Melbourne Cup Runner By Runner Preview and Betting Tips

The following is a survey of betting tips for the 2018 Melbourne Cup. This article also looks at where the money is going and provides a survey of analyst comments for each runner.

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Money Tracker

Below is a screenshot of the money tracker at Neds at the time of writing. Orange denotes the share of the number of bets on each runner and green denotes the share of the total dollar amount wagered.

Melbourne Cup money tracker

Yucatan is by far and away the most popular horse. The higher percentage of money wagered compared to bets placed indicates that those backing Yucutan are playing higher stakes wagers than backers of other horses. The next most popular is Magic Circle. Ventura Storm is a popular roughie in terms of numbers of bets placed, although its backers are placing smaller stakes wagers. One shorter-priced horse that is currently unwanted by punters is The Cliffsofmoher (16.00), with bettors preferring the similarly priced Youngstar.

Betting tips

The following is a survey of betting tips for the Melbourne Cup.

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Top 5:
1. Magic Circle (3) – 3.5 star pick
2. Yucatan (11)
3. Marmelo (9)
4. Avilius (10)
5. Best Solution (1)

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Tip:
1. THE CLIFFSOFMOHER
2. Best Solution
3. A Prince Of Arran
4. Cross Counter

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

BACK – Muntahaa for 2 Units
BACK– Youngstar for 1 Unit

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 7: 1 Best Solution, 11 Yucutan, 16 Ventura Storm, 22 Youngstar

BetEasy – The King’s Tips:

1. Best Solution (5 stars)
10. Avilius (3 stars)
7. Who Shot Thebarman (3 stars)
8. Ace High (3 stars)

Unibet – Race Comments and Selections:

MAGIC CIRCLE (3) Has won his last two starts by big margins and is proven at the trip. Has to deal with a slightly awkward draw but with clear running he can take this out. YUCATAN (11) Was simply far too good for them in the Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield. The barrier doesn’t make it easy but even that might not be enough to stop him today. MUNTAHAA (5) Blew away the opposition in the Ebor Handicap at York. Looks to be good value in this race. YOUNGSTAR (22) Finished off strongly from well back in the Caulfield Cup. Looks like she will see out the trip, chance at odds.
Selections: 3 Magic Circle, 11 Yucutan, 5 Muntahaa, 22 Youngstar

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

YUCATAN’s Oz debut was one of the best Melb Cup trials I have seen, he went immeasurably better than ’14 winner Protectionist, he beat A PRINCE OF ARRAN who won Lexus Sat. MAGIC CIRLCE arrives off two outstanding wins, he beat RED VERDON 6L (then good in Caul Cup) and A Prince Of Arran 9L in May. He thrashed Weekender who then sat wide and battled hard behind MUNTAHAA in Ebor. CROSS COUNTER has had set-back but beat Kew Gardens last start, he then won G1 St Leger. YOUNGSTAR flies flag for locals, her Caul Cup run was good. ROSTROPOVICH, MARMELO, BEST SOLUTION & THE CLIFFSOFMOHER chances.
Selections:
3. Magic Circle (17)
11. Yucatan (23)
23. Cross Counter (19)
5. Muntahaa (13)

Betfair – Race Analysis & Selections:

Pace genuine with Marmelo and Runaway pushing forward from closer in while from their wide draws Ace High and Rostropovich will try to cross and ensure genuine pressure. Hard not to be impressed with YUCATAN. Was eased down to win the Herbert Power when could have won by a space and the pair behind him dominated the Lexus here on Saturday. Drops in weight, further improved, and looks the one to beat again. BEST SOLUTION was a strong Caulfield Cup winner which brought up his third Group 1 success on end. Hard to knock the four run winning streak and can only improve off the Caulfield win. Drawn to be prominent throughout. CROSS COUNTER is an emerging UK stayer who rates highly here. Cup winning rider aboard and has a light weight. Expected to measure up. THE CLIFFSOFMOHER was an eye catching run in the Caulfield Cup and looks ready to win. Have to include in the main hopes. MAGIC CIRCLE, MUNTAHAA, AVILIUS and A PRINCE OF ARRAN are all among the each way chance for multiples.
Selections:
1. Yucatan (5 stars)
2. Best Solution (4 stars)
3. Cross Counter (4 stars)

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

YOUNGSTAR The lack of early speed was against her in the Caulfield Cup after stretching Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. Is worth another chance and looks the best of the locals. BEST SOLUTION Won the Caulfield Cup after taking off at the 600m and importantly escaped a penalty. Is a key player once again although hasn’t won beyond 2450m. YUCATAN Burst into calculations with an arrogant win in the Herbert Power when eased down near the line. Still well weighted despite the 2.5kg penalty and will take a power of beating. VENTURA STORM Returned to the winner’s list in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. Doubt that is the form line for this and a rough place chance at best.

Herald Sun – Who Will Win the Melbourne Cup?:

LEO SCHLINK (Herald Sun)
1 Yucatan
2 Magic Circle
3 Muntahaa
4 The Cliffsofmoher
Roughie: Rostropovich

GLENN MCFARLANE (Herald Sun)
1. Yucatan
2 Avilius
3 Youngstar
4 Cross Counter
Roughie: Rostropovich

MICHAEL MANLEY (Herald Sun)
1 Yucatan
2 The Cliffsofmoher
3 Avilus
4 Rostropovich
Best roughie: Finche

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

1. Muntahaa
2. Yucatan
3. Magic Circle (if there’s rain, he gets elevated)
4. Youngstar
Roughies: Rostropovich, Who Shot Thebarman (place chance) – and include The Cliffsofmoher in your first fours.

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Tips:
1. Best Solution
2. Yucatan
3. Cross Counter
4. A Prince Of Arran

Suggested Bet(s)
Back Yucatan (5.50) and Best Solution (13.00) to win.
Level stake them with Best Solution providing the big result.
For wider exotics include 2, 10, 13, 15, 16, 17.

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Back #11 – Yucatan

Fox Sports – Form Guide:

1. CROSS COUNTER
2. MUNTAHAA
3. AVILIUS
4. FINCHE

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Top 3:
2. The Cliffsofmoher ($16)
11. Yucatan ($5)
1. Best Solution ($13)

Roughie: 22. Youngstar ($16)

Runner by runner guide

The odds are sourced from BetEasy and the form data is sourced from Sportsbet.

1. Best Solution

Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave (57.5kg)
5×1111
Barrier: 6
Odds: $13/$4
Last 6: 5×1111
Career: 22: 9-2-3
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Dominant winner of the Caulfield Cup last start who is looking to be the first horse to complete the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double since Ethereal in 2001. Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, the last start Caulfield Cup winner appears to have trained on well by all reports, and is in tip top condition for the Melbourne Cup. Prior to his Caulfield Cup victory, the son of Kodiac had won back to back Group 1’s in Germany, both over 2400m. He has a chance because he will put himself on the speed, and get every chance from there, but against him is the unknown around whether he is more effective over 2400m as opposed to the 3200m on offer here.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Carried top weight in G1 Caulfield Cup at his Australian debut and sustained a long run (700m) then refused to lose. Top effort! Was off back-to-back Group 1 wins in Germany coming over here and had 60kg in both. First go beyond 2435m the unknown.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Won the Caulfield Cup after taking off at the 600m and importantly escaped a penalty. Is a key player once again although hasn’t won beyond 2450m.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

On a four run winning streak. Last start won by a nose (jumped awkwardly; rider charged with careless riding) Caulfield G1 Caulfield Cup Oct 20 over 2400m slow track defeating Homesman with 57.5kg. Before that won by a neck Baden Baden G1 Preis Von Baden in Sep over 2414m defeating Defoe with 60kg. Has won three Group 1’s on end including an impressive win in the Caulfield Cup. Nice draw and will be prominent throughout. Go close again.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

They just don’t come into the Melbourne Cup with form like this. He’s the winner of 5 from his past 7 starts….that in itself is outstanding, but 4 of these have been at Group 1 level, including the best lead up race for this race, the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. And he won that race running wide and having his first look at the tricky Caulfield race track. Is clearly a brilliant race horse and clearly a stayer of immense talent. Draws perfectly here and should sit in top 5, not covering ground this time. Looks very, very hard to beat.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Caulfield Cup winner who fought off Homesman doggedly to win the famous Group 1 at his pet distance. Must carry 57.5 which is a difficult task and there must be a slight query over him running out 3200m.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Showed he’s top class with the Caulfield Cup win, but it wasn’t a commanding victory. Carries topweight and has to get 3200m without proving he’s done it before. I’d be amazed if he ran poorly, but winning this stayers’ race will be a big test.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Strong win in Caulfield Cup where suited by tempo but did plenty of work and still strong on the line. German form very strong and while hasn’t won past 2450m, he gives the impression that the trip will suit. Certainly one of the main winning hopes.

