AFL Semi-finals Betting Tips

The following are betting tips for the semi-finals of the 2025 AFL season.

Last week, three home teams lost in Finals Week 1 for the first time in twelve years. The last two seasons in which that occurred were in 2013 and 2006. In both of those years, the semi-finals were won by the home sides. Will history repeat itself?

Close contests could be on the cards. In each of the last three seasons, every semi-final was won by 1-24 points.

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Adelaide (1) vs. (8) Hawthorn Friday, 7:40 PM AEST

 

Adelaide weather forecast: showers (3 to 15 mm) on Wednesday, shower or two (1 to 1 mm) Thursday, partly cloudy on Friday.

Adelaide became just the third top seed in the last 19 years to lose their qualifying final. They can take heart from the fact that, since 2000, six first seeds lost their qualifying final all six won their semi-final a week later. Over the last 25 years, the highest seeded loser from the qualifying finals has a 80% win record in the semi-finals. Adelaide also go into this game having won 11 of their 13 home games this season. A noteworthy statistic is Adelaide have gone 5-1 in both the head-to-head and the line on the back of a defeat this season.

What will make Crows fans nervous, however, is the fact that Izak Rankine remains suspended for the rest of the season and – like with Collingwood last week, Adelaide don’t have a strong record against Hawthorn. The Hawks have gone 6-3 against the Crows at Adelaide oval in recent years. This includes a 2-1 record as the away underdog. Another knock against Adelaide is they have failed to cover the line in their last four games. This suggests a dip in form at the worst possible time.

Hawthorn reached this round by upsetting GWS in Western Sydney, but overall, they haven’t been a great travelling underdog this season. The Hawks have gone 2-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months.

The two sides last met at Adelaide Oval on August 1st, which Adelaide won 101-87, despite Hawthorn taking a lead into the 4th quarter. Izak Rankine was instrumental in getting Adelaide get over the line in that game. In the fourth quarter alone he registered seven disposals, four contested possessions, five score involvements, two goals and one behind. Will Rankine’s absence be the difference this week?

Either way, history suggests this will be a close contest. Adelaide have yet to lose by 40+ this season, while eight of Hawthorn’s nine defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39. Ten of the last eleven meetings between the two at Adelaide Oval were settled by 1-39 points. Narrowing it down further, all six of the Crows’ defeats this season were by 1-24 margins. Since 2011, Adelaide’s three home wins over Hawthorn were by 1-24 margins. Six of Hawthorn’s eight away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-24 margins, while five of their six away wins were by 1-24. Over the past 25 years, the highest seeded loser of the qualifying finals never lost by more than 23 points in the semi-finals.

I would wager:
0.6 units on Adelaide 1-39 at 2.35 (PlayUp)
0.4 units on Hawthorn 1-24 at 3.55 (PlayUp)

Those looking for more risk should simply back Adelaide 1-39 or Adelaide 1-24 at 3.40 (PlayUp).

 

Brisbane (3) vs. (7) Gold Coast Saturday, 7:35 PM AEST

 

Brisbane weather forecast: sunny on Thursday, partly cloudy on Friday and possible shower (0 to 1 mm) on Saturday.

Brisbane have just the 10th best home record this season (7-4 in the head-to-head and 4-7 at the line), however they have won seven in a row at home against Gold Coast. This includes a 66-49 win in early May. The Suns more than repaid the favour, however, with a 130-64 win over the Lions at People First Stadium in late July.

While Brisbane did lose last week, Lions fans can take heart from the fact that the club has gone 5-1 in both the head-to-head and the line on the back of a defeat this season.

The Gabba has been a miserable hunting ground for the Suns. Gold Coast have a 2-13 record in Brisbane (1-11 as the away underdog). With the data I have at hand, the Suns failed to cover the line in 10 of their last 13 visits, including the last three.

Also against the Suns is the fact that they have gone 1-3 in both the head-to-head and the line as the away underdog this season.

Gold Coast can take heart from recent semi-finals history, however. Eight of the last eleven lower seeded losers from the qualifying finals went on to lose their semi-final.

As with the first semi-final, there is plenty to suggest that this will be a competitive contest. All seven of the Brisbane’s home wins this season were by 1-39 margins and six of the seven were by 1-24 margins. The Lions have only suffered one 25+ home defeat over the last twelve months. As for the Suns, seven of their eight defeats this season were by 1-39 margins and six of those were by 1-24 margins. The club has never beaten Brisbane by more than 14 at the Gabba. One interesting stat for semi-finals featuring the lower-seeded loser from the qualifying finals is that over the last 25 years, 22 of the games were won by 1-39 margins. Seventeen of the 25 games were settled by 1-24 margins.

I would wager:
0.65 units on Brisbane 1-39 at 2.25 (PlayUp)
0.35 units on Gold Coast 1-24 at 3.85 (PlayUp)

Those looking for more risk should simply back Brisbane 1-39 or Brisbane 1-24 at 3.30 (PlayUp).