The following are betting tips for the Preliminary Finals of the 2025 AFL season.
The 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 8th seeds remain after Adelaide become the first minor premiers to bow out of finals in straight sets since 1983.
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Geelong vs. HawthornFriday, 7:40 PM at the MCG |
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Geelong bring a seven-game winning streak into this game. The first six of those wins were over sides outside the top 8, but their 112-74 Finals Week 1 win over Brisbane has made bookmakers install them as the Premiership favourite. Hawthorn enter this game full of confidence after they convincingly beat the minor premiers Adelaide 101-67. This was on the back of an away win over GWS in Finals Week 1. The Hawks ended the regular season in 8-3 form. With a 15-8 regular seasons record, Hawthorn are the strongest 8th seed in many years. Only one win separated them from the 4th seed, Collingwood.
Geelong have won four in a row against Hawthorn, but their last meeting in April was settled by just 7 points. What is noteworthy, however, is Geelong also covered the line in each of their last four wins over Hawthorn.
This game will be played at the MCG, where Geelong have gone 5-1 in the head-to-head and 4-2 at the line in 2025. Their average total score at the venue is 178.7, which is far above the 2025 stadium average of 161.3. Despite this, only half of their games at this venue went over the bookmaker’s total. As for Hawthorn, the Hawks have gone 7-3 in the head-to-head and 6-4 at the line at the ‘G this season. Their average total score was just 156.7. This saw nine of their ten games at the venue go under the bookmaker’s total.
The eight most recent meetings between Geelong and Hawthorn averaged 161 total points, with a median of 167 and a maximum of 176.
Blowouts have occurred, but generally, Geelong v Hawthorn fixtures have been competitive. In recent years, 18 of Geelong’s 22 wins over Hawthorn were by 1-39 margins and 15 of were by 1-24. Over the same period, eight of Hawthorn’s nine wins over Geelong were by 1-39 points and six were by 1-24. Over the last twelve months, six of Geelong’s seven defeats were by 1-39 margins, while seven of Hawthorn’s eight defeats were by 1-39.
The Melbourne weather forecast is for partly cloudy on Thursday and showers (80% chance of rain, 1-6mm) on Friday.
The total for this game opened at 168.5 but quickly came down to 164.5. I will tack on some points and back Under 174.5 at 1.50 (bet365). Seven of the last eight meetings between Geelong and Hawthorn went under this total. Hawthorn’s last nine games at the MCG went under 165.5, with an average of 152.3 across that range.
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Collingwood vs. BrisbaneSaturday, 5:15 PM at the MCG |
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After sitting at the top of the table for ten weeks, Collingwood lost five of their last seven regular season games. This saw them slip to 4th, but they defeated minor premiers Adelaide in Finals Week 1 to book a home Preliminary Final.
Brisbane suffered a rare away defeat when they lost their Finals Week 1 game to Geelong. They thrashed Gold coast a week later at home to set up this clash.
Collingwood went 9-3 as the home side this season, however they failed to cover the line in their last four home games. Brisbane have gone 11-1-3 away from home over the last twelve months, with a 6-2 record as the away underdog. The Lions covered the line in 10 of their 15 away games and they covered the line in seven of their eight games as the away underdog. On a similar note, Brisbane covered the line in five of their last six games as the away underdog against Collingwood.
This game will be played at the MCG, where Collingwood have gone 11-4 in the head-to-head and 5-10 at the line this season. The Pies averaged 155.8 at the ‘G this season, which saw 11 of their 15 games go under the bookmaker’s total. Looking at both home and away games, Collingwood’s last eight games went under the total (144.9 average, 158 max). Their average total score across the whole season is 156.3, which is the lowest in the competition.
Brisbane have a 3-1 head-to-head and 2-2 line record at the MCG this year. Their average total score was 176, which was well above the stadium average of 161.3. Two of the Lions’ four games at the ‘G this season went over the bookmaker’s total.
Collingwood and Brisbane last played at the MCG in early August, which Brisbane won (14.8) 92-65 (10.5). It was the fourth straight game between the two that went under the bookmaker’s total.
The Melbourne weather forecast is for showers (80% chance of rain, 1-6mm) on Friday and showers (80% chance of rain, 1-5mm) on Saturday.
Given Collingwood have lost five of their last six games against top-8 opposition, while Brisbane have won four of their last five against such opposition, I will back Brisbane +16.5 at 1.50 (bet365). My lean is also towards under 174.5 at 1.50 (bet365).
Preliminary Finals Multi
For those who enjoy multi betting, my pick is:
Geelong 1-39 & Under 180 + Brisbane 1-39 & Under 180 at 8.37 (bet365).