Despite being neighbours, the two sides play to a completely different strategy, with Ulster relying on its powerful pack and the trusty kicking of half backs, Ian Humphreys and Ruan Pienaar, while Leinster play 15 man rugby encouraged to run the ball whenever possible.

Both teams got to the final having come out on top in closely fought Semi Finals, which saw Ulster defeat Edinburgh 22-19 in Dublin where Pienaar kicked 5/5 penalties and converted their only try scored by flanker Pedrie Wannenburg.

Leinster had to withstand huge pressure in the final minutes in Bordeauxfrom Clermont Auvergneto win their place in the final. The match had been ultimately decided early in the second half, in Leinster’s favour by a glorious spell of individual rugby by full back Rob Kearney. The British Lion set up the only try of the game for Cian Healy after 41 minutes before weighing in with a 50 metre drop goal five minutes later. This gave Leinster the lead which they never relinquished winning the match 19-15.

The scoring statistics reveal that Ulster scored 18 tries compared to Leinster’s 23, although Ulster amassed more try bonus points however, due to two convincing wins over Italian side Aironi and a 41-7 surprise thrashing of Leicester at Ravenhill in January. Ulster conceded 122 points in 8 games (including 10 tries), at an average of 15.25 points per game, whilst Leinster’s total of 106 points conceded (including 7 tries) came at an average of 13.25 per game. With the ball in hand Leinster has the edge, scoring 23 tries in their 8 games compared to Ulster’s 18.

In an overall sense, the two teams have enjoyed similar campaigns, although Leinster has won every game played with the exception of the Pool Stage match against Glasgow which ended in a draw, Ulster on the other hand lost twice in the Pool stages, with one of those defeats, significantly coming against Clermont Auvergne who beat them 19-15; their other defeat came against Leicester.

In fact Leinster have not been beaten in the Heineken Cup since the Pool stages in December 2010, a stat which underlines their great desire in this competition. Ulster also showed in their Quarter Final match against Munster that they too have a great desire to win the Trophy for a second time and as such, the odds provided by Betting Directory for the Heineken Cup final, show that it is Leinster who are the warm favourites to win at 1/4 ($1.25) whilst Ulster are a 3/1 ($4.00) chance. In this match Craig Gilroy showed why he has become one of the most exciting backs in Irish rugby these days by scoring one of the tries of the season. The match also demonstrated the strength of the Ulster pack who forced penalty after penalty with Ruan Pienaar on hand to convert the vast majority of them.

Ulster’s strategy has been hugely successful this season and if Leinster concedes too many penalties, particularly in their half of the pitch then Pienaar will ruthlessly punish them. However, the Leinster’s forwards are a vastly experienced unit in their own right and will provided very stiff resistance to the power of Ulster. In behind them they have the kicking talents of Johnny Sexton at fly half and a try-scoring back line that includes Kearney, Isa Nacewa and the mercurial Brian O’Driscoll in the centre.

This has all the ingredients of becoming an outstanding final played between highly motivated teams that will give their all over the 80 minutes. Leinster however, has proven over the years that they are almost impossible to defeat in this competition and as such they are fully expected to win the Heineken Cup for a third time on four years.

Prediction: Leinster Victory by between 6-10 points.

NRL ROUND 11 PREVIEW

(BYE: Eels, Knights, Raiders, Storm, Broncos, Titans)

FRIDAY

Wests Tigers v New Zealand Warriors

Leichhardt Oval, 7:45pm (local).

TIGERS: Tim Moltzen, Beau Ryan, Joel Reddy, Blake Ayshford, Lote Tuqiri, Chris Lawrence, Benji Marshall, Aaron Woods, Tom Humble, Keith Galloway, Adam Blair, Liam  Fulton, Matt Bell. Interchange: Ben Murdoch-Masila, Matt Utai, Ray Cashmere, Pat Politoni

WARRIORS: Glen Fisiiahi, Bill Tupou, Ben Henry, Konrad Hurrell, Manu Vatuvei, James Maloney, Shaun Johnson, Russell Packer, Alehana Mara, Ben Matulino, Elijah Taylor, Simon Mannering (c), Feleti Mateo. Interchange: Lewis Brown, Sam Rapira, Sione Lousi, Jacob Lillyman.

The Warriors racked up back to back wins for the first time this season by taking the Roosters down to the wire with a 30-26 victory last week on home soil. This week they travel back across the Tasman to take on the Tigers who are hosting the match at their beloved Leichhardt Oval.

The Tigers are on a 3 game winning streak but let’s be realistic about the raw facts; The 3 opponents they have defeated during their winning treble have been the Panthers, Eels and Titans who are placed 15^th, 14^th and 16^th on the NRL ladder respectively. Hardly what you’d call ‘tough competition’. A Warriors outfit on a roll will be the perfect test for the Tigers and they will surely be out to seek revenge for the knockout loss that was inflicted on them the last time the two sides met which was in the 2011 semi-finals.

The Warriors and the Tigers sit on 10 competition points each and are 8^th and 9^th on the ladder respectively. A win tonight will prove crucial towards a top 8 berth.

Chance of winning: Tigers 49%, Warriors 49%, Draw 2%

Mike’s Tip: Tigers

Mike’s Suggested Bet: This should be a high scoring game and i’ll be taking the ‘Overs’ option in ‘Over/Under’ betting.

SATURDAY

North Queensland Cowboys v Penrith Panthers

Dairy Farmers Stadium, 7:30pm (local).

COWBOYS: Matthew Bowen, Ashley Graham, Antonio Winterstein, Kane Linnett, Kalifa Faifai Loa, Michael Morgan, Ray Thompson, Ashton Sims, Aaron Payne, Glenn Hall, Gavin Cooper, Tariq Sims, Dallas Johnson. Interchange (from): James Segeyaro, Ricky Thorby, Scott Bolton, Jason Taumalolo, Cory Paterson

PANTHERS: Lachlan Coote, Etu Uaisele, Geoff Daniela, Brad Tighe, Josh Mansour, Blake Austin, Travis Burns, Sam Mckendry, Kevin Kingston, Tim Grant, Clint Newton, Cameron Ciraldo, Ryan Simpkins. Interchange (from): Danny Galea, Chris Armit, Dayne Weston, Matt Robinson, Mitch Achurch

The last 4 matches contested between the Panthers and the Cowboys have yielded two wins each with all being won by the home team. The signs and bookies are pointing towards a Cowboys victory despite the loss of halfback Johnathan Thurston to State of Origin duties.

Penrith will surely have something to say about that following their gutsy 13-12 golden point win over the Dragons on Monday night. It would appear that the previous week’s demotion of marquee centre Michael Jennings has pumped up the remaining players into some sort of fiery unit eager to smash anything that approaches their defensive line. Surely a Cowboys side sans Thurston will do a bit of the same?

I’ll be sticking with the Cowboys however based on their superior forward pack in what may become a very physical affair.

Chance of winning: Cowboys 56%, Panthers 43%, Draw 1%

Mike’s Tip: Cowboys

Mike’s Suggested Bet: With Thurston out, Matt Bowen will take a bit of leadership around the ruck on the right hand side and ultimately he will either be looking for a try himself, or Ash Graham.

Take Ash Graham to score a try at anytime during the match.

SUNDAY

Manly Sea Eagles v Sydney Roosters

Brookvale Oval, 2:00pm (local).

SEA EAGLES: Dean Whare, Jorge Taufua, Jamie Lyon (c), Steve Matai, David Williams, Kieran Foran, Daly Cherry-Evans, Jason King (c), Matt Ballin, Brent Kite, Anthony Watmough, Daniel Harrison, Joe Galuvao. Interchange (from): Liam Foran, Vic Mauro, Darcy Lussick, George Rose, Nick Skinner, Tim Robinson

ROOSTERS: Anthony Minichiello, Tautau Moga, Joseph ‘BJ’ Leilua, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Sam Perrett, Braith Anasta, Daniel Mortimer, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Jake Friend, Martin Kennedy, Aidan Guerra, Mitchell Aubusson, Tinirau Arona. Interchange (from): Boyd Cordner, Lama Tasi, Brad Takairangi, Mose Masoe, Jack Bosden

The Roosters will go into this match without Mitchell Pearce, the NSW incumbent halfback who has been recalled to resume his representative duties in 2012. As for losses to the NSW side for Manly, they include Brett and Glen Stewart, Jamie Buhrer and Tony Willams. It’s a big hit for the Sea Eagles yet despite the seeming mass loss of troops, the bookies are all over them and have them as $1.50 favourites early on. The home ground advantage will have plenty to do with this along with the fact that the Manly men showed that they are serious competition contenders in 2012 following their come from behind, last minute win over the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium last Friday. The Roosters’ form has been of an opposite nature and sees them floundering a bit having only won 3 from their last 4 starts.

It’s hard to go past Manly tipping-wise but as I did last week, I’ll be giving the Roosters a fighting chance with the points start.

Chance of winning: Sea Eagles 49%, Roosters 49%, Draw 2%

Mike’s Tip: Sea Eagles

Mike’s Suggested Bet: Roosters +7.5 @ $1.80

St George Illawarra Dragons v South Sydney Rabbitohs

WIN Jubilee Oval, 3:00pm (local).

DRAGONS: Brett Morris, Daniel Vidot, Kyle Stanley, Matt Cooper, Jason Nightingale, Jamie Soward, Ben Hornby (c), Dan Hunt, Mitch Rein, Jeremy Latimore, Jake Marketo, Leeson Ah Mau, Dean Young. Interchange (from): Cameron King, Atelea Vea, David Gower, Jack de Belin, Chase Stanley, Jack Stockwell

RABBITOHS: Nathan Merritt, Andrew Everingham, Matt King, Dylan Farrell, Justin Hunt, John Sutton, Adam Reynolds, Scott Geddes, Issac Luke, Dave Tyrrell, Eddy Pettybourne, Sam Burgess, Michael Crocker. Interchange (from): Jason Clark, Ben Lowe, Josh Starling, Luke Burgess, Chris McQueen, Nathan Peats

A battle of two traditional rivals will take place at WIN Jubilee oval sadly without the likes of Greg Inglis who is out playing hero for QLD. Inglis has been in scintillating form since his switch to fullback and Souths would no doubt be favourites for this clash had he been playing. As it stands, both sides are penned in as $1.90 equal favourites.

