Saturday Horse Racing Tips – October 27, 2018

The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Saturday, October 27. The Group 1 Manikato Stakes (Race 7) on Friday at Moonee Valley is also included.

On Saturday the focus is on the Powerflo Solutions Stakes (Race 3), Australia Stakes (Race 5), Fillies Classic (Race 6), Crystal Mile (Race 7), Moonee Valley Gold Cup (Race 8), Cox Plate (Race 9) and Vase (Race 10) at Moonee Valley.

Selected races at Randwick are also covered.

More tips and previews will be added as they become available.

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Best bets of the day

Moonee Valley (Sat) Race 3, No. 2 Savatiano
Moonee Valley (Sat) Race 7, No. 9 Siege Of Quebec
Moonee Valley (Sat) Race 8, No. 6 The Taj Mahal
Moonee Valley (Sat) Race 9, No. 6 Winx
Moonee Valley (Sat) Race 10, No. 13 Verry Elleegant

Randwick Race 2, No. 2 Stella Victoria

Friday

Moonee Valley

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 7: Back U S Navy Flag (7.00) to win.

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #6 Spirit Of Valor; #2 Kementari; #8 U S Navy Flag

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 7: 1 Brave Smash, 2 Kementari, 4 Voodoo Lad, 14 Sunlight

BetEasy – The King’s Tips:

Race 7:
14. Sunlight (5 stars)
4. Voodoo Lad (4 stars)
2. Kementari (3 stars)
1. Brave Smash (3 stars)

Unibet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 7:
SUNLIGHT (14) This is tougher than previous but gets the benefit of a weight drop and a soft barrier. Likely to prove too speedy for the rest of the field, on top selection. KEMENTARI (2) Has been thereabouts this prep but yet to put a win on the board. With any speed on up front, he will be charging home late. HOUTZEN (10) Ready to peak third up from a spell and should get a soft run in transit. Each way claims. BRAVE SMASH (1) Likely to go better this time around with the prospect of a dry track. Can show up in this at odds.
Selections: 14 Sunlight, 2 Kementari, 10 Houtzen, 1 Brave Smash

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 7:
Cracking edition! No shortage of speed with 2,5,10,13,14 likely to go forward. U S NAVY FLAG didn’t go a yard in the Everest on a bog track, forgiving! Will settle handily and may need a touch of luck rounding the turn, but he’s advantaged by having the world’s best on his back. MALAGUERRA is first up for a year but he can’t be ignored. Proven G1 animal with a terrific first up strike rate. SPRIGHT’s CV isn’t as glittering as some of his rivals but his first up Moir run puts him in good stead here. Recorded quickest last 400m/200m sectionals (off a hot tempo) to run into third and that was despite a tardy getaway. 1200m more his go. That run ties in BRAVE SMASH who was also huge late. KEMENTARI is a ripper, a good thing beaten behind Pierata when he last saw 1200m. Freshened up for this.
Selections: 8. U S Navy Flag, 3. Malaguerra, 12. Spright, 2. Kementari

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 7:
SUNLIGHT Has yet to miss a place in 10 starts returning to the winner’s stall on seven occasions including the Thoroughbred Club Stakes at Caulfield last start. Failed her only start taking on the older horses when six-lengths from Nature Strip in the Lightning at Morphettville but she has improved since then. Has to be a winning chance down in the weights launching from the inside gate. BRAVE SMASH Didn’t fire a shot in the Everest on the heavy track at Randwick last start. His previous three starts including a second in the Moir Stakes were all good enough for this and has to be given another chance. KEMENTARI Comes back to 1200m after finishing fourth in the Makybe Diva Stakes over a mile at Flemington last start. Has been given a five-week let-up and he will be charging late. VOODOO LAD Won the Aurie’s Star at Flemington three back before finishing close-up last two at Caulfield. Doubt he is a genuine Group I horse but can still get into the placings with the right run.

