Well after a disappointing Round 11, where we lost $54.50 for the round, we certainly bounced back strongly for Round 12, with a very healthy profit of $250.20 for the suggested bets, a season high return. A couple of the Most Disposals came through, which always offers good odds, but it was the Multi where the big money was made, $145.40 to be exact. Hopefully this week will bring similar good fortune.
Season Betting Tally (After Round 12)
Wagered = $1180 – $10 per suggested bet
Collected = $1465.50
Profit/Loss = + $285.50
% Profit/Loss = + 24.2%
Tips = 67.5*
*Note: The draw is treated differently depending on your tipping competition. I have assumed it to be 0.5 tips.
CHEEKY AFL MULTI
Sam Mitchell Most Disposals Group A @ 2.25
Richmond under 39.5 points @ 2.80
Geelong under 39.5 points @ 2.20
Combined Odds @ 13.86 (TAB Sportsbet)
FRIDAY NIGHT
WESTERN BULLDOGS v ADELAIDE – ETIHAD STADIUM (7.40pm AEST)
With both teams on a four game losing streak, there will be a lot of pride to play for on Friday night. Although both teams still mathematically stand a chance of making the eight, it would need a significant turnaround in form for either team to even think about finals at this stage. The Doggies have won their last 3 against the Crows and the return of key players Adam Cooney and Lindsey Gilbee should be enough to get the Bulldogs over the line on Friday night. It’s pretty much Scotty Thompson and the rest at the Crows this year; expect the tireless midfielder to be in the action again.
TIP: Bulldogs by 30 points
JIMMY’S BET: Western Bulldogs Halftime/Fulltime Double @ 1.42 (TAB Sportsbet)
JIMMY’S BET: Scott Thompson Most Disposals @ 3.50 (TAB Sportsbet)
SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HAWTHORN v GOLD COAST – AURORA STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)
The Gold Coast match couldn’t have come at a better time for the Hawks, after losing Jarryd Roughead for the season last week in the tight tussle with Geelong, as well as injuries to Renouf, Young, and Guerra the hawks are looking a bit thin. Luckily they travel to one of their favourite grounds in Launceston to take on a young Gold Coast side coming off another belting this season, this time at the hands of North Melbourne to the tune of 59 points. The loss of promising youngsters Zac Smith and David Swallow to injury won’t help the Suns cause either, with a big Hawthorn win the obvious prediction. It’s hard to find value for the punters in this game, if you’re game to take the line I think the Gold Coast at +70.5 is not a bad option, but I will be trying to predict the possession shootout, sticking with the reliable Sammy Mitchell to beat Gazza this week, hoping that Sewell puts a fair bit of time into the little master.
TIP: Hawthorn by 77 points
JIMMY’S BET: Hawthorn by 60+ points @ 1.55 (Centrebet)
JIMMY’S BET: Sam Mitchell Most Disposals Group A @ 2.25 (TAB Sportsbet)
ESSENDON v NORTH MELBOURNE – ETIHAD STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)
A tough game to call this one, a month ago the Bombers were flying and the Roos were struggling and now James Hird’s men have lost their last 3 and are just hanging on to eight position on the ladder while North have a nice little 2 wins on the trot and have moved up to 12th. Will Essendon’s extended stay in Perth effect their preparation? Perhaps it would matter a little more if North Melbourne hadn’t travelled as well. Hird has certainly y swung the changes at the selection table, with 5 INS, including Brent Stanton, however losing the experience of Hille and Welsh could hinder them. North bring in solid defender Grima, and exciting forward Sam Wright to add some pace to the Roo boys. I think the bombers will still be just a little too quick for North and expect them to win by a whisker.