2. The Cliffsofmoher

Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore (56.5kg)
Barrier: 9
Odds: $16/$4.60
Last 6: 433×43
Career: 17: 3-2-3
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

The Cliffsofmoher placed in the Caulfield Cup last start and off that performance he gave every indication that a step up in distance to 3200m would be suitable. He settled near the rear of the field that day, but managed to battle home quite well behind Best Solution to finish third. He’s had two runs in Australia which should suit and with Ryan Moore booked to ride he is clearly the number one seed from the Aiden O’Brien Yard outside of Yucatan, who scored an eye-catching win in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Very good Australian debut running home three fast, consecutive 200m splits then laid in under pressure but kept closing in G1 Caulfield Cup with slow early tempo against him. Placed in G2 Hardwicke Stakes behind a star in Crystal Ocean and Red Verdon. First go beyond 2414m the unknown.

Neds – Runner Comments:

His two Australian starts have been good coming from well back when fourth in the Caulfield Stakes before working home nicely in the Caulfield Cup. The trip is a query but the his two Australian runs suggest he has been set for the race and is right in the mix.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

First-up ran on strong from last on the turn; 4th of 11 runners (slowly away; ran wide on straightening; hung in in straight) at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Stks Oct 13 over 2000m, 2-3/4 len behind Benbatl carrying 59kg. Last start hung in in straight; came from midfield; 3rd of 18 starters at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup Oct 20 over 2400m, on slow going 1-3/4 len behind Best Solution carrying 56.5kg. Has never won at Group 1 level but eye-catching run in Caulfield Cup. Hard to beat.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

This bloke is a real contender. He looks the one to beat. Has had two runs from a spell and both have been outstanding lead ups to this race. His latest when weaving between runners to nab 3rd in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup suggested he is now fit enough to handle this hard task. Loves to wind up and charge home and has shown he has extraordinary finishing power. Will love this track and has drawn to be about 8th with cover until they swing. Only draw back, is yet to win beyond 2000m. Ryan Moore is one of the world’s best riders and he’ll charge him home.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Appeared to ‘blow out’ when loomed up to win the Caulfield Cup in his lead up. Looking back through his tapes there’s an argument to say he’s somewhat of a pack chaser. Flemington will suit him better than Caulfield and Ryan Moore takes over from Hugh Bowman. If he was my horse he’d be running over 2000m.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

His win would be a surprise, not for his quality but for his untested ability as a two mile stayer. If you have a ticket, pray for a slow race that gives him a chance of running well.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

The punters were all over him when heavily backed in the Caulfield Cup. Ran home strongly for third in a race that was hard to make ground. Has had two runs here now which will benefit him enormously and should have continued to improve. I think he is a top hope who is value at double figures

3. Magic Circle

Trainer: Ian Williams
Jockey: Corey Brown (56kg)
Barrier: 17
Odds: $9/$3
Last 6: 50x11x
Career: 21: 8-1-1
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 1: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Since joining the Ian Williams Yard, Magic Circle has done nothing but impress, and stamp his claims on being a genuine Melbourne Cup contender. His last two runs have been nothing short of extraordinary, first he displayed an electrifying turn of foot in the Chester Cup over 3749m, to win by six lengths and then following that win he took out the Henry II Stakes at Sandown winning by over six lengths. In both his performances he has responded to the rider with ease when answered, and appears to possess a strong staying ability, as well as a sharp turn of foot required to win a Melbourne Cup. The fact he has won beyond 3200m suggests to The Wolf that the distance will not be an issue, and the booking of Corey Brown is a strong one, as he has won two Melbourne Cups previously. Leading chance.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

First Australian start. Thrashed his rivals in Chester Cup then went to G3 Henry II Stks and thrashed Red Verdon (just ran well without luck in G1 Caulfield Cup) and Weekender, who then placed three times behind Marmelo then Muntahaa, then Latrobe.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Showed an impressive turn of foot to win the Chester Cup two runs back before winning the Henry II Stakes at Sandown Park by six-lengths. Looks every inch a Melbourne Cup horse and a definite winning chance.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Resuming after a six months break. Finished off last campaign winning by 6 len Sandown Park G3 Henry II Stakes in May over 3264m defeating Red Verdon with 58kg. Previous preparation first-up won by 6 len Chester Chester Cup-C2 in May over 3749m defeating Fun Mac carrying 58.5kg. UK galloper who excels fresh and will have no problems at the journey. Likely to play a major role resuming.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Is on his day a powerhouse stayer and when he decides to take off he generally races away and wins easily. Has won 3 of his past 5 starts in Britain and those 3 wins have all been over this trip. Tough outside draw means he may be trapped wide for most of the way but he doesn’t get tired normally and should be battling away all the way down the running. Last start Group 3 win in the Henry 11 Stakes at Sandown in England was great – winning by 6 lengths.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Bolted in at his two lead up starts in lower grade firstly in the Chester Cup over 3750m then over 3265m in the G3 Henry II Stakes. Looks weighted up to his best with Corey Brown likely him just in behind the speed. With a soft run in transit he’s likely to be in the finish.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Capable stayer. Will need to lug weight and hasn’t had a race in six months. At the odds, there are bets you’d rather take but every drop of rain helps his cause. He’ll be there at the end if he gets his chance and you can’t say that with confidence against some of his rivals.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

He has been well backed with Bluebet for weeks to win and it is easy to see why when you look at his European form. He has won 5 time beyond 3200m which means the trip won’t bother him but will want it to be a true staying test. A wet track would see him shorten up even further.

4. Chestnut Coat

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Yuga Kawada (55.5kg)
Barrier: 4
Odds: $31/$8.50
Last 6: 1250×0
Career: 18: 4-5-1
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 1: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Japanese import who was defeated by 10 lengths in the Caulfield Cup. He’ll need to have improved sharply off that performance if he wants to be competitive here. In his favour is that he is Group 2 placed in Japan, and has also won over 2400m on multiple occasions, albeit against a weaker grade of horse. Prefer others.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Struggled at his Australian debut in G1 Caulfield Cup however that was his second fail on soft ground. All four wins have been on good/firm ground. Ran brave fifth in G1 Tenno Sho (3200m) after covering ground and placed in G2 Nikkei Sho prior.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Wasn’t sighted in the Caulfield Cup at his first Australian start but have to respect the Japanese form and a sharp improvement wouldn’t surprise.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Having second run back today. Fresh up after five months checked early stages; 13th of 18 runners at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup Oct 20 over 2400m, slow track; 10-3/4 len behind Best Solution with 55.5kg. Previously second-up won by 2-1/2 len Kyoto in Jan over 2200m defeating A T Thunder with 56.0kg. Japanese galloper who was well held in the Caulfield Cup but will strip much fitter. Place looks best.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Japanese horse and normally the Japanese horses race very well when down here. This bloke did get beaten just on a length in very fast time in the 3200m Group 1 Tenno Sho in April but hasn’t fired a shot since. May be best to look past him.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

If you can forgive his Caulfield Cup performance you can make a case to back the Japanese raider at 50/1. Ran 5th beaten only two lengths in the G1 Tenno Sho back in April with 58kg. Probably wants a good rated track though.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Always respect Japanese form but Chestnut Coat isn’t the kind of class that commands significant attention. His best form could see him run a place but he needs to take a big step up from what we saw in the Caulfield Cup.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Japanese stayer who was disappointing in the Caulfield Cup when beaten over 10 lengths. Didn’t have a lot of luck that day but will need to have improved significantly to be a winning chance. This is what he has been set for and 3200m suits but will need to improve.