Sam Burgess returns for the Rabbitohs and I can see why this is viewed as such an even looking contest. I’m tipping the Dragons…..just, but a victory will have to come off the back of some faultless defence as the the Red V is struggling to post sizeable scores of late.

Chance of winning: Dragons 49%, Rabbitohs 49%, Draw 1%

Mike’s Tip: Dragons

Mike’s Suggested Bet: Dragons Head to Head @ $1.90

MONDAY

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Cronulla Sharks

ANZ Stadium, 7:00pm (local).

BULLDOGS: Ben Barba, Luke Macdougall, Tim Lafai, Jonathan Wright, Bryson Goodwin, Josh Reynolds, Kris Keating, Aiden Tolman, Mick Ennis, Sam Kasiano, Frank Pritchard, Dene Halatau, Greg Eastwood. Interchange: James Graham, David Stagg, Corey Payne, Joel Romelo

SHARKS: Matthew Wright, Isaac Gordon, Ben Pomeroy, Colin Best, John Williams, Wade Graham, Jeff Robson, Bryce Gibbs, Isaac De Gois, Ben Ross, Sam Tagataese, Jayson Bukuya, Jeremy Smith (c). Interchange (from): Andrew Fifita, Mark Taufua, John Morris, Tyson Frizell, Jon Green

Chance of winning: Bulldogs 60%, Sharks 39%, Draw 1%

Mike’s Tip: Bulldogs

Mike’s Suggested Bet: 1^st scoring play: Bulldogs try

(Team lists sourced from nrl.com.au)

Season tally so far

Bets = 70.5 units
Won = 85.9 units
Profit/Loss = +15.4 units (21.8% profit)

CHEEKY WEEK 8 AFL MULTI

Andy’s bet: 1 unit on Western Bulldogs to win by 25 points or more, Brisbane to win by 25 points or more and West Coast to win by 16 points or more @ 4.80 (Sportingbet)

Friday Night

Collingwood v Geelong Cats

MCG
7.50pm AEST

This absolute belter from the MCG kicks off the Round 8 action and to add extra flavour to an already mouth-watering clash, it’s a rematch of last year’s grand final.

There’s actually been quite a lot of change since last season’s October decider. Collingwood have switched coaches, with former club champion Nathan Buckley taking over from the distinguished Mick Malthouse, while from the playing personnel, 16 of the 22 Magpies that played in last season’s grand final will take to the field again on Friday, with the Cats selecting 17 players from their 2011 premiership side.

They would never admit it, but I’ve got a sneaking suspicion Geelong went into last week’s game against Adelaide with one eye already looking forward to this clash against one of their big rivals. The Cats were comprehensively beaten by the Crows last Saturday, however Geelong thrive under the big game pressure and Chris Scott’s men will be looking to bounce straight back, making a statement to the other clubs that the Cats are still the team to beat this season.

Collingwood’s defensive vulnerability was exposed during last season’s grand final as Geelong’s Tom Hawkins turned the match in his team’s favour during the second half, regularly outmuscling a slightly injured Ben Reid in aerial contests. With Chris Tarrant and Nathan Brown missing, it is up to Reid and newcomer Lachie Keeffe to quell the influence of the dangerous Hawkins and his forward line partner James Podsiadly. Keeffe has been a revelation down back for the Pies this year and Reid looks to have regained his mobility after an interrupted start to the season, so the Magpies should provide some resistance in defence. Geelong have looked to further press Collingwood’s lack of height down back by including ruckman Orren Stephenson. The aim of this move is to allow fellow Cats ruckman Trent West to spend more time in the forward line against a shorter opponent.

The inclusions for both teams are mighty impressive, with Geelong’s Jimmy Bartel and Matthew Scarlett two of the league’s premier players, while the Pies have recalled their own Premiership pairing of Dale Thomas and Darren Jolly.

I am going with the Cats to win as I can see them breaking Collingwood open with more ease than the other way around.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Geelong to win by 24 points or less @ 3.90 (Centrebet)

Saturday Afternoon

Port Adelaide v North Melbourne

AAMI Stadium
1.45pm AEST

Both these teams will head into this match on a downer after a run of poor recent form. The Power haven’t won since the opening week of the season, while the Kangaroos have slipped out of the top 8 after a disappointing recent month saw their only win come against lowly Gold Coast. Of course, the flip side of all that is both teams will see this as a winnable game if they can find some form.

A trip over the border should hold no fears for the Kangaroos as they have beaten the Power in 3 of the last 4 matches between the teams at AAMI Stadium. Of more concern for North is the knee injury sustained last week by in-form ruckman Hamish McIntosh. The big man had overtaken Todd Goldstein to be the club’s top ruckman, so Goldstein will need to recapture his impressive 2011 form with McIntosh back on the sidelines.

Port has made five changes and the one that got me most excited was the return of Jay Schulz. The key forward has recovered from an eye injury and is a timely inclusion to a forward line that managed only 15 goals during his two game absence. Schulz had been solid early this season, booting at least two goals in every game he’d played up until the injury, while his recent form against the Kangaroos is also good, with the big man bagging 10 goals over his last two matches against North.

I feel that North will win, but some handy goals from Schulz will keep the margin down.

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on North Melbourne to win by 1-39 points @ 2.35 (Sportingbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Jay Schulz for most goals @ 4.50 (TAB Sportsbet)

Hawthorn v Fremantle Dockers

Aurora Stadium
2.10pm AEST

This match is the second Tasmanian excursion of the season for Hawthorn, with Fremantle the unlucky opponents drawn to play the Hawks in Australia’s coldest state. This is a crunch game for both teams as the Hawks sit surprisingly just outside the top 8, while Fremantle have snuck into 6th spot.

A focus on defence has taken Fremantle to their lofty ladder position and this is proven by the Dockers being ranked as the league’s best for least points conceded, although a glass half empty person might well point to the Dockers lowly ranking of 13th for points scored and say they are not capable of scoring enough goals to beat good teams.

While Freo coach Ross Lyon’s defensive mantra is very effective at winning many games of football, it is very labour intensive and his team has to work very hard to score each goal. Hawthorn are the complete opposite as Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli can use their brilliance to put a game out of their opponents reach during just a few minutes of breathtaking football.

The inclusion of reliable defender Josh Gibson is a big boost for the Hawks and enough to sway me across to the Hawks and back them to register an important win. Hawthorn on-baller Sam Mitchell collected at least 30 possessions in each of the 4 games he played at this ground last year, so I reckon he’ll bounce back from a poor game here against the Swans earlier this season to top his most disposals group.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 39 points or less @ 2.25 (Sportsbet, TAB Sportsbet) 

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Sam Mitchell for most disposals in Group A @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)

Sydney Swans v Melbourne

SCG
4.40pm AEST

A home game against winless Melbourne represents an excellent chance for Sydney to collect a victory after two successive losses have halted their early season momentum. The Demons, meanwhile, will be desperate for a good result to get them off the bottom of the ladder.

With a seemingly uneven matchup like this, the analysis needs to focus on the winning margin rather than the winning team. The Demons look to be making a real focus to increase their goalscoring capacity by including Liam Jurrah, Brad Green and Jack Watts. Jurrah is a particularly bold selection given he is facing charges related to an alleged machete attack and appeared in court only two days before this match.

Sydney maintain a really consistent attack on the footy and are a well drilled team that play within their limitations. This means that you have to play well if you want to beat them, particularly on the SCG, a ground the Swans have perfectly adapted their game plan too. Sydney are down on personnel and Melbourne are starting to get players back so this game should be closer than many expect, but I don’t reckon the Demons have enough talent and desire to get past the Swans. This should be a scrappy low scoring match, so I’ll play the unders on the total score line.

Andy’s Bet: Total match score under 180.5 points @ 1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)

Saturday Night

Essendon v Richmond

MCG
7.45pm AEST

Just like the night before, this will be another ripper from the MCG. Essendon has impressed all with a scintillating start to the season, including thrashings of premiership fancies Carlton and West Coast. Even though they weren’t winning, Richmond actually played well early this season against same of the league’s better teams, and with back to back victories over Port Adelaide and Sydney, the Tigers are now being rewarded for their efforts.

Essendon look even more imposing this week as full forward Michael Hurley returns to the Bomber forward line. Despite the extra attention defenders have placed on him, Stewart Crameri has continued to dominate in Hurley’s absence and both men need to be closely watched. I sense this is not a good week to be a Richmond defender.

Even though they were excellent against Sydney last weekend, Richmond will need to improve further if they are to compete with Essendon. The Tigers matched the Swans in the contested possession count last week and out-ran them when they got ball the ball clear, Essendon are a great team when the game opens up, so Richmond will need to be careful if they continue to play a daring attacking strategy.

I got burnt by only tipping the Bombers to win by 39 points or less last week, so this time I won’t cap their winning margin and will back them to win by 16 points or more

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Essendon to win by 16 points or more @ 2.00 (Multiple Sites)

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast Suns

TIO Stadium
7.40pm AEST

The season has slipped away from Gold Coast after an embarrassing loss to GWS has left them at 0-7. Coach Guy McKenna already seems to be looking to next year and has wasted no time swinging the selection axe. Four players have been chopped and a further two make way due to injury, meaning a host of players are promoted for their first matches of the season, including former Saint Andrew McQualter for his first Suns game, while 18 year old Alex Sexton makes his AFL debut.

