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  • General 30.08.2010 No Comments

    After the News of the World uncovered the latest cricket betting scandal, I wonder whether bookmakers should simply cease providing betting markets regarding Pakistani cricket for the foreseeable future.

    For those who haven’t already heard, the News of the World met up with a match fixer posing as representatives of a Far East Gambling cartel. After paying the fixer £150,000, they were informed of three intentional no balls to be bowled in the Test against England on Thursday and Friday at Lord’s. The fixer claimed to have seven Pakistani cricketers in his pocket who were accepting payments from bookies and betting syndicates.

    Sure enough, the no balls were delivered exactly as promised. The photo below illustrates one of the no balls that were bowled by Amir. He certainly made sure the Umpire would ping him for it!

    To make matters worse, the match fixer claimed that the SCG test in January was also rigged. Pakistan lost their last nine wickets for 89 runs to give Australia a sensational victory. This leads one to assume that most of Pakistan’s recent fixtures have involved rigging on some level or another.

    With the Pakistani cricketers continuing to play on low salaries (I’ve heard figures of $35,000 per year for some players), you can imagine they will always be tempted to accept funds to deliver on certain actions, especially when such actions involve only one player. Short of banning Pakistani cricket altogether, perhaps bookmakers should be forced to cease accepting wagers on any market concerning the Pakistani team. To send a message to fellow players, I hope that those who are found to have cheated are hit with lengthy bans.

    Sources:

Bet with the Best!
  • General 27.08.2010 No Comments

    The NRL is investigating suspicious betting activity on the fixture between the Cowboys and the Bulldogs last Saturday.

    Virtually every bookmaker closed betting on the first scoring play after a surge in bets on a penalty goal for the Cowboys. This is typically not a popular bet. It is also a high odds bet, with odds typically around 12.00 to 13.00 for a home team penalty goal.

    For the Cowboys vs. Bulldogs fixture the TAB Sportsbet odds plunged from 13.00 to 7.00 after bets started pouring in on Thursday. Sports Alive closed its market after a punter tried to wager $1000 at 8.00 odds. The most drastic odds drop may have occurred at Centrebet, where they fell from 13.00 to 3.00.

    Ironically, the bet lost! This is despite the fact that the Cowboys were awarded an absolute sitter of a penalty right in front of the posts only nine metres out. The Cowboys opted instead for a quick tap and scored out wide to open the scoring. I’m sure the players who committed the penalty will be under investigation.

    I would be interested to hear what happened at Betfair, where you can bet both for and against each outcome. I would love to lay a bet against a home team penalty goal at odds of 3.00!

    This is the first case I’ve seen where the dubious betting concerned a losing bet. With the Briggs boxing scandal and the Davydenko match the heavily backed outcome won. I’m sure the fact that the Cowboys were awarded an easy penalty opportunity will be one of the motivations for the enquiry.

    Source:
    - SMH – NRL investigates ‘inordinate’ betting plunge on penalty goal market

  • With the Australian Federal election tomorrow, now is your final chance to place your bets!

    Below are some of the latest odds. Please note that these odds could change quickly and radically. These odds are accurate as of 5:17 PM on August 20th. Also, as a warning, Sportsbet currently offers odds on who will be PM at the 2013 Federal Election, which some punters may misinterpret as the winner of the 2010 election. These bets won’t pay out for years!

    Note that an arbitrage opportunity exists! Provided the odds don’t move, you can profit by betting against a hung parliament with Centrebet and for a hung parliament with Sportingbet. Remember, an arbitrage opportunity exists whenever the reciprocals of the odds sum to less than one. In this case 1/3.00 + 1/1.64 = 0.943. Use the arbitrage calculator to calculate your strategy. Note that you are exposed to some risk, because a bookmaker may reject your bet or change the odds after you have placed a bet with the other agency. Update: Sportingbet has shortened its odds, but the arbitrage opportunity still exists, so you better be quick!

