Saturday Horse Racing Tips – September 15, 2018

The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Saturday, September 15. The focus is on the Bobbie Lewis Quality (Race 5), Let’s Elope Stakes (Race 6), the Makybe Diva Stakes (Race 7) and Danehill Stakes (Race 8) at Flemington, as well as The Shorts (Race 4), Bill Ritchie Handicap (Race 5), Colgate Optic White Stakes (Race 6) and Tea Rose Stakes (Race 7) at Randwick. Morphettville and Doomen are also covered.

More tips and previews will be added as they become available.

Promotions

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Best bets of the day

Flemington Race 5, No.4 Rich Charm
Flemington Race 6, No.2 Bella Martini
Flemington Race 7, No.10 Kings Will Dream

Randwick Race 4, No.1 Redzel
Randwick Race 6, No.6 Winx

Doomben

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Race 4, No.1 Cannyescent – 4 stars
Race 5, No.4 Man of Choice – 3.5 stars
Race 6, No.9 Goldfinch – 3.5 stars

Flemington

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Race 3, No.1 Theanswermyfriend – BEST BET – 5 stars
Race 9, No.15 Furrion – 4 stars

Quaddie: 1,7,8,9,13/3,11/2,3,4,5/15

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 7:
Back Kings Will Dream (4.60) to win.

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 7, #10, KINGS WILL DREAM

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Race 2: BACK (WIN) Music Bay for 2 units
Race 7: BACK (WIN) Humidor for 2 units

Betfair – Race Assessment:

Race 8:
BACK (WIN) Spin at $9+ (stake 0.5% of your total bank)
BACK (PLACE) Spin at $2.30+ (stake 1.5% of your bank)

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 5:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #4 Rich Charm

Race 6:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #9 La Bella Diosa
Lay – #2 Bella Martini

Race 7:
Betting Confidence: High
Lay – #11 Kementari

Race 8:
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #3 Native Soldier

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Race 1: JAAMEH
Race 2: MULTAJA
Race 3: CLIFF’S EDGE
Race 4: BRUTAL
Race 5: HEY DOC
Race 6: I AM A STAR
Race 7: 1. KINGS WILL DREAM, 2. Humidor, 3. Kementari, 4. Happy Clapper
Race 8: EF TROOP
Race 9: SELF SENSE

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 5: 1 Hey Doc, 2 Crack Me Up, 4 Rich Charm, 6 First Among Equals
Race 6: 1 I Am A Star, 2 Bella Martini, 5 Miss Gunpowder, 8 Merriest
Race 7: 2 Black Hart Bart, 10 Kings Will Dream, 11 Kementari, 12 Grunt
Race 8: 2 Marcel From Madrid, 3 Native Soldier, 4 Ef Troop, 12 Tavisan

Unibet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 5:
HEY DOC (1) Races well second up winning 2 from 4 starts. Was fighting out the finish when winning three runs back at Moonee Valley and won’t be far away during the run. Could prove hard to beat. KEMONO (7) Will be hitting the line strongly. Was 1.6L behind the winner at Caulfield in first Australian start. Should be fitter for that and the jockey thought the horse would appreciate a more solid speed up front which it may get here. Will take plenty of beating. RICH CHARM (4) Fought on well to win three runs back at Caulfield and second up from a break. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Can win this. CRACK ME UP (2) Crept into 4th last run at Doomben and has very good finishing speed. Marginal chance.
Selections: 1 Hey Doc, 7 Kemono, 4 Rich Charm, 2 Crack Me Up

Race 6:
BELLA MARTINI (2) Having second run back from a spell. Winner two runs back around here but carrying more weight than last time. Contender. I AM A STAR (1) Strong record at Flemington. Did well to run into 3rd last run at Caulfield. Genuine winning chance. MERRIEST (8) Fought on gamely when winning last run at Moonee Valley and having third run back from a spell. Strong form this preparation winning 1 from 2 starts. Each way hope. LA BELLA DIOSA (9) Won narrowly last start at Caulfield and will be motoring home late. Exotics chance.
Selections: 2 Bella Martini, 1 I Am A Star, 8 Merriest, 9 La Bella Diosa

