Last weekend was another successful one for this column with $17.90 added to the season profit, which snuck ever closer to the $400 mark. The big story of the week was Geelong’s record breaking win over Melbourne. The Cats embarrassed the awful Demons by a 186 point margin, the biggest win in the clubs history and the second largest in AFL history. My line bet of a 46 point or greater Geelong win was easy money, albeit shown to be ultra-conservative! The main interest this week surrounds the teams fighting for positions in the lower half of the top 8. St Kilda and Fremantle meet on Friday night in a clash between 8th and 7th, while the next night, 9th placed Essendon host 6th placed Sydney.
Season Betting Tally (After Round 19)
Wagered = $1940 – $10 per suggested bet
Collected = $2323.20
Profit/Loss = + $383.20
% Profit/Loss = + 19.8%
Round 20 CHEEKY AFL MULTI
Carlton to win by 25 points or more @ 1.40
Essendon to win by 1-39 points @ 2.80
West Coast at the line (-42.5) @ 1.92
Combined Odds @ 7.50 (Centrebet)
ST KILDA v FREMANTLE – ETIHAD STADIUM (7.40pm AEST)
PREVIEW: I am getting on the bandwagon early. St Kilda can win this year’s premiership! I have seen enough from the Saints over the last 3 months to suggest they are up with Hawthorn and Carlton as serious challengers to Collingwood and Geelong when the finals start in only five weeks’ time. The red, white and blacks have lost to both Collingwood and Geelong this season, but have drastically improved since those encounters. Nick Riewoldt is fit, firing and marking everything, Stephen Milne is in rare goal scoring form, Nick Dal Santo has been arguably the best player in the league over the last 2 months and even Brendan ‘Mr Serious’ Goddard has cracked a smile or two. Yes, things are finally looking good for the Moorabbin men. I think the Saints should be comfortably at least a goal a quarter better than the Aaron Sandilands-less Dockers in this one. I always like to look for an exotic bet in the Friday night fixture and this week I have turned my attention to the TAB’s most disposals group B. The two men I think can win this are St Kilda’s Jack Steven and Jason Gram. Steven has taken a big step this year and improved each week in an ever increasing midfield role, while Gram has continued to pick up cheap kicks across half back. Steven has amassed at least 20 disposals in 9 of his last 10 matches and is the more consistent of the two. Gram has only gathered more possessions than Steven in 1 of St Kilda’s last 5 matches.
TIP: St Kilda to win by 33 points
ANDY’S BET: St Kilda to win by 25 points or more @ 1.50 (Sportsbet)
ANDY’S BET: Jack Steven most disposals in Group B @ 4.00 (TAB Sportsbet)
GEELONG v GOLD COAST – SKILLED STADIUM (1.40pm AEST)
PREVIEW: Last week I told you Geelong had won each of their four home matches this season at Skilled Stadium by 52 points or more. Last week’s incredible 186 point triumph bumped up their average winning margin on home turf to 88 points. Totally amazing! Their visitors this week are the vastly inexperienced Gold Coast outfit who travel without injured skipper Gary Ablett. No Ablett will most likely mean no Suns this Saturday afternoon, and Geelong are a huge chance to eclipse the 100 point margin for the second successive week.
TIP: Geelong to win by 111 points
ANDY’S BET: Geelong to win by 100 points or more @ 2.42 (Centrebet)
CARLTON v MELBOURNE – MCG (2.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: Oh dear. It has been a disastrous few days for Melbourne. They were flattened by a margin thought to be unachievable in modern day football and then sacked their coach Dean Bailey. Bailey had been a figure associated with a new era at the football club, steadily guiding them out of one of the darkest chapters in the football club’s history. That chapter is far from finishing after the events of the last week. A game of football this Saturday would seem the perfect way for the Demon players to get out on the park, forget about everything, and just play some footy. Unless they cop another pasting that is. Then the whole vicious cycle would roll on again. Carlton are in decent form and should be too good for a Melbourne team missing Colin Sylvia and Liam Jurrah. Those two were dropped by caretaker coach Todd Viney and are just about the only two Demons capable of winning a match for Melbourne. I can’t see anything but a Carlton success here. I have again gone to the most disposals group B for a second betting interest and Mitch Robinson is the man I like in this market. Robinson had gathered at least 22 possessions in each of his previous 8 games before ‘only’ finding the pill 18 times last weekend. That game was played at Etihad Stadium and this one is at the MCG, a ground Robinson really enjoys. The Carlton number 12 averages 29 touches over his past four matches at this ground. Look for another bold showing from the aggressive ball winner.
