Friday morning brought the announcement that Melbourne Victory had sacked coach Mehmet Durakovic, installing assisting coach Kevin Muscat as temporary manager. The move was not unexpected as the Victory have lost their last three matches, following on from a disappointing start to the season. Durakovic’s predecessor Ernie Merrick will be entitled to have a chuckle at his old club’s plight. Merrick was sacked at the end of last season despite guiding Melbourne to two premierships and regular finals appearances in his six seasons in charge.

CHEEKY WEEK 14 A-LEAGUE MULTI

Andy’s Bet: Melbourne Victory and Wellington to win and Gold Coast v Adelaide over 2.5 goals @ 6.20 (TAB Sportsbet)

SATURDAY ( JAN 7 )

Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar (AEDT 1730)

John Kosmina is Adelaide’s miracle man, arriving to coach the Reds after they had gone 5 games without winning, Kosmina has breathed new life into Adelaide’s season, guiding his team to a draw in Sydney before overseeing back to back victories during the past week. United’s away day success over the Melbourne Heart on Super Wednesday was particularly impressive as it proved they can beat an in-form opponent, and key men Sergio van Dijk and Dario Vidosic got on the scoresheet. With van Dijk and Vidosic in form Adelaide are capable of beating anyone, including this week’s opponent, defending champions Brisbane. The Roar scrapped to a 3-3 draw in a highly offensive game in Perth during the week, but will find less space in attack in this match. Brisbane coach Ange Postecoglou was scathing of his team’s efforts in Perth and it will be interesting to see how the players respond to such public criticism. Personally, I don’t see the point in publicly criticising your players in the media and think it would be much more effective to make those points behind closed doors. I reckon Adelaide will spring a surprise and will be on them to win as well as both teams to score.

Andy’s Bet: Adelaide to win @ 3.25 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: Both teams to score @ 1.75 (TAB Sportsbet)

Melbourne Victory v Newcastle Jets (AEDT 1945)

The Victory endured a horror festive season, losing all three games they played over the Christmas and New Year period. Admittedly all three games were away from home and against each of the top three teams on the ladder, but Melbourne’s season will soon start slipping away unless their players dig in and start producing results. Coach Mehmet Durakovic has been the first casualty of a stuttering campaign, sacked on the Friday before this match. Former fan favourite Kevin Muscat takes temporary charge of the Navy Blues and can put things right as early as this Saturday. The Victory are 8th on the ladder with 15 points, two less than their 6th placed visitors, so, depending on the result of the afternoon’s earlier game in Adelaide, Melbourne could climb back into the top 6 with a win. Newcastle have lost 5 of their 6 away games, drawing the other, making a bet on the home side a must for this one. Archie Thompson has scored in his last 2 games at AAMI Park and is nice odds to find the net again on Saturday.

Andy’s Bet: Melbourne to win @ 1.75 (TAB Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: Archie Thompson to score anytime @ 2.85 (Centrebet)

SUNDAY ( JAN 8 )

Wellington Phoenix v Perth Glory (AEDT 1500)

Wellington have been, well, predictably predictable during their past 8 matches, winning every time they have played in New Zealand and losing every time they have crossed the Tasman to play on Australian soil. That sequence included a 1-0 win over Perth in Wellington as recently as the 10th December. The Glory have won just 1 of their past 11 matches and that was a home win over the bottom of the ladder Gold Coast. Perth were slightly more impressive in a 3-3 draw with Brisbane on Super Wednesday, a brace of goals from Mile Sterjovski providing the purple men with a much-needed attacking threat. The Phoenix really should win, and win well.

Andy’s Bet: Wellington to win @ 1.80 (TAB Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: Wellington to win by 2 or more goals @ 3.05 (TAB Sportsbet)

Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners (AEDT 1600)

Sydney have slipped to fifth on the ladder, winning only once from their most recent five matches, and in-turn, failing to consolidate on a very good start to the season. Rediscovering that winning feeling this Sunday will be tough, with the in-form Central Coast making the short journey to the state capital. The top of the table Mariners are now 11 games unbeaten and have won each of their last five matches on their travels. Following the recent sackings of Adelaide coach Rini Coolen and Melbourne boss Mehmet Durakovic, Sydney’s Vitezslav Lavicka will be next manager to feel the heat. I’m backing the Central Coast to continue their amazing away form and Lavicka to be wriggling uncomfortably in his chair come full time.

Andy’s Bet: Central Coast to win @ 2.37 (Centrebet)

Gold Coast United v Melbourne Heart (AEDT 1830)

I’ll be very excited to tune into this Sunday twilight match as my favourite A-League player will resume his place after missing the Super Wednesday action. The ‘Godfather of Goals’, James Brown, the young Olyroo, should be back in the United starting line-up, giving the Gold Coast more attacking threat. His inclusion is necessary as the Melbourne Heart are coming to the glitter strip, hoping to put their midweek defeat to Adelaide behind them and consolidate a spot in the top 3. The Heart won this contest in November and are playing better now that they were back then, so I’m tipping them to edge a high scoring encounter.

