The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 15 of the 2025 AFL season.
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Draftstars have a $50,000 fantasy sports contest for the Fremantle vs. Essendon clash on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Fremantle vs. Essendon |
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Fremantle played their ‘away’ game against North Melbourne last week at Optus Stadium, so they have not had to do any travelling. The Dockers almost face-planted in that game, which should have knocked any complacency out of them. They now take on Essendon, a side that has only covered the line in two of its last eight away games against the Dockers. Essendon have a 2-7 head-to-head record as the away underdog against the Dockers in recent years. Fremantle bring a four-game winning streak into this game, while Essendon have lost four consecutive away games. Fremantle’s 1.19 head-to-head odds look too short, so I will opt for the winning margin market. You have to go back to 2016 for the last time that Essendon lost by 40+ to Fremantle in Perth. Essendon have suffered some heavy defeats this season, such as the one last week, but the Bombers have a habit of putting in a much more competitive performance in the following round. I would back Fremantle 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble). Those looking for less risk should consider Essendon +39.5 at 1.50 (bet365).
Other markets of interest are the first two quarters and the first half. Fremantle have gone 4-1 in both the first quarter and first half at home this season, while Essendon have gone 1-6 in both the first quarter and first half away from home. Essendon have been particularly bad in the first quarter. In eight of the nine instances where they trailed after the first quarter, their opponent’s lead was 13+. In the second quarter, however, Fremantle have gone 2-3 at home, while Essendon have gone 5-2 away from home. For this reason, Fremantle to win the first quarter at 1.37 is arguably a safer bet than Fremantle to win the first half at 1.25. When this is paired with the above bets, two same-game multi candidates are:
Fremantle to win the first quarter / Fremantle 1-39 at 2.90 (bet365)
Fremantle to win the first quarter / Essendon +38.5 at 2.50 (Dabble)
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Geelong vs. Brisbane |
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Brisbane boast an excellent 4-1 head-to-head and 5-0 line record as the away underdog over the last twelve months, however the Lions have lost thirteen consecutive games at GMHBA Stadium – a losing streak that goes back to 2004. Geelong bring a five-game winning streak into this clash, while Brisbane have won just two of their last six. I don’t expect a blowout, however. Brisbane have not suffered a defeat by 25+ away from home over the last twelve months. I would back Geelong 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider Geelong 1-24 at 3.30 (Dabble).
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Carlton vs. North Melbourne |
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This fixture has a history of going over the bookmaker’s total, however their clash this week will be played at the MCG rather than at Marvel Stadium. Carlton have averaged 142.8 total points at the MCG this season. This has seen all six of their games at this venue go under the total. North Melbourne’s previous MCG fixture this season saw 152.0 total points. The injury-hit Blues will be without Harry McKay for this game while fellow forward Charlie Curnow is also in doubt. As the listed home side, eight of Carlton’s ten games over the last twelve months went under the total. North Melbourne’s last six games coming into this game went under the total. I would back Under 174.5 at 1.50 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Under 165.5 (Bet Right).
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Port Adelaide vs. Sydney |
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This is primarily a bet against Sydney. The Swans have gone 1-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months and they have lost their last five away games against Port Adelaide. The Power, for their part, have gone 6-2 as the home favourite over the last twelve months and they bring confidence-boosting wins over GWS and Melbourne into this game. I would back Port Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.62 (bet365).