## The Gini Coefficient as a Measure of League Competitiveness and Title Uncertainty

We test whether the Gini coefficient can be used as a measure of league competitiveness. Does a lower value indicate more uncertainty in a title race? Did the Gini coefficient predict that Leicester City could win the English Premier League?

## Arbitrage Using Boosted Odds Promotions

With so many bookmakers offering boosted odds, particularly for the AFL and NRL, it’s worth going over the arbitrage opportunities that these promotions create. This article illustrates how to make biased and unbiased arbitrage plays using boosted odds promotions. Examples…

## Online Sports Betting: Important Considerations

When you decide to engage in online sports betting, it is important to consider the methods and impacts that could arise from engaging in this activity. We look at a few considerations.

## Model Testing – Measuring Forecast Accuracy

When developing a betting model it is important to properly measure its performance. Having a formal measure of performance is important because it provides a benchmark with which to test alternative models. Obviously, when using a model for betting a…

## Model Testing – Measuring Profit & Loss

When developing a betting model it is important to properly measure its performance. Having a formal measure of performance is important because it provides a benchmark with which to test alternative models. Obviously, when using a model for betting a…

## Post-Sample Evaluation – the Importance of Creating a Holdout Set before Calibrating a Betting Strategy

Introduction Most betting models use historical data to predict the future. In fact, at its core, sports betting is the act of forecasting sporting results. Bookmakers rely heavily on historical results to set the odds while enthusiast punters interpret the…

## Bookmaker Membership Combinations That Reduce Bookmaker Margins

Those of you who are familiar with the mathematics of sports betting will know that bookmakers fund their services through bookmaker margins. Margin are effectively hidden transaction fees which provide the bookmaker’s profit margins for betting markets. For example, a…

## Obtaining Better Value by Creating Draw No Bet and Double Chance Markets Using Head-to-Head Odds

With football betting the three popular match outcome markets are Head-to-Head, Draw No Bet and Double Chance. The three are interconnected, so much so that you can effectively create Draw No Bet and Double Chance wagers using a pair of…

## How to Calculate Your Own Ratings

Using the NRL futures market as an example, this article illustrates how to assign ratings to teams and to use those ratings to make betting decisions.

## What is Dutch Betting?

An overview of Dutch Betting and how to apply it.