The Doggies have no such problems and a win here would make it four for the season, lifting them close to a spot in the top 8. Two changes have been forced on the Dogs, with forward line options Jordan Roughead and Patrick Veszpremi missing through injury. Not much will be lost though as Liam Jones and Nathan Djerrkura are suitable replacements.

Gold Coast’s youngsters seemed to shrink back a little bit last week as their captain, Gary Ablett, returned to the lineup. Without their skipper, the young blokes had a real crack, so it was disappointing to see them take a back seat against GWS, expecting Ablett to do all the work for them. Ablett will be in for a tough night this Saturday as Bulldog tagger Liam Picken will almost certainly get the job on Gold Coast’s champion, remaining by his side and niggling the little master all evening.

With Ablett set to be under a heavy tag, his younger teammates need to take up some of the slack otherwise it’s going to be a rout.

Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on the Western Bulldogs to win by 25 points or more @ 1.60 (Centrebet, Sportingbet)

Sunday Afternoon

Brisbane Lions v GWS Giants

Gabba
1.10pm AEST

Brisbane are the next team to face the effervescent youngsters from Greater Western Sydney. Now GWS have won a match, future opponents will treat them more warily. I must admit my surprise at how well the Giants have handled their introduction to the big time and with such a fierce attack on the footy, all their young players are earning plenty of respect.

Despite GWS’s recent victory over Gold Coast, I still can’t see them beating the more established teams. Brisbane are one of the weaker AFL sides but still possess quality players like Simon Black, Tom Rockliff, Jonathan Brown and Daniel Rich, while Jack Redden, Jed Adcock and Matt Maguire do a reliable job each week.

For the Giants it’s back to the boys against men clichés.

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Brisbane to win by 40 points or more @ 2.42 (Sportingbet)

Carlton v Adelaide Crows

Etihad Stadium
3.15pm AEST

Adelaide must feel they are capable of anything right now. Two weeks ago the Crows achieved the rare distinction of beating Sydney at the SCG and followed that up by outplaying reigning premier Geelong last week. Carlton has been a bit funny recently, seemingly overawed by premiership favouritism the Blues struggled to put away GWS a fortnight ago before being outplayed by St Kilda at this venue on Monday night.

For me, this match has been won and lost at the selection table. Adelaide are without Taylor Walker as the competition’s leading goalscorer has been suspended for the next two weeks and unheralded youngster Josh Jenkins has been named in Walker’s place at centre half-forward. Carlton are boosted by the return of flamboyant rebounding defender Chris Yarran, which is good news for the Blues as I feel that Yarran’s absence has been the major reason for Carlton’s recent dip in form. Without him, Carlton’s defence is a bit one paced and isn’t very inventive when on the rebound. Yarran can often spark his side with a dazzling run from defence, giving others the confidence to also take the game on.

With Walker our for the Crows and Yarran in for the Blues, my betting scales have tipped in Carlton’s favour.

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Carlton to win by 39 points or less @ 2.30 (Centrebet, Sportingbet)

West Coast Eagles v St Kilda

Patersons Stadium
4.40pm AEST

The weekend rounds out with another cracking game, this time from Perth. Ladder leader West Coast will be looking to bounce straight back from a horror showing against Essendon, while St Kilda will be hoping to continue with same enthusiasm and verve that carried them to an impressive win over Carlton.

St Kilda’s patchwork ruck combination of Rhys Stanley and Justin Koschitzke actually did ok on Monday against Carlton’s usually dominant big men, however West Coast’s ruck division is something else entirely. Nic Naitanui is back for the Eagles and he will team up with partner in crime Dean Cox to give the Eagles are head start at every crucial stoppage. That’s a big shame for the Saints as their midfield, led by the inspirational Lenny Hayes, is probably better than West Coast’s, but will have to approach this game with a very defensive mindset.

St Kilda’s small forwards stole the show last week and although their snap goals are exciting for fans, I don’t think it’s a sustainable option to win enough games to make finals. Saints centre half-forward Nick Riewoldt is the key to his side’s fortunes in this game and for the rest of the season. Unfortunately for Riewoldt, with West Coast likely to win the clearances due to the work of Cox and Naitanui, the Saints skipper is unlikely to get enough ball supply in this one. The Eagles should be too good.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on West Coast to win by 16 points or more @ 1.80 (Multiple Sites)

This article provides a comparison of bookmaker margins from twelve popular services. It is a follow up to our 2011 bookmaker margin survey, which compared betting odds across various Australian and international bookmakers. This article summarises our 2012 survey, which includes a number of bookmakers that weren’t included in the previous study.

What are Bookmaker Margins?

The bookmaker margin is a measure of a bookmaker’s profit margin for an event, and can be regarded as a hidden transaction cost for punters. For example, in a coin toss where heads and tails each have a probability of 50%, a bookmaker won’t offer 2.00 odds on each outcome. It will instead offer odds of, say, 1.92. If equal wagers are placed on heads and tails, the bookmaker will secure a profit regardless of the result. This profit is how bookmakers finance their services, but they vary in the levels of margins used.

From a punter’s perspective, the lower the margin, the better. While the difference between 1.90 and 1.92 line odds may not seem significant for a single wager, when betting repeatedly this adds up, and it can make the difference between winning and losing money.

How to Calculate Bookmaker Margins

When using the decimal odds system, which is common in Australia and Europe, calculating the bookmaker margin for an event is easy. The margin equals the sum of the reciprocals of the the odds. Below are calculation examples using two- and three-outcome events.

How to Interpret Bookmaker Margins

The margin measures the bookmaker’s profit if it were to receive wagers on each outcome in proportion to the odds. Suppose a bookmaker offers odds a on outcome A and odds b on outcome B. If proportion b/(a+b) is wagered on A and a/(a+b) is wagered on B, then the bookmaker will receive the same profit regardless of the result, which is equal to the margin. This margin is amount by which the actual “book” exceeds 100%. For this reason, you will always get a value of at least 1.00.

For example, the bookmaker margin for the two-outcome event above is 1.035, or 103.5%. Suppose $100,000 in total is wagered on the market, with:

     [1.64/(1.64 + 2.35)] x $100,000 = $41,102.76 wagered on Oklahoma City and
     [2.35/(1.64 + 2.35)] x $100,000 = $58,897.24 wagered on Denver.

Depending on the outcome, the bookmaker will pay out one of the following two amounts:

If Oklahoma City wins: $41,102.75 x 2.35 = $96,591.48      If Denver wins: $58,897.24 x 1.64 = $96,591.48 The bookmaker took $100,000 in wagers, but only pays out $96,591.48. If we divide the intake by the outgoings we get $100,000/$96,591.48 = 103.5%, as calculated by the margin earlier. Obviously a bookmaker will rarely receive wagers that are perfectly in proportion to the odds, but over the countless number of markets offered the margin will equate to the bookmaker’s average profit margin across all events. To give some perspective on how odds relate to margins, the table on the right compares various equal line odds (bets with a 50% chance of winning) to their respective margins. Note that 2.00 odds equate to a margin of 1.00, where the bookmaker makes no profit on the market.

Bookmaker Margin Survey

Bookmaker margins have been calculated for twelve bookmakers that offer Australian dollar accounts. The margins in the table below reflect the average margin across a sample of events logged for each sport. The margins have been calculated for head to head, line, and over/under markets, where available. These margins have then been averaged to give a representative margin per sport.

In the summary table below, the lowest average margin for a given sport is highlighted in green, while the highest margin is highlighted in red. A blank cell means odds were not available for that particular sport at the time of review.

When we rank the bookmakers in ascending order of their average margin we get the following:

The bookmakers fall into five tiers:

1. Pinnacle Sports is in a league of its own, with margins that are often half that of its competitors. Pinnacle Sports markets itself as a low margin bookmaker and our research validates that claim.
2. Betfair (using 5% Betfair commissions) offers the second best value. It should be noted that because it is an exchange rather than a bookmaker, the margins vary depending on the popularity of the event. Popular events dominated this year’s survey, so Betfair scored well. For less popular events and markets Betfair can easily have margins that are higher than standard bookmakers.
3. In the third bracket we have bet365 along with most of the popular Australian bookmakers.
4. Next we have Bookmaker.com.au and Stan James, although it should be noted that Bookmaker.com.au is a new bookmaker. Its margins could well come down once it has launched its full market line up later in the year.
5. The worst performers were 10bet.com and TAB Sportsbet, however 10bet.com’s results were heavily influenced by its high margins on the NBL. When excluding this league its average margin comes down to 1.061, promoting it to the fourth tier.

Line Survey

The table below summarises even lines surveyed for popular sports.

Pinnacle Sports is again the standout performer, with even lines of 1.952 offered on most sports.

Conclusions

This survey was a repeat of our 2011 margin survey, using 2012 odds and additional bookmakers.
Pinnacle Sports was again the stand out performer, with margins that were often half that of its competitors. The major Australian bookmakers offer similar value, while TAB Sportsbet offers the least value of the Australian bookmakers.

Keep in mind that higher margins enable bookmakers to offer better services. Pinnacle Sports offers a simple betting service, while a higher margin bookmaker like bet365 offers a flashier user interface, live video feeds and access to team statistics.

While high margins may deter you from obtaining membership with a particular bookmaker, it can still be beneficial to maintain an account with that service within a portfolio of memberships. This is because the bookmaker may still provide the best odds for a particular outcome. TAB Sportsbet frequently offers odds that are in contrast to other bookmakers, so while its margins are higher, it is often the best value for a particular selection. This was observed on numerous occasions during the data entry process for this survey. The same can be said for Stan James.