Saturday

Moonee Valley

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Race 2, No. 5 Desert Lashes – 3.5 stars
Race 6, No. 2 Fundamentalist – 3.5 stars
Race 7, No. 7 Sir John Lavery – 3.5 stars
Race 10, No. 13 Verry Elleegant – 3.5 stars

Quaddie: 7, 8, 9 / 1, 2, 6, 11 / 6 / 1, 13

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 3:
Back Savatiano (2.15) to win.

Race 7:
Back Siege Of Quebec (3.50) to win.

Race 9 – Cox Plate
Tips:
1. Winx
2. Benbatl
3. Kings Will Dream
4. Avilius
Suggested Bet(s):
Back Kings Will Dream (7.50) in the Without Winx market and to place.
If investing 10 units have 3 units in the Without Winx market and 7 units to place.

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 8, #1, Who Shot Thebarman

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 6:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #3 Mystic Journey; #2 Fundamentalist

Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #9 Siege Of Quebec

Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #14 Ventura Storm; #6 The Taj Mahal

Race 9:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #6 Winx

Race 10:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #13 Verry Elleegant

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 3: 1 Princess Posh, 2 Savatiano, 3 Mrs Gardenia, 6 Mamzelle Tess
Race 5: 1 Aylmerton, 3 Spin, 4 Sunset Watch, 5 Charge
Race 6: 1 El Dorado Dreaming, 2 Fundamentalist, 4 Krone, 5 Anjana
Race 7: 1 It’s Somewhat, 2 Prized Icon, 8 Cliff’s Edge, 9 Siege of Quebec
Race 8: 3 Egg Tart, 6 The Taj Mahal, 13 Tosen Brasil, 17 Sully
Race 9: 1 Benbatl, 3 Kings Will Dream, 4 Avilius, 6 Winx
Race 10: 1 Aramayo, 5 Savoie, 7 Real Success, 13 Verry Ellegant

BetEasy – The King’s Tips:

Race 3:
2. Savatiano (3 stars)
1. Princess Posh (3 stars)
3. Mrs Gardenia (3 stars)
9. Our Girl Silke (3 stars)

Race 5:
4. Sunset Watch (3 stars)
7. Wagner (3 stars)
5. Charge (3 stars)
3. Spin (3 stars)

Race 6:
1. El Dorado Dreaming (5 stars)
4. Krone (4 stars)
2. Fundamentalist (2 stars)
3. Mystic Journey (2 stars)

Race 7:
10. Octabello (3 stars)
1. It’s Somewhat (3 stars)
5. Lycurgus (3 stars)
9. Siege Of Quebec (3 stars)

Race 8:
9. Trap For Fools (5 stars)
1. Who Shot Thebarman (3 stars)
3. Egg Tart (3 stars)
2. Patrick Erin (3 stars)

Race 9:
6. Winx (5 stars)
4. Avilius (4 stars)
1. Benbatl (2 stars)
7. Rostropovich (2 stars)

Race 10:
1. Aramayo (3 stars)
13. Verry Elleegant (3 stars)
5. Savoie (3 stars)
3. Mickey Blue Eyes (3 stars)

Unibet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 3:
SAVATIANO (2) Brave effort to win three runs back at Wyong and back in an easier grade. Good form for this class and absolutely good enough for this race. MRS GARDENIA (3) Nearly got a win when 2nd two runs back at this track and will find this grade easier. Must respect in this event. PRINCESS POSH (1) Left nothing to chance when winning three runs back at Newcastle and will appreciate the drop in grade. Has run into the money 7 from 11 attempts this campaign. Could go well at this level. BRING ME ROSES (4) Second up from a break. Ended up 4.2L from the winner at Flemington last start but looks well graded here. Likely to fill a place.
Selections: 2 Savatiano, 3 Mrs Gardenia, 1 Princess Posh, 4 Bring Me Roses