5. Muntahaa

Trainer: John Gosden
Jockey: Jim Crowley (55.5kg)
Barrier: 13
Odds: $11/$3.40
Last 6: 6×4341
Career: 15: 4-1-4
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Ebor Handicap winner who has proven himself as a stayer that can perform well over 2800m and beyond. He won the Ebor Handicap by over three lengths, with 61kg on his back, and in that race he showed no signs of stopping, indicating to The Wolf that step up in distance to 3200m would not be a problem. He’s a flashy grey horse who very good form to Australia, around horses like Best Solution, Hawkbill, Duretto and Idaho; all of whom would be expected to be very competitive in this. Top five chance.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

First Australian start. Couldn’t sprint when the race went on in G2 Princess of Wales behind Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution then brilliant win in Ebor Handicap (2816m) when travelled beautifully deep into the race (fastest time since 1998) and beat Weekender, who had placed behind Magic Circle and then was right on the heels of Latrobe.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Won the Ebor Handicap at York last start in impressive fashion and that race has been a solid form reference for the Cup in the past. Has to be amongst the best of the Internationals.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Resuming after three months. Finished off last campaign winning by 3-1/4 len York Ebor Hcp (C2) in Aug over 2787m defeating Weekender with 61kg. First up last campaign 4th in a small field at Chester in the G3 Ormonde Stakes in May over 2691m, 5 len behind Our Idaho carrying 57kg. Resumes. Set for this race after an easy win of the Ebor, a solid UK form reference into this. Go well here.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Solid grinding, dour English stayer who was just 4 lengths behind Best Solution when carrying the same weight at the testing Newmarket course in July. Only run since was a brilliant runaway winner of a great lead up race to this in the 2816m Ebor at York. Humped 61kg and just strode away final stages winning by nearly 4 lengths. The Brits say he is a quality stayer and will take beating.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Ebor winner with 61kgs and comes here fresh off a 71-day break. Similar profile to a horse like Heartbreak City who was narrowly beaten by Almandin in an epic Cup in 2016. Rider Jim Crowley is now familiar with race riding in Australia and has come up with barrier 13 which is ideal. Will sit in the sweet spot and I’ve marked him on top.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

If Muntahaa brings his Ebor form he’ll be extremely hard to beat here.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

European stayer having first start in Australia which is of some concern but he was supper impressive winning the Ebor Handicap which has been a good form race from Europe for the Cup. Lack of a run here makes him hard to line up and while a definite winning chance doesn’t look great value at current quote.

6. Sound Check

Trainer: Michael Moroney
Jockey: Jordan Childs (55.5kg)
Barrier: 16
Odds: $31/$8.50
Last 6: x11320
Career: 17: 7-2-1
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 1: 1-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Sound Check is German Import who finished twelfth in his Australian debut in the Caulfield Cup. Prior to his twelfth, he had placed behind Best Solution in the Grosser Preis Von Berlin, suggesting to The Wolf the form around him is strong and had he not settled so far back in the Caulfield Cup that he may have been more competitive. In his favour is that he has won over 2800m and 3200m before, proving to The Wolf that the distance is no issue. He’ll be looking to do what Protectionist did in 2014, and become the second German import to win the Melbourne Cup. Top 10 chance.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Had no hope from way back in slowly run G1 Caulfield Cup at his Australian debut. Good behind Best Solution at home prior. Won well his one go at 3200m, in a Group 2, beating Nearly Caught, who has won four of eight starts.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Struggled in the Caulfield Cup at first Australian start and would need to improve considerably to be any sort of chance.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Racing second-up today. First-up after two months overraced early stages; 12th of 18 runners at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup Oct 20 over 2400m, on slow going 10-1/2 len behind Best Solution carrying 55.5kg. Previously second-up won by 1/2 len Hoppegarten G2 Oleander-Rennen in May over 3219m defeating Nearly Caught carrying 58kg. Former German Group 2 winner who was well held in the Caulfield Cup. Fitter but needs to improve sharply.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

This bloke might be the surprise package – providing he can get in. In the Group 1 Caulfield Cup he couldn’t find the rail and was left spluttering final stages beaten 11 lengths by Best Solution. At his run prior to that he went down by a head to the same horse when both carried 60kg in a German Group 1 over 2400m. He is a German 3200m winner so can stay but again drawn deep.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Forgive run in the Caulfield Cup when tempo against and didn’t have much luck. Excels on wet ground and measured up nicely at Group level in Germany. Is a winner over 2800 and 3200m and looks good value at 33/1 but will spot them all a big start.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

A nice chance for a German horse to win but keeps running behind his nemesis Best Solution, both abroad and in Australia. That makes him unlikely.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Had no luck in the Caulfield Cup when caught back and wide when that wasn’t the place to be. The step up to 3200m will suit and his European form around Best Solution is good. Would need all the favours to win but certainly a good roughie for exotics.

7. Who Shot Thebarman

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Ben Melham (55.5kg)
Barrier: 18
Odds: $34/$9
Last 6: 1×7694
Career: 55: 11-7-4
Track: 6: 2-0-1
Distance: 9: 2-2-1
Trk/Dist: 3: 0-0-1

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Who Shot Thebarman is a grand old stayer who has placed third, fifth and eleventh in the Melbourne Cup previously. Earlier this year he won the Group 1 Sydney Cup over 3200m, and stamped his claims on a potential Melbourne Cup tilt. He’ll stay all day, and his run in the Moonee Valley Cup prior to this was excellent, against him however is that the Sydney Cup this year wasn’t an overly strong edition, and if he is to win this he will have needed to have improved sharply. He’ll run very well without winning.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Won G1 Sydney Cup (3200m). Ran fifth to Almandin in this race in 2016. Placed in the race (third) in 2014 to Protectionist in fast time. Closed off well in MV Cup with 58kg. 10YO but still capable.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Has had four goes in the Cup and has been competitive on each occasion including a third in the 2014 edition. His fourth in the Moonee Valley Cup last start suggests he will be in the finish again.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last run eased near 600m; settled back and ran on when 4th of 15 starters at Moonee Valley in the G2 M. Valley Cup Oct 27 over 2500m, 2-1/2 len behind Ventura Storm carrying 58kg. The run before that slowly away; 9th of 14 runners at Randwick in the G3 Craven Plate Oct 13 over 2000m, on rain affected going; 10-1/2 len behind Moss ‘N’ Dale with 59kg. Veteran stayer who ran well at the Valley latest but harder here and drawn wide. This looks too tough.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Grand old stager who won the Group 1 Sydney Cup over this trip earlier this year. Has had 4 runs to get him cherry ripe for this this time up and did make up good ground late when 4th in the 2500m Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup behind VENTURA STORM who is in here. Is getting better all the time. But drawn poorly so may travel deep which will be a worry over the final 200m.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Racing in great heart for a 10yo but I can’t have. Honest though.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

The old boys of old boys. He’s some chance of running top six.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Grand old stayer having his fourth crack at the Cup after winning the Sydney Cup this year as 9yo. Chris Waller has him ticking over as well as ever but does look outclassed here as a 10yo. He is one you know who run a good solid race and will probably work home into a top half finish again.