Race 7:
KEMENTARI (11) Craig Williams gets the ride today and will be looking to slot in midfield from the gate. This looks very suitable. KINGS WILL DREAM (10) Should see the best of this one today with the step up in trip and longer straight. Winning claims. HUMIDOR (3) Has brilliant stats at the track/trip. Will be looking for gaps late and can finish over the top of them. HAPPY CLAPPER (1) Performs at his best over 1600m and will take improvement from his first up efforts. Take the each way option if deciding to play.
Selections: 11 Kementari, 10 Kings Will Dream, 3 Humidor, 1 Happy Clapper

Race 8:
NATIVE SOLDIER (3) Having third run back from a spell. Did a good job when winning last run at Caulfield but facing a stronger class. Capable of taking this out. MARCEL FROM MADRID (2) Second up from a spell. Did enough to win two runs back at Morphettville but racing in stronger company here. Definite winning chance. OCEAN KNIGHT (11) Got the cash when winning three runs back at Caulfield and second up. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Consider an each way bet. TAVISAN (12) Having third run back from a break. Left nothing to chance when winning two runs back at Cranbourne but rising in grade. Marginal hope.
Selections: 3 Humidor, 2 Marcel From Madrid, 11 Ocean Knight, 12 Tavisan

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 5:
Good race for RICH CHARM, who was forced wide fresh at Caulfield and charged home, running straight past KEMONO (likely fitter) and FIRST AMONG EQUALS (covered ground/fitter also?). He has drawn perfectly and drops to 55kg. HEY DOC was outsped fresh at 1000m with his 60kg but he battled well. His last second-up run was a 2.6L fourth to Vega Magic in a Group 1 Memsie Stakes. CRACK ME UP goes close if he runs to that Stradbroke effort but 1200m, and drawn in are little queries. I’M WESLEY had little hope fresh. GRANDE ROSSO has Hey Doc form here at Flemington.
Selections: 4. Rich Charm, 1. Hey Doc, 2. Crack Me Up, 7. Kemono

Race 6:
SPEED: 2 may lead 8. 1, 5, 7, 11, 14 are capable of being handy. Good race. BELLA MARTINI was heavily backed fresh but unsuited ridden off a slow speed. Liked her last 100m there, making ground on Land of Plenty and Osborne Bulls. Not many do that! LA BELLA DIOSA was a brilliant winner fresh at the unsuitable 1100m. She has beaten Global Glamour at 1400m. PETITION just missed MERRIEST second up last prep. She needs another win! Merriest won a high-rating race MV and no shock runner-up Tulip then ran super behind Land of Plenty last week. I AM A STAR, MISS GUNPOWDER, PAYROLL are hopes.
Selections: 2. Bella Martini, 9. La Bella Diosa, 13. Petition, 8. Merriest

Race 7:
Not sure speedmap. 9 has led but that was 2000m. 5, 1, 6 go forward but are not natural leaders. 2, 10, 12 can sit handy at this trip, so too 11? KEMENTARI was the best run in the race for mine in Memsie when wide/no cover yet surged at the line. HUMIDOR, of course, won that race and he is a much, much better horse here at Flemington and at 1600m. KINGS WILL DREAM has been fabulous both runs back and huge tick 1600m for him. HAPPY CLAPPER didn’t look to handle Caulfield. He improves lengths here! D-Day for GRUNT. Place hopes COMIN’ THROUGH and BLACK HEART BART.
Selections: 11. Kementari, 10. Kings Will Dream, 3. Humidor, 1. Happy Clapper

Race 8:
MARCEL FROM MADRID was wide against track pattern MV fresh yet kept closing in a very good return. TAVISAN led there and made the smart Brutal (ran earlier) work to beat him. OCEAN KNIGHT worked home sweetly there off a great trial. Does he want further now? NATIVE SOLDIER went through the roof in McNeil: led a strong speed and kept running! Very hard to beat here. EF TROOP was very wide fresh and has since trialled brilliantly. ENCRYPTION and SPIN are in the mix.
Selections: 2. Marcel From Madrid, 3. Native Soldier, 11. Ocean Knight, 4. Ef Troop

