The following is a preview with betting tips for the Fourth Test of the 2025-26 Ashes series. This match will be played at the MCG and will commence on Boxing Day.
2025-26 Ashes Schedule
The Test Match schedule is as follows. The figures in X-Y-Z format show Australia’s head-to-head Test record against England at each venue.
First Test – Optus Stadium, Perth
England won the toss and elected to bat.
England 172 & 164
Australia 132 & 205/2
Australia won by 8 wickets
Second Test (day/night) – The Gabba, Brisbane
England won the toss and elected to bat.
England 334 & 241
Australia 511 & 69/2
Australia won by 8 wickets
Third Test – Adelaide Oval
Australia won the toss and elected to bat.
Australia 371 & 349
England 286 & 352
Australia won by 82 runs
Fourth Test – Melbourne Cricket Ground
December 26-30
25-7-19 record
Fifth Test – Sydney Cricket Ground
January 4-8
23-7-22 record
2025-26 Series So Far
First Test – Perth
The Test was over inside two days. Nineteen wickets fell on the first day as both sides struggled with the bat. On the second day, England built a lead of 105 with the fall of just one wicket. They then lost four wickets for 11 runs and went on to go 9-99 during the second session. Makeshift Australian opener Travis Head then scored 123 off 83 as Australia chased down 205 in just 28.2 overs. In the span of five hours, England went from being well on top to suffering an eight-wicket defeat.
Second Test – Brisbane
England dropped five catches in the first innings, which enabled Australia to build a substantial lead. Mitchell Starc was the hero of the first innings as he was the side’s top scorer on 77 to go with this six wicket haul. The English had a few good periods with the bat, but ultimately shot themselves in the foot with several passages of brainless batting. Michael Neser, a contentious late selection over off-spinner Nathan Lyon, produced a five-wicket second innings haul as Australia cruised to a crushing victory.
Fourth Test – Adelaide
England fought hard in their second inning to take the match into the afternoon session of the final day, but Australia held on to secure the series win. The English were again left to rue the cost of dropped catches. Usman Khawaja scored 82 in the first innings after being dropped on 5, and Travis Head was dropped on 99 before making 170 in the second innings. The one negative for Australia was the potentially series-ending injury to Nathan Lyon.
Recent Ashes Series Scores in Australia
It isn’t pretty reading for England. Since winning the 2010/11 series, England have lost 16 and drawn 2 matches out of 18.
2025/26: Australia lead 3-0
2021/22: Australia won 4-0
2017/18: Australia won 4-0
2013/14: Australia won 5-0
2010/11: England won 3-1
2006/07: Australia won 5-0
2002/03: Australia won 4-1
Fourth in Australia
Below is how England has fared in the Fourth Test of each series in Australia.
2021: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: Draw (Sydney)
2017: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: Draw (Melbourne)
2013: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: AUS (Melbourne)
2010: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: ENG / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: ENG (Melbourne)
2006: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: AUS (Melbourne)
2002: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: AUS (Melbourne)
1998: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: ENG (Melbourne)
1994: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: Draw / 4th Test: ENG (Adelaide)
1990: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: Draw / 4th Test: Draw (Adelaide)
1986: 1st Test: ENG / 2nd Test: Draw / 3rd Test: Draw / 4th Test: ENG (Melbourne)
1982: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: ENG (Melbourne)
1978: 1st Test: ENG / 2nd Test: ENG / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: ENG (Sydney)
1974: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: Draw / 4th Test: AUS (Sydney)
1970: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: Draw / 3rd Test: Match abandoned / 4th Test: ENG (Sydney)
1966: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: Draw / 3rd Test: ENG / 4th Test: AUS (Adelaide)
England’s record in the Fourth Test is vastly superior to their record in the prior fixtures. Since 1978, England have gone 6-3-3 in the Fourth Test of the series. Results have dried up in the 21st century, however. England have gone 1-2-3 in the Fourth Test this century.
This is the sixth time this century that England have entered the Fourth Test down 0-3. On the preceding five occasions, England went 0-2-3 in the Fourth Test. The two draws occurred in the two most recent series.
