Hi All. James here filling in for the great Andy Marshall while he is having a well-earned break in Europe, Hopefully I can keep you in the black whilst he is away. Last week netted a handy profit of $37.30 for the suggested outlay, so the pressure is on for me to keep the ball rolling with another profitable week.
Season Betting Tally (After Round 9)
Wagered = $810 – $10 per suggested bet
Collected = $890.30
Profit/Loss = + $80.30
% Profit/Loss = + 9.9%
Tips = 47.5*
*Note: The draw is treated differently depending on your tipping competition. I have assumed it to be 0.5 tips.
CHEEKY AFL MULTI
Carlton to win by over 39.5 pts. @ 2.35
Richmond to win by under 39.5 pts. @ 2.25
Hawthorn to win by under 39.5 pts. @ 2.20
Combined Odds @ 11.63 (TAB Sportsbet)
FRIDAY NIGHT
MELBOURNE v CARLTON – MCG (7.40pm AEST)
PREVIEW: It’s strange to say that Carlton have the better recent form, with both these teams coming off loses, however Carlton’s loss was narrow and against a very good opponent, and while Melbourne were competitive against the Saints, their skill level and decision making wasn’t great, and a better team, or even an in form St Kilda would have put them away, as I expect Carlton to do on Friday. Melbourne’s cause won’t be helped with the loss of Aaron Davey to injury, while Carlton make only one like for like change with Hampson replacing the concussed Warnock.
TIP: Carlton by 45 points
JIMMY’S BET: Carlton to win by over 39.5 pts. @ 2.35 (TAB Sportsbet)
JIMMY’S BET: Marc Murphy most disposals in Group A @ 4.00 (TAB Sportsbet)
SATURDAY AFTERNOON
NORTH MELBOURNE v SYDNEY – ETIHAD STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: With both teams coming off a loss it’s always hard to pick a winner, but looking at the recent form between these two teams helps make the picture clearer. Sydney has won 5 out of the last 6 meetings between these two teams, indicating that they matchup very well against North. One player in particular that usually dominates North is Adam Goodes, the Roos just don’t seem to have a matchup for the champ so expect him to have a big day, although the inclusion of the strong-bodied Levi Greenwood will help north win the tough ball. Still I’m going for a Sydney win, but not necessarily a big one. Also look out for Lewis Johnston’s first game this week, this kid was one of my favourites from a strong 2008 draft, and must have impressed recruiters as well since he was drafted at pick 12 as a 17 year old.
TIP: Sydney by 17 points
JIMMY’S BET: Halftime/Fulltime Double Sydney/Sydney @ 2.10 (Sportsbet)
FREMANTLE v ST KILDA – PATERSONS STADIUM (3.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: Did the saints recapture enough form against the Dees last week to challenge Freo, for me, no, but the loss of big Sandi will certainly even things up a bit and should make for a good contest. Freo absolutely blitzed Port last week leading all the way, while the Saints still are still looking pretty rusty although just doing enough to get over the line. Key players Goddard and Riewoldt were amongst the major ball winners for the day without being particularly damaging, but they should gain confidence from their roles and keep improving this week. Former Adelaide ruck man Jon Griffen comes in for his first game in the purple strip with the huge task of replacing Sandilands, while St Kilda continue to play without a recognized No. 1 ruck man. It will be hard to lock it down for the saints on the big ground and I don’t think they are in good enough form yet to out play Freo so I think the Dockers should just edge this one.
TIP: Fremantle by 21 points
JIMMY’S BET: Fremantle to win by 1-39 @ 2.41 (Centrebet)
SATURDAY NIGHT
GOLD COAST v GEELONG – METRICON STADIUM (7.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: Call it the football gods or just a marketing ploy, but Geelong will be the first team to visit the Gold Coast’s new home ground Metricon on Saturday night, facing their former star player Gary Ablett Jnr. This game should have plenty of heat in it, with the young kids of the GC keen to support their captain with a strong display as well as show the fans a good time in the new stadium. Although I think the game could be a reasonably close one, I can’t see the Gold Coast really challenging Geelong over four quarters; the Cats are far too strong and experienced on every line and should have control of the game. Geelong welcomes back the experience of Ling and Mooney, while the Gold Coast gain some experience of their own with Daniel Harris among four inclusions.
TIP: Geelong by 29 points
JIMMY’S BET: Geelong by 20-39 points @ 6.00 (TAB Sportsbet)
JIMMY’S BET: Gary Ablett Most Disposals Group 1 @ 4.00 (Centrebet)
RICHMOND v PORT ADELAIDE – TIO STADIUM (8.40pm AEST)
PREVIEW: I will continue Andy’s strategy of betting against Port and collecting the returns this week. It’s hard to mount a case for Port with their form so poor this year. In contrast Richmond have continued to impress with a win against the red hot bombers last week and if they are serious about their rise up the ladder Richmond will back it up with a win here. No rain is forecast; however the heat usually catches players out in this fixture every year so I’m predicting Richmond in a lower scoring match.
TIP: Richmond by 28 points
JIMMY’S BET: Richmond by 1-39 @ 2.13 (Centrebet)
JIMMY’S BET: Trent Cotchin Most Disposals Group 1 @ 5.50 (TAB Sportsbet)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ADELAIDE v BRISBANE – AAMI STADIUM (1.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: Brisbane broke through for their first win of the season last week thanks largely to their inspirational captain Jono Brown, but the joy should be short lived for the lions as they travel to AAMI against an inconsistent Adelaide Crows. The home ground advantage should be a big help for the crows as well as their 5/2 record against the lions over the last five years. Taylor Walker comes back in to the team after playing for Norwood last week, with the crows deciding against a suspension for his minor indiscretion last weekend. Brisbane lose ball magnet Tom Rockliff to a foot injury, so I can only see this game going one way.
TIP: Adelaide by 25 points
JIMMY’S BET: Adelaide to win @ 1.25 (Sportsbet)
COLLINGWOOD v WEST COAST – MCG (2.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: After another comfortable win last week, life is going very smoothly for Malthouse and his pies. The same could almost be said about Worsfold and his Eagles, sitting 6th on the ladder with a 5-3 record, with 2 of their losses coming against top 4 sides (Hawthorn and Essendon) and the other against Sydney, West Coast are flying under the radar this year and looking very good. If this game was in the west I would almost be considering the Eagles for a line bet, but as it’s at the G’ you would have to lock Collingwood in for another win. A word of caution, Dane Swan is said to be carrying a niggling thigh injury so leave him out of your multi’s. Alan Toovey returns to the side after being knocked out by Tom Hawkins knee and big man Lachlan Keeffe is named on the extended bench due to the continued absence of Darren Jolly.
TIP: Collingwood by 32 points
JIMMY’S BET: Collingwood to win by over 25 points @ 1.60 (Centrebet)
WESTERN BULLDOGS v HAWTHORN – ETIHAD STADIUM (4.40pm AEST)
PREVIEW: Well, well, well. What can be said about the Bulldogs? Just like St Kilda, one of the better performing teams of the last few years struggling for consistent form this year, with last week’s belting at the hands of the eagles a low point in recent times. They will be keen to bounce back with renewed effort this week and the inclusion Barry Hall and young terrier Mitch Wallis should help their cause. However it won’t be easy against 3rd placed Hawthorn who are just doing enough this year without setting the world on fire. I expect Hawthorn’s tall forwards to be too much for the Bulldogs backline and I’d still be worried about the fitness of dogs’ midfielder Shaun Higgins after he was subbed off in Q3.
TIP: Hawthorn by 18 points
JIMMY’S BET: Hawthorn by 1-24 @ 3.50 (Sportsbet)