The following is a preview with betting tips for the Fifth Test of the 2025-26 Ashes series. This match will be played at the SCG and will commence on January 4.
2025-26 Ashes Schedule
The Test Match schedule is as follows. The figures in X-Y-Z format show Australia’s head-to-head Test record against England at each venue.
First Test – Optus Stadium, Perth
England won the toss and elected to bat.
England 172 & 164
Australia 132 & 205/2
Australia won by 8 wickets
Second Test (day/night) – The Gabba, Brisbane
England won the toss and elected to bat.
England 334 & 241
Australia 511 & 69/2
Australia won by 8 wickets
Third Test – Adelaide Oval
Australia won the toss and elected to bat.
Australia 371 & 349
England 286 & 352
Australia won by 82 runs
Fourth Test – Melbourne Cricket Ground
England won the toss and elected to field.
Australia 152 & 132
England 110 & 178/6
England won by 4 wickets
Fifth Test – Sydney Cricket Ground
January 4-8
23-7-22 record
2025-26 Series So Far
First Test – Perth
The Test was over inside two days. Nineteen wickets fell on the first day as both sides struggled with the bat. On the second day, England built a lead of 105 with the fall of just one wicket. They then lost four wickets for 11 runs and went on to go 9-99 during the second session. Makeshift Australian opener Travis Head then scored 123 off 83 as Australia chased down 205 in just 28.2 overs. In the span of five hours, England went from being well on top to suffering an eight-wicket defeat.
Second Test – Brisbane
England dropped five catches in the first innings, which enabled Australia to build a substantial lead. Mitchell Starc was the hero of the first innings as he was the side’s top scorer on 77 to go with this six wicket haul. The English had a few good periods with the bat, but ultimately shot themselves in the foot with several passages of brainless batting. Michael Neser, a contentious late selection over off-spinner Nathan Lyon, produced a five-wicket second innings haul as Australia cruised to a crushing victory.
Third Test – Adelaide
England fought hard in their second inning to take the match into the afternoon session of the final day, but Australia held on to secure the series win. The English were again left to rue the cost of dropped catches. Usman Khawaja scored 82 in the first innings after being dropped on 5, and Travis Head was dropped on 99 before making 170 in the second innings. The one negative for Australia was the potentially series-ending injury to Nathan Lyon.
Fourth Test – Melbourne
An estimated $25M for Cricket Australia went down the drain as the Test concluded inside two days for the second time this series. It is the first time that a series has had multiple two-day Tests in 129 years. With conditions heavily favouring the bowlers, not a single batter managed to reach 50. This was England’s first Test win in Australia for 14 years.
Recent Ashes Series Scores in Australia
Since winning the 2010/11 series, England have lost 16, drawn 2 and won 1 match out of 19.
2025/26: Australia lead 3-1
2021/22: Australia won 4-0
2017/18: Australia won 4-0
2013/14: Australia won 5-0
2010/11: England won 3-1
2006/07: Australia won 5-0
2002/03: Australia won 4-1
Fourth in Australia
Below is how England has fared in the Fifth Test of each series in Australia.
2025: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: ENG
2021: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: Draw / 5th Test: AUS (Hobart)
2017: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: Draw / 5th Test: AUS (Sydney)
2013: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: AUS / 5th Test: AUS (Sydney)
2010: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: ENG / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: ENG / 5th Test: ENG (Sydney)
2006: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: AUS / 5th Test: AUS (Sydney)
2002: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: AUS / 5th Test: ENG (Sydney)
1998: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: ENG / 5th Test: AUS (Sydney)
1994: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: Draw / 4th Test: ENG / 5th Test: AUS (Perth)
1990: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: Draw / 4th Test: Draw / 5th Test: AUS (Perth)
1986: 1st Test: ENG / 2nd Test: Draw / 3rd Test: Draw / 4th Test: ENG / 5th Test: AUS (Sydney)
1982: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS / 4th Test: ENG / 5th Test: Draw (Sydney)
Historically, the Fourth Test has produced the best results for England. Their form drops off in the Fifth Test, but it is still not as bad as their record in the first three Tests.
Since 1982, England have gone 2-1-8 in the Fifth Test, compared to 5-3-3 in the Fourth Test.
Six times this century, England entered the Fourth Test down 0-3. Last week in Melbourne was the first time that they bounced back with a win.
This will be the sixth Test since 1982 that England will enter the Fifth Test on the back of a Fourth Test victory. In the preceding five instances, England’s Fifth Test record is 1-1-3.
Sydney Test Results
Below are recent Ashes results at the SCG.
2021 (4rd Test): Match drawn
2018 (5th Test): Australia won by an innings and 123 runs
2014 (5th Test): Australia won by 281 runs
2011 (5th Test): England won by an innings and 83 runs
2007 (5th Test): Australia won by 10 wickets
2003 (5th Test): England won by 225 runs
1999 (5th Test): Australia won by 98 runs
1995 (3rd Test): Match drawn
1991 (3rd Test): Match drawn
1986 (5th Test): Australia won by 55 runs
1983 (4th Test): Match drawn
Since 1983, England have gone 2-4-5 at the SCG.
Australia Team News
Selectors have named an unchanged 15-man group.
Usman Khawaja will most certainly feature given his announcement to retire from Test cricket following this Test.
Cameron Green’s spot in the XI is again in the spotlight, with Beau Webster the most likely candidate to replace him.
Off-spinner Todd Murphy might feature after Australia opted to go without a spinner for the second time in the series in Melbourne. His inclusion would likely come at the expense of either Michael Neser or Jhye Richardson.
England Team News
Gus Atkinson is the latest England bowler to have been ruled out of the tour, which leaves England with just 14 available players.
Atkinson joins Jofra Archer and Mark Wood on the absentee list. Seamer Matthew Potts is Atkinson’s likely replacement.
Sydney Weather Forecast
The Sydney weather forecast at the time of writing is:
Sunday: Shower or two. Storm. 19-29. 0-8mm rain.
Monday: Shower or two. 19-28. 0-3mm rain.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. 20-28. 0-1mm rain.
Wednesday: Cloud clearing. 19-30. No rain.
Thursday: Sunny. 20-32. No rain.
Betting Tips
The head-to-head odds for the New Year’s Test are:
Australia: 1.68 (Dabble)
Draw: 7.60 (Betfair)
England: 3.50 (Betfair)
The Melbourne Test proved that analysis can go out the window if the conditions heavily favour the bowlers. I anticipate that, for financial reasons, Cricket Australia will be keen that this Test goes deep into the five-day window. For that reason I expect the groundsman will be under pressure to lean on the side of producing a batter-friendly wicket.
With that in mind, the Draw at 7.60 (Betfair) is a viable outcome, especially given the wet forecast for the start of the Test. Six of the past 11 SCG Tests finished in a draw.
Another bet is Australia in the Draw No Bet market at 1.44 (bet365). Since 2015, Australia have gone 5-6-0 at the SCG. Australia will have new-found motivation now that that they’ve lost their winning streak. Australia will also be keen to send veteran Usman Khawaja off on a high. England, on the other hand, have avoided the dreaded 5-0 sweep and they are now down three bowlers following Atkinson’s injury. Another factor is that England’s Fifth Test record isn’t as strong as their Fourth Test record.