At the end of August, leading bookmakers called on the federal government to rewrite laws concerning live sports betting on the Internet. Betfair CEO, Andrew Twaits, said “with vastly improved technology, why is there a distinction between betting on the phone and the internet?” “It makes a mockery of the law.”

Sportsbet CEO, Matt Tripp, said the Productivity Commission’s draft recommendation last year did not have a problem with live online betting. He argues, “it just appears to be an anomaly in the Act and an oversight.”

Personally, I have never bothered to bet live over the phone, because by the time you’ve made a decision and get through to the bookmaker, the odds and events have changed.

From a punter’s perspective, the current ban isn’t a huge deal, because you can simply sign up with an international agency like bet365 and bet live online with them. The fact that we can do this underlines how flawed the current legislation is.

Live online betting is huge in Europe. According to Betfair, live betting accounts for 90% of wagers on cricket, tennis and soccer. Hence it’s no surprise that the Australian bookmakers are again making noise about the issue. It is, however, interesting that bookmakers are willing to broach the issue in the midst of the NRL and cricket betting scandals. There’s negative sentiment in the air regarding sports betting in Australia, so I think it’s a bold move to request greater freedoms in the midst of this bad publicity.

Sources:
- The Australian – Betting operators call for law change
- The Age – Live betting is on the cards

Pinnacle Sports is licensed by the Government of the Netherlands Antilles, on the island of Curacao. With customers from over 100 countries, it is regarded as a truly international bookmaker. I hadn’t reviewed Pinnacle Sports before now, because I had wrongly presumed that it didn’t support Australian dollar accounts. Not only does it accept Australian dollars, but it also accepts POLi as a deposit method for Australian bank accounts. This enables you to avoid the hassle of sending them signed copies of your credit card after making a deposit.

The main feature of Pinnacle Sports, which separates it from its competitors, is its reduced margin-pricing model. Pinnacle Sports claims to offer 60% better odds than other bookmakers. For example, Pinnacle Sports offers between 1.95 and 1.96 handicap odds, while most Australian bookmakers offer 1.91 handicap odds. Its profit is derived from lower margins but a far higher turnover.

• New member offers – Pinnacle Sports takes the unique strategy of not offering any new player bonuses. They claim to be the first bookmaker to introduce a reduced margin-pricing model, guaranteeing the best value. According to their website, “we think you will find that the long-term savings that our odds provide, will represent far better value than any bonus, or other sign-up incentive that can be offered by any competitor.”
• Deposit options – Bank Wire Transfer, Cashier’s Cheque, ClickandBuy, Credit Card, Delta Debit Cards, EntroPay, InstaDebit transfer, Moneta, Moneybookers, Neteller, POLi, Przelewy24, Sofortüberweisung, Visa Electron, WebMoney
• Withdrawal options – Bank Wire Transfer, ClickandBuy, Credit Card, Delta Debit Cards, EntroPay, InstaDebit, Moneybookers, Neteller, Visa Electron, WebMoney
• Transaction fees – members receive one free withdrawal per calendar month. All additional withdrawals during the calendar month, for any amount using any withdrawal method, incur a fee.
• Currencies supported – AUD, CAD, CZK, DKK, EUR, GBP, HKD, JPY, MYR, NOK, NZD, PLN, RMB, SEK, SGD, THB, TWD, USD
• Minimum bet – $1 USD or the equivalent in your local currency
• Turnover requirements – none that I’m aware of
• Betting Markets / Options – the sports betting selection is average for the industry. The likes of bet365, Betfair and William Hill offer a better selection, but I’ve seen far worse. The football (soccer) selection is comprehensive, which is to be expected. The NRL and AFL betting is very basic, even in the midst of the AFL and NRL Finals. If Australian sports are your thing, I recommend an Australian bookmaker instead. Pinnacle Sports offers poker and casino games in addition to its sports betting services.
• Live betting – Live ‘in-play’ betting during popular fixtures is available
• Credit facilities – Not that I’m aware of
• Restricted countries – Pinnacle Sports is not available to residents of the United States
• Upsides
  • The array of deposit and withdrawal options is fantastic. POLi is available for Australian users
  • The range of accepted currencies is as good as you’ll ever see
  • The margins genuinely are narrower than its competitors. Most Australian bookmakers offer 1.91 handicap odds, while Pinnacle Sports offers between 1.95 and 1.96 handicap odds.
  • Poker and casino games are offered on top of the sports betting service
  • The help section is very good
  • As far as I’m aware, there aren’t any turnover requirements before withdrawing funds
  • According to its website, “Pinnacle Sports offers the highest maximum limits for Internet betting in the industry.” One interesting feature is, when you move your cursor over a betting option, the website displays the maximum bet they will accept on that outcome. This saves you the hassle of inputting a wager only to be turned down when you try to submit it.
• Downsides
  • The betting selection for Australian sports is limited
  • The minimum deposit of $30 AUD is higher than at most other bookmakers
  • The sports betting interface is very basic, although it is intuitive. The website looks like it hasn’t been renovated in ten years.
• Bottom line – Pinnacle Sports has gone to great lengths to distinguish itself as having narrower margins than its competitors. Based on my own experience, I have found this claim to be valid. For this reason alone, this is a fantastic service. Pinnacle Sports is truly an international bookmaker. Its wide selection of account currencies and deposit methods is a huge draw card for its customers from over 100 countries. The service is backed by a large company, and many punters will appreciate the access to poker and casino games on top of the sports betting lineup. One of the key drawbacks for Pinnacle Sports is its weak sporting selection for Australian punters. If you’re into soccer and American sports, however, this won’t be an issue. Another feature that lets Pinnacle Sports down is its interface. While it certainly does the job, the website looks like its design hasn’t been updated in years. Overall, for the fact that its odds genuinely are better than its competitors, I recommend adding Pinnacle Sports to your list of bookmaker accounts.