TIP: Carlton to win by 46 points
ANDY’S BET: Mitch Robinson most disposals in Group B @ 2.25 (TAB Sportsbet)
ESSENDON v SYDNEY – ETIHAD STADIUM (7.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: Under normal circumstances I would be selecting the Sydney Swans to succeed in this Saturday night sporting showdown. But these are not normal circumstances. Essendon have three key players back and will eagerly return to their favourite, slippery Etihad Stadium surface. The Bombers have won 5 of their 6 matches in football’s artificial stadium this campaign, while Sydney rarely play at the ground. The Swans can generally be relied upon to do what they’re meant to do week in week out, but I’m siding with the stats this time and tipping a bomber blitz.
TIP: Essendon to win by 12 points
ANDY’S BET: Essendon to win by 1-39 points @ 2.80 (Centrebet)
PORT ADELAIDE v COLLINGWOOD – AAMI STADIUM (7.40pm AEST)
PREVIEW: In the corresponding fixture last year, Port Adelaide coach Mark Williams was leading the team for the last time, announcing his resignation on the eve of the match. On that occasion the Power surged to a 6 goal lead early in the second term before eventually being overrun. This time Port stalwart Chad Cornes has announced his retirement as a player and confirmed Saturday night’s clash with Collingwood will be his last in the Port Adelaide teal. Collingwood are too good and will win comfortably, but Port will give an extra effort for their outgoing mate and keep it to a respectable margin.
TIP: Collingwood to win by 54 points
ANDY’S BET: Port Adelaide at the line (+74.5) @ 1.92 (Centrebet)
BRISBANE v ADELAIDE – GABBA (1.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: If this was a soccer match I would be all over the nil all draw as both teams have been awful this season and invented new ways to lose each weekend. Adelaide have been the slightly less awful and will be in good spirits after vanquishing their cross town rival last weekend. It will be tight all match, but the Lions have that little bit less roar about them without Jonathan Brown.
TIP: Adelaide to win by 15 points
ANDY’S BET: Any result 24 points or less @ 2.00 (Sportingbet)
ANDY’S BET: Adelaide to win @ 2.25 (Centrebet)
HAWTHORN v NORTH MELBOURNE – AURORA STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)
PREVIEW: In recent times Hawthorn have been a pretty safe bet to win their ‘home’ games at Tasmania’s Aurora Stadium. The Hawks have won 13 of their 19 matches down there, although those with a keen attention to detail will know that North Melbourne have actually beaten them twice at AFL football’s coldest venue. Luke Hodge returns to the Hawthorn side and his hardness at the ball, along with the prolific Sam Mitchell, should inspire the team to a comfortable victory. North Melbourne also lack an adequate match up for the dangerous Lance Franklin – ominous.
TIP: Hawthorn to win by 38 points
ANDY’S BET: Hawthorn to win at the line (-37.5) @ 2.05 (TAB Sportsbet)
WEST COAST v RICHMOND – PATERSONS STADIUM (4.40pm AEST)
PREVIEW: Richmond have lost five on the spin and are playing some really ugly football. They travel west this weekend without skipper Chris Newman and will be battling to stay in touch with their top four chasing opponents, West Coast. As I have been repeating since early in the season, the Eagles have got a functional forward press, the best ruck combination, damaging key forwards and a decent fleet of midfielders. I think they will beat the vulnerable Tigers by a very big margin. Get on it.
TIP: West Coast to win by 65 points
ANDY’S BET: West Coast to win by over 60 points @ 3.05 (Centrebet)
ANDY’s BET: West Coast at the line (-41.5) @ 1.98 (Pinnacle Sports)