TIP: Essendon by 21 points
JIMMY’S BET: Essendon to win by 1-24 points @ 3.45 (Centrebet)
JIMMY’S BET: Drew Petrie Most Goals @ 5.00 (TAB Sportsbet)
SATURDAY NIGHT
BRISBANE v RICHMOND – GABBA (7.10pm AEST)
The Tigers were given plenty of chances last week against the Swans with Sydney kicking 9.21 for the game when they really should have put the Tigers away by 3QT. A new game brings fresh hope though for the Tigers, especially when they play 15th placed Brisbane, a team Richmond has had some success against in recent times, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters. Brisbane swap one injury prone player for another with Adcock going out with a hand fracture and Josh Drummond returning to provide some rebound from the defensive 50. These teams met earlier this year in Round 6 with the Tigers running all over the Lions in the last quarter to take the chocolates. Brisbane have regained their Captain Jonathon Brown since that match, however they have lost key defender Daniel Merrett, making it tough to find a matchup for Jack Riewoldt.
TIP: Richmond by 19 points
JIMMY’S BET: Richmond by 1-39 points @ 2.90 TAB Sportsbet)
ST KILDA v GEELONG – MCG (7.10pm AEST)
The Saints have put together a nice little run of form lately winning 3 from their last 4, while the Cats just keep on keeping on, winning all their games so far this season and, if they can get over the Saints on Saturday night, there is a strong chance with a weak draw in the second half of the year that they will go into their final H&A game of the year against the Pies undefeated. I don’t need to tell you about the history here, these two teams have been pretty much going game for game for the past 3 years, with Geelong just getting over the line in Round 1 this year, in a scrappy low scoring affair. St Kilda are strengthened at the selection table with Montagna and Blake returning while Geelong is weakened with the loss of Brownlow fancy Joel Selwood for 4 weeks through suspension, after the behind the play hit that left Brent Guerra with a perforated ear drum. Still it’s hard to see the Saints suddenly increasing their form enough to challenge Geelong.
TIP: Geelong by 34 points
JIMMY’S BET: Geelong by 1-39 @ 2.10 (Sportsbet)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
MELBOURNE v FREMANTLE – MCG (1.10pm AEST)
This fixture has gone the way of the home team for the last 5 outings, a habit which Freo will want to break if they are serious about playing finals this year. Fremantle snapped a 2 game losing streak last round beating the Bombers comfortably at home, while Melbourne were completely outclassed by Collingwood, even without some key pies playing. Freo look likely to finally regain midfielder Michael Barlow this week, with Mundy and Ballantyne going out of the side, while Neville Jetta is the only confirmed out for Melbourne after their big loss, with their final side to be announced Friday night. I think on paper Freo are the better side and Melbourne odds are a bit flattering due to the home ground advantage, Dockers for me.
TIP: Fremantle by 45 points
JIMMY’S BET: Fremantle by 25+ @ 3.75 (Centrebet)
CARLTON v SYDNEY – ETIHAD STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)
Sydney used to be quite a hoodoo team for the Blues, but in recent times the games have been split equally with a 2-2 record for both teams, with Carlton winning the most recent duel in Round 6 this year by 16 points. I would expect the Blues to win again; this time on their home turf, but Sydney never like to give in some a smaller margin is predicted.
TIP: Carlton by 22 points
JIMMY’S BET: Sydney at the Line (+23.5) @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)
WEST COAST v PORT ADELAIDE – PATERSONS STADIUM (4.40pm AEST)
This is probably a fixture where recent form counts for nothing. Port Adelaide have a 7/2 record against West Coast over the Past 5 Years however the teams could hardly have more disparate fortunes this year. West Coast sit 6th on the ladder with only 4 losses to their name this year, while Port have managed just 2 wins this year and are coming off the cursed bye. Future leader Chris Masten’s omission is the only team news of note, with the squads to be finalized on Friday. It’s tough to find any value in this game at all in terms of a wager, so if you are good at picking margins, have your best shot. I’m going with 48 points to the Eagles but feel free to have your own estimate.
TIP: West Coast by 48 points
JIMMY’S BET: West Coast by 40-59 @ 4.00 (TAB Sportsbet)