The “$2 LuxLine” is exclusive to the Finals. Due to the generosity of the offer, Luxbet limits bets to a maximum $250. The 2.00 odds apply to bets placed in the hour before each match.

If you’re new to sports betting, lines bets are designed to have a 50% chance of winning. They are created by adding a pre-determined number of points to the underdog’s final score (which corresponds to subtracting points from the favourite’s score). As an example, for the Friday fixture between Brisbane and Canberra, the head to head odds are:

     Brisbane: 2.50
     Canberra: 1.55

This means the bookmaker believes there’s a higher chance of Canberra winning. The corresponding lines bets are:

     Brisbane +5.5: 1.91
     Canberra -5.5: 1.91

At the end of the game Luxbet adds 5.5 to Brisbane’s score and then compares it to Canberra’s score. So if the final score is 18 – 23, the Brisbane bet would win because the line bet final score would be 23.5 – 23. Alternatively, if Brisbane loses by 6 or more, then the Canberra bet wins.

With a 50% probability of winning, these line bets usually have odds between 1.90 and 1.95, which is how the bookmaker makes its money. For example, suppose $10,000 of bets were placed on Brisbane, and $10,000 on Canberra. If the Brisbane bet won and the odds were 1.91, the bookmaker would pay $9,100 in profits to the winners, and keep the $10,000 from the losers. This nets the bookmaker $900 in profit.

Because of these odds, you should only bet on an outcome if you believe its probability of occurrence is 1/1.91 = 52.36%, otherwise your expected return will be less than your bet amount.

With the Luxbet 2.00 odds promotion, the game is actually fair! There’s no bookmaker margin, so you have a 50% chance of doubling your money.

I’ve personally never seen a promotion like this before, so if you’re into line betting, and you follow the NRL and/or AFL, then this is a great opportunity to make some money. Even if you don’t know anything about either sport, with the 2.00 odds, if you chose blindly, you would expect to break even.

If you don’t have an account with Luxbet, you can pick up a $100 Bonus Bet when you make a first deposit. To take up this offer, enter the promo code FREEBET1 at the deposit screen.

Good luck, and enjoy the finals!

For those who haven’t already heard, the News of the World met up with a match fixer posing as representatives of a Far East Gambling cartel. After paying the fixer £150,000, they were informed of three intentional no balls to be bowled in the Test against England on Thursday and Friday at Lord’s. The fixer claimed to have seven Pakistani cricketers in his pocket who were accepting payments from bookies and betting syndicates.

Sure enough, the no balls were delivered exactly as promised. The photo below illustrates one of the no balls that were bowled by Amir. He certainly made sure the Umpire would ping him for it!