Race 5:
SUNSET WATCH (4) Won narrowly last time at this course and shows good early pace. Should go well. AYLMERTON (1) Third up from a break. Folded up in the straight when 7th last run at Randwick but suited at this distance in the past. Winning chance in this line up. SPIN (3) Ran on strongly when 3rd last run at Randwick and is down in class. Has a great burst of speed late. Will be competitive. WAGNER (7) Fought on gamely when winning two runs back at Canterbury. Very tidy this campaign winning 2 from 3 attempts. Follow market leads
Selections: 4 Sunset Watch, 1 Aylmerton, 3 Spin, 7 Wagner

Race 6:
EL DORADO DREAMING (1) Having third run back from a break. Ran on strongly when 3rd two runs back at Caulfield. Right in this. FUNDAMENTALIST (2) Flashed home late into 2nd last time at Caulfield. Could go well. MYSTIC JOURNEY (3) Won last start at Caulfield but up in grade. Has won 2 from 4 starts this campaign. No shock to see a win. KRONE (4) Good show to place 2nd two runs back at Flemington. Will be trying to topple them late. Warrants a bet.
Selections: 1 El Dorado Dreaming, 2 Fundamentalist, 3 Mystic Journey, 4 Krong

Race 7:
SIEGE OF QUEBEC (9) Game effort to win three runs back at Randwick. Must be considered. CLIFF’S EDGE (8) Was fighting out the finish when winning two runs back at Caulfield. Should take beating. SIR JOHN LAVERY (7) Second up. Nice run finishing 2nd three runs back at Newmarket but facing a stronger class. Can go well here. IT’S SOMEWHAT (1) Kept finding the line when 2nd two runs back at Randwick and will be dropping in distance today. Among the major players.
Selections: 9 Siege Of Quebec, 8 Cliff’s Edge, 7 Sir John Lavery, 1 It’s Somewhat

Race 8:
THE TAJ MAHAL (6) Really dug deep when winning two runs back at this course. Worth a bet. TRAP FOR FOOLS (9) Finished on top three runs back at this venue. Has early speed and positions nicely. Win wouldn’t shock. TOSEN BASIL (13) Rocketed home into 2nd two runs back at Caulfield and is down in grade. Can be competitive. EGG TART (3) Good run placing 3rd last time at Randwick. Has run into the money 3 from 4 attempts this preparation. One for the trifectas and first fours in this race.
Selections: 6 The Taj Mahal, 9 Trap For Fools, 13 Tosen Basil, 3 Egg Tart

Race 9:
WINX (6) Should be ready to peak after her ultra impressive win at Flemington last start. Appears set to do what no other horse has ever done and win this race four times in a row, sit back and enjoy the ride! BENBATL (1) Showed plenty of heart in his win in the Caulfield Stakes last start and will race handy to the speed again. If anyone is ever going to beat Winx, he could be the one. AVILIUS (4) Flawless this preparation with four wins from as many starts. Inside gate makes it a bit trickier but should be played through place and exotics betting. HUMIDOR (2) Ready to peak in this race and will be looking to go one better than last year. Needs a strong tempo up front but is likely to be running on well.
Selections: 6 Winx, 1 Benbatl, 4 Avilius, 2 Humidor

Race 10:
VERRY ELLEEGANT (13) On a short back up. Fought on gamely when winning last time at Caulfield but racing in stronger company here. Appears well in this. ARAMAYO (1) Winner two runs back at Newcastle and will be hitting the line strongly. No surprise to see a forward showing and one of the main hopes in this race. DEAL MAKER (4) Dashed home into 2nd two runs back at Rosehill and will find this grade easier. Always seems to find the line well. Can be competitive. SAVOIE (5) Won by a big margin two runs back at Flemington and has plenty of early speed. Has run into the money 5 from 6 attempts this preparation. Might be one for the placings.
Selections: 13 Verry Ellegant, 1 Aramayo, 4 Deal Maker, 5 Savoie