It should be noted that bookmaker margins for a particular bookmaker will vary from sport to sport. Popular leagues often entail lower margins. For example the average English Premier League margin across the surveyed bookmakers was 1.06, as opposed to 1.072 for the A-League. The average margin for the NBA was 1.045 as opposed to 1.054 for the NBL. This result is a combination of three things. First, the popular leagues are subject to more research and scrutiny by odds making services. This makes bookmakers more confident in their odds, enabling them to narrow the margin. Second, the more popular leagues are wagered on more heavily by punters than less popular sports. This added ‘liquidity’ makes it easier for bookmakers to adjust the odds and balance their books, so to speak, if punters initially favour one selection over another. This added liquidity implies less risk for bookmakers, enabling them to narrow the margin. Finally, when punters make casual comparisons of bookmaker odds, they are likely to compare odds for the more popular markets. A bookmaker would not wish to be seen offering poorer value on the headline markets such as the NRL and AFL, so they tend to be more competitive in these markets.

Not only do margins vary from league to league, but with some bookmakers they also vary from fixture to fixture. More popular fixtures, such as Man Utd vs Man City, will attract greater interest, which can result in lower margins for the reasons discussed in the previous paragraph.

Finally, please note that this survey was conducted in April and May 2012, and that the margin averages were heavily dependent on the sample of sporting events chosen. Comparative margin levels may change over time, and may differ for sports not covered in this survey.

The following are previews and betting tips for Round 13 of the 2012 Super Rugby competition.

With two-thirds of the competition complete and just six rounds to play it is quickly becoming do-or-die for the teams on the fringe of a playoff berth. The Sharks currently occupy the final playoff spot on 36 points, which means the Western Force (18), Blues (16) and Lions (14) are effectively out of finals contention. The Waratahs (27), Cheetahs (27) and Rebels (24) have an outside chance, while the Highlanders (35), Hurricanes (34) and Reds (31) are still very much in finals contention.

View the head-to-head form guide for the round.

Friday 18 May

Hurricanes v Brumbies

5:35 PM AEST, Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Round 13 opens with a great clash featuring two sides very much in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Hurricanes enter this fixture on the back of victories over the Blues and Highlanders, while the Brumbies won their previous two games against the Lions and Waratahs. The Hurricanes’ win over the Highlanders has drawn them right back into the playoff picture. They now sit just two points behind the 6th placed Sharks and three points behind the 5th placed Crusaders. They showed good continuity in attack last week and looked dangerous in open play. They are a side that thrives on turnover ball and open, free-flowing games. Fullback Andre Taylor will be disappointed to have missed out on the 35-man All Blacks training squad given the strong season he is having. One interesting squad change for this fixture is Tusi Pisi will wear the No. 10 jersey for the first time this season with Beauden Barrett starting on the bench.

The Brumbies will still be on a high after dispatching the Waratahs 23-6 before their bye last week. The victory came at a cost, however, with No. 10 Christian Lealiifano ruled out for up to six months with a broken ankle. In a squad that is short of star names this will be a huge blow. Having said that, the Brumbies were given little chance at the start of the season due to their youthful squad, but they are a great example of how a team can be bigger than the sum of its parts. A lot of credit has to go to their South African and former Springboks coach Jake White.

This should be a balanced, free-flowing, open contest. It is good game for the neutral, but not necessarily for the punter, because it’s a tough one to predict. The result will provide good insight into how the Brumbies will fare without their star playmaker. It will also provide insight into the Hurricanes playoff chances.

Tip: either side to win by 1-12

Betting: back the Brumbies (+5.0) at the line

Saturday 19 May

Highlanders v Bulls

3:30 PM AEST, Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

The second game of the round is also an excellent one for the neutral. The Highlanders have run with the ball more than any other team this season while the Bulls average almost 34 points scored per game, which is the comfortably highest in the competition. After starting the season well the Highlanders are starting to wobble as the injury list takes its toll. They have lost consecutive games for the first time this season (Sharks away, Hurricanes at home), and they will know that a third straight loss will likely see them slip more than five points behind the 6th and last playoff spot. The Highlanders faded badly at the end of last season, and while they have more depth this time round, I don’t fancy their playoff chances this year.

The Bulls continue to do just enough to pick up wins. Their 27-24 victory over the Waratahs was their 5th on the trot, which is the best active winning streak in the competition. Four of those five wins have been by six points or less, and they have averaged almost 62 points per game in total scores during that stretch, so they are used to high scoring games. Morne Steyn continues to be excellent with the boot, which has been a major factor in their success. The only issue for the Bulls is whether their fitness can hold up over this six-game overseas tour. After this round they play the Chiefs before heading back to South Africa to host the Stormers. There’s a decent chance they won’t win either of those games, so I’m sure they’ll eye up this fixture as an important game.

Tip: Bulls to win by 1-12

Betting: the Highlanders will have to put a lot of points on the board if they are to emerge victorious. Given the extensive Highlanders injury list I would back the Bulls at 1.90 to make it six in a row (odds from Centrebet).

Crusaders v Blues

5:35 PM AEST, Rugby League Park, Christchurch

The Crusaders will be licking their wounds after suffering a shock 28-19 loss to the Rebels last week in Melbourne. Todd Blackadder’s plan to rest six frontline players backfired terribly with the Rebels putting on a spirited performance in the second half to overcome a 19-10 halftime deficit. The Crusaders were pinged for constant infringements and they weren’t able to mount any reply to second half tries by Phipps and Mortlock. They ended up scoreless in the second half and return to New Zealand with a point to prove. The Christchurch side has not played up to everyone’s expectations this year, with their much-vaunted attack failing to fire. They have scored just 23 tries in 11 games this season, compared to 40 this time last year.

The Blues snapped their seven-game losing streak by beating the toothless Lions 25-3 last week. It wasn’t a convincing performance, especially given the Lions entered last week’s fixture having lost their last eight. The Blues lineout continues to go awry and their kick-off returns remain poor. They went lateral far too quickly and were easy to defend against at times. The Blues also conceded too many costly penalties, particularly in the first half. They were a better side in the second half, it has to be said, and they were able to convert more of their dominance in territory into points. Anscombe had a strong game with his in-play kicking behind the Lions backline, although he missed three penalties and a conversion, which would have cost them dearly in a closer game. One of the positives for the Blues this season has been their solid scrum, and I’m sure Woodcock & Co. would love to dominate that aspect of the game against the Crusaders this weekend.

After an insipid performance against the Reds in round 11 I said that I didn’t expect the Crusaders to put in two poor performances in a row, but they did just that. They still hold a playoff position, but have opened the door for the Hurricanes and Highlanders, not to mention the Reds. They really need to win this game and I’m sure the Blues would love to be the spoilers here.

Tip: Crusaders to win by 1-12

Betting: the Crusaders remain joint favourites at 4.00 odds to win this competition, and I can’t help but think they’re overrated. Anyone who has backed them week in, week out will have a hole in their wallet, and once again, the head-to-head odds are a too short for my liking. I’d be more inclined to back the Blues (+9.5) at the line.

Reds v Lions

7:40 PM AEST, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Round 12 could not have gone better for the Reds. On top of their inspired 42-27 comeback victory over the Chiefs, the Waratahs, Crusaders and Highlanders lost, which has enabled the Reds to climb within five points of a playoff spot. They have put the rest of the competition on notice by snapping the Chiefs nine-game winning streak, and will fancy themselves as a genuine chance of taking the Australian conference over the Lealiifano-less Brumbies. The Reds and Brumbies play each other next week, and with the hapless Lions their next opponents, I wonder if the Reds will have one eye already on round 14.

After putting in a strong performance against the Chiefs in round 11, the Lions were absolutely dreadful in their 25-3 loss to the Blues last week, with a toothless attacking display. Like the Blues they went lateral too early, spreading the ball wide as they shuffled from one side of the field to another without gaining much territory. They have some powerful ball runners in the squad and they need to play more like they did against the Chiefs, using their strong forwards to bust their way up the middle to get good go-forward ball. One strategy the Lions have employed over the past few weeks is to pass up numerous kickable penalty opportunities to take the quick tap. It hasn’t worked out for them thus far, and if they continue to employ that strategy then the margin could be a blow out.

Tip: Reds to win by 13+

Betting: The Reds may make some squad rotations for this fixture, but if the Lions play like they did last week then it should still be a comfortable victory for the Queenslanders. I’d back the Reds (-18.5) at the line. One option is to take the 1.07 head-to-head odds for the Reds and pair it with other wagers as two-leg multi bets (odds from Centrebet).

Sunday 20 May

Cheetahs v Sharks

1:05 AM AEST, Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein

The Cheetahs’ second half heroics saw them fall just short against the highly fancied Stormers last week. They came back from 16-0 down at the break to only just lose 16-14 in the end. Like the Waratahs they are still a chance of making the playoffs, but need to win fixtures such as this to have any chance. With their best player in Johan Goosen out for the season it’s going to be a tough ask, especially given the ruthless form the Sharks are in.

After a shaky start to the season the Sharks are firming as playoff contenders. Their 53-11 demolition of the ill-disciplined Western Force sees them move into the 6th and final playoff spot, and I think there’s a decent chance the South African conference will feature three teams in the top six this season. The rest of their fixtures are against South African sides so they will have to get the better of their countrymen if they are to feature in the playoffs. They will eye the Cheetahs and Lions fixtures in particular as games they must win.

Tip: Sharks to win, but I can’t predict the margin

Betting: back the Sharks to win at 1.71 (odds from Centrebet).

Stormers v Waratahs

3:10 AM AEST, Newlands Stadium, Cape Town

The Stormers will be relieved to have come away from their game against the unfancied Cheetahs with a victory. They led 16-0 at halftime but were scoreless in the second spell as they held on for a 16-14 win. They have only lost won game this season, which is the best win-loss record of the competition. The Stormers sit behind the high scoring Bulls in the South African conference, however, due to superior the bonus points tally of the Bulls. They face two tough fixtures away from home against the Sharks and Bulls after this, so they will be keen to hit the road in winning form.