To make matters worse, the match fixer claimed that the SCG test in January was also rigged. Pakistan lost their last nine wickets for 89 runs to give Australia a sensational victory. This leads one to assume that most of Pakistan’s recent fixtures have involved rigging on some level or another.

With the Pakistani cricketers continuing to play on low salaries (I’ve heard figures of $35,000 per year for some players), you can imagine they will always be tempted to accept funds to deliver on certain actions, especially when such actions involve only one player. Short of banning Pakistani cricket altogether, perhaps bookmakers should be forced to cease accepting wagers on any market concerning the Pakistani team. To send a message to fellow players, I hope that those who are found to have cheated are hit with lengthy bans.

Sources:

• News of the World – Match-fixer pockets £150k as he rigs England Test at Lord’s
• Revealed: Sydney Test linked to betting scandal

Virtually every bookmaker closed betting on the first scoring play after a surge in bets on a penalty goal for the Cowboys. This is typically not a popular bet. It is also a high odds bet, with odds typically around 12.00 to 13.00 for a home team penalty goal.

For the Cowboys vs. Bulldogs fixture the TAB Sportsbet odds plunged from 13.00 to 7.00 after bets started pouring in on Thursday. Sports Alive closed its market after a punter tried to wager $1000 at 8.00 odds. The most drastic odds drop may have occurred at Centrebet, where they fell from 13.00 to 3.00.

Ironically, the bet lost! This is despite the fact that the Cowboys were awarded an absolute sitter of a penalty right in front of the posts only nine metres out. The Cowboys opted instead for a quick tap and scored out wide to open the scoring. I’m sure the players who committed the penalty will be under investigation.

I would be interested to hear what happened at Betfair, where you can bet both for and against each outcome. I would love to lay a bet against a home team penalty goal at odds of 3.00!

This is the first case I’ve seen where the dubious betting concerned a losing bet. With the Briggs boxing scandal and the Davydenko match the heavily backed outcome won. I’m sure the fact that the Cowboys were awarded an easy penalty opportunity will be one of the motivations for the enquiry.

Source:
- SMH – NRL investigates ‘inordinate’ betting plunge on penalty goal market

Below are some of the latest odds. Please note that these odds could change quickly and radically. These odds are accurate as of 5:17 PM on August 20th. Also, as a warning, Sportsbet currently offers odds on who will be PM at the 2013 Federal Election, which some punters may misinterpret as the winner of the 2010 election. These bets won’t pay out for years!

Note that an arbitrage opportunity exists! Provided the odds don’t move, you can profit by betting against a hung parliament with Centrebet and for a hung parliament with Sportingbet. Remember, an arbitrage opportunity exists whenever the reciprocals of the odds sum to less than one. In this case 1/3.00 + 1/1.64 = 0.943. Use the arbitrage calculator to calculate your strategy. Note that you are exposed to some risk, because a bookmaker may reject your bet or change the odds after you have placed a bet with the other agency. Update: Sportingbet has shortened its odds, but the arbitrage opportunity still exists, so you better be quick!

Australian Federal Election – Winner

	Labor Party	Coalition
Sportsbet	1.45	2.75 (any other party)
Sportingbet	1.48	2.60
Centrebet	1.48	2.62
Luxbet	1.50	2.55
Sports Alive	1.48	2.60
IASbet	1.45	2.75 (any other party)

Hung Parliament

	Yes	No
Sportsbet	2.90	1.37
Sportingbet	3.00	1.35
Centrebet	2.15	1.64
Luxbet	N/A	N/A
Sports Alive	N/A	N/A
IASbet	N/A	N/A

BetRedKings is the sports betting site for the company RedKings, which is licensed in Gibraltar. RedKings offers poker and casino games on top of its sports betting service. Football (soccer) fixtures make up the overwhelming majority of the bookmaker’s offerings, with virtually every professional league catered for. At the time of this review, tennis, American football, fighting, basketball and baseball were the other most catered for markets.

