The following are betting tips for the Grand Final of the 2025 AFL season.
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Geelong vs. Brisbane |
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Finals Rematch History
For the sixth time this century, we have a Grand Final that features teams that previously clashed in the qualifying finals. In four of the five prior instances, the loser of the qualifying final won the Grand Final. In all five prior instances there was a points swing towards the loser of the qualifying final.
2003:
QF: Collingwood 66-51 Brisbane
GF: Brisbane 134-84 Collingwood
+65 point swing, 101 additional total points
2005:
QF: West Coast 69-65 Sydney
GF: Sydney 58-54 West Coast
+8 point swing, 22 fewer total points
2006:
QF: Sydney 85-84 West Coast
GF: West Coast 85-84 Sydney
+2 point swing, 0 additional total points
2015:
QF: West Coast 96-64 Hawthorn
GF: Hawthorn 107-61 West Coast
+78 point swing, 8 additional total points
2018:
QF: West Coast 86-70 Collingwood
GF: West Coast 79-74 Collingwood
+11 point swing, 3 fewer total points
This will be the fourth meeting between Geelong and Brisbane this season. The Lions won both regular season meetings before the Cats won the qualifying final.
Round 3: Brisbane 70-61 Geelong (Gabba)
Round 15: Geelong 51-92 Brisbane (GMHBA)
Qualifying final: Geelong 112-74 (MCG)
Current Form
Geelong enter the Grand Final on an eight-game winning streak. Going back further, they won 14 of their prior 16 games. I’ve written previously about how the Cats had an easy run of six games at the end of the regular season against teams outside the top eight, but they have followed that up with convincing wins over Brisbane and Hawthorn.
Brisbane enter the Grand final in 11-3 form. The standout for the Lions’ season has been their away record. Brisbane have gone 11-1-3 away from home over the last twelve months. As the away underdog, the Lions went 6-2 in the head-to-head and 7-1 at the line. The only game that Brisbane failed to cover the line as the away underdog was against Geelong in the qualifying finals.
MCG Records
Geelong have gone 6-1 in the head-to-head and 5-2 at the line at the MCG this season. Their average total score was 181.7, which is far above the 2025 MCG average of 162.3.
Brisbane have gone 4-1 in the head-to-head and 3-2 at the line at the MCG this season. Their only defeat came against Geelong in the qualifying finals. The Lions’ average total score this season at the ‘G was 175.0.
Injury News
The big news for Geelong is the forced absence of defender and vice-captain Tom Stewart after he picked up a concussion last week.
Midfielder and co-captain Lachie Neale remains in doubt for Brisbane as he races to overcome a calf injury. Teammate Jarrod Berry dislocated his shoulder in the preliminary final and is in doubt for the Final. Even if Neale does play, how well will his calf hold up?
Grand Final Stats
Since 2000, there have been plenty of blowouts in the Grand Final. There’s been a near even split of thirteen 1-39 margins and twelve 40+ margins. Four of the last six Grand Finals were won by 60+ points.
Afternoon kick-offs tend to result in higher scoring games. The average Grand Final total score since 2000 is 173.2. The last four Grand Finals averaged 186.5.
Weather Forecast
The Melbourne weather forecast at the time of writing is:
Thursday: Shower or two (0-2mm rain)
Friday: Shower or two (0-4mm rain)
Saturday: Partly cloudy (0-1mm rain)
Betting Tips
At the time of writing the head-to-head odds are:
Geelong: 1.59 (Betfair)
Brisbane: 2.60 (bet365)
(compare bookmaker odds)
The Cats are currently -12.5 at the line.
The head-to-head and line markets look efficient, so I will sit those markets out.
My learn is towards a higher scoring game. Geelong’s two finals appearances at this MCG this season saw 186 (v Brisbane) and 200 (v Hawthorn) total points. This is despite a streak of lower scoring games previously against both opponents. I would back over 160.5 at 1.50 (bet365). Both Geelong (181.7) and Brisbane (175.0) have higher than average total score records at the MCG this season. This is the Lions’ third straight Grand Final. Their most recent two Grand Final appearances saw 176 (2023) and 180 (2024) total points. Geelong most recently appeared in the 2022 Grand Final, which saw 185 total points.
Looking at the lesser markets, Geelong boast a formidable 12-1 first half record as the home side this season. This is superior to their own 11-2 full-time record as the home team. Despite their strong 10-1-3 away record, Brisbane have a slightly less impressive 9-5 record in the first half away from home this season. Geelong to win the first half at 1.55 (bet365) is worth a look.
If Geelong can’t overturn Tom Stewart’s forced absence due to AFL concussion protocols, then Zach Guthrie is worth a look in the disposals market. In the prior three game where Stewart didn’t start or left the game with an injury, Guthrie picked up 18, 18 and 21 disposals. You can get 1.45 odds for 15+ disposals and 1.87 odds for 17+ disposals with bet365.