The following are previews with betting tips for Round 7 of the 2019 AFL season.
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Friday, May 3
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Collingwood vs Port Adelaide7:50pm AEST, Marvel Stadium |
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The Pies seemed to run out of steam in their ANZAC Day clash against the Bombers, dominating the first quarter and a half before struggling for the remainder of the match, but doing just enough to hang on to a slender 4-point margin. They should be feeling fresh for this clash against the Power after a full week’s break, and they’ll need those fresh legs; Port are back in good form, running hard and pressuring their opposition, although they did have a similar sort of fade out to Collingwood when they beat the Roos at home last Friday evening, with North kicking the last five goals of the game. Not that it really mattered, the game was over and they probably already had one eye on this week.
It’ll be interesting to see how the young Power kids go against the Pies in Melbourne. They didn’t have any issues taking on the reigning premiers over in Perth so it seems they’re not easily overawed, but that was in the wet; under the pressure of Friday night footy in perfect conditions, can they keep their cool and perform? I think they’ll give it their all but I’m not sure they’ll have the talent and experience to take down the vaunted Collingwood midfield. It’ll help that big Mason Cox will be out due to an ankle injury. His absence will upset the balance of the Collingwood forward line, though perhaps not as much as expected: Ben Reid is set to come in as a like-for-like (but shorter) replacement. Jamie Elliott also returns as another dangerous forward option, with Travis Varcoe the unlucky one to make way, while Port have lost their most dangerous forward in Robbie Gray. I’m thinking this will be a hot contest for the most part, but I think Collingwood’s class in the middle and the forward half of the ground should prove too much for Port to deal with for four quarters.
Betting tip:Â Collingwood to win @ $1.35 (BetEasy)
Saturday, May 4
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Melbourne vs Hawthorn1:45pm AEST, MCG |
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The Hawks were very lucky to get out of a jail against a newly-confident Carlton team on Sunday afternoon, though they were definitely made to earn their four points; the Blues threw everything they had at Hawthorn in the first half and had Alistair Clarkson’s team on the ropes at half time. The margin was five goals, and the Hawks had only kicked three up to that point. They needed to lift, and lift they did, outscoring the Blues five goals to one in the third team to set-up a thrilling last quarter where they opened up a three goal lead, before having to hang on while the Blues launched their final charge.
It was a timely reminder not to take any side lightly, and with the cellar-dwelling Demons waiting for them this week that message might be reiterated during the week. Of course, there are reasons for the Hawks current struggles with the injury list at Waverley still quite lengthy, although veteran Shaun Burgoyne is set to return this week. Unfortunately, the Demons can’t blame their woes on injury; they were however dealt a blow in their loss to the Tigers on Wednesday night, with co-captain Jack Viney hurt by a huge Sydney Stack bump. He won’t be able to help attempt lift the Demons this weekend, but plenty of his teammates who are down on form still have that opportunity. Their season is over in terms of any significant premiership challenge, but they need to turn things around to salvage something from the year before it’s too late. As talented as some of their players are, it’s hard to see much changing at the moment, and I think the Hawks will beat them relatively comfortably.
Betting tip:Â Hawthorn to win @ $1.76 (Sportsbet)
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GWS Giants vs St Kilda1:45pm AEST, UNSW Canberra Oval |
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The Saints were brought back down to Earth on Saturday afternoon when the Crows came to Marvel Stadium and dominated them from quarter time onwards. They didn’t look quite as determined as in previous weeks, although their butchering of the ball obviously didn’t help. They might have been due for a down week, or perhaps they missed their skipper Jarryn Geary more than expected. Either way, they’ve got credits in the bank, but they’ll be disappointed they dropped what was definitely a winnable game, especially since they’ve got a tough month ahead of them.
