The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 1 of the 2025 State of Origin Series.
2025 State of Origin Schedule
Game 1 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, 28 May, 8:05 PM AEST
Game 2 – Optus Stadium, Perth
Wednesday, 18 June, 6:05 PM AWST / 8:05 PM AEST
Game 3 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday, 9 July, 8:05 PM AEST
State of Origin History
Below are the State of Origin results since 2005. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.
| Year | Winner | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 24-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 32-22 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-32 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2006 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 17-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 14-16 QLD (Melbourne) |
| 2007 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 25-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 4-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2008 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 18-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-0 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2009 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 28-18 NSW (Melbourne) |
NSW 14-24 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 16-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2010 | QLD 3-0 |
NSW 24-28 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-23 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2011 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 16-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-24 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2012 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 16-12 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 21-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2013 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 14-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-12 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2014 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 8-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 32-8 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2015 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-11 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-26 NSW (Melbourne) |
QLD 52-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2016 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 4-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2017 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 4-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 16-18 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2018 | NSW 2-1 |
NSW 22-12 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2019 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 18-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 6-38 NSW (Perth) |
NSW 26-20 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2020 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 14-18 QLD (Adelaide) |
NSW 34-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 20-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2021 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 6-50 NSW (Townsville) |
QLD 0-26 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 20-18 NSW (Gold Coast) |
| 2022 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
NSW 44-12 QLD (Perth) |
QLD 22-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2023 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 26-18 NSW (Adelaide) |
QLD 32-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 24-10 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2024 | NSW 2-1 |
NSW 10-38 QLD (Sydney) |
NSW 38-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
QLD 4-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
Home advantage has been historically important. The Blues have won four of the last six games at Accor Stadium, while the Maroons have won 14 of the last 18 at Suncorp Stadium.
On neutral soil Queensland won all three meetings between 2006 and 2012. NSW have since won four of the last six between 2015 and 2024.
Home advantage has been historically important. The Blues have won four of the last six at Accor Stadium, while the Maroons have won six of the last eight at Suncorp Stadium.
On neutral soil, NSW have won five of the last seven since 2015.
2025 State of Origin Game 1 Squads
Queensland
1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Valentine Holmes, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Moeaki Fotuaika, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11. Reuben Cotter, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Tom Dearden, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Beau Fermor, 17. Trent Loiero
18th man: Kurt Mann
Coach: Billy Slater
1. Reece Walsh, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Tom Dearden, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Reuben Cotter, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Lindsay Collins, 11. Jaydn Su’a, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Moeaki Fotuaika, 16. J’maine Hopgood, 17. Selwyn Cobbo
18th man: Felise Kaufusi
Coach: Billy Slater
Coach Billy Slater has responded to last year’s series defeat by handing debuts to Robert Toia (Roosters), Beau Fermor (Titans) and Trent Loiero (Storm).
Tom Gilbert, Reece Walsh and Ben Hunt are notable absentees due to injury.
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Cameron Munster are two notable returners after they missed the 2024 campaign with injury.
New South Wales
1. Dylan Edwards, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Latrell Mitchell, 5. Zac Lomax, 6. Mitchell Moses, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Mitchell Barnett, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton, 13. Isaah Yeo (c)
Interchange: 14. Connor Watson, 15. Spencer Leniu, 16. Hudson Young, 17. Max King
18th man: Matt Burton
Coach: Laurie Daley
New South Wales begin life under yet another new head coach after Michael Maguire left to join the Brisbane Broncos. His one-year tenure saw NSW win the 2024 series 2-1. This ended a two-series winning streak for Queensland. Laurie Daley has now taken the helm. Daley was previously the Blues coach from 2013–17. Despite winning three Game 1’s during his five-year tenure, NSW lost four of those five series. The Blues had a 6-9 win-loss record during Daley’s prior tenure.
Daley has opted for Mitchell Moses over Jarome Luai to partner Nathan Cleary in the halves. This will be the injury-hit Cleary’s first Origin appearance since Game 1 of 2023.
Dylan Edwards gets the start at fullback at the expense of James Tedesco.
Stephen Crichton and Payne Haas have been named despite injury clouds. Regular Blues captain Jake Trbojevic is a notable absentee due to concussion. Mitchell Barnett will start as prop in his absence and Isaah Yeo will captain the team. Tom Trbojevic will miss his fifth consecutive Origin game due to injury.
Bulldogs forward Max King is poised to make his Origin debut off the bench.
