AFL Round 5 Preview and Betting Tips – Saturday and Sunday Fixtures

One of the most popular betting options is the multi-bet and in a new addition to the column, this week we will try our luck with a ‘Cheeky AFL Multi’. And as the major sites don’t yet have all the legs I want to include, I’m going retro and chucking on a TAB Sportsbet multi.



-Port Adelaide half time/full time

-Carlton -15.5

-Jack Riewoldt most goals in NM v Rich match

-Collingwood -15.5

-Fremantle +15.5

Combined Odds of 6.65 @ (TAB Sportsbet)





AT SELECTION: Port Adelaide have been forced to make a single change to the team that triumphed against bitter rivals Adelaide last week. Yo-yo man Jason Davenport comes in for his third game of the season at the expense of injured run with player Paul Stewart. Gold Coast were more ruthless at the selection table, making four alterations to the side destroyed by Melbourne. The big inclusion is captain and star player Gary Ablett. Ablett will add some much needed ball winning ability and class to an otherwise inferior midfield. Youngster Jack Hutchins has been selected to make his AFL debut, ex-Magpie Sam Iles will play his first game for the Suns and high draft pick Harley Bennell is recalled after a one week absence. Promising defender Michael Coad misses with an injured hamstring, Dion Prestia has been left out with general soreness while Maverick Weller and Alik Magin have been dropped.

WHO IS MISSING? For the second week running there is no room in the Power side for experienced midfielders Kane Cornes and Danyle Pearce. Coach Matthew Primus has elected to keep faith in the players who got the first win of the season last weekend. Skipper Dom Cassisi and key forward Jay Schulz are still a month away from returning from long term injuries. Rugged Gold Coast defender Campbell Brown serves the second of his four match suspension, and Nathan Krakouer is still unavailable due to a lack of fitness.

PREVIEW: Despite losing convincingly to Melbourne last week, the Gold Coast played probably their most competitive match in their fledging AFL adventure. The Suns even won a quarter for the first time, but were ultimately blown away in the last term. Gary Ablett’s return will definitely help the bottom side, but even the little champ is having difficulty adjusting to a midfield life without the support he received at Geelong. Port Adelaide impressed many with a come from behind win against arch enemy Adelaide last Saturday night. The Power retrieved a deficit of more than thirty points, before going on to win by a comfortable margin. I think the Gold Coast will continue their gradual improvement, but Port Adelaide will still be far too strong, especially in the attacking and defensive arcs. As you would expect, the Power are too short to back straight out, and much like St Kilda on Thursday night, I’m not convinced they will cover the line. The general pattern in Gold Coast games has been for the opposition side to blow them out of the water early. In their three matches, they have trailed at half time by 74, 45 and 46 points. The half time line of 31.5 looks the best play for this game.

TIP: Port Adelaide to win by 55 points

ANDY’S BET: Port Adelaide to be leading by 31 points or more at half time @ 1.90 (Sportingbet)




LAST TIME: Adelaide 6.19 (55) def by Carlton 16.7 (103), R4, 2010

AT SELECTION: Carlton drop two players from last weekend’s team. Tall forward Lachie Henderson and forward flanker Andrew Collins have both been dumped for their poor form. Interestingly their replacements are midfielder taggers Aaron Joseph and David Ellard. Adelaide make three changes to their losing side from last week. Ruckman Ivan Maric, and youngsters Myke Cook and Matthew Wright are the Crows to make way. Former Carlton ruckman Sam Jacobs will make his Adelaide debut, tagger Michael Doughty is recalled, and running defender Richard Tambling comes straight back in after his ankle injury.

WHO IS MISSING? Ruckman Matthew Kreuzer is the only first choice Blue on the injury list. Paul Bower and Brock McLean are both fit, but can’t break into the team. The Crows still have a large number of crucial players out of action as Scott Stevens, Jason Porplyzia, David Mackay, Rory Sloane and Phil Davis are all unavailable.

PREVIEW: Both sides were good and bad last week. Carlton gave up a four goal lead early and worked their way back into the match through a ferocious attack on the ball in the middle of the ground, while Adelaide got the early jump in their game and were then listless after quarter time. If Adelaide were at full strength, I think they’d be a great match for Carlton, but since they’re missing more players and travelling interstate, Carlton should get the job done. The only concern for the Blues is down back against Adelaide forwards Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett. Michael Jamieson and Simon White will get those though match ups, but should get plenty of support from the impressive Nick Duigan. Carlton are less than $1.30 in the head to head market, which I believe is too short, so to get a bit of extra value I’m going to put some coins on the Blues to complete the half time and full time double. After a poor early showing last week, they will be keen to bounce out of the blocks.

TIP: Carlton to win by 30 points

ANDY’S BET: Carlton to win at half time and at full time @ 1.51 (Centrebet)




LAST TIME: Richmond 7.11 (53) def by North Melbourne 15.13 (103), R16, 2010

AT SELECTION: North Melbourne have resisted the temptation to make wholesale changes to their squad which is yet to bring home a victory. Gritty defender Daniel Pratt has been brought in to add much needed hardness to the team. Richmond’s squad will be strengthened considerably be the inclusions of full back Alex Rance and centre half back Luke McGuane, both reurning from suspension. Daniel Connors and Shane Tuck have been included on an extended bench. The Tigers have dropped Will Thursfield, David Astbury and Brad Helbig.

WHO IS MISSING? North are still missing number one ruckman Hamish McIntosh, as well as nimble forward Matt Campbell and young midfielder Ryan Bastinac. All are suffering from long term injuries. With their inclusions for this week, Richmond are one of the few sides at full strength.

PREVIEW: Richmond may have been belted on the scoreboard by Collingwood last Friday, but the yellow and blacks were still in the game heading into the last quarter courtesy of an excellent third quarter surge. Young midfielders Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin provided excellent support to the outstanding Brett Deledio, while up front, Jack Riewoldt was incredibly efficient booting four goals from his six disposals. Despite these encouraging signs they were still blasted away, but that was mainly because of a lack of manpower down back. With Rance and McGuane returning, the Tigers will be more difficult to score against this week. The Kangaroos have lost all their three matches, but that has included two trips to Perth and a date with all conquering Collingwood. You have to be careful not to write them off just yet. This game will be a battle of the youth, and the Tigers youngsters look to be in better form, so I’m tipping them for the win.

TIP: Richmond to win by 10 points

ANDY’S BET: Richmond to win by 1-39 points @ 2.72 (Centrebet)

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