8. Ace High

Trainer: David Payne
Jockey: Tye Angland (55.5kg)
Barrier: 22
Odds: $61/$15
Last 6: x02410
Career: 22: 5-3-0
Track: 2: 1-0-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Ace High won last year’s Victoria Derby, and since then has won the Group 2 Hill Stakes at Randwick, his latest run however was rather poor, as he finished 15th behind Best Solution in the Caulfield Cup. In his favour however is that he is a much better horse at Flemington, however he’s drawn barrier 22 of 24, and he is expected to do a lot of work early. Not here.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Folded up in G1 Caulfield Cup but has been unplaced all six runs on wet ground and did pull up with a poor recovery rate. Won Victoria Derby here last year, beating subsequent Australian Derby winner, and acts like he will stay. Never raced beyond 2500m though. Can improve here on drier ground.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Won the Victoria Derby this time last year in a strong staying performance. Didn’t fire in the Caulfield Cup last start but his previous form was good enough to see him rate as one of the best local hopes.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last outing pulled up with poor post-race recovery 15th of 18 runners at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup Oct 20 over 2400m, on slow going 11-3/4 len behind Best Solution with 55kg. The run before that won by 2 len Randwick G2 Hill Stks Sep 29 over 2000m defeating It’s Somewhat with 58kg. Led and faded in the Caulfield Cup. Poor draw and hard to have on lead up run.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

He is a 2 x Group 1 winner and he won handsomely over 2000m at Group 2 level in the Hill Stakes 2 runs ago, but his effort when a distinct weakening 15th over 2400m in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup last start was a major concern. He will go forward from this horror draw and that might be a bad move too because he will be using energy and travelling wide. No thanks.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Caved in too badly for mine in the Caulfield Cup off a soft tempo upfront. Has failed to take the next step required to win this.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

You’ll need a small act of faith to believe Ace High can turn it all around, but he’s easily one of Australia’s better stayers.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Was super impressive winning the Derby here last year but hasn’t really come on enough to suggest a winning chance here. His Caulfield Cup run was poor after getting a good time of it in front and really hard to see him turning it around up in trip here. Would be a shock winner.

9. Marmelo

Trainer: $16/$4.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman (55.5kg)
Barrier: 10
Odds: $16/$4.60
Last 6: 9×2112
Career: 16: 5-6-1
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Distance: 1: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 1: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Marmelo is the forgotten horse in the race, as in last year’s edition he was sent out equal favourite, however managed to finished ninth after running a very good race in the Caulfield Cup. He comes into this first up which suits, and off his last start second in the Prix Kergorlay he rates as an excellent chance. He’s twice a winner over 3000m and from barrier 10 he maps to get a very good run throughout. The stable clearly prefers him first up, as he comes into this straight away. He’ll run a very good race at double figures. Top three chance.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Ran on very well in 2017 Caulfield Cup with pattern no help at his first run in Australia. Then failed in 2017 Melbourne Cup with stable declaring he didn’t back up. They tackle this race fresh in Australia this year! Beat Weekender (form ties in with Magic Circle/Muntahaa) then beat all bar Holdthasigreen in G2 Kergorlay (3000m). That horse then Group 3-placed.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Was a beaten favourite in this race last year after having a run in the Caulfield Cup. Didn’t start at Caulfield this year which may work in his favour. Won the Kergolay last start and finished second in the same race last year. He’s right in play.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Back from a spell. Finished off last campaign 2nd of 10 starters at Deauville in the G2 Prix Kergorlay in Aug over 3000m, 2-1/2 len behind Holdthasigreen with 60kg. When resuming last campaign 2nd of 10 runners at Longchamp in the G2 Prix Vicomtesse in May over 3000m, a long-neck behind Vazirabad with 58kg. Talented French galloper who led until well into the straight in this last year and was solid in defeat. Sure to give a huge sight.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Relatively lightly raced for a 6YO with just 16 starts, most of which have been in top grade, under his belt. Came here and was heavily backed to win last year’s Cup and was a weakening 9th after being on pace all the way in good time. Form since has been outstanding. Won 2 stakes races over 2770m and 2800m in Europe but still a slight worry on his ability to run a strong, Group 1 level 3200m right out.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Coming in fresh off 77 days after a solid performance in the G2 Prix Kergolay. Weighted to win with Hugh Bowman and will have supporters around 15/1 from barrier 10.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

A failure last year is hoping to be wiped out of the memory this year with a different approach made by his connections. Last year Marmelo was a top pick, but this year some of his rivals show superior formlines. He’s a place chance for mine, and a win isn’t out of reach, but it’d surprise me to see him get over the likes of Muntahaa and Magic Circle.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

The beaten favourite from last year who is coming in to the race fresh this year. Has been plenty of money around for him with Bluebet and I really like the fact gun jockey Hugh Bowman has elected to stick with him again this year. Not certain he is going well as last year but concede he has a chance.

10. Avilius

Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Glyn Schofield (54.5kg)
Barrier: 11
Odds: $13/$4
Last 6: x11114
Career: 12: 6-1-2
Track: 1: 1-0-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Avilius has been nearly faultless in his preparation for this, and prior to Yucatan’s win in the Herbert Power he was actually a warm favourite to win this race. Since arriving in Australia from France, the son of Pivotal has won four from five, and his only taste of defeat came in the Cox Plate behind Winx. Prior to his arrival in Australia, Avilius had placed behind Cracksman at Group 2 level, which reads very well for this as Cracksmen has he is currently rated as one of the best horses in the world. Avilius is unknown over 3200m, but his win in the Bart Cummings over 2500m was very good, and The Wolf suspects that he will be able to handle the 3200m on offer in this. Contender.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Won four of five in Australia and was sound last-start fourth in Cox Plate to Winx in the miss. Top effort to win Bart Cummings with big weight at 2500m but never raced beyond that trip. Has split the world-class Cracksman and Geelong Cup placegetter Finche at home.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Gained his spot in the big one winning the Bart Cummings at Flemington and did enough in the Cox Plate at WFA to be right in this with 54.5kg on his back.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Recent form hard to fault. Last outing shifted in near 100m; 4th of 8 runners at Moonee Valley in the G1 W S Cox Plate Oct 27 over 2040m, 7-3/4 len behind Winx with 59kg. The start before that won by a nose (protested against, dismissed; laid in concluding stages; rider charged with careless riding) this track G3 Bart Cummings Oct 6 over 2500m defeating Jaameh carrying 58.5kg. Sound in the Cox Plate and this more suitable. Nice weight and won only start here. Genuine each way chance.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Has outstanding staying potential and is a race horse in great form. Won 4 in a row from 1600m to 2500m including the Group 3 Bart Cummings before taking on the silk brigade and getting smashed by Winx. As everyone does. Did run on but as good as he has been, there remains a doubt about his ability to run 3200m out hard at Group 1 level. If he can conserve his energy and come hard, he does have a powerful finishing burst.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Like the pathway Godolphin chose here competing in the Cox Plate after his win in the Bart Cummings 2500m at Flemington. Horse obviously thriving and definite winning chance after a faultless preparation.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

The horse needs three things to go right: enough speed in the race without burning his legs, luck coming from the back of the pack, and getting the 3200m.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

He won four in a row when arrived in Australia before a gallant fourth behind Winx in the Cox Plate. He showed a brilliant turn of speed when winning in Sydney early in the preparation and then gutsed it out strongly when winning the Bart Cummings over 2500m. Some question mark at 3200m but one of the main chances.

