Hello All. A tough week for the column last week, with a substantial loss coming after some narrow misses, Carlton were 3 points outside my selected margin and Gazza got a single possession more the Priddis, costing me bragging rights this week. Essendon didn’t help either, adding to the long list of teams that have lost coming off the bye. There are a few tasty fixtures this week however, so selecting the right bets could potentially net some solid returns.
Season Betting Tally (After Round 10#)
Wagered = $920 – $10 per suggested bet
Collected = $1009.8
Profit/Loss = + $89.80
% Profit/Loss = + 9.8%
Tips = 52.5*
*Note: The draw is treated differently depending on your tipping competition. I have assumed it to be 0.5 tips.
#Will be updated after Round 12
CHEEKY AFL MULTI
St Kilda to win by 1-39 points @ 2.25
Halftime/Fulltime Double Fre/Fre @ 2.35
Gary Ablett Jnr Most Disposals Group A @ 2.75
Combined Odds @ 14.54 (TAB Sportsbet)
St KILDA v WESTERN BULLDOGS –ETIHAD STADIUM (7.40pm AEST)
It’s all about the tip rat this week, with Riewoldt too scared to go near the big sticks and Kosi out of the team, now is the time for little Stevie Milne to step up for a big Friday night. Milney loves it when things go his way, and I’m tipping the saints for a win this week so he should enjoy good supply. Why am I tipping the saints? St Kilda has won the last 5 meetings between these two teams, so the dogs will be up against it, also Hargrave and Lake are both out this week, leaving a big gap in the Bulldogs defense, which is all Riewoldt needs to have a big game, and I expect the champ to get some form back tomorrow night. If you want to have a crack at Most Disposals, Dal Santo has been racking it up down back recently, but Boyd just keeps on finding the footy, especially with Cooney back to take the tag, so I’d probably put my money on him.
TIP: St Kilda by 30 points
JIMMY’S BET: St Kilda to win by 1-39 @ 2.25 (TAB Sportsbet)
JIMMY’S BET: Steven Milne Top Goal Scorer @ 4.50 (TAB Sportsbet)
ADELAIDE v WEST COAST – AAMI STADIUM (3.10pm AEST)
Adelaide were pretty easily accounted for by North Melbourne last week and currently sit 14th on the ladder. It’s looking like it could be a long season for the Crows, who are really suffering from the huge loss of experience their team has suffered over the last year or two. West Coast on the other hand still have a few premiership players left and the mix of youth and experience is working very well for them this year, with Cox in particular having a stellar season. It’s hard not to tip 6th placed West Coast, but I think it should be close for a fair part of the game with perhaps West Coast just holding out the longest.
TIP: West Coast by 7 points
JIMMY’S BET: West Coast to win 1-24 points @ 3.45 (TAB Sportsbet)
JIMMY’S BET: Halftime/Fulltime Double Adelaide/West Coast @ 7.20 (Sportsbet)
GOLD COAST v NORTH MELBOURNE – METRICON STADIUM (7.10pm AEST)
North were solid against Adelaide last week, always looking in control. Perhaps they are leaving it to too few to do the work, with Goldstein, Swallow, Petrie putting in the usual effort with some class from Anthony and Ziebell. Against a better team the Roos would need more contributors but luckily for them, GCFC are not a better team. Back on the bottom of the ladder, the Gold Coast never bottled it against the Eagles which must have been pleasing for Guy McKenna, and big man Zac Smith is having a wonderful debut season, but I think the young players won’t recover to well from a long road trip and expect North to take the chocolates, especially with first team players, Firrito and Bastinac back in the side.
TIP: North Melbourne by 31 points
JIMMY’S BET: North Melbourne to win @ 1.33 (Centrebet)
JIMMY’S BET: Gary Ablett Jnr Most Disposals Group A @ 2.75 (TAB Sportsbet)
GEELONG v HAWTHORN – MCG (7.10pm AEST)
These teams have built up quite a rivalry over recent times and with both teams in the Top 4 and in good form, this should be another blockbuster clash. Interestingly, looking at the recent history reveals Geelong has won the last 5 meetings between these two proud clubs, however the average margin is just 7.8 points over that time, so Geelong seems to just have the knack of getting over the line in the close ones. Huge inclusions for both teams with Franklin returning from his late withdrawal, and half man, half machine ,Paul Chapman, adding a lot to Geelong’s already strong list. It’s hard to tip against an undefeated team, so I’ll go for Geelong, knowing that it will be close and Hawthorn could easily spring a surprise.
TIP: Geelong by 9 points
JIMMY’S BET: Geelong by 1-19 points @ 4.25 (TAB Sportsbet)
JIMMY’S BET: Sam Mitchell Most Disposals Group 2 @ 3.50 (TAB Sportsbet)
CARLTON v BRISBANE – ETIHAD STADIUM (1.10pm AEST)
Carlton took a while to dispense with Port last week, trailing at half but with the young Port team fading the blues took control, kicking 7.4 in the last quarter to an amazing 0.0 to the Power, quite a fade out. Coming up against 15th placed Brisbane should be just a formality for the Blues and will mainly be hoping that key players Kruezer and Bower get through their first game back unscathed. Brisbane welcome back ball magnet Tom Rockliff and reveal yet another youngster with Mitch Golby making his debut this weekend for the lions.
TIP: Carlton by 64 points
JIMMY’S BET: Carlton by 60+ @ 2.55 (Centrebet)
SYDNEY v RICHMOND – SCG (2.10pm AEST)
Richmond became the latest team to succumb to the curse of the bye last week, again indicating that there is no substitute for form and the rhythm gained from weekly games may outweigh the need for rest. It won’t get any easier against Sydney either, with the swans sitting comfortably inside the Top 8, with a solid away win against the Lions. Richmond did win the only game between these two teams last year, but the swans clearly have the wood over the tigers, winning the 8 previous encounters.
TIP: Sydney by 45 points
JIMMY’S BET: Sydney to win by 40 or over @ 2.85 (Sportsbet)
FREMANTLE v ESSENDON – PATTERSONS STADIUM (4.40pm AEST)
There is a lot to play for in this fixture with both teams’ fortunes dipping recently; they have been left side by side on the ladder. With Sydney hot favourites, both these teams will be desperate to keep pace with the swans and fight for the prize of 5th spot and a home final. Both teams have some big ins this week at the selection table, with the Dockers welcoming back Michael Barlow after his broken leg, although he is still on the extended bench at this stage, and Essendon regaining its skipper Jobe Watson as well as young KPP Michael Hurley. It’s a close call this one, but I’m siding with Freo purely because of the home ground advantage.
TIP: Fremantle by 22 points
JIMMY’S BET: Halftime/Fulltime Double Fre/Fre @ 2.35 (TAB Sportsbet)
QUEEN’S BIRTHDAY MONDAY
MELBOURNE v COLLINGWOOD – MCG (2.10pm AEST)
Mick Malthouse has had to ring the changes this week due to some forced outs, Swan and Beams leave the team with injury while Thomas has been suspended for 1 match for his strike on tagger Clint Jones. It really shouldn’t worry Collingwood too much against 9th placed Melbourne with the Pies still in cruise control this year. Melbourne would dearly love a win to push for a Top 8 spot, especially with one of Fremantle or Essendon most likely losing this weekend, but the Dees just don’t have the class or experience to go with Collingwood and should come a brave second on Monday.
TIP: Collingwood by 41 points
JIMMY’S BET: Collingwood by 40-59 @ 4.80 (Sportsbet)