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 5:
HEY DOC has shown early speed in races to date and seven from eight wins have been in the dry, tough to beat. RICH CHARM came on to finish midfield last start at Caulfield when resuming and six from nine wins have been in the dry, sneaky chance. FIRST AMONG EQUALS finished one and a half lengths off the winner last start at Caulfield when fresh, capable of getting into the money. CRACK ME UP first-up after 14 week break and won one of two trials, place claims.

Race 6:
Looks a toss up between the top two selections. BELLA MARTINI has the speed to overcome drawing the widest barrier, a close top selection. MISS GUNPOWDER in strong form with two wins from nine attempts this campaign and has the speed to overcome an unfavourable draw, can figure. MERRIEST strong in winning last start at Moonee Valley and has a lot of early speed, don’t dismiss. I AM A STAR placed last start at Caulfield and Ben Melham has had success aboard previously, could threaten.

Race 7:
Stand-out between the top two picks. KEMENTARI only just missed in driving finish last start in the Memsie Stakes. Won once and placed three times in seven Group I races, commands respect. KINGS WILL DREAM only just missed in driving finish last start in the Memsie Stakes and known to be strong late, expect to be right up there. BLACK HEART BART narrowly beaten at long odds last start in the Memsie Stakes and won five of 22 Group I attempts, not without each-way claims. GRUNT rates highly with Damien Oliver aboard and won two of three as a favourite, place only.

Race 8:
EF TROOP just missed as favourite last start at Doomben when resuming and trial win in the 35 days since last race adds confidence, the testing material. MARCEL FROM MADRID ran two lengths back from the winner last start at Moonee Valley when resuming and won at Morphettville in only second-up attempt, don’t treat lightly. NATIVE SOLDIER won at big odds last start at Caulfield and all three wins have come in the dry, not without each-way claims. TAVISAN narrowly beaten at long odds last start at Moonee Valley and a winner at first outing this prep, strong place chance.

Betfair – Race Analysis & Selections:

Race 5:
RICH CHARM was good first up at Caulfield when running on into fourth behind Ball Of Muscle in G3 company. Should improve off that effort and goes well not only at the course but the distance as well. Rates well against his rivals and can get the win today. HEY DOC was also good first up when fifth in the Carlyon Stakes. Has a good second up record previously and was a Group 1 winner over 1200m last campaign. Likely to be in the mix again today with KEMONO also likely to improve off his Australian debut at Caulfield last start.
1. Rich Charm – 5 stars
2. Hey Doc – 4 stars
3. Kemeno – 4 stars

Race 6:
BELLA MARTINI battled on pretty well for fourth when resuming in the Regal Roller last start and should take good improvement from that effort. Group 2 winner last campaign who is undefeated when second up previously and despite the wide draw will take plenty of beating. I AM A STAR has produced two solid efforts this campaign, placing in the Cockram Stakes last start. Building nicely this campaign and third up over 1400m will be ready to fire. LA BELLA DIOSA resumed a winner at Caulfield last start and can build on that effort second up.
1. Bella Martini – 5 stars
2. I Am A Star – 4 stars
3. La Bella Diosa – 4 stars

Race 7:
The Memsie looks the key form for this race. KINGS WILL DREAM ran on strongly to finish third in that race, beaten by a narrow margin and he will relish the step up to the mile now where he has a solid record. Ran well here at Flemington last campaign winning 2/2 and this sets up nicely for him today. HUMIDOR was given a terrific ride by Damien Lane to win the Memsie and will also appreciate the rise in trip. Does a bit wrong in his races but with luck from the inside draw will be in the finish. KEMENTARI did not have a great deal go his way last start when narrowly beaten in the Memsie. Won over the mile previously and with more luck can turn the tables.
1. Kings Will Dream – 5 stars
2. Humidor – 4 stars
3. Kementari – 4 stars