11. Yucatan

Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Jockey: James McDonald (54.5kg)
Barrier: 23
Odds: $5/$2
Last 6: 360131
Career: 13: 3-3-3
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Yucatan skyrocketed into Melbourne Cup contention, following his dominant win in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes last start, where he led all of the way before being eased up on the line to win by a length. He could have very easily have won by six lengths or more, but James McDonald elected to ease him down and save him for his grand final; The Melbourne Cup. His performance that day is very hard to ignore, and although he is drawn wide, he appears to have the gate speed to cross and settle himself somewhere close to the speed then he’ll give himself every chance. Top three chance.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Phenomenal Australian debut when wide, worked mid-race yet raced away 600m from home and bolted in with the Herbert Power. He was much better than 2014 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist, who came through that race. Has placed to The Cliffsofmoher and was a length off 2017 Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling in April last year. Has to run the 3200m. Deserves to be favourite.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Burst into calculations with an arrogant win in the Herbert Power when eased down near the line. Still well weighted despite the 2.5kg penalty and will take a power of beating.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Second-up today. First-up after two months won by 1-1/4 len (ran wide early, middle stages; rider told to use more care) Caulfield G2 Herbert Power Oct 13 over 2400m defeating Brimham Rocks with 56kg. Previously second-up 3rd of 7 starters at Naas in the G2 Mooresbridge in May over 2011m, 1-3/4 len behind The Cliffsofmoher with 58.5kg. Crushed his rivals eased down at Australian debut and the two behind him were dominant in Saturday’s Lexus. Further improved and the one to beat.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Here’s a horse coming good at precisely the right time. Certainly looks an emerging staying star based on his effortless win over Group 1 placegetter Brimham Rocks and subsequent Group 2 winner A PRINCE OF ARRAN last start. Circled the field that day at Caulfield, caught them napping, raced 6 lengths clear and was eased down to win by a 1 and 1/4 lengths. Is by Galileo so should handle the trip but does have a horror draw. Will no doubt cover plenty of ground in the run. Is quite brilliant though.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Market favourite with plenty of hype around him. James McDonald gave him an 11/10 ride and eased him down over the final 100m at his Australian debut in the Herbert Power. That race is a great pathway for this race and reports from Werribee are very positive. Gate 23 is a worry, but a slow rated surface may provide a bigger headache.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Absolute top chance, but does have a question mark on his ability to run a tough 3200m. His odds are super short!

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

He won the Herbert Power like he was powered by a V8 and if you believe what you saw that day then it is hard to see how he gets beaten. Was simply superb that day and has gun jockey James McDonald to give him the right run. May be some question mark if gets really wet and at 3200m but he is the only one Bluebet punters have wanted in the past week and will be a strip out for bookies if he wins. Rightfully clear favourite.

12. Auvray

Trainer: Richard Freedman
Jockey: Tommy Berry (54kg)
Barrier: 1
Odds: $61/$15
Last 6: 4×5266
Career: 39: 8-4-1
Track: 2: 0-0-0
Distance: 2: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Well beaten in the Sydney St Leger last start over 2600m, he didn’t show a great deal that day to suggest that he would be winning a Melbourne Cup. In his favour however, is that he has won over 3000m twice before in his career, and his fourth place in this year’s Sydney Cup was full of merit. Prefer others.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Battled on very heavy ground last time. Ran on well with 57kg against a slow speed in G1 Metropolitan. Second horse there, Brimham Rocks, then ran second to the favourite here in Yucatan, then second in Saturday’s Lexus. Has won twice at 3000m.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Great for connections to have a runner but is aiming too high.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last run rider – didn’t handle going and lost a plate; got back early 6th of 10 runners at Randwick St Leger Stakes Oct 13 over 2600m, on rain affected going; 8-1/2 len behind Big Blue carrying 57.5kg. The run before that made some head-way from midfield; 6th of 18 runners at Randwick in the G1 The Metrop Sep 29 over 2400m, 1-3/4 len behind Patrick Erin with 57kg. Well held in easier grade latest but not disgraced start prior in the Metropolitan. Doesn’t pose too much of a threat today.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Finished hard from 13th on bend to be beaten just on a length in the Group 1 Sydney Cup this journey last campaign. This time up, has had 4 runs, all solid without really flattering but has carried big weights in all of them. Can stay and has drawn to get a great run on the fence in middle of the pack all the way. Will need a few gaps to appear in the lane but at huge, huge odds, should be hitting the line with gusto.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

No

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Auvray is a great horse to cheer on as he won’t give up on you. But if he wins, it’ll be a huge shock because he hasn’t won a race of any kind of serious stature.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Brave locally trained stayer who always tries hard but does look to be outclassed here. Well beaten in the Metropolitan and the St Leger which are both weaker than the Cup. Will run an honest race but a top 10 finish would be about the best he can hope for.

13. Finche

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Zac Purton (54kg)
Barrier: 15
Odds: $26/$7
Last 6: x65513
Career: 9: 3-0-3
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Last start third placegtter in the Geelong Cup over 2400m, who prior to that had been running in some solid form races in France, including a strong placing behind Tiberian at Deauville. For a first up performance in Australia his third in the Geelong Cup was good, but he is an unknown commodity out to 3200m and his previous form over 2400m without winning doesn’t indicate that he will be a better horse over 3200m.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Good Australian debut finding the line in Geelong Cup, which was mostly on-pace dominated. Won well prior beating Tiberian, who ran seventh in this race last year. Boasts third to Cracksman and Avilius last September. First go 3200m. Boasts a third to Cracksman and Avilius.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Worked home nicely when third in the Geelong Cup having his first Australian start. Would need to improve on that but can do so with the first-up run under his belt.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Having second run back today. Last start overraced early stages; 3rd of 15 runners at Geelong in the G3 Geelong Cup Oct 24 over 2400m, 1-3/4 len behind Runaway with 59kg. At only start last preparation won by 1-3/4 len Deauville G3 Prix De Reux in Aug over 2500m defeating Tiberian carrying 60kg. Former French galloper who ran very well at Australian debut to place at Geelong. Useful type and looks a definite improver.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Fascinating big horse. Created a bit of an impression when he loomed up to win the Group 3 Geelong Cup over 2400m when resuming from a spell. He wilted to land 3rd spot behind rival RUNAWAY but he carried 59kg and he should be much fitter now. Winning here 2nd up might present a problem over this trip at Group 1 level but there is no doubting he is a world class stayer when he’s on song. Should finish top 10.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Lightly raced stayer who needed the run at Geelong as he’d been behind in his work since arriving in Australia. Zac Purton is as good as any, but this race may have come to soon for him.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

He has some nice French form, he’s had a run, he drops weight into the Cup, and should enjoy 3200m. He’s not the best horse in the race but he can go much better than he did in Geelong.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Was very heavily backed in the Geelong Cup when having his first run in Australia but couldn’t run down the leader in a race that suited on pacers. His French form is very good and he did grind away well at Geelong. He will need to improve on that run but is trained by Chris Waller who will have him peaking and is a top 3 chance.