    Australian Federal Election – Winner

      Labor Party     Coalition
    Sportsbet 1.45 2.75 (any other party)
    Sportingbet 1.48 2.60
    Centrebet 1.48 2.62
    Luxbet 1.50 2.55
    Sports Alive     1.48 2.60
    IASbet 1.45 2.75 (any other party)

     

    Hung Parliament

      Yes No
    Sportsbet 2.90 1.37
    Sportingbet 3.00 1.35
    Centrebet 2.15     1.64
    Luxbet N/A N/A
    Sports Alive      N/A N/A
    IASbet N/A N/A

     

  • General 12.08.2010 2 Comments

    With the English Premier League due to kick off this weekend, here is a preview the bookmaker odds for the 2010/11 season.

    Winner

    Chelsea is this year’s favourite, followed by Manchester United. Most bookmakers have Manchester City as having a better chance of winning than Arsenal, although Arsenal has shorter odds of the two at Betfair.

    Below are the winner odds at the time of writing. The best available odds for each outcome are highlighted in bold (after accounting for Betfair fees).

      Chelsea    Man Utd    Arsenal    Man City    Liverpool    Tottenham   
    bet365 2.62 3.25 6.50 6.50 13.00 34.00
    Betfair 2.92 3.40 7.00 8.20 15.50 38.00
    Canbet 2.75 3.20 6.00 7.00 12.00 34.00
    Centrebet 2.35 3.00 7.00 6.00 12.00 34.00
    Sportsbet 2.70 3.40 7.00 6.00 13.00 34.00
    Sportingbet 2.50 3.50 7.50 5.50 13.00 34.00
    William Hill 2.62 3.40 7.00 5.50 15.00 26.00
    Luxbet 2.65 3.25 6.00 5.50 14.00 36.00
    Sports Alive 2.55 3.25 7.00 5.25 14.00 26.00
    IASBet 2.70 3.40 7.00 6.00 13.00 34.00
    TAB Sportsbet    2.50 3.25 7.00 6.00 10.00 26.00

     

    Month End Top for August

    Betfair offers a market for the top team at the end of August. Due to the drop in predictability over a shorter period of time, the likes of Tottenham (14.00), Manchester City (14.00), Aston Villa (21.00) and Liverpool (17.00) provide decent value. I haven’t done so myself, but it would be worth looking at the fixtures list over this period.

    Relegation

    Blackpool is the favourite to be relegated. One bookmaker offers odds of 1.01 for Blackpool to end in the bottom ten. This is a ridiculous bet because the wager won’t settle until May next year. A 1% return from August to May is far less than you could get risk-free in an online savings account in Australia. Heck, if I was a bookmaker I would happily offer 1.01 odds on Blackpool to still be located in England by May next year. You should always consider the time value of money when making betting decisions on events that don’t settle for a considerable amount of time.

  • General 06.08.2010 No Comments

    Launched in April 2010, Galileo Managed Sports Fund is apparently the world’s first sports betting hedge fund. The company is aiming to acquire €50 million in invested funds, with a minimum buy in of €100,000. The fund aims to deliver 15-25% returns per annum after fees.

    The hedge fund’s strategy is to bet on sporting markets where they feel they have a comparative advantage. This advantage is attained using proprietary computer models. The fund looks for sports markets where emotions impact the odds. They also target markets where they can undertake more research on the teams than the bookmakers. Most of the trading takes place during live games. The fund always designates odds at which it will pull out prior to placing any bets.

    Galileo’s managing director estimates he’s making $400 per hour as a sports trader. The fund employs five traders and four analysts, all of whom have some finance background.

    All I can say is, good luck to them! Time will tell whether they can deliver consistent returns that adequately compensate their investors for the fund’s risk. Much of the risk for investors stems from the uncertainty over how risky the fund actually is! With equity and property you can view historical returns, and use measures like value at risk, standard deviation, etc., to measure risk. With a fund like this, however, investors have no fund performance history with which to do this.

    Another issue for me is liquidity. Due to limited market depth on many sports markets on exchanges such as Betfair, the more funds that are under management, the more limited the sports betting options. This may lead to a drop in the percentage of funds that can be wagered at any given time. As a fund manager in a sports betting market, it’s much easier to deliver a target return with $100,000 of funds under management than a million.

    The major upside of a fund like this, however, is its performance will have no correlation with the stock market, commodity prices, property prices, or any other alternative investment. This will certainly appeal to investors who are looking to diversity their portfolio.

    I wonder when Australia will have its first sports betting hedge fund? Any prospective entrant will be hoping that Galileo can prove successful to help them woo local investors. So, watch this space!

