Hello Again. After a good start last week, a few teams decided to spoil the show by popping up for surprise wins. I’m talking about you St Kilda and Port Adelaide. We still managed to just stay in the black though, with a very modest profit of $9.50 for the week’s suggested bets. We’ll go for the big score this week with a few longer shots that will hopefully pay handsomely and reward our courage. Good luck
Season Betting Tally (After Round 9)
Wagered = $920 – $10 per suggested bet
Collected = $1009.8
Profit/Loss = + $89.80
% Profit/Loss = + 9.8%
Tips = 52.5*
*Note: The draw is treated differently depending on your tipping competition. I have assumed it to be 0.5 tips.
CHEEKY AFL MULTI
Halftime/Fulltime Double Geelong/Geelong @ 1.22
North Melbourne to win by 1-39 @ 2.30
Sydney to win by 1-39 @ 2.60
Hawthorn to Win @ 1.11
Combined Odds @ 8.10 (TAB Sportsbet)
ESSENDON v MELBOURNE – MCG (7.40pm AEST)
Essendon will be keen to get back on the winners list this week and be keen to get back into the top 4 and should be fresh and raring to go after a week off. Still no Watson or Hurley for the bombers should even things up a bit, and the return of young guns, Scully and Trengove for the Dees should restore optimism, but I think the bombers will still have a little too much for the Dees on Friday night.
TIP: Essendon by 30 points
JIMMY’S BET: Essendon to win by 1-39 @ 2.25 (TAB Sportsbet)
JIMMY’S BET: Stewart Crameri Top Goal Scorer @ 7.00 (TAB Sportsbet)
GEELONG v WESTERN BULLDOGS – SKILLED STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)
Top of the table Geelong really should have no trouble accounting for a dispirited Western Bulldogs. Geelong lose Chapman and Mooney, but regain Enright, Ottens and Taylor, so overall not losing any experience, perhaps they may be a tad more defensive without two of their forwards, but still should be too strong for the dogs. It’s hard to mount any sort of case for the Doggies, with their only 3 wins this year coming against bottom 8 teams, they just seem to have lost all their chemistry from previous years. Hawthorn half backs racked up huge number against the dogs last week, with Guerra pulling in an amazing 17 marks with 35 disposals. Expect Mackie, Enright, et al to do the same. I’m
TIP: Geelong by 37 points
JIMMY’S BET: Halftime/Fulltime Double Geelong/Geelong @ 1.22 (Sportsbet)
JIMMY’S BET: Corey Enright Most Disposals Group B @ 4.50 (TAB Sportsbet)
WEST COAST v GOLD COAST – PATERSONS STADIUM (3.10pm AEST)
On paper this game looks pretty straight forward, West Coast are a much better team at home, with 4 of their 5 wins occurring at Patersons this year. This will be the first time the Gold Coast has done the biggest trip in football from Brisbane to Perth, and will likely be a learning experience for the young side. It’s hard to find value in this one for the punters, as it has been all year for anyone playing GCFC, so if you’re good at picking Most Disposals, then have a crack here. I’m going Priddis here to rack it up more than Ablett, expecting that the Selwood brother will put a fair bit of time into Gary as they used to do when he played for Geelong.
TIP: West Coast by 51 points
JIMMY’S BET: West Coast to win by 40+ @ 1.23 (Sportsbet)
JIMMY’S BET: Matthew Priddis Most Disposals Group A @ 3.00 (TAB Sportsbet)
COLLINGWOOD v ST. KILDA – MCG (7.10pm AEST)
The Saints caught the Dockers by surprise last week and were all over them, with the purple haze hardly giving a yelp all afternoon. The Saints were a bit battered and bruised after the game, with a number of players copping knocks, and after a long road trip back, it will be very hard for the Saints to back it up this week. I think Ross Lyon is taking realistic approach to this game, by selecting two debutants to play against the reigning premier, it seems experience more than the 4 points is what Lyon is after.
TIP: Collingwood by 29 points
JIMMY’S BET: Collingwood by 20-39 points @ 4.00 (TAB Sportsbet)
JIMMY’S BET: Scott Pendlebury Most Disposals Group 1 @ 3.75 (Centrebet)
BRISBANE v SYDNEY – GABBA (7.40pm AEST)
Brisbane broke through for their second win of the season against Adelaide on Sunday, running out comfortable winners by 40 points. Their assignment will be a lot tougher this week though as they face 6th placed Sydney, a team they have won only 2 of 9 against in the last 5 years. Sydney continues to be the least impressive team in the Top 8 and the one looking most likely to fall later in the season. The weekend marked their 4th win by 13 points or under this season, but then again, they have always been masters at the narrow wins. I would expect them to be a little stronger and harder than the young Brisbane side, especially in the midfield.
TIP: Sydney by 24 points
JIMMY’S BET: Sydney by 1-24 @ 3.80 (Centrebet)
HAWTHORN v FREMANTLE – MCG (1.10pm AEST)
There is an interesting history between these two teams. In last year’s finals Fremantle defeated Hawthorn by 30 points, however when they met in Round 21, less than a month earlier, Hawthorn smashed the Dockers by 116 points. Also interestingly they don’t seem to play each other at the ‘G with the matches alternating between Tassie and the West. Freo still struggle with the MCG, especially against big opponents, so I expect the Hawks to just have too much for them on Sunday. Sam Mitchell is in excellent form this season and if he escapes a tag, I would expect him to rack up some big numbers on Sunday.
TIP: Hawthorn by 45 points
JIMMY’S BET: Hawthorn to win by 40 or over @ 1.80 (Centrebet)
NORTH MELBOURNE v ADELAIDE – ETIHAD STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)
North were impressive last week against Sydney, only losing narrowly. Their 2 wins this season have come against bottom eight teams, so Sydney would have been a good scalp for them. Adelaide continues to be a tipster’s nightmare, losing to a team below them on the ladder at home. At the selection table, North have lost some experience with Firrito and Pratt going out, meanwhile the crows have tried to add some experience with Vince, Symes, and Maric all named as ins. Still I think North should win with their home fans cheering loudly for Boomer breaking the clubs games record this weekend.
TIP: North Melbourne by 32 points
JIMMY’S BET: North Melbourne to win by over 25 points @ 2.58 (Centrebet)
PORT ADELAIDE v CARLTON – AAMI STADIUM (4.40pm AEST)
Well it’s been a tumultuous week for the Power and players usually respond pretty strongly to off field turmoil but unfortunately for them, they come up against Carlton, a team they have struggled against recently, with their last win against the blues coming back in Round 19, 2007. Conversely, Carlton are flying at the moment, winning 4 out of their last 5, that loss coming narrowly against Geelong. I’d expect the Blues to pile on the misery to the Power this week, and the margin could blow out in the second half.
TIP: Carlton by 41 points
JIMMY’S BET: Carlton by 40-59 @ 4.75 (Sportsbet)