AFL Round 4 Betting Tips

The following are betting tips for Round 4 of the 2026 AFL season.

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Draftstars have $60,000 fantasy sports contest for each of the Lions v Magpies (Thu) and Hawks v Cats (Mon) clashes. They also have $60,000 contests for each of the game line-ups on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. For each competition, entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a pay out.

 

Brisbane vs. Collingwood

 

Collingwood +27.5 at 1.52 (bet365)

Collingwood have gone 4-0 at the line as the away underdog over the last twelve months. In recent years they have also gone 6-1 at the line as the away underdog against Brisbane.

Under 188.5 at 1.52 (bet365)

Since the beginning of 2025, the average total score at the Gabba is 170.2. Since the beginning of 2025, Collingwood’s average total score is 156.4. This saw 20 of their 28 games go under the bookmaker’s total.

 

Adelaide vs. Fremantle

 

Fremantle +14.5 at 1.50 (bet365)

Spanning this season and the last, Adelaide have lost three consecutive home games and they failed to cover the line in their last four home fixtures. Fremantle have gone 4-2 in the head-to-head and 5-1 at the line as the away underdog over the last twelve months. The Dockers have scored 100+ points in all three fixtures this season. If you do fancy Fremantle to win, the 1-39 selection at 2.65 (bet365) and the 1-24 selection at 3.70 (bet365) both hold appeal given Adelaide’s nine defeats over the last twelve months were all by 1-39 margins and eight of the nine were by 1-24 margins. Six of Fremantle’s seven away wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and five of the seven were by 1-24 margins.

 

West Coast vs. Sydney

 

SGM: Sydney to win the first quarter, the first half and the game at 1.62 (bet365)

With the data I have at hand, Sydney have gone 13-0 in their last thirteen meetings as the favourite against West Coast. Seven of their last eight wins over the Eagles in Perth were by 25+ margins. West Coast bring rare back-to-back wins into this game, but they were over far weaker opposition than Sydney. In both of those wins, the Eagles were behind by 29+ points at one stage. The absence of Errol Gulden hurts Sydney, so I will shy away from the line market. Given the Eagles’ 0-3 first quarter and 0-3 first half records this season, I will back Sydney in the SGM market.

 

Melbourne vs. Gold Coast

 

Gold Coast 1-39 at 2.28 (Dabble)

The Gold Coast Suns have gone 13-4 as the bookmaker’s favourite over the last twelve months and that includes a 5-2 record as the away favourite. Over the last twelve months, 12 of Melbourne’s 13 defeats were by 1-39 margins. The Dees covered the line in their last five home games and over the last twelve months they have gone 4-1 at the line as the home underdog. The injury absence of Christian Petracca (1-3 weeks) will further dent the Suns’ 40+ chances.

 

Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon

 

Western Bulldogs 40+ at 1.18 (BetEstate)

When the Western Bulldogs win at home, they tend to win big. Over the last twelve months all seven of their home wins were by 40+ margins. It’s no coincidence then that the Bulldogs have gone 7-3 at the line as the home favourite over the last twelve months. The Bulldogs played Essendon twice last year and they won those fixtures by 91 and 93 point margins. The 1.18 odds quoted above may seem miserly, but the 40+ with other major bookmakers is as low as 1.11 at the time of writing.