FIFA World Cup – Quarter-finals – Brazil v Belgium – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a match centre with betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup quarter-final fixture between Brazil and Belgium. The game kicks off on the 7th of July at 4:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS.

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Brazil

Brazil

  • FIFA World Rank: 2
  • Elo Rating: 1
  • Qualifying: First place in the CONMEBOL qualifiers with a 12-5-1 record.

Squad:

  • Coach: Adenor Leonardo Bacchi (Tite)
  • Goalkeepers: Alisson (Roma), Ederson (Manchester City), Cassio (Corinthians)
  • Defenders: Miranda (Inter Milan), Marquinhos (Paris Saint-Germain), Thiago Silva (Paris Saint-Germain), Geromel (Gremio), Marcelo (Real Madrid), Fagner (Corinthians), Danilo (Manchester City), Filipe Luis (Atletico Madrid)
  • Midfielders: Casemiro (Real Madrid), Fernandinho (Manchester City), Paulinho (Barcelona), Renato Augusto (Beijing Guoan), Philippe Coutinho (Barcelona), Willian (Chelsea), Fred (Shakhtar Donetsk)
  • Forwards: Neymar (Paris Saint-Germain), Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City), Firmino (Liverpool), Taison (Shakhtar Donetsk), Douglas Costa (Juventus)

Recent results:

  • Brazil 2 – 0 Mexico
    02/07/2018
    FIFA World Cup, played in Russia
  • Serbia 0 – 2 Brazil
    27/06/2018
    FIFA World Cup, played in Russia
  • Brazil 2 – 0 Costa Rica
    22/06/2018
    FIFA World Cup, played in Russia
  • Brazil 1 – 1 Switzerland
    17/06/2018
    FIFA World Cup, played in Russia
  • Austria 0 – 3 Brazil
    10/06/2018
    Friendly, played in Austria
  • Croatia 0 – 2 Brazil
    03/06/2018
    Friendly, played in England
  • Germany 0 – 1 Brazil
    27/03/2018
    Friendly, played in Germany
  • Russia 0 – 3 Brazil
    23/03/2018
    Friendly, played in Russia
  • England 0 – 0 Brazil
    14/11/2017
    Friendly, played in England
  • Japan 1 – 3 Brazil
    10/11/2017
    Friendly, played in France
  • Brazil 3 – 0 Chile
    10/10/2017
    WC qualifiers, played in Brazil
  • Bolivia 0 – 0 Brazil
    05/10/2017
    WC qualifiers, played in Bolivia

Statistics: (last four years):

  • H2H Record: 34-9-6
  • O/U record
    • O/U 0.5 record: 46-3
    • O/U 1.5 record: 38-11
    • O/U 2.5 record: 24-25
    • O/U 3.5 record: 12-37
    • O/U 4.5 record: 4-45
    • O/U 5.5 record: 2-47
  • Wins
    • Total wins: 34
    • Won by 1 goal: 9
    • Won by 2 goals: 12
    • Won by 3 goals: 8
    • Won by 4 goals: 3
    • Won by 5 goals: 1
    • Won by 5+ goals: 1
    • Won to nil 25
  • Losses
    • Total losses: 6
    • Lost by 1 goal: 3
    • Lost by 2 goals: 1
    • Lost by 3 goals: 1
    • Lost by 4 goals: 0
    • Lost by 5 goals: 0
    • Lost by 5+ goals: 1
    • Lost to nil 5
  • Clean Sheets and BTTS
    • Total Games: 49
    • Clean Sheets: 28
    • Held Scoreless: 8
    • Both Teams Scored: 16
Belgium

Belgium

  • FIFA World Rank: 3
  • Elo Rating: 8
  • Qualifying: Won Group H with a 9-1-0 record in the UEFA Confederation qualification.

Squad:

  • Coach: Roberto Martínez (Spain)
  • Goalkeepers: Thibaut Courtois (Chelsea), Simon Mignolet (Liverpool), Koen Casteels (VfL Wolfsburg)
  • Defenders: Toby Alderweireld Tottenham), Dedryck Boyata (Celtic), Jan Vertonghen (Tottenham), Vincent Kompany (Manchester City), Thomas Vermaelen (Barcelona), Thomas Meunier (PSG)
  • Midfielders: Youri Tielemans (AS Monaco), Axel Witsel (Tianjin Quanjian), Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City), Mousa Dembele (Tottenham), Leander Dendoncker (Anderlecht), Marouane Fellaini (Manchester United), Thorgan Hazard (Borussia Monchengladbach), Dries Mertens (Na
  • Forwards: Michy Batshuayi (Chelsea), Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United), Eden Hazard (Chelsea), Adnan Januzaj (Real Sociedad), Yannick Carrasco (Atletico Madrid)

Recent results:

  • Belgium 3 – 2 Japan
    02/07/2018
    FIFA World Cup, played in Russia
  • England 0 – 1 Belgium
    28/06/2018
    FIFA World Cup, played in Russia
  • Belgium 5 – 2 Tunisia
    23/06/2018
    FIFA World Cup, played in Russia
  • Belgium 3 – 0 Panama
    18/06/2018
    FIFA World Cup, played in Russia
  • Belgium 4 – 1 Costa Rica
    11/06/2018
    Friendly, played in Belgium
  • Belgium 3 – 0 Egypt
    06/06/2018
    Friendly, played in Belgium
  • Belgium 0 – 0 Portugal
    02/06/2018
    Friendly, played in Belgium
  • Belgium 4 – 0 Saudi Arabia
    27/03/2018
    Friendly, played in Belgium
  • Belgium 1 – 0 Japan
    14/11/2017
    Friendly, played in Belgium
  • Belgium 3 – 3 Mexico
    10/11/2017
    Friendly, played in Belgium
  • Belgium 4 – 0 Cyprus
    10/10/2017
    WC qualifiers, played in Belgium
  • Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 – 4 Belgium
    07/10/2017
    WC qualifiers, played in Bosnia-Herzegovina