14. Red Cardinal

Trainer: Darren Weir
Jockey: Damien Oliver (54kg)
Barrier: 5
Odds: $41/$11
Last 6: x08030
Career: 16: 5-3-2
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Distance: 3: 2-0-0
Trk/Dist: 1: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Red Cardinal holds two wins over 3200m across his short 15-start career, both against very good company in the Group 2 Oleander-Rennen, and then in the Group 3 Belmont Gold Cup in New York. He can clearly stay, but since his two staying wins he has shown very little, and The Wolf has doubts around whether he can reach that level again. The stable must be respected, and Damien Oliver sure knows how to win a Melbourne Cup, but he looks to be an exotics chance at best.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Finished an 11-length 11th in this race last year as a $16 chance. Sole placing in Australia was on heavy. Fair in track-record time at the Valley last start, but needs to improve.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Would need to find something to be a top ten chance.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last outing made some head-way from midfield; 11th of 15 starters at Moonee Valley in the G2 M. Valley Cup Oct 27 over 2500m, 6-3/4 len behind Ventura Storm with 57kg. Before that jumped awkwardly; 3rd of 10 starters at Randwick St Leger Stakes Oct 13 over 2600m, on a wet track; 4-1/4 len behind Big Blue with 58.5kg. Looks tested on lead up form. May get back too far but will wind up late.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Bred to be a stayer. Is a 3200m winner at Group 2 level in Germany and also a Group 2 winner this trip in the US. But that was last year. Finished 11th in this race last year when in form, so it’s hard finding a reason for him now after 5 pretty average runs this time up. Not keen.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Not going well enough.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Just going so poorly that just running in the top half looks pretty unlikely. He’s a better horse than that, but doesn’t have any form to give proper hope.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Was well backed at good odds in the Cup last year but has never lived up to his reputation. His recent runs have been average at best and I find it hard to make any kind of case for him. Has Darren Weir training him and Damien Oliver riding which are big pluses but about the only ones.

15. Vengeur Masque

Trainer: Michael Moroney
Jockey: Patrick Moloney (54kg)
Barrier: 2
Odds: $51/$13
Last 6: 5×4059
Career: 26: 4-5-0
Track: 6: 1-2-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Michael Moroney trained stayer who has won over 2500m and 2600m previously in his career, however since then he has been running unplaced in Listed and Group 3 races. His run in the Caulfield Cup was improved, but he looks well out of his depth against this field.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Shuffled back off slow speed in Caulfield Cup and made late ground. He ran as well as subsequent G2 MV Cup winner Ventura Storm. Ran quite well here in Bart Cummings behind Avilius. Won Queen Elizabeth Stakes here last year at 2600m.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Caulfield Cup run wasn’t good enough. Happy to risk.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last run checked early stages; 9th of 18 runners at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup Oct 20 over 2400m, slow track; 4-3/4 len behind Best Solution with 54kg. The run before that 5th of 12 starters at this track in the G3 Bart Cummings Oct 6 over 2500m, 5-1/4 len behind Avilius with 57kg. Tends to get back too far. Others better.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Is very smart on his day but hasn’t placed at his last 6 races and that is a telling stat – especially in this really tough Group 1 race.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Racing well but just lacks a touch of class. Will get a soft run in transit but would be a ‘Prince Of Penzance’ type story if he won.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Not the worst and will be there at the end, but unlikely to crack the top six because he’s just a bit off the highest class needed.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

He was flying last year when he missed a run in the Cup when would have been a chance. Sadly I don’t think he is going anywhere near as well as last year so a win would surprise. The Caulfield Cup run was sound but would need to continue to improve to be a winning hope.

16. Ventura Storm

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Mark Zahra (54kg)
Barrier: 7
Odds: $26/$7
Last 6: x79401
Career: 29: 7-3-2
Track: 6: 0-1-1
Distance: 2: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 1: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Strong win in the Moonee Valley Cup at Group 2 level last start over 2500m, he was well backed that day and managed to salute in style. Prior to that he hadn’t recorded a single win in Australia, and his form is far too inconsistent to get excited, especially for a Melbourne Cup. He’s a Group 1 winner in Italy, but this is a massive step up in class and The Wolf isn’t expecting him to win, he had his win a fortnight ago at Moonee Valley.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Was not far off Winx in G1 Turnbull then ran on nicely against the slow speed in G1 Caulfield Cup. Had good run and well backed to win G2 MV Cup in track-record time. Beaten eight lengths in G1 Sydney Cup earlier this year behind Who Shot Thebarman.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Returned to the winner’s list in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. Rates a place chance.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Useful gelding. Last outing won by a long-neck Moonee Valley G2 M. Valley Cup Oct 27 over 2500m defeating Trap For Fools carrying 55kg. Before that blocked for run in straight; 10th of 18 starters at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup Oct 20 over 2400m, slow track; 5-3/4 len behind Best Solution carrying 54kg. Impressive win last start but far tougher here. Could sneak a place at odds.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Has his share of staying talent and when first brought to Australia from Britain last year he came as a Group 1 winner and with a huge wrap. But it took him 17 races before he won a race. That did come last start so he is in form. Came with a solid burst at Moonee Valley at Group 2 level to run down Trap For Fools over 2500m. Hadn’t been far away in 2 very strong Group 1 races prior to that so is a sneaky place chance.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

A much better horse since his wind operation. Had the perfect run in the Moonee Valley Cup and can run into the placings.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

His best form doesn’t come at this distance and that rules him out of contention for the win.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Was backed off the map with Bluebet when won the Moonee Valley Cup last start in what was his first win in 17 starts in Australia. He also got home very nicely in the Caulfield Cup but is a query at the trip. He is flying the preparation though and while a win would surprise, I don’t think he is hopeless and a trifecta chance.

17. A Prince Of Arran

Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
Jockey: Michael Walker (53kg)
Barrier: 20
Odds: $17/$5
Last 6: 632×31
Career: 28: 5-6-3
Track: 1: 1-0-0
Distance: 6: 1-1-1
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Trained by Charlie Fellowes, A Prince Of Arran has raced in four countries this year – the United Kingdom, Dubai, USA and now Australia, where he recorded his latest win in the Hotham Handicap over 2500m. Prior to his Hotham Handicap win his form overseas was mediocre, but the best of his runs came in the Group 2 Belmont Cup over 3200m, displaying to The Wolf that he could stay. However, he has previously lined up against both Yucatan and Magic Circle, the latter of which defeated him by nine lengths in the Chester Cup and The Wolf is struggling to see how he turns the tables on him here. Prefer others.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Had the perfect run/ride to score a convincing win in Saturday’s Lexus Stakes, earning himself the guernsey here. Kept chasing hard behind the dominant Yucatan in G2 Herbert Power. Easily beat Gallic Chieftain (OK in Caulfield Cup). Hasn’t backed up before. Only win from eight starts over similar distances was in seven-horse ratings race in Dubai. Does have that second to Withhold, who was fancied but had excuses in Geelong Cup.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Burst into calculations winning the Lexus on Saturday after a solid debut in Australia when third in the Herbert Power. Avoided a penalty and can run well.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming from a spell jumped awkwardly; 3rd of 15 starters at Caulfield in the G2 Herbert Power Oct 13 over 2400m, 1-3/4 len behind Yucatan with 57kg. Raced here on Saturday in the Lexus over 2500m carrying 57.5kg and was a strong winner. Was no match for Yucatan two back but meets him 3kg better here. In top form and is an each way chance on the quick back up.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Everything about this horse ticks a box. He is on the quick back up from winning at Group 3 level in the 2500m Hotham on Saturday. For many years in a row that was the preferred and most successful lead up plan. Add to that he was a great and fast finishing 3rd to YUCATAN in the Group 2 Herbert Power at Aussie debut start prior. Was placed this trip in Belmont Cup and has placed this trip at the tough Newmarket course also with 60kg. Is very strong, reliable and is peaking at exactly the right time. Big player.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Michael Walker looked after him on Saturday in the Lexus Stakes and he held out Brimham rocks soundly. Query at 3200m but wouldn’t totally shock.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

English raider with good Aussie form. Rough winning chance to become the King of Melbourne too.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

He is a really good strong stayer who is in form after winning the Lexus at Flemington at Saturday. Was smashed by Yucatan in the Herbert Power but has won in Dubai over 3200m and should be rock hard fit and gets in with no weight. Should be strong at the end of two miles and a top 3 chance.