Andy’s Bet: Melbourne Heart to win @ 2.80 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 3.15 (TAB Sportsbet)

Sportingbet is offering a great workaround for this. Place a minimum $10 bet on the 2011 Tour de France Race Winner market before the 1st stage and if your selected rider fails to finish the tour, Sportingbet will refund your stake in the form of a bonus bet up to $100. Only first your bet struck in the 2011 Tour de France Race Winner market will be eligible.

This promotion adds a lot of value to the race favourite Alberto Contador, who has been allowed to defend his title despite doping allegations. He enters the Tour in great form, having won the Vuelta a Murcia, Volta a Catalunya and Giro d’Italia already this year.

Below are the latest winner market odds.

Below is the top ten classifications table for the Yellow Jersey in 2010.

The Englishman outpaced the likes of Valentino Rossi and Monster Yamaha Tech 3 team-mate Colin Edwards as he set a blistering time in the 1.36’s to put his best testing lap ahead of Dani Pedrosa’s quickest lap in Sunday’s race, which he went on to win.

The 4^th place finish, with only Marco Simoncelli, Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner quicker than him, left the youngster brimming with confidence, and he insisted that his pace in testing bodes well for the future.

“I honestly didn’t expect to break into the 36s but I felt comfortable and even with 25-laps on the same set of tyres I was doing low to mid-37s,” he said.

“I know everyone goes faster in a test but my time today was faster than Dani Pedrosa’s best lap in the race and he won, so my pace bodes well for the future.” He added.

After securing his best ever MotoGP finish in Portugal, Crutchlow revealed that he was unable to use the updates he tested on Monday in the race because of the unpredictable weather that affected the race weekend.

“Losing so much track time because of the weather at the weekend meant I couldn’t risk taking a gamble on making too many changes for the race,” he commented.

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Men’s Hockey Final

Australia qualified for the final after defeating New Zealand 6-2, while India qualified after beating England 5-4 in a penalty shoot-out. While Australia is the stronger team on paper, they will be up against a vociferous crowd. The Indian hockey team has captured the hearts of the country during the tournament, and Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh is expected to attend the final. India had to rally from two goals down to level England 3-3 to force extra time and then penalties. This come from behind victory will certainly have boosted their self-belief, which will make things difficult for Australia this afternoon.

Having said that, Australia are still the clear favourites with bookmakers. This is a result of Australia beating India 5-2 in a pool match earlier in the tournament. Below are some selected odds (subject to change).

Women’s Netball Final

The Netball final features the two teams that the neutrals were both hoping for and expecting: Australia vs New Zealand. New Zealand are the defending Commonwealth Games champions, while Australia are the number one ranked side in the world. Australia go into this fixture as the favourites, although I expect a tight encounter. New Zealand look to be in good form this tournament. The previous 2010 results between Australia and New Zealand are as follows:

Selected betting odds are provided below (subject to change):

NFL

The 2010/11 NFL season kicks off this weekend. There are no Saturday games, presumably because it’s a 9/11 anniversary. I watch the occasional NFL and College game, but I tend to rely on other people’s opinions when placing bets. A good source of information is the American website FanIQ. You can view both the FanIQ prediction, which is based on the aggregate opinion of the website’s members, and the Vegas & Expert’s opinion for each fixture. If you sign up for membership, which is free, you can also access in depth previews of each game.

If you’re a serious sports better, you may be interested in the paid service AccuScore. AccuScore in an American service that provides pre-game statistical analysis for NFL, MLB, NBA, College Football and College Basketball. The statistics are based on simulated projections and adviser picks. Daily line reports with historical pick records are available, along with live betting predictions and much more. I haven’t used this service myself, but I would love to get feedback from someone who has.

NRL Finals

Bookmakers have even odds on Wests Tigers v Sydney Roosters. The Titans (1.60) are marginal favourites against the Warriors (2.38), as are the Panthers (1.57) who will be playing the Raiders (2.45). The Dragons (1.16) start as heavy favourites against the Sea Eagles (5.50), with a line bet of -16.5 points.

AFL Finals

Geelong v Freemantle
Geelong (1.12) are the heavy favourites, with Freemantle (6.80) given a 39.5 point head start for the line bet.

Western Bulldogs v Sydney
This game is expected to be much tighter, with Sydney (1.82) the marginal favourites over the Bulldogs (2.02).

Bledisloe Cup – Australia v All Blacks

The Tri Nations game kicks off at 8:00 PM this Saturday at ANZ Stadium in Sydney. New Zealand are the favourites for this fixture, with odds of 1.45 and a line bet of -6.0. It will be interesting to see how fresh Australia (2.75) look after making the trip back from South Africa.