Statistics: (last four years):

  • H2H Record: 34-8-5
  • O/U record
    • O/U 0.5 record: 45-2
    • O/U 1.5 record: 39-8
    • O/U 2.5 record: 31-16
    • O/U 3.5 record: 23-24
    • O/U 4.5 record: 14-33
    • O/U 5.5 record: 9-38
  • Wins
    • Total wins: 34
    • Won by 1 goal: 12
    • Won by 2 goals: 6
    • Won by 3 goals: 7
    • Won by 4 goals: 4
    • Won by 5 goals: 1
    • Won by 5+ goals: 4
    • Won to nil 19
  • Losses
    • Total losses: 5
    • Lost by 1 goal: 2
    • Lost by 2 goals: 3
    • Lost by 3 goals: 0
    • Lost by 4 goals: 0
    • Lost by 5 goals: 0
    • Lost by 5+ goals: 0
    • Lost to nil 3
  • Clean Sheets and BTTS
    • Total Games: 47
    • Clean Sheets: 21
    • Held Scoreless: 5
    • Both Teams Scored: 23


Commentary

Brazil reached the Round of 16 as the winners of Group E, despite commencing their campaign in underwhelming fashion. They laboured to a 1-1 draw against Switzerland, then defeated Costa Rica 2-0, with both goals coming in second half stoppage time. Brazil then put in their best group stage performance in their 2-0 win over Serbia, with the side showing glimpses of the high quality football that they’re capable of. In the Round of 16 Brazil defeated Mexico 2-0. They started slowly but worked their into the game and finished in dominant fashion. Despite the criticism of their form, Brazil remain unbeaten in 15 games, with an 11-4-0 record and just 3 goals conceded. Looking back further, they have lost just one match in their last 23 fixtures, scoring 51 goals while conceding just 5. They allowed Mexico only one shot on target during the Round of 16 match. In team news, defensive midfielder Casemiro is suspended for this game after picking up two yellow cards.

Belgium coasted into the Round of 16 as the winners of Group G. Following a comfortable 3-0 win over Panama and 5-2 win over Tunisia, Belgium beat England 1-0 in a game where both sides fielded largely second-string teams. In the Round of 16 Belgium came back from 0-2 down to defeat Japan 3-2. In doing so they became the first side to come back from two goals down to win a World Cup knockout game inside 90 minutes since 1966. On one hand, their self-belief, attacking strengths and ability to switch to plan B are to be applauded, but at the same time going down 2-0 in the first place is a concern. Ignoring their clash against England, which featured a second-string team, Belgium have been a goal-scoring machine. They averaged 4.3 goals during qualifying and scored 11 times during their 4 friendlies. No other team has scored more goals this tournament than Belgium with 12. The problem, however is defence, with the likes of Tunisia and Japan scoring twice. Nevertheless, Belgium continue to improve upon their impressive record. Since losing to Spain in a friendly in 2016, they have gone 18-5-0 and are on a six-game winning streak. In team news, Roberto Martinez has acknowledged a need for “power”, which could mean that Marouane Fellaini will start.

Betting

bet365 odds (subject to change):

Compare the latest bookmaker odds for Brazil vs. Belgium

Historically Brazil have a 3-0-1 record against Belgium, but their last meeting was in 2002, so the data isn’t too helpful.

24 Apr 1963 – Belgium v Brazil – 5-1 International Friendly
02 Jun 1965 – Brazil v Belgium – 5-0 International Friendly
12 Oct 1988 – Belgium v Brazil – 1-2 International Friendly
17 Jun 2002 – Brazil v Belgium – 2-0 FIFA World Cup
Source: 11v11.com

Brazil find themselves in a World Cup quarter-final for the seventh successive time. They have only gone out twice at this stage during that stretch, however Brazil’s last six World Cup defeats have all been to European opponents.

Belgium have a poor 3-1-8 record in World Cup knockout games. They have never kept a clean sheet and have conceded 28 goals in 12 matches Three of their last four knockout stage defeats were to nil. The caveat to these stats, however, is the current Belgian squad is arguably the best in their history, with most of their key players in the primes of their careers.

Both sides have looked strong offensively, but the difference is Brazil have also been tight defensively. They have kept clean sheets in 10 of their last 12 fixtures, which included opponents like Germany and England, and their last seven wins have been to nil. Belgium have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 12 fixtures, however they’ve only kept their opponents scoreless in 2 of their last 5 games.

While this fixture does have the potential for goals, quarter-final fixtures have been historically low scoring. From the 2002 World Cup onward, only 3 of the 16 quarter-final matches saw over 2.5 goals, while only 7 of the 16 matches saw over 1.5 goals.

Betting tip: back Brazil to progress to the semi-finals at 1.58 (Unibet). Given both sides’ strong records of avoiding defeat, for those looking for more risk, back the 90-minute draw at 3.50 (Unibet).

Notes

 

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