• New member offers – BetRedKings is currently offering a 100% first deposit bonus up to $100. Note that BetRedKings imposes heavy turnover requirements before you can withdraw these funds.
• Deposit options – credit card, Moneybookers, Neteller, WebMoney, Click2Pay, ClickandBuy, ukash, Western Union
• Withdrawal options – credit card, Moneybookers, Netellter, WebMoney, Click2Pay, ClickandBuy, direct bank transfer
• Transaction fees – none
• Currencies supported – USD, EUR
• Minimum bet – no minimum!
• Turnover requirements – 1x for deposits at 2.00+ odds, 5x for bonus funds at 2.00+ odds.
• Betting Markets / Options – BetRedKings offers odds on a relatively narrow range of sports, but these sports are well catered for. Football is the largest market, while tennis, basketball and baseball are also well covered. Australian fans of NRL and AFL are better off using an Australian bookmaker.
• Live betting – Live ‘in-play’ betting during popular fixtures is available
• Credit facilities – Not that I’m aware of
• Restricted countries – RedKings does not accept real money players from Cyprus, Israel, Turkey, France or the United States.
• Upsides
  • The user interface is the highlight of BetRedKings. It appears to be heavily Ajax driven, which means you can interact and place wagers without reloading the page. This is great when you are trying to make bets quickly. The displayed odds update live, and are highlighted when they change.
  • The simple navigation menu makes finding betting markets quick and easy
  • There is no minimum bet level
  • Users can easily transfer funds over to the Poker sister-site if you get bored with sports betting
• Downsides
  • The deposit procedure is a little disconcerting. When using a credit card, you are redirected to payments.rk-operation.com which, it turns out, is the website of the owning company. After making my first deposit the left panel displayed “Betting Balance: $0.00″. Fortunately, the rest of the site acknowledged my deposit and I was able to bet immediately.
  • The sports betting service is tailored to a few select sporting markets. The company’s major focus appears to be its Poker and Casino sites.
• Bottom line – BetRedKings is a solid service, driven by a fantastic website interface. The betting selection is a little limited, although football fans are very well catered for. The initial bonus deposit is generous, although the turnover requirements for the bonus funds are harsh. I recommend this service to football fans as well as experienced punters who wish to take advantage of the current bonus offer. This service should also appeal to small-time punters who will appreciate the no minimum bet restrictions.

Winner

Chelsea is this year’s favourite, followed by Manchester United. Most bookmakers have Manchester City as having a better chance of winning than Arsenal, although Arsenal has shorter odds of the two at Betfair.

Below are the winner odds at the time of writing. The best available odds for each outcome are highlighted in bold (after accounting for Betfair fees).

	Chelsea	Man Utd	Arsenal	Man City	Liverpool	Tottenham
bet365	2.62	3.25	6.50	6.50	13.00	34.00
Betfair	2.92	3.40	7.00	8.20	15.50	38.00
Canbet	2.75	3.20	6.00	7.00	12.00	34.00
Centrebet	2.35	3.00	7.00	6.00	12.00	34.00
Sportsbet	2.70	3.40	7.00	6.00	13.00	34.00
Sportingbet	2.50	3.50	7.50	5.50	13.00	34.00
William Hill	2.62	3.40	7.00	5.50	15.00	26.00
Luxbet	2.65	3.25	6.00	5.50	14.00	36.00
Sports Alive	2.55	3.25	7.00	5.25	14.00	26.00
IASBet	2.70	3.40	7.00	6.00	13.00	34.00
TAB Sportsbet	2.50	3.25	7.00	6.00	10.00	26.00

Month End Top for August

Betfair offers a market for the top team at the end of August. Due to the drop in predictability over a shorter period of time, the likes of Tottenham (14.00), Manchester City (14.00), Aston Villa (21.00) and Liverpool (17.00) provide decent value. I haven’t done so myself, but it would be worth looking at the fixtures list over this period.

Relegation

Blackpool is the favourite to be relegated. One bookmaker offers odds of 1.01 for Blackpool to end in the bottom ten. This is a ridiculous bet because the wager won’t settle until May next year. A 1% return from August to May is far less than you could get risk-free in an online savings account in Australia. Heck, if I was a bookmaker I would happily offer 1.01 odds on Blackpool to still be located in England by May next year. You should always consider the time value of money when making betting decisions on events that don’t settle for a considerable amount of time.