    Source:
    - Business Week – A League of Their Own

  • General 29.07.2010 No Comments

    With the 2010/11 English Premier League Football season due to start in August, now is the perfect time to set up your fantasy team.

    My favourite fantasy site by a country mile is http://fantasy.premierleague.com/. It is the official fantasy game for the League, and it’s free to join. The aim of the game is to accrue as many points as possible based on individual player performance each week.

    The game allows you to select two goal keepers, five defenders, five midfielders, and three strikers. Each week you select a starting eleven, along with your substitute priority for the bench players. The starting eleven can take the formation of your choosing, within reasonable limits. Should any of your starting eleven not make their team sheet that week, the game will automatically make an appropriate substitution for you. I recommend you don’t fill your bench with cheap players, because you will frequently encounter weeks where certain teams aren’t participating due to UEFA fixtures, etc. You will also have weeks where some teams play twice to make up games for weather postponements.

    You select your players with a budget cap of 100.0 units, so your average player will cost 6.67 units. At the time of writing, the most expensive player is Frank Lampard, with a price tag of 13.0, while the cheapest players cost 4.0. As an additional restriction, you can select no more than three players from any Premier League team. Each week you choose one of your players to be the team captain. For that chosen player you receive double their number of points for that round.

    Based on demand and performance, player prices rise and fall during the season. Typically, my team will end the season with a combined value of 110.0. You can make changes to your squad each round. Participants are given one free transfer each week, and two wildcards that enable you to make unlimited changes without incurring any points penalties. One wildcard can be used whenever you want, and the other can only be used during a certain window mid-season. If you transfer more than one player, and don’t use a wildcard, you are charged 4 points per additional transfer.

    The scoring system is one of the reasons I like this fantasy game. It is based on numerous statistics, which vary depending on the player’s position. Below is an outline of the point scoring.

    Action Points
    For playing in a game 1
    For playing at least 60 minutes in a game (includes playing points mentioned above) 2
    For each goal scored by your goalkeeper or defenders 6
    For each goal scored by your midfielders 5
    For each goal scored by your forwards 4
    For each goal assist 3
    For your goalkeeper / defender conceding 0 goals (must play at least 60 mins)    4
    For your midfielder conceding 0 goals (must play at least 60 mins) 1
    For every 3 shot saves made by your goalkeeper 1
    For every penalty save 5
    For every penalty miss -2
    Bonus points for the best players in a match 1-3
    For every 2 goals conceded by your goalkeeper or defenders -1
    For every yellow card -1
    For every red card (includes any yellow card points) -3
    For every own goal -2

     

    Halfway during the season all participants above a certain rank are placed into an FA Cup style tournament, where you are given a random opponent each week. The member with the highest score that weekend advances to the next round, and the loser is eliminated. I always seem to get a heavyweight first round in this tournament, but hopefully I can improve on that this season.

    You can create and join leagues with your friends, and you can monitor your global rank against all players. The global rank can be broken down by the team you support and the country you live in. In my best year, I made the top 50 for Australian members, although I haven’t achieved anything close to that in a while.

    So have a go, and best of luck! You can find some good squad selection tips with their resident pundit.

  • General 22.07.2010 No Comments

    The sports wagering industry fears that Briggs’ first round loss to Danny Green last night was premeditated.

    Paul Briggs went down 29 seconds into the first round of his IBO cruiserweight title fight with Danny Green last night in Perth. Centrebet spokesman Neil Evans called the outcome “highly, highly dubious” after hundreds of bets were made on a first or second-round knockout in the morning and afternoon prior to the fight. He added, ”we’ve never ever in the history of boxing seen so much money go on a specific decision outcome, as in a first or second-round knockout.” One punter bet $50,000 with Centrebet, which is almost unheard of for such a high odds bet. Centrebet odds started at around 5.00 but fell to 2.00 as a result of heavy betting.

    Dubious betting activity was also recorded on Sportsbet. Odds for Green to knock-out Briggs in the first round shortened from 7.00 to 2.00 after a ten minute period of significant betting activity. One punter tried to place $10,000 on a first-round knockout, but was turned down because Sportsbet deemed the bet to be suspicious.

