The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 28 of the 2019/20 English Premier League.
Norwich vs. Leicester City
Back Leicester City in the head-to-head at 1.75 (Unibet)
Norwich have gone 1-2-6 as the home underdog this season while Leicester City have gone 8-1-1 as the away favourite over the last 12 months. Looking at the interactive EPL form guide, Norwich have gone 0-1-5 in their last six fixtures against strong opponents and 0-1-4 in their last six home fixtures against strong opponents. Leicester City meanwhile have gone 5-0-1 in their last six away fixtures against weak opponents. Looking at recent form, Norwich haven’t scored a goal in their last three fixtures and they conceded three goals last week against a Wolves side that had been struggling for goals themselves. Leicester have come through a rough patch of form but that has coincided with a tough fixture list. They showed enough in their tight defeat to Man City last week to suggest they should be too strong for Norwich.
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace
Back the draw at 3.30 (bet365)
This is a lesser known but still very feisty derby in which both sides will be desperate to avoid defeat. Both teams have been heavily involved in draws leading up to this clash. Crystal Palace have drawn 6 of their last 12 games while Brighton have drawn 7 of their last 12. It’s hard to pick either side to win this clash given Brighton have won just 1 of their last 12 games while Palace have won just 2 of their last 12.
Back the 1-1 correct score at 7.00 (bet365)
The two sides played out a 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park earlier in the season and based on the comparative forms of both sides, another 1-1 draw wouldn’t surprise me. Five of Brighton’s last six draws were by 1-1 scorelines, while four of Palace’s last five draws were by 1-1 scores.
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.69 (Betfair)
Brighton are ranked 6th in the league for having the most possession but they have lacked the finishing touch to score many goals of late. They have only scored more than one goal in 1 of their last 7 fixtures. Over the last 12 months only 5 of Brighton’s 19 home games have gone over 2.5 goals and their last five straight home fixtures have gone under 2.5. Crystal Palace have struggled for goals too, with the Eagles only scoring more than once in 1 of their last 8 games. Palace are currently the joint lowest scorers in the league. At the same time, both sides are decent defensively, with Brighton having the 11th best defensive record and Palace having the 6th best record. Only 2 of Palace’s last 14 games went over 2.5 goals.
Newcastle vs. Burnley
Back Burnley +0.5 at 1.57 (Betfair)
I wrote last week that Burnley are a streaky team and right now they are hot, bringing 4-1-0 form into this fixture. They have only conceded two goals in their last five fixtures whilst scoring nine. Newcastle limp into this fixture having not scored a goal in three matches. Their expected goals against Crystal Palace last week was just 0.16. Newcastle have won just 1 of their last 9 fixtures so I’ll take my chances with Burnley in the Asian handicap.
Watford vs. Liverpool
Back Liverpool in the head-to-head at 1.45 (Unibet)
Liverpool beat West Ham last round to equal the record of 18 consecutive league wins. The carrot for winning this fixture is the right to hold that record on their own. Liverpool have gone 16-2-0 away from home over the last 12 months and they have won their last 8 straight away fixtures. After an initial boost with a 4-1-1 run under Nigel Pearson, Watford have since gone 0-2-3 with two of their last three opponents scoring three times. Liverpool have won the last four straight meetings against Watford by a combined 15 goals to nil.