The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Saturday, November 21. The focus is on the group and listed races at Ascot, along with the Ballarat Cup (Race 8) at Ballarat and The Gong (Race 7) at Kembla Grange. The highlight at Ascot is the Group 1 Railway Stakes (Race 8). More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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These may change leading up to the race day as more tips come in.
Ascot Race 4: 4. Chantorque
Ballarat Race 8: 10. Affair to Remember
Kembla Grange Race 7: 7. Dawn Passage
Race 7: 1. Flower Of War
Best bet: Kay Cee
Exotic: Boxed Trifecta: 4,8,9,11,14
1. Kay Cee
2. Inspirational Girl
3. Red Can Man
4. Cup Night
5. Too Close The Sun
1 – Kay Cee (5.50), 2 – Truly Great (12.00), 3 – Inspirational Girl (3.80)
Race 4 #4 Chantorque – BEST BET
CHANTORQUE (4) Nice effort when winning last time here and likely to be well placed early. Flying this campaign with 2 wins from 2 starts. Capable of taking this out. CHARLETON EDDIE (1) Game effort to win three runs back at Belmont and should jump out and bowl along. Among better hopes. ACROMANTULA (2) Landed the spoils when winning last run at this venue and dropping weight today. Open to improvement and is a strong chance again. QUEEN BROWN (3) Kept finding the line when 2nd three runs back here. No surprise to see a forward showing and one of the main hopes in this race.
GEMMA’S SON (1) Couldn’t shake them off when 3rd three runs back at this track but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Expecting to settle positively. Worth consideration. DOM TO SHOOT (2) Was first to greet the judge when winning three runs back at this venue and finishes off strongly. Has run into the money 4 from 5 attempts this preparation. Open to improvement and is a strong chance again. WESTERN EMPIRE (17) Good run when finishing 2nd last time here but up in weight today. Will be looking to sit just behind the pace. Chance to break through and a could give a show. BRAVE ANGEL (14) Chimed in with a win two runs back at this track and racing again inside a week. Should land a nice spot just off the speed. Can’t be left out of exotics.
FLOWER OF WAR (1) Lost ground in the run home when 8th last start at this course. Expecting improvement and suited at this distance in the past. Should be going forward early. Should be in the finish. TYCOON STORM (8) Displayed potential when winning last start at this course and very competitive this preparation. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Warrants a bet. SPECIAL CHOICE (7) Really dug deep when winning last run at the track and carrying less weight this time. Drawn to sit just in behind the speed. In the mix. RATION ALY (9) Got the upper hand late when winning last run at Belmont and finishes off strongly. Genuine threat.
INSPIRATIONAL GIRL (11) Got the upper hand late when winning last time at this track but rising in grade. Finishes off strongly. Good enough for this and worth a bet. KAY CEE (4) Landed the spoils when winning last start at this venue and possesses very good closing speed. Well placed and has solid claims. TOO CLOSE THE SUN (14) Having third run back from a break. Had a comfortable win last run at this track and gets a reduction in weight. Big danger. RED CAN MAN (8) Rattled home nicely into 2nd last run here and will appreciate the drop in weight. Should be going forward early. Some place claims.
LAVERROD (9) Really dug deep when winning two runs back at the track and gets a reduction in weight. Should be going forward early. One of the major hopes. FESTIVAL MISS (12) Landed the spoils when winning two runs back at Belmont and expected to be flashing home. Right in this. FLOW (2) Finished 2nd last start here and always seems to find the line well. Strong each way hope. PYM’S ROYALE (8) Made considerable ground when 2nd two runs back at Kalgoorlie. Has scope so do not ignore.
Didn’t think CHANTORQUE could breeze outside CHARLETON EDDIE and beat him last start, but that’s what she did, confirming she is well above average. Is competing beyond 1000m for the first time, but was strong on the line last start and may even get cover in the one-one, so the 1200m isn’t a concern. She’s the horse to beat. Charleton Eddie will be reunited with regular rider Pat Carbery and may be looking for this journey. Will be eager to control things out in front. Like MYSTICAL VIEW on the quick back-up with Pike and blinkers on. QUEEN BROWN goes well and only two starts back was a $2.60 Belgravia Stakes favourite.
Selections: 4. Chantorque (top tip), 1. Charleton Eddie, 5. Mystical View, 3. Queen Brown
Keeping it simple with DOM TO SHOOT. Victim of circumstances when a beaten $2.50 fave in the Fairetha Stakes, and while the mediocre tempo and race-shape conspired against him he still ran the fastest last 200m of the day. Can’t draw a gate, but if Paul Harvey can land midfield with cover it could be race over. Continue to pump up FIRST LAW and he hasn’t done a lot wrong, going down narrowly after landing outside leader in the Fairetha. Love the blinkers going on and he goes close. Champion Fillies Stakes winner WATCH ME DANCE is on the quick back up but is super-tough and her best stacks up strongly against the fellas. Gate one could be pivotal also. GEMMA’S SON ran his heart out against the stars in the WFA Lee Steere and has to be respected, while futures punters will be desperate for emergency WESTERN EMPIRE to gain a start, because if he does he can win.
Selections: 2. Dom To Shoot (top tip), 9. First Law, 11. Watch Me Dance, 1. Gemma’s Son
Pretty keen on TYCOON STORM. Hasn’t raced for 42 days, but has clearly been set for this distaff feature series and confident she can take it up to likely fave FLOWER OF WAR. Doesn’t really have a heap of 1200m form, but her two wins prior to a freshen rated highly and smacked of a mare destined for black type. Low draw allows her to stalk the leading division. Flower of War is the obvious, back to mares grade after taking on some of WA’s best sprinters. Looks a weights special under SWP conditions. Loved the Lark Hill 16/11 trial from RATION ALY, while SPECIAL CHOICE ticks boxes and will be well fancied.