It would have been a long, sombre flight for the Waratahs after their 24-27 loss to the Bulls last week. It was hyped up as being a must-win game, and with a tough fixture against the Stormers this week, many pundits will have written off the Waratahs’ chances of making the playoffs this season. The nature of the loss to the Bulls will have hurt, conceding a late try that stemmed from a scrum with their put in. One positive for the Waratahs is that Drew Mitchell passed a fitness test last Friday and has been included in their tour squad. The Waratahs always play with the weight of expectation on their shoulders, and with that burden now lifted it will be interesting to see if they start putting in better performances for the last third of the season.

Tip: Stormers to win by 1-12

Betting: back the Stormers to win at 1.30 (odds from Centrebet).

Western Force v Rebels

4:35 PM AEST, NIB Stadium, Perth

The Western Force return to Australia having lost all three games in their tour of South Africa. They have now lost their last five and will likely turn their attention away from obtaining a playoff spot to avoiding the wooden spoon in the Australian conference. Their lack of discipline has been costly. Last week against the Sharks they conceded 17 penalties which undid all their good work in putting phases together. The ended up losing 53-11 despite nearly matching the Sharks in possession. A poor defensive effort saw them leak 43 consecutive points and seven tries in all. Despite the bad results, they will still give themselves a real chance of beating the Rebels. The Rebels did upset the Crusaders last week, but they are winless on the road this season. The previous time the Rebels won a game (34-23 against the Blues), they backed it up with a terrible performance (6-37 against the Brumbies), so the Force can take heart from that.

The Rebels will be on a high after a spirited second half performance saw them overcome the highly fancied Crusaders. On top of coming from behind to win, the Rebels will be pleased to have kept their opponents scoreless in the second half. They now sit 12 points behind a playoff spot, so to have any chance of making the playoffs they must win most of their remaining fixtures. As I alluded to earlier, the Rebels are winless on the road this season, so they will have to turn that statistic around immediately if they are to keep their season alive.

Tip: Rebels to win by 1-12

Betting: given the Rebels poor away form this game could go either way. I give the visitors the edge given the discipline and defensive issues that interim Western Force coach Phil Blake is having to sort out. I would back the Rebels to win at 1.90 (odds from Centrebet)

Earlier this year we took a look at international bookmakers that offer online in-play (live) betting and Australian dollar accounts. This follow-up article provides a more in-depth look at the services and live markets offered by each bookmaker. It should be noted that the focus here is on services that offer live online betting to Australian residents. If you live outside Australia then the best bookmaker for live online wagering is bet365. Note that bet365 does offer live betting to Australians but, as is the case with Australian bookmakers, in-play wagering is only available to Australian residents over the phone. The bookmakers discussed here offer live online betting to Australian residents.

This article consists of two surveys: (1) a survey of in-play betting features and (2) a survey of in-play markets.

• Skip to the features survey results >>
• Skip to the sports leagues and markets survey results >>

What is In-Play Betting?

In-Play wagering, also called live, or in the run betting, is the act of wagering on a sporting event that has already commenced. In-play sports betting provides the excitement of having to make quick decisions. It also enables you to place counter bets if things aren’t going your way, or hedge your bets if you have backed the side that’s in the ascendancy. Furthermore, it is often hard to get a read on how a game will pan out until it is underway, so many punters prefer to wager once an event has started.

In-play betting isn’t huge in Australia, but it is massive in Europe where, according to Betfair, live betting accounts for 90% of wagers on cricket, tennis and soccer. View our guide to live sports betting.

Australian Law

Australian licensed bookmakers only offer in-play betting over the phone. The Australian Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (IGA) makes it an offence to offer real money online “interactive” gambling services to Australian residents. The term interactive has been extended to include in-play sports betting. This law technically applies to all online operators, regardless of whether they are licensed in Australia. Interestingly, adherence to the IGA is the responsibility of the gambling operators and not Australian punters. An Australian resident is not breaking the law by betting live online.

Most offshore betting providers either ignore, or are unaware of the IGA, and continue to offer online in-play betting to Australian residents. As things stand, Australians are free to participate in live online betting because any infringements would entail penalties for the betting operator and not the punter.

Live Betting Features Survey

The following table summarises the online in-play betting features offered by bookmakers that support Australian dollar accounts. Below the table is an explanation of each of the features surveyed. The Y/N/P/M cells are interpreted as follows:

Y – yes – this feature is offered
N – no – this featured is not offered
P – partial – this feature is offered for some, but not all, fixtures
M – most – this feature is offered for most fixtures

Below are explanations of each of the features surveyed.

Live Betting Sports & Markets Survey

Over a period of two weeks in late April and early May 2012, we recorded the in-play events offered by each bookmaker. Below is a summary of our findings. The Y/N/P/M cells are interpreted as follows:

Y – yes – this sport/league is covered
N – no – this sport/league is not covered
P – partial – some fixtures from this sport/league are covered
M – most – most of the fixtures from this sport/league are covered

For many of the Y, P and M cells you will see a figure in parenthesis. This number indicates how many markets were available for the surveyed event at the time of review. For example, if the following markets for a football match are available:
- Head to head
- Line
- Over/under
We would record three markets as being available for that event.

A figure such as (3) means we observed three in-play markets for each of the event(s) surveyed in that league.

A figure such as (3-5) means we observed between three and five in-play markets for the events surveyed in that league.

A blank cell means the bookmaker’s website was unavailable at the time of review. Below are the survey results.

For football (soccer) fixtures, 10bet.com and 12BET had the greatest coverage. They were also stronger for US professional sports.

For the popular Australian sporting codes (AFL, NRL, Super Rugby), Victor Chandler had the best coverage, followed by Stan James.

Conclusions

For in-play betting features, Stan James and Victor Chandler were the strongest bookmakers. The Stan James interface was by far the best of the bookmakers surveyed. We encountered the occasional website bug and glitch, which prevented us from giving it a full 5/5 for the interface rating. 12BET has the weakest, least user-friendly interface. Its concise display of betting markets will please seasoned punters, but beginners will find the interface to be unintuitive.

None of the bookmakers surveyed provided a complete coverage of the sporting events we surveyed. The bookmaker that is best for your in-play wagering needs will depend on which sports you intend to wager on. You may find it necessary to sign up with two services to get sufficient coverage of the sports and leagues you follow. Betfred and Blue Square had the weakest in-play betting selection of the bookmakers we surveyed. 10bet.com and 12BET were the strongest for football and American sports, while Victor Chandler and Stan James offered the best selection on Australian sports.

It should be noted that AllYouBet was also surveyed, but its interface and sporting markets were identical to 10bet.com. The survey results for 10bet.com also apply to AllYouBet.

(BYE: Wests Tigers, South Sydney Rabbitohs)

FRIDAY

Brisbane Broncos v Manly Sea Eagles

Suncorp Stadium, 7:00pm (local).

BRONCOS: Josh Hoffman, Gerard Beale, Jack Reed, Justin Hodges, Dale Copley, Corey Norman, Ben Hunt, Ben Hannant, Andrew McCullough, Petero Civoniceva, Alex Glenn, Sam Thaiday (c), Corey Parker. Interchange: Luke Capewell, Josh McGuire, Matt Gillett, Ben Te’o

SEA EAGLES: Brett Stewart, Jorge Taufua, Jamie Lyon (c), Steve Matai, David Williams, Liam Foran, Daly Cherry-Evans, Jason King (c), Matt Ballin, Brent Kite, Anthony Watmough, Jamie Buhrer, Glenn Stewart. Interchange (from): Vic Mauro, Joe Galuvao, Darcy Lussick, George Rose, Daniel Harrison, Dean Whare.

There’s always something a bit special about a Broncos v Sea Eagles match and this one is also shaping up to be a quality encounter. Both teams will be without one of their halves; Peter Wallace won’t be playing for Brisbane because of a groin complaint and Manly’s Keiran Foran will remain on the sidelines for another week. Off season recruit Luke Capewell will be taking Wallace’s place in the side and I doubt he’ll be lacking any confidence in front of the Brisbane crowd which will be full of fans thanks to this match being leg one of a double header.

Manly are attempting to rack up three consecutive wins for the first time this year and the Broncos could be about to face 2 straight losses for the first time. The Sea Eagles are aware that any team coming off a loss can be particularly dangerous and Coach Geoff Toovey knows that few are more dangerous than a Broncos side playing in QLD.

Manly lock Glenn Stewart will be ready to fire after he returned from injury last week and will also be looking to impress the right people into choosing him for State of Origin in 2 weeks.

Chance of winning: Broncos 46%, Sea Eagles 53%, Draw 1%

Mike’s Tip: Sea Eagles

Mike’s Suggested Bet: Manly Head to Head at around $1.80 looks like a sound bet. For a small wager I’ll take Glen Stewart as man of the match.

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans

Suncorp Stadium, 8:45pm (local).

BULLDOGS: Ben Barba, Jonathan Wright, Josh Morris, Tim Lafai, Bryson Goodwin, Josh Reynolds, Kris Keating, Aiden Tolman, Michael Ennis (c), Sam Kasiano, Frank Pritchard, Dene Halatau, Greg Eastwood. Interchange (from): James Graham, David Stagg, Corey Payne, Joel Romelo, Martin Taupau

TITANS: William Zillman, Kevin Gordon, Jamal Idris, Dominique Peyroux, David Mead, Aidan Sezer, Jordan Rankin, Luke Bailey (c), Matt Srama, Nate Myles, Greg Bird, Mark Minichiello, Ashley Harrison. Interchange (from): Matthew White, Luke Douglas, Luke O’Dwyer, Bodene Thompson, Phil Graham

The Titans are finding wins hard to come by in 2012 and a 3^rd win was looking likely in last week’s match against the Tigers when they fell agonisingly short in golden point. This week they go searching for that 3^rd win against the Bulldogs at Suncorp Stadium in the 2^nd leg of the Friday night double header.