18. Nakeeta

Trainer: Iain Jardine
Jockey: Regan Bayliss (53kg)
Barrier: 3
Odds: $61/$15
Last 6: 005770
Career: 38: 5-8-3
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Distance: 2: 0-1-0
Trk/Dist: 1: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Nakeeta returns here for his second Melbourne Cup, after placing fifth in this race last year behind Rekindling. Since then his form has been patchy at best, where he has finished unplaced in all six of his starts, including a last start 13th place behind Ventura Storm in the Moonee Valley Cup. Admittedly he will be better at Flemington, but The Wolf doesn’t doesn’t expect him to finish any better than the fifth place he finished last year.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Strong-finishing fifth in this last year off an Ebor win. Unplaced all runs since and beaten over 7L in this year’s Ebor behind Muntahaa (in slick time). Back and thrashed at the Valley. Needs to find best again.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Ran fifth in this race last year however beaten a country mile in the Moonee Valley Cup having his first Australian start. A win would surprise.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last start blocked for run on straightening; 13th of 15 runners at Moonee Valley in the G2 M. Valley Cup Oct 27 over 2500m, 14-1/2 len behind Ventura Storm carrying 55kg. The run before that 7th of 14 starters at Doncaster 3yo+ Hcp (110) Sep 14 over 2922m, 5-1/2 len behind Just In Time carrying 61.5kg. Not going well enough. Fully tested under these conditions.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Was a good stayer this time last year but form over past 6 months has been woeful. Finished 22 lengths behind rival A PRINCE OF ARRAN in June, and last start was 14 lengths behind VENTURA STORM in Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup. No thanks.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Not going well enough.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Few would be giving Nakeeta a chance based on his form. A win would be a genuine shock, but it’d be a great for a Scottish trainer.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

He was luckless in the race last year but form seems to have dropped right off since then. He ran near the tail in the Moonee Valley Cup and the winner of that race is a $26 chance here. It is very hard to make a case for him on that performance and would need to find some old form to be a hope.

19. Sir Charles Road

Trainer: Lance O’Sullivan & Andrew Scott
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn (53kg)
Barrier: 53kg
Odds: $91/$21
Last 6: x01473
Career: 24: 6-5-4
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 2: 0-0-1
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Sir Charles Road is a New Zealand galloper, who holds just the one win in Australia, in the Group 2 Chairman’s Stakes. Since then he has performed admirably, placing at Group 1 level in the Sydney Cup and also a last start third in the Bendigo Cup, where he finished only half a length off the winner. He can stay, and he has shown that across his career, but The Wolf has doubts around whether he has the class to match it with the European Raiders, especially as they have been winning everything thus far. Not here. Maybe a Sydney or Adelaide Cup in 2019.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Placed in Sydney Cup in the autumn. Showed some improvement at Bendigo, but might lack the class of others and would need to find many lengths.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Placed in the Bendigo Cup last start but confident that isn’t a strong enough form line for the Cup.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last outing struck interference early stages; 3rd of 13 runners at Bendigo in the G3 Bendigo Cup Oct 31 over 2400m, long-neck behind Red Alto with 57kg. The run before that hampered near turn; raced behind the speed prior to fading to run last at Caulfield in the G3 Coongy Cup Oct 20 over 2000m, slow track; 5-1/2 len behind Best Of Days with 58kg. In the finish latest but looks tested here.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Useful stayer in form but wouldn’t win this race with a head start. Isn’t as good as pretty much all of these.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Don’t think the Bendigo Cup form is strong enough to make him a winning chance but will stay 3200m and likes wet.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Great for the Kiwis to have a runner, but if he won, the only people who would’ve bet on him would be those over in the land of the long white cloud. He can’t win if you believe in form.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Well performed Kiwi stayer but this is a massive step up in class. Placed in a Sydney Cup and the Bendigo Cup last week but this is whole different story and if he could work home well for a top 10 finish, I think connections would be delighted.

20. Zacada

Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
Jockey: Damian Lane (53kg)
Barrier: 24
Odds: $126/$26
Last 6: 2×0080
Career: 36: 4-7-5
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Distance: 2: 0-1-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Zacada is another who comes through the Sydney Cup, where he was narrowly defeated by a fast finishing Who Shot Thebarman over the 3200m distance. Since then his form has been patchy at best, and he hasn’t recorded a single top three finish. He was beaten by eight lengths in the Bart Cummings and then seven lengths in the Geelong Cup, and The Wolf is struggling to see how can turn around his form and win this. He’s another who potentially will find his way to a Sydney or Adelaide Cup in 2019, and be very competitive.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Touched off by Who Shot Thebarman in the Sydney Cup. His form this prep lacks substance though. Others preferred.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Finished a close second in the Sydney Cup in the Autumn but his form this preparation is nowhere near good enough.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last run 12th of 15 runners at Geelong in the G3 Geelong Cup Oct 24 over 2400m, 7 len behind Runaway carrying 56.5kg. The race before that jumped awkwardly; 8th of 12 runners at this track in the G3 Bart Cummings Oct 6 over 2500m, 8-1/4 len behind Avilius with 56.5kg. Looks the outsider and drawn the outside gate as well.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Bred to be a stayer. Started at $101 and came hard late when 2nd to rival WHO SHOT THEBARMAN in the Group 1 Sydney Cup this trip in April. Form in 4 starts since has been absolutely hopeless. No chance.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Can improve dramatically from the Geelong Cup and has now built a great fitness platform. Can see him running top 10.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Repeat what I said about Sir Charles Road. He can’t win this.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Another Kiwi who is suited to two miles but probably outclassed here. Ran a good race in the Sydney Cup when second to Who Shot Thebarman at huge odds but hasn’t done a lot since then. Would need a huge turnaround in form to be a place chance here.

21. Runaway

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Stephen Baster (52kg)
Barrier: 12
Odds: $31/$8.50
Last 6: 30×341
Career: 17: 4-3-3
Track: 2: 1-0-0
Distance: 1: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 1: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Runaway ran away with it at Geelong in the Cup and although he won well that day, The Wolf can’t see him doing it again, especially against this calibre of opposition. Trained by Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott, this son of Manhattan Rain will look the winner for at least half of the race, but whilst his position in running ensures that he gets his chance, he lacks the class to be winning, especially against the northern hemisphere gallopers.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Led/kept running to win G3 Geelong Cup beating one who had just chased home Avilius, 3rd-horse Finch has placed to world-class Cracksman at 2400m. Won St Leger here in April at 2800m.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Led all the way to win the Geelong Cup. The likely leader passing the winning post the first time but lacks the class to be there at the finish.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last outing won by 3/4 len Geelong G3 Geelong Cup Oct 24 over 2400m defeating Northwest Passage carrying 54kg. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 11 runners at Cranbourne in the LR Cranbourne Cup Oct 14 over 2025m, 1-1/2 len behind Octabello with 54kg. Speed galloper who has hit form at the right time and did win the St Leger here in the Autumn. Can give a sight at odds.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Is a front runner who has a stakes win here in the St Leger and also a Group 3 win last start in the Geelong Cup when leading all the way. Both times he was left alone in front. Trip is a worry as he led and weakened in the 3200m Ramsden earlier this year. And that race is a LOT weaker than this. Will run them all along though but he may hook up in the lead with ROSTROPROVICH which would mean he finishes near last.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Will have more pressure than when he did in winning the Geelong Cup. Hard to see him winning.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Runaway should lead the field, but shouldn’t be able to win from that position given what we’ve seen of his form.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Very honest local stayer trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Is a bold front running type who will be up on the speed and try to give them something to catch. He won the VRC St Leger here earlier in year and then ran them off their feet in the Geelong Cup. I think something will run him down here but will give them something to catch and concede he has a place chance.