That starts when they travel north to take on a Giants team fresh off a SCG belting of the Swans, as well as the morale-boosting news of superstar midfielder Josh Kelly signing on for another two years at the club. The Giants are now in a good position to attack the rest of their season, and I expect that will begin with a win over the Saints on Saturday. They’ve had a few small hiccups so far, but they’ll be on their game this week; they can’t afford to drop another home game like they did against the Dockers. Expect the Giants to win this one with ease.
Betting tip: GWS (-31.5) @ $1.91 (Bet365)
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Brisbane vs Sydney4:35pm AEST, The Gabba |
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The Lions fought off a pesky Gold Coast for the first half of Saturday’s QClash, before blitzing their younger rivals in the second half to record a healthy 49-point victory. They’re now back to a positive win-loss ledger, sitting on four wins after six rounds of footy, with a great opportunity to record their fifth win when they host the Swans on Saturday. Sydney yet again struggled to play their best footy at the SCG, but to be fair, the Giants probably would’ve beaten them by a similar margin at any ground in the country. This looks like being the down year the Swans have been due for for a long time now, but being up for so long doesn’t make it any easier. It probably makes it harder, if anything, but there’s plenty of young talent there for the long term. Things aren’t looking great short term though, and with Lance Franklin due to miss another week it’s really difficult to imagine the Swans beating the Lions in this one; Brisbane are dangerous all over the ground and have a firing midfield the Swans will need to nullify, while the Swans are patching holes and hoping they don’t leak too much. It’ll be interesting to see how they fare in this one, but I’m expecting the Lions get up by at least six goals.
Betting tip: Brisbane By 25+ @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)
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Western Bulldogs vs Richmond7:25pm AEST, Marvel Stadium |
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After three consecutive wins the Tigers are back in the top eight and looking like themselves once more. The hunger is back, as is the quick ball movement and forward half pressure. There are still some kinks to iron out; Dusty’s still rusty, Jack is injured again, and so is David Astbury, but the signs are looking good. They should be able to make it four wins on the trot without too much trouble against the Bulldogs on Saturday evening.
The Dogs were much improved in their game against the Dockers, but that’s not saying much considering how poorly they played against the Blues the week prior. They had every chance to steal a rare victory in Perth, but their ball use and conversion is still killing them. If they had a decent forward line and some guys who could deliver the ball to those forwards they’d be a very good team, but they continually butcher the ball forward of the centre and it makes them a very easy team to defend. You’d expect the Tigers will make the most of that; they love scoring from turnovers, and they should get plenty from the Dogs if their pressure is up. The absence of Jack Riewoldt will comfort the undersized Dogs’ defence, but I don’t think it’ll be a decisive factor in the match; the Tigers should be much too fast and skilful for the slow and sloppy Dogs, and I think they’ll win it pretty comfortably.
Betting tip: Richmond By 25+ @ $2.10 (Bet365)
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West Coast vs Gold Coast8:10pm AEST, Optus Stadium |
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The Suns need to be really careful they don’t waste a great start to the season; their last two outings have resulted in big losses, and there’s every chance it’ll be another one if they don’t bring their best footy to Perth on Saturday night. They worked really hard to be super competitive in the first month of the season, but old habits die hard and another big loss could see them lose confidence and slip back down into last year’s poor form. The Eagles have also had a bad couple of weeks, with a surprise loss to Port followed by a belting by Geelong on Sunday afternoon. They won’t be the only good team to cop a hiding from the Cats in Geelong this year, but they’ll need to recover quickly and ensure they record a healthy win in this one; they’re now a game outside of the eight and have a very poor percentage.
It’s still very early days, but the Eagles will be hoping to head into the finals with a double chance, so obviously they need to start winning and building up that percentage. The Suns look to be an easy target and one they could take full advantage of after a down fortnight. I’m hoping the Suns can match it with the Eagles for the majority of the game and avoid a huge loss, but I’m expecting the Eagles will get right on top of them and ensure they have a significant win in this one.