    Danny Green appeared to be furious at the result, and apologised to the crowd. He promised that Paul Briggs would not be paid for his appearance.

    Apparently Sportsbet will pay all winning bets and refund all losing bets, which is disappointing. I think that for suspicious activity on any level, bookmakers should refund all bets, win or lose.

    Betting scandals are by no means new to sport. In 2007 Davydenko retired hurt from a match against Martin Vassallo Arguello . Prior to his retirement a huge number of bets on his opponent poured into Betfair. Over ten times the usual amount had been bet on the fixture, which forced Betfair to void all bets. Some other recent betting controversies include horse racing in Australia, sumo wrestling in Japan, Starcraft in Korea, and football in Europe.

    There are numerous opponents to online sports betting, and scandals such as this don’t help the industry’s cause. I hope the sports betting industry and the IBO get to the bottom of what happened, and punish anyone who is proved to be involved in cheating. Ideally, every punter who placed $10,000 or more on the fixture should be questioned. The precedent should be set that it’s not worthwhile to attempt results rigging. If the only outcome is some bets are refunded, then this will only send the message that you need to smarter next time you cheat.

    Update

    Boxing writer and commentator Paul Upham has defended Briggs, saying the knock he took to the head was actually worse than it looks. Even if he’s right, it will be interesting to see everyone’s interpretation of the betting activity prior to the fight.

    Sources:
    - SMH – ‘He’s a dog and he’s not getting paid’
    - SMH – Briggs’ 29-second fiasco has bookies fearing a fix
    - BBC – Davydenko faces betting inquiry
    - Wikipedia – Betfair

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  • General 27.06.2010 No Comments

    Now that we’ve completed the group stage of the World Cup, here are some betting agency news and updates.

    Bet365
    For the outright winner market, all losing bets from penalty shoot outs will be refunded, which is something to keep in mind when you compare odds with other bookmakers. England have a consistent track record of being eliminated through penalties in major tournaments.

    Luxbet
    It is not too late to grab a free football jersey for the World Cup team of your choosing. Click here to take advantage of the promotion.

    Sportsbet
    Sportsbet has refunded any bets on Australia to win the World Cup because they felt the two red cards Australia received were unfair!

    Chile and Paraguay are two dark horses in this tournament. Chile only just came second behind Brazil in qualifying, while Paraguay beat Chile, Brazil and Argentina during their qualification campaign. The South American teams are all looking strong this tournament. At the time of writing, with Betfailr you can get 1.98 odds on a South American team to win the tournament, which I think is pretty good value.

  • General 22.06.2010 No Comments

    With the first two rounds of the Group Stage complete, there have been numerous changes to the odds on the FIFA 2010 World Cup winner. Because Betfair usually provides the best odds for tournament winners, the following figures are based on the Betfair odds. Note that Betfair caps odds at 1000-1, so for the tournament minnows you are better off placing bets with other bookmakers. For example, at the time of writing, bet365 is offering 1501-1 odds on Slovakia and 2001-1 odds on Honduras.

    Below are some selected odds changes:

          Pre-World Cup     Now
    Spain   5.00   6.20
    Paraguay   120.00   42.00
    Australia   140.00   1000.00
    South Africa   120.00   1000.00
    England   7.00   13.00
    South Korea   500.00   200.00
    Japan   770.00   320.00
    New Zealand   1000.00   1000.00

     

    Despite technically still being in with a chance of getting through to the next stage, New Zealand and Australia are both considered to be as good as eliminated. Paraguay could prove to be a real dark horse in the tournament. If all goes as expected, they would play Japan or Denmark in the round of 16, which I would back them to win. Paraguay defeated Brazil, Argentina and Chile during their qualifying campaign.

    South Africa has endured the largest rise in betting odds. They are on track to be the first ever World Cup hosts to be eliminated in the group stage. Fingers crossed they can avoid that fate. According to the BBC, some of the French stars may boycott the game against South Africa! I don’t recall what the odds were on France at the beginning of the tournament, but the odds are now 160-1 for them to win. To rub salt into the wound, French Sports Daily, L’Equipe, predicted prior to the tournament that New Zealand would fail to score a goal. With two games completed and France yet to score a goal themselves, they must be feeling sheepish.

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