last start. CRISTAL EYES (8) Comes out of a Pakenham maiden but don’t let that put you off. This horse showed good style to deny her rivals there and the stable places them to win. Strong hope. MUSWELLBROOK (1) This horse meets it’s toughest field to date but last start win showed he is heading in the right direction. Keep safe. MOMENTUM FACTOR (3) Stylish maiden winner last time out and ready to step up to the next level now. Contender.

Race 2:
ISAURIAN (2) Possesses a handy turn of foot and the second placing behind I Am Excited reads very well for this race. Gets the chance to win here. RENEWAL (3) Always had alot of promise and again looks a major threat here. Confident this runner will go close. TORVILL (1) Looks a winning chance back to this company from the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes and has to be respected. Expected to fight out the finish. CALIFORNIA TURBO (8) This horse is very much on the up and was very impressive winning last start. Place chance looks most likely but would not surprise if this horse was fighting out the win too.

Race 3:
PURE ELATION (6) Rates well and is very hard to overlook after a most impressive win last time. Has the ability to go on with it and take this out. CRISTOBAL (7) No surprise to see a win here after two very good career starts so far. Worth keeping safe. FIESTA (2) Will hit the line strongly and only needs to produce previous form to be a winning hope here. SISTER SLEDGE (10) On debut finished 3rd to Estijaab and Pure Elation which reads very well for a race of this nature. Definite exotics hope.

Race 4:
JUST DREAMING (1) Handy animal who was not out of her depth in a Group 1 last start. She still has plenty of upside and commands respect here.. MANHATTAN MIST (5) Very consistent horse that has not finished out of the top two in all seven career starts so far. You would be mad to leave it out of your exotics. SERENE MISS (10) Should hit the line strongly as she did last time out. This field suits and has to go in all multiples. NEWSFAN (13) Showing some promise and won’t be far away. Represents a bit of value as an each way commodity.

Race 5:
VIRIDINE (1) Always making headway in the soft ground last start and shapes as one of the better sprinters around the country at the moment. Top prospects against this opposition. I AM EXCITED (10) Expect another strong showing as this horse is flying and can measure up here. She should take alot of holding out. ISAURIAN (5) Latest form looks good enough to step up into a race like this and be a threat to the placegetters. Might just be a touch below the top raters. PARIAH (3) Previous preparation form is very strong for a race like this but was just a touch disappointing first up. Gets a chance to bounce back here.

Race 6:
UNFORGOTTEN (3) Consistent filly who has a very impressive record 8:4-2-0. Plenty to like about her and will take a stack of beating. LUVALUVA (5) Has been racing in top form but has a slight query at the distance. Look for bold run. ALOISIA (1) Should be nearing peak fitness fourth up. Great run last start in the Vinery and should be in the finish. HIYAAM (2) Winner last start over 2000m who is racing in good order. Only needs to repeat her previous run to go close and is worth strong consideration.

Race 7:
WINX (9) Looking to make it back-to-back wins in this race. Cannot find a reason to think she won’t do it comfortably. HUMIDOR (3) Put in an abnormally poor run…
WINX (9) Looking to make it back-to-back wins in this race. Cannot find a reason to think she won’t do it comfortably. HUMIDOR (3) Put in an abnormally poor run last start. A return to near his best will see him running second. HAPPY CLAPPER (1) Career defining performance in the Doncaster Handicap. If he handles the step up to 2000m, he could give this a shake. GAILO CHOP (2) Races best over this trip. With a soft lead, he could prove to be a good place and exotics candidate.

Race 8:
ALMANDIN (1) World class stayer and Melbourne Cup champion who is ideally placed. Should be saluting the judge. CHARLES ROAD (13) Smart gelding racing in good form and should be fit enough. Hard to hold out. ALOFT (10) Having his first try at Group 1 level. In beautifully at the weights and is capable of taking this out. VENTURA STORM (4) Very strong last time out in the Chairmans when narrowly beaten. Has strong each way hopes in this race.

Race 9:
DIXIE BLOSSOMS (3) Genuine threat under these conditions. If the pace is on she will be storming home, big claims. DAYSEE DOOM (1) Run last start was better than it appears on paper. This is a classy mare that can return to winning ways here. FOXPLAY (2) Races well at this track and recent form is good enough against this lot. Each way all day. PROMPT RESPONSE (4) Looks the likely leader. Could prove hard to run down with a soft enough run in front.

Race 10:
QUILISTA (10) Progressive type. Races on speed and has lots of appeal. Should go close again here. SUGAR BELLA (11) Honest type and has a booming finish in her races. Has to be included and can win with any luck in the run. RAVI (5) Can figure in this grade and well worth thought with impressive second up record. Good prospect for the exotics at least. RAIMENT (4) Profiles nicely for this if you can forgive last start when ran into some trouble. Needs the right run but looks a value runner.

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 1:
ARISTOCRATIC MISS After finishing fourth in the VRC Sires two back came from well back when runner-up in the Baillieu Handicap over 1400m at Rosehill last start. Has been crying out for the mile and gets her chance to win a race. CRISTAL EYES Is an improving filly from the Hayes and Dabernig yard. After placings at Ballarat and Flemington broke through for a maiden win at Pakenham last start and looks the type that could go on with the job after a confidence boosting win. MUSWELLBROOK Improved considerably at second race start to win the Mornington Sires last start. Still has plenty of scope for improvement and has to be respected launching from the inside gate with the Hayes and Dabernig polish. BOLD ARIAL Has been placed last two at Canterbury and Warwick Farm and has bright place prospects again.

Race 2:
ISAURIAN Is a Godolphin Exceed And Excel colt who won his first two career starts before beating all but I Am Excited in the Darby Munro at Rosehill last start. Defeated the rest easily and is the one to beat here. RENEWAL Won successive races at Canterbury and Rosehill before finishing on the placegetters heels in the Phar Lap at Rosehill last start. Hasn’t raced for four weeks but has been kept up to the mark with a Rosehill trial placing and the 1400m looks perfect. SPARKY LAD Needed the run at Warwick Farm resuming and is a likely improver fitter second-up. WAIMEA BAY Won successive races at Taree and Rosehill earlier in the preparation and hasn’t been far from the winner at last two starts. Is worth including in the wider exotics from a good gate.

Race 3:
PURE ELATION Tested the Golden Slipper winner Estijaab to the limit in the Reisling two back before a confidence boosting win in a Warwick Farm maiden last start when she handled her rivals with consummate ease. She is right in play. KHULAASA After finishing runner-up at first two career starts won the Thoroughbred Breeders at Flemington last start. Still has scope for improvement and has to be respected with the Hayes and Dabernig polish. FIESTA Kept batting away when just over three-lengths from the winner in the Slipper last start. Three weeks between runs but has been kept up to the mark with a Rosehill trial placing and has place prospects here from a good gate. CRISTOBAL Was a Rosehill winner on debut before chasing home Sunlight in the Magic Night last start. That looks a solid form reference for this.

Race 4:
BON AMIS Arguably should have won the Newcastle Qualifier finishing second after blowing the start by a couple of lengths. Has an excellent record and just needs an even getaway to make amends. SERENE MISS Overcame a wide run in transit to win the Gosford Qualifier over 1200m last start. The step up to 1400m for the first time looks the only query. MANHATTAN MIST Hasn’t finished worse than second in his seven starts for in form trainer Kim Waugh. Ran second in the Wyong Qualifier before winning a benchmark 75 at Gosford last start. He’s a genuine winning chance with Brenton Avdulla in the saddle. POMELO Should be cherry ripe for this after finishing fourth in the Gosford Qualifier resuming from a break. Is a must for the wider exotics with the first-up run under her belt.

Race 5:
HOUTZEN Raced handy to the speed and was too good in the P.J. Bell this track and distance last week. There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed here and may well even be the leader. If that’s the case she will take plenty of running down again. VIRIDINE Won his first four career starts and has been solid in three subsequent runs in top grade including a closing third in the Galaxy last start taking on the older sprinters. Clearly the one to beat back to his own age under the set-weight conditions. SHE WILL REIGN The 2017 Golden Slipper winner and she has been a Group one winner in five subsequent runs winning the Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley in the Spring. Was well beaten in the William Reid at Moonee Valley last start but expecting her to bounce back against her own age here. I AM EXCITED Continues to take up a step when needed and is chasing four wins on the trot after winning the Darby Munro last start. There is nothing to suggest she won’t be in the finish again launching from an ideal gate.