Race 8:
NATIVE SOLDIER was terrific when winning the G3 McNeil at Caulfield last start and steps out at Flemington for the first time today. Building a terrific career record and third up today should be ready to improve again. Goes on top ahead of MARCEL FROM MADRID who won both races in debut campaign before having no luck first up in the McKenzie. Still finished a solid fourth and will improve again. OCEAN KNIGHT out of the same race also comes into consideration.
1. Native Soldier – 5 stars
2. Marcel From Madrid – 4 stars
3. Ocean Knight – 4 stars

Morphettville

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Race 2, No.1 Fighting Harada – 4 stars
Race 5, No.6 Tamasa – BEST BET – 4.5 stars

Randwick

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Race 3, No.1 Luvaluva – 4 stars
Race 7, No.8 Santa Catarina – each-way – 3.5 stars
Race 8, No.5 Avilius – 4.5 stars

Quaddie: 6/1,2,3,8/5/2.3.9,11,12

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 4:
Tips:
1. Redzel
2. Invincible Star
3. Ball Of Muscle
4. English
Suggested Bet:
Back Redzel (1.85) to win

Race 6:
Back Le Romain (2.70) (pictured below) to win in the Winx-Out market.

Race 9:
Back Trekking (3.80) to win.

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 1, #2, RHYMING PUPPET – value bet
Race 5, #2, PIERATA – lay bet (bet against this horse with Betfair)
Race 8, #5, AVILIUS – best bet

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 4:
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #1 Redzel

Race 5:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Lay – #2 Pierata

Race 6:
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #7 Egg Tart; #6 Winx

Race 7
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #2 Oohood; #4 Outback Barbie
Lay – #1 El Dorado Dreaming:

Race 8:
Betting Confidence: High
Lay – #5 Avilius

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Race 1: CACCINI
Race 2: SANTOS
Race 3: LUVALUVA
Race 4: REDZEL
Race 5: PIERATA
Race 6: 1. WINX, 2. Unforgotten, 3. Ace High, 4. Le Romain
Race 7: EL DORADO DREAMING
Race 8: AVILIUS
Race 9: TREKKING

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 4: 1 Redzel, 2 Brave Smash, 4 English, 9 Invincible Star
Race 5: 2 Pierata, 8 Siege of Quebec, 11 Kaonic
Race 6: 1 Le Romain, 5 Ace High, 6 Winx, 8 Unforgotten
Race 7: 2 Oohood, 3 Fiesta, 5 Pretty in Pink, 10 Miss Fabulass

Unibet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 4:
REDZEL (1) Returned to racing in good form last start. Looks poised to take this out on his way to another crack at The Everest. INVINCIBLE STAR (9) Will benefit from her first up efforts and should be fitter now. If anything is going to beat Redzel, she could be the one. ENGLISH (4) Dual Group 1 winning mare who looks ready to go after two barrier trials. Watch out for her coming home late, each way the play. BRAVE SMASH (2) Gets the appointment of Hugh Bowman today and should position nicely from the gate. This is not at all out of reach.
Selections: 1 Redzel, 9 Invincible Star, 4 English, 2 Brave Smash

Race 5:
PIERATA (2) Second up from a spell. Fought on well to win last run at this track and looks well placed in this grade. Very hard to beat. PARET (12) Handy enough when winning last start at Rosehill and has drawn to do little work. Should get going late. Must respect. SIEGE OF QUEBEC (8) Dashed home into 2nd two runs back at this course and should race on the speed. Right in the thick of it here and is a major player. TOM MELBOURNE (4) Having second run back from a break. Ran on strongly when 2nd last run here and has plenty of early speed. Market watch advised.
Selections: 2 Pierata, 12 Paret, 8 Siege of Quebec, 4 Tom Melbourne