Melbourne Test Tests
Below are recent Ashes results at the MCG.
2021 (3rd Test): Australia won by an innings and 14 runs
2017 (4th Test): Match drawn
2013 (4th Test): Australia won by 8 wickets
2010 (4th Test): England won by an innings and 157 runs
2006 (4th Test): Australia won by an innings and 99 runs
2002 (4th Test): Australia won by 5 wickets
1998 (4th Test): England won by 12 runs
1994 (2nd Test): Australia won by 295 runs
1990 (2nd Test): Australia won by 8 wickets
1986 (4th Test): England won by an innings and 14 runs
1982 (4th Test): England won by 3 runs
Again, England have more cause for optimism than they have had previously this series. Since 1982, England have gone 4-1-6 at the MCG.
More specifically, when Melbourne was the Fourth Test of the series, England have gone 4-1-3 since 1982.
Since England defeated Australia at the MCG in 2010, Australia have gone 10-2-2 at this venue against all opponents.
Australia Team News
Australia will make at least three changes for the Boxing Day Test.
Nathan Lyon suffered a right hamstring injury during the Adelaide Test and will miss the remainder of the series. His absence is a blow for Australia, given he took five key wickets during the match. Australia played an all-seam attack in the second Test at the Gabba, but it’s unlikely they would have chosen that approach for Melbourne. Todd Murphy has been named in the 15-player squad and looks likely to take Lyon’s spot. Fast bowler Jhye Richardson has also been added to the squad, but he faces a lot of competition to make the starting side.
Captain Pat Cummins will also miss the Melbourne Test as he manages his return from a back injury. Reports are that Cummins was only willing to risk his back as long as the series was still alive. Jhye Richardson is expected to take his place in the team.
Steve Smith is expected to return to Australia’s batting line-up and captain the side after he missed the Adelaide Test due to vertigo. His inclusion will likely be at the expense of Josh Inglis, however Ricky Ponting has suggested it might be Usman Khawaja who misses out.
Beau Webster is a chance of playing if Cameron Green is dropped.
England Team News
Mark Wood has been ruled out for the rest of the series.
England’s batting hasn’t been world-conquering this series, but Jacob Bethell is the only reserve batter in the squad and he is yet to score a first class century. Ollie Pope is a leading candidate to be dropped. He has averaged just under 21 in the series and he has failed to score a fifty in any of his 16 Test innings against Australia.
Melbourne Weather Forecast
The Melbourne weather forecast at the time of writing is:
Friday: Possible shower. 12-17. 0-1mm rain.
Saturday: Cloud clearing. 11-20. No rain.
Sunday: Sunny. 11-26. No rain.
Monday: Sunny. 13-32. No rain.
Tuesday: Possible late shower. 19-31. 0-1mm rain.
Betting Tips
The head-to-head odds for the Boxing Day Test are:
Australia: 1.62 (Betfair)
Draw: 12.50 (Betfair)
England: 3.25 (Betfair)
For the first time this series, I’m hesitant to back Australia at the prevailing odds. The stats were far more strongly in their favour in the Third Test, yet we’re getting almost the same head-to-head odds for Melbourne. This is despite the fact that Australia now have less to play for and they will be doing so without Lyons or Cummins.
I’m also wary of the fact that in both 2017 and 2021, England trailed 0-3 at this stage of the tour and went on to draw the fourth Test.
There’s also a chance that Australia will look to the future and blood one or two new players for the sake of it.
At the same time, England’s 0-2-16 record in Australia spanning the last four and a half series leaves me with little confidence in backing them.
England did manage to push the third Test into the afternoon session of the final day, so the draw at 12.50 (Betfair) isn’t completely out of the question. Over the past decade, the batting average at the MCG (30.54) is the second highest in Australia. One drawback of backing the draw, however, is the good weather forecast.
I believe that an Australian win is the most likely outcome, but for this Test I would like insurance in the event of a draw.
I backed Australia in the head-to-head in the first three Tests, but for the Fourth Test I will opt for Australia in the Draw No Bet market at 1.50 (Betfair).