Selections: 8. Tycoon Storm, 1. Flower Of War, 9. Ration Aly, 7. Special Choice
Simply have to see it through with RED CAN MAN. Have been spruiking his Railway Stakes credentials for a while now and his Asian Beau Stakes and Lee Steere Stakes lead-up results suggest he’s right on target to peak on grand final day. Good weight swings against some dangers and his tactical speed will see him get every chance up on top of the speed. Will take something significant to run him down. The two most capable of doing so are star mares INSPIRATIONAL GIRL and KAY CEE. Race fave Inspirational Girl ticks all the boxes, especially with Pike back in WA, and Kay Cee returned to her brilliant best in the Lee Steere Stakes. TOO CLOSE THE SUN burst into calculations with last week’s devastating Ascot Gold Cup display, while CUP NIGHT is coming off a setback but does have the talent to challenge.
Selections: 8. Red Can Man (value bet), 11. Inspirational Girl, 4. Kay Cee, 14. Too Close The Sun
There’s a few angles to play in the “get out”, but it could be a nice set-up for FESTIVAL MISS. She caught the ey resuming in a hot race last month, running into traffic in the straight and going to the line with plenty in the tank. Down to 53kg with Pike back on, she’ll give this a shake. FLOW is flying and was stiff to run into a fire-breathing Truly Great last week. Was beaten a short neck in this race last year. Happy to forgive LAVERROD after his Lee Steere failure. Ridden for cover, he can rebound. The pads are off PYM’S ROYALE and he looked sharp in his mid-prep Belmont 9/11 trial win.
Selections: 12. Festival Miss (top tip), 2. Flow, 9. Laverrod, 8. Pym’s Royale
Race 4: Chantorque
Race 6: Dom To Shoot
Race 7: Ration Aly
Race 8: Red Can Man each-way
Race 9: Laverrod, saving on Flow
Junior’s Tip: Kay Cee (5.50)
Jack’s Tip: Inspirational Girl (3.60)
JUNIPAL (4) Scored a victory last start at Sandown and backs up quickly today. Tracking very well this preparation. Trifectas chance. AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (10) Game effort to win last run at Flemington. Solid each way claims. HARLEM (2) Put in a competitive run when placing 2nd two runs back at Caulfield but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Marginal chance. KINGS WILL DREAM (3) Flew home into 3rd last time at Moonee Valley but bit of extra work to do with more weight today. Gets back and needs luck. Minor claims.
Race 8: Junipal
Race 8: Affair to Remember
3. Kings Will Dream, 10. Affair to Remember, 11. Odeon, 2. Harlem
SO SI BON nailed POWER SCHEME in the Eclipse last week with PACODALI a bit unlucky. To 2000m it might be advantage Pacodali out of them? HARLEM was close up in a Group 1 Turnbull three runs back beating home KINGS WILL DREAM but the latter has a 3kg swing here. JUNIPAL won Sandown Stakes in good time on dry. He’s been to 2000m once and ran well that day with a big weight. KIWIA has won this the past two years, forget last run. AFFAIR TO REMEMBER stormed home to win Matriarch beating PARADEE with Toffee Tongue third. That girl beat all bar Verry Elleegant in the aforementioned Turnbull.
Selections: 10. Affair To Remember, 20. Paradee, 4. Junipal, 2. Harlem
Race 4 # 2 Prince Amongst Men – VALUE BET
5. Al Galayel, 14. Game Keeper, 11. Odeon, 10. Affair to Remember
10. Affair to Remember, 11. Odeon, 4. Junipal, 20. Paradee
10. Affair to Remember, 4. Junipal, 5. Al Galayel, 20. Paradee
Race 3: 3. Right You Are – BEST BET
Race 8: 10. Affair To Remember
Race 10: 7. Yao Dash
Race 7: Dawn Passage (4.80)
DAWN PASSAGE (7) Third up today. Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd last time at Rosehill and will find this grade easier. Keep in mind. PURPLE SECTOR (11) Fought on well to win last run at Flemington. No shock to see a win. ROCK (4) Had a comfortable win three runs back at Newcastle but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Can go through the gears. Can make a claim. CASCADIAN (3) Kept finding the line when 2nd last run at Flemington but will have to carry extra weight today. Possesses good finishing speed. Looks a good chance of finishing in the money.
Race 7: Dawn Passage, saving on Bottega
Terrific race. So many chances! I have 13 leading with (maybe??) 15 crossing up close. 10 can either lead or box-seat and MISTER SEA WOLF can set up one out/one back just as he did when winning this race last year (carrying 59kg). He approaches it through that post-Everest sprint again. Wary of him then but I’ve picked out DAWN PASSAGE as he comes to it 3rd-up and drawn to track the leaders and have last say. Wants that conservative run at his first try at 1600m. ASIAGO has never had a 7 day turnaround in her career but she has Kembla form and was solid last week (ridden well by O’Hara who stays on). CASCADIAN through the G1 but can he crack it for a win?
Race 7: Dawn Passage
Jack’s Tip: Dawn Passage (4.60)
Junior’s Tip: Cascadian (11.00, 3.50)
Race 2: 5. Activation
Race 4: 7. Destination
Race 7: 4. Rock