Race 6:
WINX (6) Showed last start she is racing better than ever. Looks set to take out another Group 1. LE ROMAIN (1) Should race on the speed and will be trying to fend off the challengers late. Quinella and place claims here. UNFORGOTTEN (8) Looks set for a big preparation. Will be flashing home late if the speed is on up front. ACE HIGH (5) Will likely get even better over more ground. Should be thrown in your exotic bets.
Selections: 6 Winx, 1 Le Romain, 8 Unforgotten, 5 Ace High

Race 7:
EL DORADO DREAMING (1) Won narrowly two runs back at this course and will be motoring home late. Appears well in this. PRETTY IN PINK (5) Having second run back from a break. Did a good job when winning two runs back at Scone. Looks promising in this race. FIESTA (3) Third up from a spell. Was fighting out the finish when winning two runs back at this course. Winning chance in this line up. OOHOOD (2) Third up. Showed a good turn of foot when 2nd three runs back at this course. Has each way claims.
Selections: 1 El Dorado Dreaming, 5 Pretty In Pink, 3 Fiesta, 2 Oohood

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 4:
Some very speedy horses here with BALL OF MUSCLE and INVINCIBLE STAR set to scorch. Everest favourite REDZEL gets to stalk and there’s no reason to turn away from him after his deeds on return. BRAVE SMASH failed to reel in BALL OF MUSCLE at Caulfield but may well be better for that run. He should set up in a lovely position, ready to pounce late along with REDZEL. ENGLISH the real blouser but she has run unplaced in this race the last two years (and at $2.25 and $4.40).
Selections: 1. Redzel, 2. Brave Smash, 9. Invincible Star, 4. English

Race 5:
6 and 9 were withdrawn soon after acceptances were taken. That still left 4, 5, 10, 11 and 12 accepted for Newcastle on Friday (12 earlier here today as well) so this is a lineup that is set to be further diminished. PIERATA draws deep but he could potentially end up in a small(ish) field and should still be able to negotiate a decent position in run. 6 weeks since his Missile win but won a trial easily on August 20. No knock at all on where he’s at. TOM MELBOURNE is a figure of fun to many but he was genuinely unlucky not to score first-up. INVICTUS PRINCE has a last start 2nd to Winx and trialled earlier this week, just as he did before running 2nd to Winx!
Selections: 2. Pierata, 4. Tom Melbourne, 5. Invictus Prince

Race 6:
There was a fleeting feeling when the super mare returned, when on the bend and niggled at, I felt a tad concerned. I thought for one tense second that she might not be the same, but she balanced up and cruised on by and put that thought to shame. She wows us with her power, to watch her is a blessing, but also there are moments (brief!) when she can keep us guessing. The greatest horse I’ve ever seen is out to thrill again, and now we sense that, start by start, we near a thrilling end. To the Turnbull and of course a fourth Cox Plate she’ll go around, but this maybe (could be? maybe?) her last race in Sydney town. There’s nothing here that threatens her – that’s gold-plate logic right? – so expect another triumph in the Colgate Optic White. Astonishing, phenomenal – I could adulate aplenty. Can I note the equine G.O.A.T. will notch up Group One number 20. So find your favourite vantage point (hold on, I’ll get the drinks) and cheer the all-time legend, all hail the mighty WINX!
Selections: 6. Winx, 8. Unforgotten, 1. Le Romain, 5. Ace High

Race 7:
Terrific bunch of fillies here. Look for SYMI to lead the mission. SANGITA is a 62 rater and EL DORADO DREAMING 101 but the former has beaten the latter and was within a length at their only other meeting. Ideally she should be getting weight from all of these but we’re getting what we’re getting and after being badly held up on resumption I am very happy to get involved with her again. Hopefully at similar odds. PRETTY IN PINK and FUTOOH were both tremendous first-up but might have to settle further back than is ideal.
Selections: 13. Sangita, 5. Pretty In Pink, 7. Futooh, 3. Fiesta

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 4:
INVINCIBLE STAR has a lot of early speed and drops in weight, major contender. REDZEL won last start at Randwick when fresh and proven perfromer on a soft track, in with a chance. ENGLISH first-up after 16 week break and proven first-up runner winning in three of six attempts, place claims. BRAVE SMASH placed last start at Caulfield when resuming. Comes to hand quickly and placed at Caulfield when last second-up, place chance.