Formula 1

The Italian Grand Prix is this weekend, hot on the heels of the fantastic Belgian Grand Prix a fortnight ago. I’m surprised to see that Hamilton (2.62) is given much shorter odds than his teammate Button (7.50) to win. Despite the fact that Webber (6.50) has consistently outperformed his teammate Vettel (5.50) on race day, he is still longer odds to win the race. Alonso (5.00) is the second favourite for a win, which is interesting, given his poor qualifying performance in Belgium. This season has been fantastic so far. With Channel One showing most races live in Australia, there’s never been a better time to get into F1.

US Open Tennis

The US Open concludes this weekend, with everyone in New York hoping for a Federer vs. Nadal final. I’ve heard that Federer has never lost a night match at the US Open, and he looks to be in fantastic form thus far. Unfortunately, the reigning men’s champion Del Potro couldn’t participate, along with Serena Williams. In the women’s event, everyone is wondering if Wozniacki can win her first Grand Slam title.

European Football

After a week off for international Euro qualifiers, the likes of the English Premier League are back in action this weekend. If you’re ever looking for Premier League score predictions, check out Lawro’s predictions on the BBC website. He got six out of ten correct last round, with two perfect scores.

If you struggle to find good value on top division games, I highly recommend you start looking into lower division football. I speak from experience, because statistically, the sport I have performed the best at is the English Championship, which is one division below the Premier League.

Basketball – 2010 FIBA World Championship

We’re at the semi finals stage, and the United States, despite not fielding a first string team, are the hot favourites for the title. Turkey, who are the host nation, must be delighted to have made the semi-finals. You can view the brackets at the official website.

Domestic Rugby Union

The ITM Cup in New Zealand enters Week 7, while the Currie Cup in South Africa enters Week 8.

Phew! That’s most of it, anyway. I’ve never felt so spoiled for choice. Enjoy your weekend!

For those who haven’t already heard, the News of the World met up with a match fixer posing as representatives of a Far East Gambling cartel. After paying the fixer £150,000, they were informed of three intentional no balls to be bowled in the Test against England on Thursday and Friday at Lord’s. The fixer claimed to have seven Pakistani cricketers in his pocket who were accepting payments from bookies and betting syndicates.

Sure enough, the no balls were delivered exactly as promised. The photo below illustrates one of the no balls that were bowled by Amir. He certainly made sure the Umpire would ping him for it!

To make matters worse, the match fixer claimed that the SCG test in January was also rigged. Pakistan lost their last nine wickets for 89 runs to give Australia a sensational victory. This leads one to assume that most of Pakistan’s recent fixtures have involved rigging on some level or another.

With the Pakistani cricketers continuing to play on low salaries (I’ve heard figures of $35,000 per year for some players), you can imagine they will always be tempted to accept funds to deliver on certain actions, especially when such actions involve only one player. Short of banning Pakistani cricket altogether, perhaps bookmakers should be forced to cease accepting wagers on any market concerning the Pakistani team. To send a message to fellow players, I hope that those who are found to have cheated are hit with lengthy bans.

Sources:

• News of the World – Match-fixer pockets £150k as he rigs England Test at Lord’s
• Revealed: Sydney Test linked to betting scandal

Winner

Chelsea is this year’s favourite, followed by Manchester United. Most bookmakers have Manchester City as having a better chance of winning than Arsenal, although Arsenal has shorter odds of the two at Betfair.

Below are the winner odds at the time of writing. The best available odds for each outcome are highlighted in bold (after accounting for Betfair fees).

	Chelsea	Man Utd	Arsenal	Man City	Liverpool	Tottenham
bet365	2.62	3.25	6.50	6.50	13.00	34.00
Betfair	2.92	3.40	7.00	8.20	15.50	38.00
Canbet	2.75	3.20	6.00	7.00	12.00	34.00
Centrebet	2.35	3.00	7.00	6.00	12.00	34.00
Sportsbet	2.70	3.40	7.00	6.00	13.00	34.00
Sportingbet	2.50	3.50	7.50	5.50	13.00	34.00
William Hill	2.62	3.40	7.00	5.50	15.00	26.00
Luxbet	2.65	3.25	6.00	5.50	14.00	36.00
Sports Alive	2.55	3.25	7.00	5.25	14.00	26.00
IASBet	2.70	3.40	7.00	6.00	13.00	34.00
TAB Sportsbet	2.50	3.25	7.00	6.00	10.00	26.00

Month End Top for August

Betfair offers a market for the top team at the end of August. Due to the drop in predictability over a shorter period of time, the likes of Tottenham (14.00), Manchester City (14.00), Aston Villa (21.00) and Liverpool (17.00) provide decent value. I haven’t done so myself, but it would be worth looking at the fixtures list over this period.

Relegation

Blackpool is the favourite to be relegated. One bookmaker offers odds of 1.01 for Blackpool to end in the bottom ten. This is a ridiculous bet because the wager won’t settle until May next year. A 1% return from August to May is far less than you could get risk-free in an online savings account in Australia. Heck, if I was a bookmaker I would happily offer 1.01 odds on Blackpool to still be located in England by May next year. You should always consider the time value of money when making betting decisions on events that don’t settle for a considerable amount of time.