Betting tip: West Coast By 40+ @ $1.60 (UniBet)
Sunday, May 5
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Carlton vs North Melbourne1:10pm AEST, Marvel Stadium |
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The Blues were ever-so close to their second win in as many weeks when they torched the Hawks in the first half of Sunday’s game, but a lacklustre third quarter allowed their opposition back into it and the Blues weren’t able to fully recover, despite their best efforts in the final minutes. It was a disappointing result but an effort they’ll be pleased with, and the positive news is they’ve got another real chance of a victory this weekend when they take on the Kangaroos. If they play like they did against the Dogs or in the first half against the Hawks they’ll beat North Melbourne, as simple as that. Despite some improvement in the last quarter of their loss to Port, the Roos are still off the boil and are suspect in too many areas of the ground for it to be a quick fix. Their best players aren’t having the impact they’d like, and their lesser players are struggling to find the pace of the game. Ben Brown isn’t hitting the scoreboard as often as usual, although the Roos may have found another forward option in Nick Larkey, who bobbed up with three goals in just his third game of AFL footy.
Shaun Higgins will come back into the North team after missing last week due to illness, while Matthew Kreuzer is back on the sidelines for Carlton, and he’s joined by Kade Simpson, Mitch McGovern and Nic Newman. That perhaps tips this one in North’s favour, which is unfortunate for the Blues because I reckon they’d win this without all of those outs.
Betting tip: Kangaroos By 1-39 @ $2.30 (TopBetta)
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Geelong vs Essendon3:20pm AEST, MCG |
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This one is set to the game of the round, and nothing else comes close. The Cats are one game clear on top of the ladder and have been in great form all year, while the Bombers have turned their season around in dramatic fashion, going from a potential wooden-spooner to a potential top four team in the space of a month. What happens on Sunday is anyone’s guess; will the Cats continue their dominance and record another victory against strong opposition, or will the Bombers make amends for their heartbreaking loss to the Pies on Anzac Day to claim their first big scalp of the season?
It should be a fascinating battle, and I reckon it’ll be a great game to watch as well. Both clubs are capable of playing free-flowing, high-scoring footy, and with any luck they might put on a shootout for us on Sunday. That would probably suit the Bombers slightly more than Geelong, so Chris Scott might not be all that thrilled with a four-quarter shootout, but I’m sure there’ll be times of high-scoring when either team has the momentum. Whichever club is best able to capitalise on that is likely to win this one, and while the Bombers have been very impressive in the last month, the Cats have winning form and know what needs to be done to get over the line; I’m backing them to beat the Bombers in another really tight game of footy.
Betting tip:Â Geelong to win @ $1.52 (BetFair)
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Adelaide vs Fremantle4:40pm AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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Is there a glimmer of hope back in Adelaide’s 2019 season? Maybe so; two consecutive wins has them back within grasp of the top eight, but it’s more the manner in which they’ve played that’s most exciting. They look dangerous again, and they haven’t looked that way for quite some time. Granted, they’ve only beaten the Suns and the Saints, but if they can build on that confidence and bring the same brand of footy into this game against the Dockers you’d think they’ll be hard to beat. The Dockers will give it a fair crack though; they’re no longer a bottom side in 2019. Another win, this one against the Bulldogs in Perth, has them sitting in second position and primed to attack the rest of the season. They probably weren’t at their absolute best against the Dogs, but it would’ve been an emotional week leading up to David Mundy’s 300th game, so they’ll just be happy they got the job done and can move onto this week without the fanfare and build-up.
I’m interested to see how Adelaide’s midfield go against Fremantle; they’ve won the battle the last two weeks against Gold Coast and North Melbourne, but the Dockers have a much faster and skilful midfield. If the Crows can match it with them there, they should be able to win this one, but if the Dockers can run and spread from the middle of the ground the Crows might struggle to keep up. It should be a great battle to watch, and while I’ve been impressed by Adelaide the last two weeks, I’m sticking with the Dockers in this one.
Betting tip: Fremantle to win @ $3.30 (BetEasy)
Best Bets of the Round
Brisbane By 25+ @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)