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 3:
SPEED: 7 & 10 can lead 2, 3 and 6, 9. SAVATIANO was the hard-luck story in the Blazer Stakes when badly blocked at a key stage, when clear she flew at the line. This is her first go 1600m but that looks okay. BRING ME ROSES also had no luck in the Blazer, she is proven (and better suited) at 1600m and this weight scale is more suitable to her. The form from that race has been franked (Invincibella/Temple of Bel/Aloisia). That clearly ties the genuine MAMZELLE TESS in. SHOKO faded in that race but MV suits her better. OUR GIRL SILKE and SILENT ROAR are on the up!
Selections: 4. Bring Me Roses, 2. Savatiano, 1. Princess Posh, 9. Our Girl Silke

Race 5:
SPEED: 1, 4, 11 go forward. 3, 5, 7, 8 handy. Many hopes. Queries 2 & 10 back at 1200m. SPIN covered a stack of ground at Randwick on better day to be near the inside. He was close-up prior in the Danehill when drew poorly (inside). CHARGE didn’t finish off on heavy ground behind Spin in Sydney but was on heels of Meryl (stakes winner here) and Sandbar (beat Spin home in Sydney prior) on dry ground before that. WAGNER did not look comfortable around Caulfield. The win prior was very good. AYLMERTON can improve sharply here drier. BLEU ROCHE produced a big last 600m figure at start two.
Selections: 3. Spin, 7. Wagner, 13. Bleu Roche, 5. Charge

Race 6:
Not sure leader. Maybe 6,8 but any/ all of 2,3,5,11 can be up there. FUNDAMENTALIST was only nailed late in Thousand Gneas and beat home ANJANA (ran well), KRONE (found line nicely), MUSIC BAY (fair) and EL DORADO DREAMING (issues post-race: forgive). Now, Krone beat home Thousand Wishes, Pierro Belle (was 1200-to-1600m) and BLONDE DISPOSITION in Manifold, that race has thrown Amphitrite and Verry Elleegant too remember. MYSTIC JOURNEY brings different formline and she did win well at Caulfield. Giving El Dorado Dreaming another go, we saw Iconoclasm win well off similar affliction recently.
Selections: 1. El Dorado Dreaming, 2. Fundamentalist, 5. Anjana, 4. Krone

Race 7:
SPEED: 8 leads 2,7 with 1,6,9,10 handy. SIEGE OF QUEBEC made ground wide before turn in fast Toorak Hcp and kept closing. He was close-up in track record Epsom prior, he does come up to WFA here but the only poor run this prep was on heavy ground. CLIFF’S EDGE chased strong speed in Toorak and was the best on-pacer. He beat Levendi (ATC Derby winner) his last run here. IT’S SOMEWHAT & PRIZED ICON are well-suited WFA but have not won for a long while, It’s Somewhat was sound 4L 3rd this race last year. SIR JOHN LAVERY luckless fresh/mile suits. SOVEREIGN NATION meets him 4.5kg better this scale
Selections: 9. Siege Of Quebec, 8. Cliff’s Edge, 2. Prized Icon, 1. It’s Somewhat

Race 8:
SPEED: 9 can lead 17, 18 (both emergencies) with 6 and 2 up there. THE TAJ MAHAL beat home Gallic Chieftain here then stuck on well in a Caulfield Cup. LORD FANDANGO was only 2nd-up when closing off well in Herbert Power, he was right with Gallic Chieftain. MISS ADMIRATION also ran home nicely there. TRAP FOR FOOLS faded late his one go 2400m. LIBRAN ran on well against tempo in Metrop and has 7kg on PATRICK ERIN today. Brimham Rocks (second) then beat all bar Yucatan in that Herbert Power. TOSEN BASIL improves here. NAKEETA ran well in 2017 Melbourne Cup. VENTURA STORM can win.
Selections: 6. The Taj Mahal, 7. Lord Fandango, 14. Ventura Storm, 10. Libran

