The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 21 of the 2025 AFL season.
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Draftstars have four $50,000 fantasy sports contests for the round: one for each day of fixtures. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Melbourne vs. West Coast |
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As bad as the Demons have been, they’re not nearly as bad as the Eagles. West Coast have lost eleven consecutive away games and their rising star, Harley Reid, has picked up a season-ending ankle injury. This won’t necessarily be a complete blowout. Melbourne have lost seven of their last eight games and they have a 0-3 line record at Marvel Stadium over the last two years. Six of the Eagles’ last eleven away defeats were by 1-39 margins, while the Demons have only won once by 40+ at home this season. I would back Melbourne 1-39 at 2.50 (Dabble).
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Gold Coast vs. Richmond |
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The Gold Coast Suns will be keen to avenge their shock defeat to Richmond in April, but more importantly, they have everything to play for in their fight to make the top 8. Richmond, meanwhile, are simply building towards next year. The Suns have gone 7-1 at home this season and they enter this game on the back of a 130-64 home mauling of the Lions. Richmond have gone 1-8 as the away side and their sole victory came against the 18th placed West Coast. The line has been set as high as 51.5 with some bookmakers, however six of the Suns’ seven home wins this season were by 1-39 margins and they have never beaten the Tigers by 40+. Richmond have covered the line in their last three games, while the Suns have gone 2-5 at the line at home this season. I would back Gold Coast 1-39 at 2.90 (bet365).
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Sydney vs. Essendon |
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With over a dozen players on the injury list, this is simply a bet against Essendon. The Bombers have lost eight consecutive games and they failed to cover the line in their last six defeats. Sydney won 12 of their last 13 home games against the Bombers. I’m on the fence regarding the winning margin. All eight of the Swans’ home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and wet conditions are forecast in Sydney from Wednesday through to Saturday. Another indicator towards a lower scoring game is six of Sydney’s nine home games and six of Essendon’s nine away games went under the total this season. Essendon have averaged 155.2 total points away from home this year, which is the second lowest figure in the league. My primary bet for this game is Under 167.5 at 1.50 (bet365). For the same odds you can also get the SGM of Sydney to win and Under 170.
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Collingwood vs. Brisbane |
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The Gold Coast Suns suffered a crushing defeat to Adelaide in Round 19 and this sparked them to provide an inspired performance against Brisbane a week later. I suspect that the heavy defeat for Brisbane will in turn spark a strong showing from them this week. The Lions have gone 5-1 in the head-to-head and 6-0 at the line as the away underdog over the last twelve months. Since the beginning of 2024, Brisbane have gone 5-1 in the head-to-head and 4-2 at the line at the MCG. Collingwood have lost two of their last three games, with their one win coming against Richmond. In recent years the Pies have gone 1-4 at the line at home against Brisbane. The Lions have only suffered one 25+ away defeat over the last twelve months. I would back Brisbane +20.5 at 1.47 (bet365).
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St Kilda vs. North Melbourne |
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This is primarily a bet against North Melbourne, who have gone 1-7 at Marvel Stadium this season. Over the last twelve months, North Melbourne have gone 2-1-16 as the underdog. The Saints have won five in a row against the Kangaroos. In recent years, St Kilda have gone 11-3 as the home favourite against North Melbourne. I would back St Kilda in the head-to-head at 1.28 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider St Kilda 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble).
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Geelong vs. Port Adelaide |
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With a 2-7 away record, Port Adelaide have been one of the worst travelling teams this season. Seven of eight away defeats over the last twelve months were by 25+. The Power lost and failed to cover the line in their last three away fixtures. Geelong have gone 12-1 in their last thirteen games against Port Adelaide when playing in Victoria. The Cats defeated the Power 115-39 at Adelaide Oval in May. Geelong are still in the fight for a higher playoff seed, while Port Adelaide have no chance of making the finals, so the home side has much more to play for this week. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.08 (Betfair). Those looking for more risk should consider Geelong 25+ at 1.28 (Dabble).
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Fremantle vs. Carlton |
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Carlton only lost 85-61 to Hawthorn last week, but the scoreline hid the fact that the Hawks never had to get out of first gear. The Cats have lost five of their last six games and over the last twelve months they have gone 1-6 in the head-to-head and 2-5 at the line as the away underdog. Fremantle, in contrast, bring 9-1 form into this game and they have have won five consecutive home games. The Dockers are one of four sides currently locked on 52 points in 4th-7th place, while Carlton fell out of the top 8 race a long time ago, so the home side has much more to play for this week. Five of Carlton’s seven away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and the same can be said for five of their last six away defeats against Fremantle. I would back Fremantle in the head-to-head at 1.17 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Fremantle 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble).