Last weekend was another successful one for this column with $47.50 added to the season profit, which now sits above $350. We also tipped all 8 winners for the first time this season. We also saw St Kilda sneak into the top 8 for the first time in 2011 as their 103 point win over the hapless Crows catapulted them above Essendon on percentage. It would seem the Saints are there to stay, so unless something drastic happens to Sydney or Fremantle, the top 8 is set for the rest of the year.
Season Betting Tally (After Round 18)
Wagered = $1820 – $10 per suggested bet
Collected = $2185.30
Profit/Loss = + $365.30
% Profit/Loss = + 20.1%
Round 19 CHEEKY AFL MULTI
Geelong to win by 25 points or more @ 1.33
St Kilda to kick more goals than behinds @ 1.41
Fremantle at the line (+14.5) @ 1.92
Collingwood at the line (-46.5) @ 1.92
Combined Odds @ 6.90 (Centrebet)
FRIDAY NIGHT
NORTH MELBOURNE v CARLTON – ETIHAD STADIUM (7.40pm AEST)
PREVIEW: Carlton captain Chris Judd was in vintage form last weekend tearing up the MCG. The Blues number 5 was seemingly always in possession of the football and was more damaging than usual with his disposal. It was the start of a big weekend for the champ as he then became a father for the first time. This off field activity would distract most players, but I suspect Judd will be looking to perform even better to mark the occasion. Meanwhile, North Melbourne have suddenly become the form side outside the top 8. It has been a remarkable recovery by the ‘Roos who sat winless at the bottom of the ladder 5 rounds into the season. The turnaround is almost solely due to the dukes of Drew Petrie. ‘The Dish’ has clunked everything that has come his way and consistently been kicking goals. I remember watching this fixture last year and North’s Lindsay Thomas booted a match winning 7 goals. Carlton fans will be happy there won’t be a repeat this year as Thomas is now sadly out of form, and out of the team. North Melbourne also managed to stifle Carlton’s creative midfield last year, but I can’t see that happening again as the Blue boys have improved a lot over the past 12 months. Despite some potential heroics from Petrie against an undersized Blues backline I think this will be a straightforward Carlton win.
TIP: Carlton to win by 15 points
ANDY’S BET: Carlton to win by 1-39 points @ 2.25 (Sportsbet)
ANDY’S BET: Drew Petrie to kick the most goals @ 7.00 (Sportingbet)
SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERN BULLDOGS v WEST COAST – ETIHAD STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: Not very often an AFL side makes 7 changes to its team from one week to the next, but that is exactly what Rodney Eade’s Western Bulldogs have done after back to back defeats. Eade has swung the selection axe with real force. Previously known as a dependable rebounding defender, Lindsay Gilbee has been dropped for the second time this season. The Bulldogs are definitely going to miss 2008 Brownlow medalist Adam Cooney and the dashing Shaun Higgins, both sidelined by knee injuries. The Dogs do get back veterans Ryan Hargrave and Bob Murphy, but it is still grim selection reading for their fans. The Eagles have also been negatively impacted upon by injuries in the lead up to this one. Star full forward Josh Kennedy’s eye was injured when struck by a tennis ball at training today. This freak accident means the player who kicked 10 goals in the corresponding fixture earlier this season will miss on Saturday. Exciting ruckman Nic Naitanui will also miss with a mysterious injury that has been officially listed as soreness. The Eagles ran out massive 123 point winners when these teams met just over 2 months ago and it would take a brave man to bet against an out of sorts Bulldogs team being able to turn that form line right around.
TIP: West Coast to win by 27 points
ANDY’S BET: West Coast to win by 16 points or more @ 2.25 (TAB Sportsbet)
ANDY’S BET: Matthew Boyd for most disposals in Group A @ 2.00 (TAB Sportsbet)
SATURDAY AFTERNOON
GEELONG v MELBOURNE – SKILLED STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: This match is being played at Skilled Stadium. Geelong have won their last 27 matches at Skilled Stadium. Don’t muck about, just load up on the blue and whites for another procession. In the four games they have played on their home Skilled Stadium turf in 2011, Geelong has won all four by an average margin of 64 points, with their ‘smallest’ win being ‘only’ 52 points. Obviously the Cats are very, very short odds for the win, but you can certainly find some value in the margin betting. I am a conservative chap so have gone for the best line bet I could find, however you can find even better odds for a Cats win of 60 points or more. With Geelong full forward James Podsiadly out, I like the look of a fresh Steve Johnson for most goals.