Race 6:
UNFORGOTTEN Her breeding suggests she will relish the step up to 2400m and the way she finished of her race when second in the Vinery Stakes last start backs up that assertion. Has to be one of the key chances. LUVALUVA Finished fourth in the VRC Oaks in the Spring and has been terrific in three runs this preparation culminating in a tough win in the Adrian Knox last week. Rates a genuine winning chance. ALOISIA Has had no luck last couple being put out of business in the Australian Guineas two back before working hard in the run when third in the Vinery last start. Tough effort last start and on that would think she would run out the 2400m but Oaks failure in the Spring when a $1.80 favourite looks a red flag. Still one of the chances. SAVVY COUP Crosses the Tasman on the back of a strong New Zealand Oaks win. The New Zealand form generally holds up in the three-year-old staying races and this filly shouldn’t be under-estimated.

Race 7:
WINX This wonderful mare gets the chance to match the 25-wins of Black Caviar and record her 18th Group I success. Only bad luck will beat her and she could handle a considerable amount of that as well. Too short to back but that won’t stop us cheering her home. GAILO CHOP Was too good in the Ranvet this trip two back before seemingly struggling at 2400m in the Tancred last start. Back to 2000m brings him into play for the placings. HAPPY CLAPPER Was terrific winner the Doncaster last week but that was over his pet 1600m distance. The 2000m remains a genuine query for mine however he is just such a god galloper he has to go in the wider exotics. COMIN’ THROUGH Was terrific in the Doncaster last start chasing home Happy Clapper after working in the run. Goes up 7.5kg under the WFA Scale which is a huge query but still a place chance.

Race 8:
ALMANDIN The 2016 Melbourne Cup winner who returned to the winner’s list courtesy of an excellent Kerrin McEvoy ride in the Tancred last start. Proven at the two-mile and in form is the one to beat. SIR CHARLES ROAD After finishing on the placegetters heels in the Auckland Cup two runs back impressed with a tough win in the Chairmans Handicap last week. Drops 6kg here and has to be a key player. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN Was placed in the Sandown Cup this trip last Spring. The Stony Creek Cup winner three runs back carrying 61kg and the 50kg here keeps him under consideration. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN Hasn’t won a Group I since the 2014 Auckland Cup but continues to race consistently and the winner of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup in the Spring. Has improved at each of his three runs this time in culminating in a Tancred Stakes third last start. He will be somewhere near the money again.

Race 9:
SILENT SEDITION Controlled the speed in front to win the Mannerism at Caulfield before a closing third in the Coolmore at Rosehill last start. 28-days between runs but has been kept up to the mark with a Cranbourne trial win and is right in the mix. DIXIE BLOSSOMS Won the Guy Walter resuming three runs back and arguably should have won the Coolmore two back. Came from the back of the field when third in the Emancipation at Rosehill last and she is proven at the Randwick mile. Just needs even luck in running from the wide gate to be right in the finish. PROMPT RESPONSE Fought back strongly to win the Emancipation last start. Was narrowly beaten in the Myer Classic in the Spring over the mile after enduring a wide run in transit so the trip doesn’t present any concerns. She’s right in play. ALIZEE Won the Flight Stakes this track and distance in the Spring. Arguably didn’t see out the 2000m of the Vinery last start but the run over the trip gives her a good grounding for this and she is right in the mix.

Race 10:
SUGAR BELLA Wasn’t entirely suited in the soft going when runner-up in the Birthday Card last start behind Quilista. Is unbeaten in four good track runs and gets the chance to turn the tables on a drier surface. QUILISTA Gave nothing else a chance with an emphatic all the way victory in the Birthday Card last start. Just needs even luck in running from the wide gate to be in the finish again. SECRET AGENDA Was well beaten in the William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley last start but looks well placed back to her own sex under the set-weight and penalty conditions. LUBITON Resumes on the back of two solid trials at Rosehill. Won three races last preparation including a Canterbury win first-up and is a must for the wider exotics.

Sunshine Coast

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 2, No. 1 Blue Book – 4 stars
Race 5, No. 15 Cabierro – 3 stars
Race 8, No. 8 Cruze – EACH-WAY – 3.5 stars

 

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