Race 9:
SPEED: 7 may lead 1 & 3. WINX was nearly brought undone by a slow speed in the Turnbull but she found a way to win, that ”way” was to run 3 x consecutive sub-11 second 200m sectionals, so herein lies the problem for her rivals, they cannot go too hard as it simply advantages the superior athlete, and if they go slow, she sprints too well. Her immortality is assured but a fourth Cox Plate surely has her seated at the top of the throne, as our greatest equine athlete, in history!?
Selections: 6. Winx, 7. Rostropovich, 5. D’argento, 1. Benbatl

Race 10:
SPEED: 5,6 & 9 go fwd. 7,14 up there also. VERRY ELLEEGANT was the only winner to come from midfield last week and she did it despite pulling hard early, she is very much still a work in progress but highly gifted. A filly Maid Of Heaven beat ARAMAYO in a G1 in Sydney last start, back in third was last week’s impressive winner Thinking’ Big. MICKEY BLUE EYES and DEALMAKER both should have finished closer there. SAVVY OAK made up a stack of ground in UCI. SAVOIE was good setting strong speed that same race.
Selections: 13. Verry Elleegant, 1. Aramayo, 3. Mickey Blue Eyes, 5. Savoie

Betfair – Race Analysis & Selections:

Race 3:
1. Savatiano (5 stars)
2. Silent Roar (5 stars)
3. Mrs Gardenia (4 stars)

Race 5:
1. Spin (5 stars)
2. Sunset Watch (5 stars)
3. Charge (5 stars)

Race 7:
1. Siege Of Quebec (5 stars)
2. Octabello (5 stars)
3. Cliff’s Edge (4 stars)

Race 8:
1. Egg Tart (5 stars)
2. The Taj Mahal (5 stars)
3. Trap For Fools (5 stars)

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 3:
SAVATIANO Won the Mona Lisa Stakes at Wyong resuming three runs back before being placed last two at Newcastle and Flemington and she had no luck in the Blazer Stakes at Flemington last start when runner-up. Only has to run out the mile for the first time to be the one to beat. MAMZELLE TESS Is finding it hard to get back into the winner’s stall but is ultra-consistent finishing in the placings in six of her last seven starts including a third in the Blazer Stakes at Flemington last start. She’s a must for the exotics getting the gun run from an ideal gate. PRINCESS POSH Won the Tibbie at Newcastle three back and has been close-up in Group races at Rosehill and Randwick at last two. Running out a strong mile looks the only query. MRS GARDENIA Was well beaten at Caulfield last start but stays under notice on her Caulfield win earlier in the preparation and her runner-up finish in the Stock Stakes this track and distance two back.

Race 5:
SPIN Only has a Kembla maiden win on his 10 start resume but has been competitive in last three starts including a third in the Roman Consul Stakes at Randwick last start. Have to respect the Snowden’s ability to find the right races for their horses and he is a winning chance. SUNSET WATCH Has won three of last four for team Hawkes including an all the way win this track and distance last start. Won’t spend a penny in running launching from an ideal gate and looks a great chance to go back to back. CHARGE Didn’t fire a shot in the Roman Consul at Randwick last start in the heavy ground but is worth another chance after finishing in the placings in the Rosebud and Heritage Stakes at previous two starts. AYLMERTON Over-raced badly when down the track in the Roman Consul last start. Won his first two career starts including the Todman at Randwick and is capable of improving sharply with the blinkers coming off.

Race 6:
KRONE Was placed in the Edward Manifold two runs back before working home nicely when less than three-lengths from the winner in the Thousand Guineas last start. Gets a nice run from the gate and top rates in an open race. ANJANA Has been racing well without winning this preparation and was only a length and a half from the winner in the Thousand Guineas last start. There is nothing to suggest she won’t be in the finish again. EL DORADO DREAMING Won the Sires Produce before finishing third in the Champagne Stakes at Randwick in the Autumn. Has now had two runs back from a spell and is ready to do something peaking third-up. FUNDAMENTALIST Just missed at big odds in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield last start after getting a soft run in transit. Has to overcome an awkward gate but if the breaks come would be right in play.