TIP: Geelong to win by 65 points
ANDY’S BET: Geelong to win at the line (-45.5) @ 2.01 (Pinnacle Sports)
ANDY’S BET: Steve Johnson to kick the most goals @ 5.50 (TAB Sportsbet)
SATURDAY NIGHT
GOLD COAST v ST KILDA – METRICON STADIUM (7.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: The Saints are flying at the moment. The red, white and blacks have only been beaten by the top two teams – Collingwood and Geelong – over the last two and a half months. Every other opponent has been severely dealt with. This week’s opposition is the Gold Coast Suns who have only won three times all year. A victory shouldn’t be a problem for St Kilda, even without skipper and key forward Nick Riewoldt. My interesting stat for this game is all about goal kicking accuracy. St Kilda are definitely sharp shooters, and to prove it the Saints have kicked more goals than behinds in 10 of their last 11 contests. In contrast, the Gold Coast’s opposition have scored more goals than points in 14 of their 16 matches all season. I believe the Gold Coast’s opponents kick so accurately for goal because the Suns are a poor team and give up too many scoring shots from directly in front of the goals.
TIP: St Kilda to win by 60 points
ANDY’S BET: St Kilda to kick more goals than behinds @ 1.41 (Centrebet)
ANDY’S BET: St Kilda to win by 40 points or more @ 1.81 (Centrebet)
FREMANTLE v HAWTHORN – PATERSONS STADIUM (7.40pm AEST)
PREVIEW: This is a replay of last year’s Elimination Final at the same venue. In that one, the finals hardened Hawks were meant to bully the young Dockers. It didn’t happen and Fremantle were comfortable winners. I still think Hawthorn have a better team than Fremantle, but Freo very rarely get beaten by visiting teams at the Patersons Stadium ‘house of pain’. As a general rule I don’t bet against them when they’re playing at home. The young Dockers are sensational value to repeat their performance from last season and are my sneaky head to head bet of the round.
TIP: Fremantle to win by 10 points
ANDY’S BET: Fremantle to win @ 2.80 (TAB Sportsbet)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COLLINGWOOD v ESSENDON – MCG (2.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: No Dustin Fletcher, no Michael Hurley, no Tayte Pears and no Cale Hooker. No Essendon? Even though midfield ball magnet Jobe Watson returns, the red and blacks defensive stocks are as bare as my beer fridge after another big Saturday night! In further bad news for the Bombers, the Magpies can recall two Premiership players to their squad, ruckman Darren Jolly and forward flanker Dayne Beams. Jolly is a big in for the Pies and played a very influential final quarter in the cracking Anzac Day match between these teams earlier this year. That match was one of the best of the season with the young, exciting Bombers going toe to toe with the defending champions for three and a half quarters of pulsating and quality football before Collingwood snuck away. The long campaign has caught up with Essendon, and their early season impetus is noticeably fading. Their season depends on a good result here, but who wants to play the defending champions right now?
TIP: Collingwood to win by 57 points
ANDY’S BET: Collingwood to win at the line (-45.5) @ 2.03 (Pinnacle Sports)
ADELAIDE v PORT ADELAIDE – AAMI STADIUM (4.40pm AEST)
PREVIEW: This match is a lot like the Fremantle v West Coast game last weekend, but also significantly different. Confused? Don’t be. Adelaide and Port Adelaide are bitter city rivals who take this match for local bragging rights as seriously as a final. Both teams are also in similar form and are close on the ladder. That is where the similarities to the Freo/West Coast match unfortunately end. Whereas Fremantle and West Coast are fighting at the top of the table, the Crows and the Power are struggling at the bottom. Adelaide also lost coach Neil Craig during the week. Craig resigned from the post after his side was humiliated to the tune of 103 points by St Kilda last Friday night. The Crows should be flooded with offers from prospective coaches as they have a very decent list, highlighted by the prolific Scott Thompson in midfield, the dependable Ben Rutten at full back, the exciting pair of Kurt Tippett and Taylor Walker in attack, impressive young ruckman Sam Jacobs and future AFL champion Patrick Dangerfield in midfield and across half forward. Neither side has shown enough to suggest they can win, which brings me to a final comparison to last weekend’s Fremantle v West Coast game. For that one I couldn’t separate the two teams and successfully decided on a bet of any margin 24 points or less. I can’t separate these teams either!
TIP: Adelaide to win by 8 points
ANDY’S BET: Any margin by 24 points or less @ 1.95 (Sportingbet)