The Bulldogs managed to thump another lacklustre looking Eels outfit last week and are looking good to do the same job this week unless the Titans can sort out their handling errors and put up a good fight.

These two sides met in Round 5 and although the Dogs won 30-20, they had to fight back after the Titans had them 10-0 down. Hopefully the Titans can draw from that positive experience and take this one down to the wire.

Chance of winning: Bulldogs 53%, Titans 46%, Draw 1%

Mike’s Tip: Bulldogs

Mike’s Suggested Bet: 1^st scoring play: Bulldogs try

SATURDAY

Warriors v Sydney Roosters

Mt Smart Stadium, 7:30pm (local).

WARRIORS: Jerome Ropati, Bill Tupou, Ben Henry, Konrad Hurrell,  Manu Vatuvei, James Maloney, Shaun Johnson, Russell Packer, Alehana Mara, Ben Matulino, Elijah Taylor, Simon Mannering (c), Feleti Mateo. Interchange: Lewis Brown, Ukuma Ta’ai, Sione Lousi, Jacob Lillyman.

ROOSTERS: Anthony Minichiello, Peni Tagive, Joseph ‘BJ’ Leilua, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Sam Perrett, Braith Anasta (c), Mitchell Pearce, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Jake Friend, Martin Kennedy, Aidan Guerra, Mitchell Aubusson, Tinirau Arona. Interchange (from): Boyd Cordner, Lama Tasi, Brad Takairangi, Mose Masoe, Jack Bosden.

The NRL heads across the ditch where the Warriors host the Roosters at Mt. Smart Stadium. The Warriors finally showed some top form last week when they did away with the Broncos 30-20 following a solid 80 minute performance.

The Roosters ground out a win against the Knights in Sydney but go into this match as $3.00 underdogs. This is largely due to the bookies that have been waiting all year for the Warriors to find the form that saw them reach the Grand Final in 2011. Whilst I think the Warriors can win this match, it will be a lot closer than many expect which to me makes the Roosters at the line a healthy betting prospect.

Let’s not forget that these two sides met in Round 5 and they Roosters won convincingly 26-8.

Chance of winning: Warriors 51%, Roosters 48%, Draw 1%

Mike’s Tip: Warriors

Mike’s Suggested Bet: Roosters +8.5 @ $1.90

Newcastle Knights v North Queensland Cowboys

Hunter Stadium, 7:30pm (local).

KNIGHTS: Darius Boyd, James McManus, Junior Sa’u, Timana Tahu, Akuila Uate, Jarrod Mullen, Tyrone Roberts, Kade Snowden, Matt Hilder, Evarn Tuimavave, Chris Houston (c), Zeb Taia, Neville Costigan. Interchange: Richie Fa’aoso, Willie Mason, Adam Cuthbertson, Alex McKinnon.

COWBOYS: Matthew Bowen, Ashley Graham, Brent Tate, Kane Linnett, Antonio Winterstein, Johnathan Thurston (c), Ray Thompson, Matthew Scott (c), Aaron Payne, James Tamou, Gavin Cooper, Tariq Sims, Dallas Johnson. Interchange: James Segeyaro, Ricky Thorby, Ashton Sims, Glenn Hall.

Following their 30-6 drilling of the Dragons last week, the Cowboys look like they may have finally hit their straps and will be eagerly seeking another victim to slay. That potential victim this week is the Newcastle Knights, a team that is not living up to expectations so far in 2012.

The history between the two sides is even with both having won 3 games from the last 6 encounters with the last 2 match ups being won by the away team, both of which were last year.

Based purely on form it’s hard to tip against the Cowboys given that the Knights are struggling to find themselves at the moment whereas the Cowboys look to be building momentum.

Chance of winning: Knights 47%, Cowboys 52%, Draw 1%

Mike’s Tip: Cowboys

Mike’s Suggested Bet: Cowboys head to head.

SUNDAY

Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels

Canberra Stadium, 2:00pm (local).

RAIDERS: Josh Dugan, Blake Ferguson, Jarrod Croker, Jack Wighton, Reece Robinson, Josh McCrone, Sam Williams, David Shillington (c), Travis Waddel, Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, Josh Papalii, Joel Thompson, Shaun Fensom. Interchange (from): Shaun Berrigan, Joe Picker, Sam Mataora, Dane Tilse, Bronson Harrison.

EELS: Jarryd Hayne, Luke Burt, Ryan Morgan, Cheyse Blair, Ken Sio, Casey McGuire, Chris Sandow, Tim Mannah, Matthew Keating, Fuifui Moimoi, Nathan Hindmarsh (c), Joseph Paulo, Matthew Ryan. Interchange: Taniela Lasalo, Mitchell Allgood, Justin Poore, Taulima Tautai

Sunday footy kicks off in the nation’s capital as the Raiders take on an Eels side that is under an enormous amount of pressure to perform. The Eels are strong favourites to take out the wooden spoon and it’s no wonder given the lack of effort they have shown in some games this year. They get a chance to score their 2^nd win of the year against a Raiders side that showed plenty of fight last week against the Sea Eagles before going down by just 6 points. Terry Campese’s replacement Sam Williams has shown he is more than capable of taking on the halfback role in the Raiders team and his decisions will make all the difference in this game.

In the last 8 match ups between these two, each team has won four of them.

Chance of winning: Raiders 55%, Eels 44%, Draw 1%

Mike’s Tip: Raiders

Mike’s Suggested Bet: None

Cronulla Sharks v Melbourne Storm

Toyota Stadium, 3:00pm (local).

SHARKS: Matthew Wright, Stewart Mills, Ben Pomeroy, Colin Best, John Williams, Todd Carney, Jeff Robson, Bryce Gibbs, Isaac De Gois, Ben Ross, Jeremy Smith, Jayson Bukuya, Paul Gallen (c). Interchange (from): Andrew Fifita, Wade Graham, John Morris, Sam Tagataese, Mark Taufua.

STORM: Billy Slater, Matt Duffie, Dane Nielsen, Will Chambers, Justin O’Neill, Gareth Widdop, Cooper Cronk, Jesse Bromwich, Cameron Smith (c), Bryan Norrie, Kevin Proctor, Ryan Hoffman, Todd Lowrie. Interchange (from): Ryan Hinchcliffe, Rory Kostjasyn, Siosaia Vave, Jason Ryles, Anthony Quinn.

It’s 1^st v 3^rd as top of the table Storm heading to the Shire to take on the Sharks who have enjoyed plenty of success in the opening 9 rounds.

The Sharks are probably the fairytale story so far this year and as much as I’d love to get onboard for this game, how does one tip against the Storm? They haven’t lost a game in the first 9 rounds and have scored over 40 points on 3 occasions already!

Key an eye on the team lists leading up to kick off as Sharks dynamo Paul is still just a 50/50 prospect of playing in this one due to a leg injury.

Chance of winning: Sharks 43%, Storm 56%, Draw 1%

Mike’s Tip: Storm

Mike’s Suggested Bet: This should be a low scoring game and i’ll be taking the ‘Unders’ option in ‘Over/Under’ betting.

MONDAY

Penrith Panthers v St George Illawarra Dragons

Centrebet Stadium, 7:00pm (local).

PANTHERS: Lachlan Coote, Etu Uaisele, Geoff Daniela, Brad Tighe, Josh Mansour, Blake Austin, Travis Burns, Sam McKendry, Kevin Kingston, Tim Grant, Cameron Ciraldo, Clint Newton, Luke Lewis (c). Interchange (from): Ryan Simpkins, Danny Galea, Dayne Weston, Matt Robinson, Chris Armit.

DRAGONS: Brett Morris, Daniel Vidot, Kyle Stanley, Matt Cooper, Jason Nightingale, Jamie Soward, Ben Hornby (c), Dan Hunt, Mitch Rein, Michael Weyman, Trent Merrin, Ben Creagh, Dean Young. Interchange: Nathan Fien, Jeremy Latimore, David Gower, Jack de Belin, Atelea Vea, Jake Marketo

Chance of winning: Panthers 39%, Dragons 60%, Draw 1%

Mike’s Tip: Dragons

Mike’s Suggested Bet: This should be a low scoring game and i’ll be taking the ‘Unders’ option in ‘Over/Under’ betting.

(Team lists sourced from nrl.com.au)

Season tally so far

Bets = 60 units
Won = 76.7 units
Profit/Loss = +16.7 units (27.8% profit)

CHEEKY WEEK 7 AFL MULTI

Andy’s bet: Hawthorn and North Melbourne to win by 25 points or more, Fremantle to win by 40 points or more and Carlton to win by 16 points or more @ 10.30 (Sportingbet)

Friday Night

Melbourne v Hawthorn

MCG
7.50pm AEST

Melbourne is still winless after 6 rounds but at least the Demons were competitive for two and a half quarters against Geelong last week, while Hawthorn snapped a two game losing streak to post an important win over St Kilda last Saturday night.

Hawthorn has a collection of stars players that can turn any match in the Hawks favour at any time. Forward line predators Cyril Rioli and Lance Franklin feasted for the Hawks last weekend and booted 11 goals between them as they terrorised the seemingly helpless Saints defenders. The brilliance of Rioli and Franklin perhaps overshadowed a worryingly leaky Hawthorn defence. In the absence of backline general Josh Gibson, the Hawks struggled to contain St Kilda’s tall forwards and were regularly outmarked with alarming ease by Justin Koschitzke and Nick Riewoldt.

In-form Melbourne spearhead Mitch Clark will look to expose Hawthorn’s defensive weakness on Friday night, although I don’t think he will get much joy as the Hawks should dominate in the midfield, meaning the ball will rarely end up in Clark’s part of the ground.

Hawthorn has not been in full flight so far in season 2012, but they’ve still got too much star power for a Melbourne team packed with mediocrity. The Hawks should win by at least 40 points.

Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Hawthorn to win by 40 points or more @ 1.55 (Sportsbet)

Saturday Afternoon

GWS Giants v Gold Coast Suns

Manuka Oval
1.40pm AEST

He’s back! Gold Coast’s ball getting master Gary Ablett returns from a fortnight on the sidelines due to a knee injury and the little master takes his place just in time for the Suns biggest game of the season. This is the first meeting between last season’s new boys and the fresh faces of this year, and because the teams are so different from every other AFL club, they will be continually measured against each other and an intense rivalry will be bred. In time, the AFL administration may hope this fixture is played out on Grand Final day, but for now it is last versus second last.

I saw GWS live at the ground last week and was very impressed with the fierce attack on the ball by the young Giants. GWS were more than competitive for most of the game against Premiership favourite Carlton before the rookies tired and injuries to key players took a toll. Those injuries will also have an effect on the upcoming contest against the Gold Coast as GWS ruckman Dean Brogan and tall forward Setanta o’Hailpin both miss this week with injuries incurred against the Blues.

Freezing cold conditions have been forecast for Saturday in Canberra, but the heat will be turned up within the playing field as both sets of players compete fiercely for the red sherrin. GWS have been strong with their clearance work so Gold Coast code hopper Karmichael Hunt will need to intimidate the young Giants at the stoppages and, as a sign of his progress since switching from Rugby to AFL only two years ago, Hunt is now a key to his side’s success.

Both teams have played some good stuff recently and this match is definitely winnable for either side. I’m siding with Gold Coast due to the return of Ablett, although I think GWS can keep the margin down.

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Gold Coast to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20 (Sportsbet, TAB Sportsbet)

Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats

AAMI Stadium
1.45pm AEST

Adelaide fans can genuinely look forward to watching their team play each weekend as Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett are capable of kicking bags of goals, while Paddy Dangerfield has graduated from cameo player to midfield matchwinner. The Crows away victory over the previously unbeaten Swans last Saturday night made the rest of the football world sit up, take notice and conclude the Crows are the real deal in 2012.

Geelong have been the real deal since 2007 and even though the Cats haven’t been at their best so far this campaign, Chris Scott’s men have still amassed 4 wins with a minimum of fuss. Midfield warrior and club captain Joel Selwood was rested from the Geelong team that secured a routine 7 goal win over Melbourne last weekend. Selwood’s return this week will allow for a great match up between he and Adelaide midfield supremo Scott Thompson.

There might be a great matchup in the middle, but it is within the forward 50m arcs where this game will be won and lost. Walker and Tippett will need to be at their best to break free from Geelong’s tall defensive trio of Matthew Scarlett, Tom Lonergan and Harry Taylor, while Cats big men Tom Hawkins and James Podsiadly will have Crow stoppers Ben Rutten and Daniel Talia for company. All of those fantastic matchups look to be fairly even, so I’m going with the Crows to win as they appear to have the dominant ruckman and a more in-form midfield brigade including new stars Dangerfield and Rory Sloane.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Adelaide to win by 39 points or less @ 2.90 (Centrebet, Sportingbet)

Richmond v Sydney Swans

MCG
4.40pm AEST

The Saturday twilight game is yet another match this round that involves the more seasoned team travelling interstate to face an up and coming challenger. Sydney probably exceeded expectations by winning their first 5 games of the season before they were finally humbled by Adelaide last week, while Richmond has managed a pair of comfortable wins against mediocre opposition balanced against four valiant defeats to the league’s top sides.

Sydney’s second half charge last weekend against Adelaide was inspired by the forward line dominance of Adam Goodes, but just when it appeared victory was within the Swans grasp, the champ was injured early in the final term halting Sydney’s momentum and the red and whites eventually lost by less than a goal. With Goodes on the sidelines this week, Sydney’s scoring power is significantly reduced and players like centre half-forward Sam Reid will need to increase their output. I’m not convinced Reid has enough confidence right now to step up and play that role.

Richmond’s win-loss ratio belies the improvement shown by the Tigers this season. Their performances against the top teams from last year have been ultra-competitive and only a lack of polish prevented them from taking a couple of big scalps. New recruit Ivan ‘the mullet’ Maric has been dominant in the ruck for Richmond, while Brett Deledio has relished a role that has seen the former number 1 draft pick spend more time roaming around the midfield. Dylan Grimes is another improver, with the youngster proving to be a reliable key defender. More consistency from full-forward Jack Riewoldt is the only cog missing from the Richmond machine.

This game will be a classic case of a team more suited to winning contested possessions against a side that prefers to use run and carry with uncontested possessions. Sydney lead the league in the contested possession count this season, while Richmond rank a lowly 17th in that statistic. Conversely, Richmond lead the uncontested possession count, with Sydney only 17th on that table. In 10 of the 13 matches at the MCG this year, the team that finished on top in the uncontested possession category won the match. The correlation between winning the contested possession count and the match has not been as strong with only 7 of 13 matches going in favour of the team that won the hard ball.

Given the above stats, I’m going to favour a Richmond win.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Richmond to win by 39 points or less @ 2.60 (Centrebet, Sportingbet)

Saturday Night

Essendon v West Coast Eagles

Etihad Stadium
7.40pm AEST

An early season epic is possible this Saturday night at Etihad Stadium as West Coast travel east with an unblemished record in 2012, while their hosts have stormed to 5 wins and a spot in the top 4. Following this match Essendon have a trio of very winnable games against Richmond, GWS and Melbourne, so a victory for the Bombers here would set up their season for an unexpected tilt at the top 4 come season’s end.

I am very excited about this game as I reckon it will be a full-on shootout! Despite a well-documented spate of injuries to forward line goalkickers, West Coast are still the league’s leading scorers, remarkably averaging over 120 points per game. Essendon has also been playing some enterprising footy, averaging a touch above 106 points during their games.

With a packed Etihad Stadium crowd roaring them on and further injury and suspension worries for the Eagles, I’m hopping on the red and black bandwagon and tipping a famous  Bomber win over the league leaders.

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Essendon to win by 39 points or less @ 2.40 (Centrebet, Sportingbet)

Brisbane Lions v Collingwood

Gabba
7.40pm AEST

For fans of Brisbane and Collingwood, this is one of the most anticipated matches of the season. A rivalry that dates back to successive grand finals played between the clubs during the early 2000’s often gets the best out of the Lions. Since midway through 2007, Brisbane has won half of the 6 matches they’ve played against Collingwood, and that has been during an era in which Collingwood have been a consistent top 4 team and the Lions a regular non-finalist.

Despite good recent form against the Pies, a win for Brisbane would still be a big surprise as Michael Voss’s men have only beaten winless duo Melbourne and Gold Coast during 2012. In their other 4 matches this season, the Lions have averaged less than 7 goals per game, proving they haven’t been able to find a way to kick a respectable score against the better teams. Collingwood’s defence seems to be back on track after a rocky start to the year. The Magpies, aided by the return to form and fitness of Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid and Heath Shaw, have not conceded more than 80 points in any of their past three matches.

Collingwood veteran Ben Johnson will miss most of the season after having shoulder surgery during the week and he joins fellow 2010 premiership players Luke Ball and Brent Macaffer on the long term injury list, with Andrew Krakouer, a grand final player last year, also out for the season.

Given the Magpies are without several key players, I can’t see this being a blowout and will tip the Pies in a fairly tight one. I also recommend chucking a few shekels on Collingwood ball magnet Dane Swan to top his most disposals group. Swan’s main competition will come from teammate Scott Pendlebury, however Pendlebury is likely to cop a tag from Brisbane’s Andrew Raines, making Swan a big chance to make use of a clearer path to the footy and find plenty of the footy.

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Collingwood to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Dane Swan for most disposals in Group A @ 2.25 estimate (Odds not fixed at time of writing)

Sunday Afternoon

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Etihad Stadium
1.10pm AEST

This match pits the entertainers against the, well, not so entertainers. Fixtures involving the Kangaroos have averaged 218 total points this season, by far the most in the league, while the Doggies rank alongside Fremantle and Brisbane as clubs that are involved in the lowest scoring matches.

Even though they lost, the Bulldogs actually managed to control large parts of their match against Collingwood last week, but the Doggies couldn’t manage to convert that dominance onto the scoreboard. The ageing Daniel Giansiracusa was the Dogs main target inside 50 during that game, and even though he kicked 3 goals, Giansiracusa is most effective playing as a small forward alongside a tall marking option. For this match, youngsters Ayce Cordy and Jordan Roughead have been named at full-forward and centre half-forward respectively, although I don’t see how the Doggies will kick a winning score given that pairing has managed a combined 9 goals from 28 career games.

Through Drew Petrie, Hamish McIntosh and Aaron Edwards, North have a plethora of tall marking targets that are capable of taking the game away from their opponents. If they can match the Bulldogs impressive midfield intensity, I can see the Roos bounding away to a comfortable win.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on North Melbourne to win by 25 points or more @ 2.25 (Centrebet, Sportingbet)

Fremantle Dockers v Port Adelaide

Patersons Stadium
4.40pm AEST

Fremantle have quickly gotten used to the Ross Lyon way! The Dockers have clearly adapted to the defensively focused game plan brought across by their new coach and sit 7th on the ladder with the 5th best defence using the measure of least points conceded. Port Adelaide coach Matthew Primus has been given a pasting in the Adelaide press during the week as his side has struggled to only 1 win from their first 6 matches. I think the criticism is quite unfair as Primus inherited a decimated list during late 2010 and needs to be given at least a couple of full years to bring some stability to the club.