22. Youngstar

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Craig Williams (51.5kg)
Barrier: 8
Odds: $16/$4.60
Last 6: 136327
Career: 12: 4-1-3
Track: 1: 0-1-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Queensland Oaks winner who finished a distant seventh in the Caulfield Cup, although she was beaten by five lengths that day, she put in a very encouraging performance that a step up 3200m may suit. She travelled wide and sat at the rear of the field that day, only to circumnavigate Caulfield. Prior to that she ran an eye catching second to Winx, indicating to The Wolf that she has the class to be competitive here. She’s drawn very well in barrier 8 for jockey Craig Williams and with only 51.5kg on her back she is expected to close off the race well. The Wolf doubts that she will be winning, but she will far from disgrace herself against a few of these. Craig Williams will need to be positive on her to ensure that she gets her chance, especially from the inside draw.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Made Winx work to beat her in G1 Turnbull then ran on very well in G1 Caulfield Cup off the slow speed. Her last 200m split was race-fastest. She looks like she will stay 3200m no worries but is she seasoned enough against the wave of internationals?

Neds – Runner Comments:

The lack of early speed was against her in the Caulfield Cup after stretching Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. Is worth another chance and looks the best of the locals.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last start overraced early, middle stages and lost a plate; pulled up with poor post-race recovery 7th of 18 starters at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup Oct 20 over 2400m, slow track; 4-3/4 len behind Best Solution carrying 51.5kg. Before that made ground from midfield; 2nd of 10 starters at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stakes Oct 6 over 2000m, 1 len behind Winx carrying 54.5kg. Not a lot went right in the Caulfield Cup. Better than that and genuine contender with the light weight.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Brilliant Group 1 winning staying mare who is at her peak now. Made a run with the almost immortal Winx 2 runs back when 2nd to her at WFA in Group 1 Turnbull Stakes then backed that up with a solid and strong finishing 7th to BEST SOLUTION in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. Has no weight here and can run into a place.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Best of the closers in the Caulfield Cup when tempo was against. Likes Flemington which was evident in her run behind Winx in the Turnbull stakes. Drawn barrier 8, Craig Williams suits her, and Chris Waller rarely pushes a 4yo mare far into the deep end. Major player.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

What a great mare, and Chris Waller can certainly train a horse. I just think she’s a risk against quality stayers at 3200m.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

In form mare who was heavily backed with Bluebet to win the Caulfield Cup and has been well backed again here. We took one bet of $50,000 to $1000 each way in September and money has flowed steadily since as she has impressed all campaign. Was a super run when narrowly beaten by Winx in the Turnbull and then never had a chance in Caulfield Cup which I think was a forgive run. I think she is the best value runner in the field.

23. Cross Counter

Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy (51kg)
Barrier: 19
Odds: $9/$3
Last 6: x24112
Career: 7: 4-2-0
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Cross Counter’s form leading into this has been very strong, as he won at Ascot over 2414m before taking out the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. Since then he has placed second at Group 2 level at York and stamped his claims on a potential cup tilt. He must be respected coming from the Godolphin stable, as they have nearly been winning everything, but against Cross Counter is that he had a small setback, where he cut his leg, and although reports suggest that he has healed, missing crucial work before a 3200m race isn’t ideal and The Wolf prefers others because of this.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

First Australian start. Broke the track record in G3 Gordon Stakes then just missed Old Persian in G2 at York. That horse has beaten Rostropovich. Third horse Kew Gardens then won G1 St Leger at Doncaster. Slight setback (cut his leg) is not ideal. Worst career run is fourth. In with no weight.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Finished runner-up at York last start and looked to have his chance to run down the winner. The 3200m looks a query and rough place at best.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Resuming today after a three months break. Finished off last campaign 2nd of 9 starters at York in the G2 Great Voltigeur in Aug over 2385m, a head behind Old Persian carrying 57kg. Previously first up; 2nd of 14 starters at Sandown Park 3yo+ Nov (C5) in Jun over 2001m, 2-3/4 len behind Elwazir with 64kg. Promising UK stayer who rates well here fresh. Has the light weight and Cup winning rider. Expected to measure up.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

He might be very special. That’s because you just don’t see Godolphin horses running in races like this after just 7 race starts. But this bloke, with nothing on his back here looks nicely in. He has already won a Group 3 in record time by nearly 5 lengths at Goodwood in August and last start in the Group 2 2400m Voltigeur at York he humped 57kg and was beaten a nose by Old Persian. This is obviously much harder and he has a bad draw but his form suggests he has a great deal of potential.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Lightly raced stayer for the all-conquering Charlie Appleby yard and Kerrin McEvoy is a significant booking. Early reports from Werribee were that he didn’t travel as well as others. Betting will tell the story late on Betfair and must be respected.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

He’s a little bit like Rekindling last year. A young horse, with decent form, at a lightweight handicap. That’s why the bookmakers are keeping him at short odds. He can win if he gets the distance.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

Trained by the excellent Charlie Appeleby and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, this lightly raced gelding has been attracting plenty of support from Bluebet punters. He has an impressive strike rate and fits the profile of some recent winners. He is among the better chances but is some query at 3200m and while can certainly win, not getting any overs at current price.

24. Rostropovich

Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Barrier: 21
Odds: $26/$7
Last 6: 922515
Career: 13: 4-2-2
Track: 0: 0-0-0
Distance: 0: 0-0-0
Trk/Dist: 0: 0-0-0

BetEasy – The Wolf:

Rostropovich led in the Cox Plate, only to be beaten by nine lengths, but that was clearly just a pipe opener for this, his grand final. His form in the United Kingdom has been quite strong, where he has placed in the Group 2 Kind Edward VII Stakes and also the Irish Derby behind stablemate Latrobe, who is currently fancied to win the Emirates Stakes on Saturday, November 10. Rostropovich scored an excellent Group 3 win two starts ago, and off that he is expected to be competitive but as Ryan Moore is booked to ride The Cliffsofmoher this guy appears to Coolmore’s second stringer behind him.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments:

Shared strong speed at Australian Debut in G1 Cox Plate and held on OK behind Winx. That was weight-for-age so he plummets in the weights here. Strong to line winning G3 prior. Has split Latrobe and Saxon Warrior, the latter then placing behind a superstar in Roaring Lion. First go 3200m.

Neds – Runner Comments:

Is a Northern Hemisphere three-year-old and if that rings a bell so was last year’s Cup winner. Thought he did enough in the Cox Plate to run a huge race here from an on speed position with 51kg on his back.

BetEasy – Runner Comments:

Last outing 5th of 8 runners at Moonee Valley in the G1 W S Cox Plate Oct 27 over 2040m, 8-3/4 len behind Winx with 56kg. The run before that won by 1/2 len Leopardstown G3 Paddy’s Rewards Sep 15 over 2414m defeating Giuseppe Garibaldi with 57.5kg. Promising UK colt who faded late in the Cox Plate but much better suited here. Has the light weight. Might just sneak into multiples.

Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:

Has talent but seems to like to run along and he will have company in that role with RUNAWAY here. And that may bring him unstuck as he is yet to run this trip. Back in Ireland he led and was a close 2nd in the Group 1 Irish Derby over 2417m and prior to that carried same weight when beaten into 2nd by Old Persian at Ascot. Was 5th to Winx in the Group 1 Cox Plate last start after leading. Will have to sprint hard early from this draw and that may test him.

Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:

Not suited at Moonee Valley so expect big improvement stepping out to 3200m here.

The Roar – Melbourne Cup 2018: Preview and top tips:

Rostropovich ticks plenty of boxes for mine, but it’d be nice to know if he can run 3200m or not. If he can, he’s a great chance and at the odds, shows some value. He’s been one of my small bets at the odds, but I’m very uncertain he’ll make 3200m if there’s any kind of serious pace to be made.

BlueBet – Michael Sullivan:

He was Ok in the Cox Plate when not suited by trip or WFA scale and this should be much more to his liking. He drops to 51kg and gun trainer Aidan O’Brien wouldn’t have bought him here for no reason. He will need to have thrived here but like the fact he had a run in Cox Plate and has to go in multiples.

 

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