Suncorp Stadium Stats
Since 2010, Queensland have gone 14-4 at Suncorp Stadium. The Maroons have won six of the last eight games at this venue, however the Blues won the series decider at this venue last year. It was their first series decider win in Brisbane since 2005.
Games at Suncorp Stadium have averaged just 30.0 total points since 2017. Eight of the nine games in that period ranged between 26 and 38 points, while last year’s series decider at this venue saw just 18 points.
Game 1 Stats
There is a recent trend for Queensland to dominate Game 1 and for NSW to dominate Game 2:
Queensland have won 5 of the last 6 Game 1s
NSW have won 6 of the last 7 Game 2s
The average total score for Game 1 has picked up in recent years. From 2011 to 2016, the average total score for Game 1 was just 21.2, with none of those six games going above 28. Since 2017, the average total score for Game 1 is 38.0, with only one game finishing below 32. Three of the last four Game 1’s saw 44+ points.
This is the first Game 1 to be played at Suncorp Stadium since 2019. The two most recent Game 1’s at Suncorp Stadium both saw 32 total points.
Weather forecast
At the time of writing the Brisbane weather forecast for Wednesday is:
Min: 14
Max: 23
5% chance of any rain
“Partly cloudy. Winds west to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h becoming westerly 15 to 25 km/h in the early morning then becoming west to southwesterly and light in the middle of the day.”
Bookmaker promotions
Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW, SA & and WA residents).
Draftstars have a $40,000 fantasy sports contest for State of Origin Game 1. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Futures Betting
For those looking to bet on the series market, the last 14 series were won by a 2-1 score. Looking back further, 21 of the last 22 years were won by a 2-1 scoreline. Each and every year we recommend the following pair of series score wagers:
NSW 2-1 at 2.25 (bet365)
QLD 2-1 at 3.25 (next2go)
Given the firmer odds for NSW 2-1, one suggestion is 0.4 units staked on NSW 2-1 and 0.6 units staked on QLD 2-1.
Game 1 Betting
Compare bookmaker odds for State of Origin Game 1.
Head-to-head
At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 1 are:
QLD: 2.40 (PlayUp)
NSW: 1.66 (Bet Right)
The even odds lines are currently set at 2.5 and 3.5, depending on the bookmaker.
It’s easy to make the case that New South Wales have the better squad, however Queensland always seem to be more than the sum of its parts, plus Laurie Daley doesn’t have a winning record in Origin. Two statistical factors in Queensland’s favour are:
Queensland have won five of the last six Game 1’s
Queensland have won six of the last eight at Suncorp Stadium
If I had to bet on this market I would take the value offered on Queensland.
Winning Margin
18 of the last 21 Game 1’s were won by 1-10 points. The average margin was 9.0 across those years and the median was just 6.0. The caveat to those stats is two of the last four Game 1’s were won by 28+ points.
Queensland have won five of the last six Game 1’s and four of those wins were by 4-8 points, so if I had to bet on this market I would take Queensland 1-12 at 3.70 (BoomBet).
Total Score
After a period of low scoring Game 1 fixtures between 2011 and 2016, which averaged just 21.2 points, the average total score for Game 1 since has been 38.0, with a median of 33.0. Three of those seven games had a total of exactly 32 points.
The last two Game 1’s played in Brisbane both saw 32 total points. The average total score at Suncorp Stadium since 2017 is 30, with no game going above 38.
Most bookmakers have the total set at 39.5. Only three of the last 14 Game 1’s went over 34, however that includes three of the last four series openers.
With Laurie Daley back at the helm for NSW, my lean is towards a lower scoring game. During his 2013-17 tenure, the Game 1 total scores were:
2013: 20
2014: 20
2015: 21
2016: 10
2017: 32
If I were to bet on the total score I would take Under 39.5 at 1.95 (next2go).
Same-game Multi
Beau Fermor has scored four tries in his last five games for the Titans. He starts from the bench, but is one of the better value anytime try scorer selections at 6.50.
Valentime Holmes has scored 6+ points in four of this last five Origin appearances.
Using those two stats and the total & winning margins stats above, I have placed a small same-game multi with Dabble at 42.46 odds.
– Beau Fermor anytime try scorer
– Under 50.5
– Maroons 1-12
– Valentine Holmes to score 6+ points
Best Bet
My best bet is to back each team to win the series by a 2-1 score. This has won in each of the last fourteen years.
0.4 units on NSW 2-1 at 2.25 (bet365)
0.6 units on QLD 2-1 at 3.25 (next2go)