The Dockers have recalled influential ruckman Aaron Sandilands from injury and his inclusion should be the catalyst for Fremantle to finally record a large victory. Power ruckman Brent Renouf is nowhere near the player Sandilands is, so I expect Freo’s ruck dominance to translate into a bunch of clearances for their midfielders. It should be one-way traffic and, with a spread of multiple goalkickers, I expect Freo to go close to winning by 10 goals.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Fremantle to win by 40 points or more @ 2.40 (Sportingbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Port Adelaide to score 60 points or less @ 3.75 (TAB Sportsbet)

Monday Night

St Kilda v Carlton

Etihad Stadium
7.40pm AEST

The now traditional Monday night fixture after Mother’s Day returns for 2012. Even though they won by over 60 points, Carlton suffered a bit of a letdown last week against the GWS as they rested senior players and struggled to put away their inexperienced opponents until the last quarter. Across town at the MCG, St Kilda were brave in their match against Hawthorn, but the Saints never really looked like winning as their defenders struggled to contain Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli.

St Kilda’s forward line towers Justin Koschitzke and Nick Riewoldt both looked incredibly dangerous in attack last weekend and Koschitzke’s form was particularly pleasing as the big man clunked marks in an aggressive manner not seen from him in a couple of years. The bad news for the Saints is that , with regular ruckman Ben McEvoy sidelined through injury, Koschitzke may now be required to do some around the ground ruckwork to help out fellow part-time ruckmen Rhys Stanley and Jason Blake.

The ruck is one part of the ground where Carlton are very strong, with Matthew Kreuzer a big presence and Shaun Hampson an ever-improving deputy. Chris Judd and Jarrad Waite are back from a week of rest and they should charge back in full of enthusiasm, bringing their teammates along with them for a relatively comfortable victory over a wounded opponent.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Carlton to win by 16 points or more @ 1.58 (TAB Sportsbet)

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The following are previews and betting tips for Round 12 of the 2012 Super Rugby competition.

The Brumbies were the only Australian side to pick up a win last week, which was a 23-6 home win against the Waratahs. The Australian conference remains the weakest of the three at this stage of the competition. In the overall standings the Brumbies sit third by virtue of topping the Australian conference, while the next best Australian side are the Reds in 9th place, eight points off a playoff spot. At the end of this round we will have reached the two-thirds stage of the tournament. Each week we’ll see more sides drop out of finals contention as the pressure mounts.

View the head-to-head form guide for the round.

Friday 11 May

Blues v Lions

5:35 PM AEST, Eden Park, Auckland

The two sides with the worst records in the competition square off when the 1-9 Blues host the 1-8 Lions. With a playoff spot all but written off, the Blues have only pride to play for, while the Lions arguably have a lot more at stake. The Southern Kings are due to enter the Super Rugby competition in 2013 to represent the Eastern Cape province, but it is not yet clear how they will be accommodated. One possibility is for the South African conference to be expanded to six teams. The other option is to eliminate one of the existing South African sides, so the wooden spoon in the South African conference this year could spell the end of that franchise’s place in Super Rugby.

The Blues again showed some promise in their 35-19 loss to the Hurricanes last week. They started well, showing vigour in attack and defence. The scrum was solid, they showed good patience in attack and Piri Weepu was consistent with the boot. The key aspects that let them down were their inability to secure kick-off ball and their loss of composure when they fell behind. The squad desperately lacks self-belief, but they do have enough individual quality to trouble most teams. The Blues have been hit by injury, however, with Tony Woodcock still out and Chris Lowrey, George Moala and Rene Ranger ruled out after picking up injuries against the Hurricanes.

The Lions put up a good fight against the Chiefs last week. They showed good continuity in attack and strength in the forwards. The Lions showed great willingness to throw the ball around and they turned down kickable penalties in both halves, so the 13 point score line flattered the Chiefs a bit. The Lions are still without the services of Butch James who is suspended.

Tip: Blues to win by 1-12

Betting: this game is difficult to predict given the mercurial nature of the Blues. Given the latest Blues injuries I’m going to back the Lions +11.5 at the line.

Waratahs v Bulls

7:40 PM AEST, Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney

The Waratahs 6-23 loss to the Brumbies last week means their playoff chances are hanging by a thread, especially in light of their tour of South Africa which starts next week. After a solid showing against the Crusaders in round 10 they put in an error-strewn performance against the Brumbies. They repeatedly put together good passages of play only to cough up possession and relieve pressure on their opposition. Their cause wasn’t helped by some soft defence either side of half-time to concede two tries. Some good news is they will welcome back Rob Horne, Chris Alcock and possibly Bernard Foley for this match. In other changes, Sarel Pretorius will start at the expense of Brendan McKibbin, while Daniel Halangahu will start at the expense of Tom Carter.

The Bulls currently top the South African conference but have the Stormers breathing down their neck just one point behind. They weren’t all that impressive last week, with the game very much in the balance until the last ten minutes when they overcame the Rebels 41-35. Morne Steyn put in another excellent performance. He was 100% with the boot and set up an excellent try for JJ Englebrecht. Pierre Spies looks a bit soft on defence. Worryingly for the Waratahs, the Bulls boast the highest average points per game (34.6), which is 5.8 points more than the second highest scoring team. If the Bulls can tighten their defence they will be an excellent chance to take this year’s title.

Tip: Bulls to win by 1-12

Betting: back the Bulls to win (1.90 odds with Centrebet)

Saturday 12 May

Highlanders v Hurricanes

5:35 PM AEST, Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

The Highlanders make the long trip home after picking up one win from two in South Africa. They currently sit 3rd in the New Zealand conference and, more importantly, they occupy the final playoff spot. They enjoyed plenty of possession last week in their 16-28 loss to the Sharks, but suffered injuries to Doug Tietjens, Elliot Dixon and Siale Piutau. Like last season, the Otago and Southland faithful will fear their side will run out of steam in the latter stages of the season. This fixture will provide a great insight into how well they will fare for the final third of the competition.

The Hurricanes will be pleased to have seen off the Blues after tough losses to the Chiefs and Crusaders. They remain very much in contention for a playoff spot, and could leapfrog the Highlanders this round. They lack a bit of strength in the forward pack, as shown by the Blues dominance at the scrum last week, but the Hurricanes are lethal in the backs. Andre Taylor continues to have an excellent season while Cory Jane and Conrad Smith are a constant menace. Expect them to play a high-tempo game to try and fatigue the travel weary Highlanders.

Tip: Hurricanes to win by 1-12

Betting: back the Hurricanes to win (2.30 odds with Centrebet). Again, keep an eye out on the odds for Tom Taylor to score a try.

Rebels v Crusaders

7:40 PM AEST, AAMI Park, Melbourne

The Rebels, now without James O’Connor and Danny Cipriani, showed good attacking flair last week in their narrow 35-41 loss to the Bulls. They showed plenty of spirit and enthusiasm, and were still very much in the contest in the final ten minutes. Kurtley Beale played well at No. 10. He showed what an explosive player he can be with a first-half line break to set up the Cooper Vuna try. Beale also showed good creativity and finesse, and was solid with the boot. The Crusaders put on an unconvincing performance as they snuck past the Reds 15-11 last week. They were kept tryless in a game that never really got into a rhythm, but they showed better composure than the Reds in the last ten minutes, which was the difference between the two sides. I don’t expect the Crusaders to have consecutive bad games, however, especially with Dan Carter and now Richie McCaw back in the starting squad. They may feel less pressure away from home, so the Rebels should brace themselves for this one. Just be aware that the Crusaders are resting Kieran Read, Israel Dagg and Andy Ellis.

Tip: Crusaders to win by 13+

Betting: back the Crusaders -13.5 at the line

Sunday 13 May

Sharks v Western Force

1:05 AM AEST, Kings Park, Durban

The Sharks enter this fixture full of confidence after seeing off the higher placed Highlanders 28-16 last week. Patrick Lambie scored all of their points, with a converted try and seven penalties from seven attempts. They sit 7th on the overall standings, just 3 points off the final playoff spot. The main issue for them at the moment is scoring points. They are currently ranked 10th in average points scored, which isn’t enough if they want to take the South African conference. The Force will feel unlucky to have lost to the Cheetahs in their 13-17 loss last week. They felt the referee gave them no favours and the Cheetahs seemed to have the rub of the green. With the Force sitting 16 points behind a playoff spot, that loss may have killed off their playoff chances. Kings Park is a tough venue for visitors, so I fancy the Sharks here.

Tip: Sharks to win by 13+

Betting: back the Sharks -11.5 at the line

Stormers v Cheetahs

3:10 AM AEST, Newlands Stadium, Cape Town

The Stormers enter this fixture on the back of a bye, and with their remaining fixtures at home, they will back themselves to win the South African conference. If they can get back to full fitness then they’ll back themselves to win this year’s title as well. Against the Force the Cheetahs looked only a shadow of the team they were before Johan Goosen got injured. His replacement Sias Ebersohn isn’t as strong with the boot and the side sorely misses Goosen’s flair on attack. I expect the Cheetahs to fade out of finals contention with the Stormers, Bulls and possibly the Sharks representing South Africa in the playoffs.

Tip: Stormers to win by 13+

Betting: back the Stormers -9.5 at the line

Reds v Chiefs

4:10 PM AEST, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

The Reds will be disappointed to have lost their composure in their 11-15 loss to the Crusaders last week. They were arguably the stronger side, but some silly errors in the last seven minutes enabled the Canterbury side to pick up six points and the victory. The Reds will have to refocus quickly, with a tough encounter against the Chiefs ahead of them. The Chiefs continue to pick up wins, with their 34-21 victory over the Lions their 9th on the trot. The side has a good balance to it, and who would have thought that a prop (Sona Taumalolo) would be the second top try scorer at this stage of the competition? Despite making squad rotations last week the Chiefs were fluid in attack and they look to be a well-drilled outfit. I think the Chiefs will be tougher opponents than the Crusaders were a week ago, so I’m tipping them to nick this one in a tight contest.

Tip: Chiefs to win by 1-12

Betting: back the Chiefs to win (1.80 with Centrebet)