William Hill claims to be UK’s top online bookmaker. The company has around 2,300 betting shops and employs over 16,600 people. William Hill offers an extensive array of betting options including sports, poker, games, casino, skill, bingo and lotteries. The sports betting selection for football fixtures is astounding. For example there are typically 101 markets available for English Championship fixtures (the division below the Premier League). Another strength of William Hill from an Australian perspective is that it supports Australian dollar accounts.

• New member offers – New members can receive a £/€25 free bet. Simply open an account using the promo code F25. Note that the free bet must be wagered on the same day that the first qualifying bet has settled.
• Deposit options – credit card, UK debit card, bank wire, cheque, Quick Cash, Neteller, postal orders, Paypal (not available for AUD accounts), Moneybookers, Click2Pay, ClickandBuy, Paysafecard
• Withdrawal options – credit card, UK debit card, bank wire, cheque, Quick Cash, Neteller, Paypal, Moneybookers, Click2Pay, ClickandBuy
• Transaction fees – Fees apply for bank wire withdrawals. Paypal fees apply for Paypal withdrawals.
• Currencies supported – AUD, CAD, CHF, DKK, GBP, HKD, JPY, SEK, SGD, USD, EUR
• Minimum bet – 3p for singles and 1p for multiple bets
• Turnover requirements – none that I’m aware of
• Betting Markets / Options – A staggering range of sporting markets is offered. William Hill also offers poker, casino, virtual sports, skill games, bingo and lotteries. The casino games are actually dealt live in real time by the company’s croupiers.
  
• Live betting – Live ‘in-play’ betting during popular fixtures is available
• Credit facilities – Not that I’m aware of
• Restricted countries – William Hill is not available to residents of Bulgaria, Cuba, France, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Iran, Israel, Italy, Martinique, Myanmar (Burma), North Korea, Philippines, Réunion, Sudan, Syria, Turkey, and the United States
• Upsides
  • Fantastic array of deposit and withdrawal options
  • Incredibly low minimum bet levels
  • Well suited to big-time punters, with a large £250,000 limit on daily deposits
  • Sports statistics are provided within the site for many markets
  • ‘My Favourites’ is an excellent feature for keeping track of matches you wish to follow. It comes in especially handy on weekends when there are many simultaneous sporting events.
  • To help punters navigate their way around the extensive array of betting options, William Hill offers a search feature to quickly find betting options.
• Downsides
  • New members must wager their free bet on the same day that the first qualifying bet has settled.
  • The website layout less intuitive than at other online bookmakers.
• Bottom line – William Hill is a fantastic betting agency. It, along with bet365, is one of the few large international bookmakers that supports Australian dollar accounts. The range of betting options is fantastic, and the low minimum bet levels are a huge plus. Coupled with the fact that William Hill is a massive, well regarded bookmaker, I highly recommend this service both to Australian and international users.

The hedge fund’s strategy is to bet on sporting markets where they feel they have a comparative advantage. This advantage is attained using proprietary computer models. The fund looks for sports markets where emotions impact the odds. They also target markets where they can undertake more research on the teams than the bookmakers. Most of the trading takes place during live games. The fund always designates odds at which it will pull out prior to placing any bets.

Galileo’s managing director estimates he’s making $400 per hour as a sports trader. The fund employs five traders and four analysts, all of whom have some finance background.

All I can say is, good luck to them! Time will tell whether they can deliver consistent returns that adequately compensate their investors for the fund’s risk. Much of the risk for investors stems from the uncertainty over how risky the fund actually is! With equity and property you can view historical returns, and use measures like value at risk, standard deviation, etc., to measure risk. With a fund like this, however, investors have no fund performance history with which to do this.

Another issue for me is liquidity. Due to limited market depth on many sports markets on exchanges such as Betfair, the more funds that are under management, the more limited the sports betting options. This may lead to a drop in the percentage of funds that can be wagered at any given time. As a fund manager in a sports betting market, it’s much easier to deliver a target return with $100,000 of funds under management than a million.

The major upside of a fund like this, however, is its performance will have no correlation with the stock market, commodity prices, property prices, or any other alternative investment. This will certainly appeal to investors who are looking to diversity their portfolio.

I wonder when Australia will have its first sports betting hedge fund? Any prospective entrant will be hoping that Galileo can prove successful to help them woo local investors. So, watch this space!

Source:
- Business Week – A League of Their Own