Am I the only one who was a bit surprised by the odds that were on offer for Andy Murray vs. Roger Federer in the Indian Wells semifinal?
On Saturday, the 21st of March, one bookmaker was offering 2.20 for Murray and 1.67 for Federer. Considering their history against each other I wonder how long it will be, if ever, before Murray is installed as the favourite for this match up. I say this because Murray had won the previous four encounters between the two, and had a 6-2 record against Federer leading up to this game.
I know I’m a bit cheeky writing this article after the game, which Murray won 6-3 4-6 6-1, to extend his winning streak to five, but the odds to seem to be a bit of an anomaly. Having played competitive tennis myself I know that every now and then you have people ranked below you that you consistently lose to, and people ranked above you that you can consistently beat. It just seems that bookmakers and punters are preoccupied with rankings (Murray is 4, Federer is 2).
I don’t see what has changed in the last six or so months to suggest that Murray’s winning trend against Federer will end. Yes, Federer will beat Murray in future matches, but the betting odds suggest Federer will win the majority of them, and I’m not convinced that’s the case.
I have placed bets on Murray for his last three matches against Federer and will continue to do so, so long as bookmakers continue to offer more than 2.00 for him.
Below is their match up history, courtesy of SportsBet.
Murray: 7 wins
Federer: 2 wins
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
| 21/3/2009 | Indian Wells, USA | Semifinals | Hardcourt | Murray | 6-3 4-6 6-1 |
| 9/1/2009 | Doha, Qatar | Semifinals | Hardcourt | Murray | 6-7 6-2 6-2 |
| 2/1/2009 | Capitala Champs, Abu Dhabi | Semifinals | Hardcourt | Murray | 4-6 6-2 7-6 |
| 14/11/2008 | Shanghai Red Group, China | Quarterfinals | Hardcourt | Murray | 4-6 7-6 7-5 |
| 18/10/2008 | Madrid, Spain | Semifinals | Hardcourt | Murray | 3-6 6-3 7-5 |
| 8/9/2008 | US Open, New York, USA | Final | Hardcourt | Federer | 2-6 5-7 2-6 |
| 3/3/2008 | Dubai Tennis Champs, UAE | R32 | Hardcourt | Murray | 6-7 6-3 6-4 |
| 16/08/2006 | ATP MS Cincinnati, USA | R32 | Hardcourt | Murray | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2/10/2005 | Thailand Open | Final | Hardcourt | Federer | 3-6 5-7 |
It’s interesting to note that both of Murray’s losses to Federer have occurred in finals. I watched Murray lose to Federer in the US Open final and thought Murray looked a little overawed by the occasion. If they go head to head again in a Grand Slam final and Murray doesn’t yet have a Grand Slam title under his belt, I might sit on the sidelines. Other than that, my money will be on Murray.