Race 5:
Impossible to go past the top pick. PIERATA back from let-up and won last start in the Missile Stakes when fresh, the testing material. SIEGE OF QUEBEC on a seven day back-up and placed when fresh, place claims. KAONIC can’t knock the form winning two in a row at Randwick and drops 5.5kg from last run, capable of getting into the money. FLOW 2 wins from six attempts this campaign and ran on strong to finish on the winner’s heels last start at Hawkesbury, strong place chance.

Race 6:
This looks like a one act affair. WINX last start win at Randwick took streak to 26 in a row and a 19 time Group I winner, standout top pick. LE ROMAIN won three of 14 Group I attempts and a winner at first outing this prep, place hope. ACE HIGH winner of two Group I races and should run fitter for past attempts, place only. UNFORGOTTEN has won once and placed once in four Group I attempts, capable of getting into the money with a bit of luck.

Race 7:
OOHOOD finished midfield last start in the Furious Stakes and should run fitter for past attempts, the testing material. FIESTA a winner at first outing this prep and chased well to fall just short last start in the Furious Stakes, the real danger in the race. PRETTY IN PINK has won or placed in all three races so far and in the money last start running third in the Furious Stakes when fresh, could upset. MISS FABULASS a winner at first outing this prep and ran sixth last start in the Furious Stakes, place only.

Betfair – Race Analysis & Selections:

Race 4:
All eyes on the Everest favourite following his slashing win first up in the Concorde Stakes – can they turn the tables? It appears unlikely. REDZEL was below his customary best last preparation, but returned with a bang last start and it’s hard seeing him take a backwards step racing second up. Drawn to get a lovely trail behind the speed and should prove very hard to hold out. INVINCIBLE STAR was no match for the former first up, but should improve sharply with that run under her belt and gets her chance at the weights. ENGLISH can fire fresh and is not one to be taken lightly.
1. Redzel – 5 stars
2. Invincible Star – 5 stars
3. English – 4 stars

Race 5:
Big watch on to see who goes around at Newcastle on Friday, either way it is shaping up as a very interesting contest. PIERATA comes here off a minor setback, but trust Hickman to have him spot on and by all reports he hasn’t missed any work. No favours with the draw here, but can press forward and looks to set a decent standard on best form. Hard to beat. KAONIC has returned two encouraging wins and while this is a lot harder, he has always given the impression he would be up to this. Racing on the fresh side (28 days) and looms as a major threat. TOM MELBOURNE will no doubt be right there.
1. Pierata – 5 stars
2. Kaonic – 4 stars
3. Tom Melbourne – 4 stars

Race 6:
Easily the main highlight of the afternoon with champion mare WINX set to notch up Group 1 win number 20!! She was back as good as ever last start and she is sure to have their measure here. Untouchable at a mile and beyond and once into the clear it should simply be a case of how far Bowman wants to win by. Stablemate UNFORGOTTEN shapes as the most likely to run second, in what should be the perfect platform heading towards the Epsom in two weeks time. LE ROMAIN had excuses last start and has drawn to get a much kinder run in transit. Has to be kept safe.
1. Winx – 5 stars
2. Unforgotten – 4 stars
3. Le Romain – 4 stars

Race 7:
Wide open fillies’ contest with a near capacity field set to line up in this year’s Group 2 Tea Rose Stakes. EL DORADO DREAMING surprised everyone in the Sires’ Produce Stakes but confirmed that level of performance when very unlucky in the Champagne Stakes. Two trials have been very good and from the good draw she should be right in the finish. PRETTY IN PINK closed off well in the Furious Stakes and is sure to derive good improvement from that run. No favours with the draw, but still has to be kept safe. FIESTA is a solid as a rock and with the right run in transit, she is sure to be in the finish again. Host of chances away from that, deep race!
1. El Dorado Dreaming – 5 stars
2. Pretty In Pink – 4 stars
3. Fiesta – 4 stars

 

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