Race 7:
SIEGE OF QUEBEC Won the Bill Ritchie at Randwick three back before finishing on the placegetters heels in the Epsom. Worked in the run so the effort had merit finishing third in the Toorak last start. The 6.5kg weight rise under WFA conditions looks the only concern. IT’S SOMEWHAT Struggled on the heavy track when unplaced in the Craven Plate at Randwick last start however his runner-up finish in the Hill Stakes two back is a solid pointer for this and does look suited back to the mile. CLIFF’S EDGE Was outclassed in the Toorak Handicap last start after finding his race to win at Caulfield two back. He’s an honest gelding who will run his usual honest race. PRIZED ICON Hasn’t won for quite a while but continues to race well and is worth including in the wider exotics after finishing on the placegetters heels in the Inglis Cup at Caulfield last start.

Race 8:
EGG TART Won the O’Shea Stakes over the Winter Carnival in Brisbane and has been close up all four runs this preparation including a placing in the Craven Plate at Randwick last start. This looks her chance to return to the winner’s list. SULLY Has improved at each of his three runs this time in culminating in a close second in the Cranbourne Cup last start. He’s ready to win peaking fourth-up. TOSEN BASIL Was outclassed in the Caulfield Stakes at WFA last start after finishing a close second in the Underwood two runs back. He’s right in playing dropping 4kg under the set-weight and penalty conditions. THE TAJ MAHAL Backs up after a solid effort in the Caulfield Cup last week when he battled on okay after taking off at the 800m. Won the JRA Cup here two runs back and is expected to be a major player again.

Race 9:
WINX Looks set to make Australian Racing History winning an unprecedented fourth Cox Plate and her 29th win in a row. Is going as well as ever and the small field works in her favour. Only bad luck can beat her. BENBATL Showed his class fighting back tenaciously to win the Caulfield Stakes at his first Australian start. He was a Group I winner in Dubai earlier in the year and a Group I winner at Munich two runs back. Will be right on the speed and the one that can spoil the party. KINGS WILL DREAM The slow early pace was against him in the Caulfield Cup last week but he worked home nicely. Was placed in the Turnbull this distance range two back and has place prospects. AVILIUS Is unbeaten in four Australian starts culminating in the Bart Cummings at Flemington last start. Back to 2000m is a genuine query with the Melbourne Cup his goal but we still haven’t found his level yet in Australia and could surprise.

Race 10:
ARAMAYO Won the Spring Stakes at Newcastle before being run down on the line in the Spring Champion Stakes this distance range last start. Just needs a touch of luck from the awkward gate to be the one to beat. VERRY ELLEEGANT Won two from four in New Zealand before crossing the Tasman to enter the Darren Weir yard and her two Australian starts have been bottlers hitting the line strongly when unlucky in the Edward Manifold two back before making amends in the Ethereal at Caulfield last start. Over-raced early last start which looks the only concern. SAVOIE Won successive races at Swan Hill and Flemington before battling on well after leading when placed in the UCI Stakes at Flemington last start. Running out a strong 2040m for the first time looks the query. REAL SUCCESS Has finished runner-up last two at Mornington and Caulfield and does look suited stepping up in distance.

Randwick

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Race 2, No. 2 Stella Victoria – 4 stars
Race 6, No. 3 Brook Magic – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 7, No. 3 Most Exalted – each-way – 3.5 stars

Quaddie: 1, 3, 6 / 3, 7, 8, 11 / 3, 5, 6, 7 / 2, 10, 12

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 8:
Back Savacool (4.40) and Miss Shanti (11.00).
If investing 10 units level stake them at 5 units each. (Miss Shanti is a dual acceptor so if she doesn’t run then just back Savacool)

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 2, #2, Stella Victoria – best bet
Race 4, #5, Just Dreaming – lay bet
Race 5, #9, Valentino Rossa – value bet

 

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