Tournament winner odds (bet365)
Roger Federer: 1.50
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: 5.50
Novak Djokovic: 9.00
David Ferrer: 10.00
Tomas Berdych: 21.00
The Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London continue tonight when Djokovic plays Tipsarevic and Ferrer plays Berdych. Ferrer is almost assured progression to the semi-finals, while Djokovic and Berdych need to win to have a chance of joining him. Should both Djokovic and Berdych win tonight, it is possible they could both progress at the expense of Ferrer, depending on the net sets and games for and against. Interestingly, should Ferrer and Tipsarevic both win, then either Djokovic of Berdych will still progress depending again on their relative net sets and games scores. You can follow all of the action from the official website here.
Below are the current group standings with each player’s win-loss record in brackets.
1. Ferrer (2-0)
2. Djokovic (1-1)
3. Berdych (1-1)
4. Tipsarevic (0-1 – replaced Murray in the tournament)
5. Murray (0-1 – withdrawn from tournament)
1. Federer (3-0)
2. Tsonga (2-1)
3. Nadal (1-2)
4. Fish (0-3)
Ferrer has been the biggest surprise of the tournament, beating Murray and Djokovic to take the lead in Group B. Federer remains the tournament favourite at 1.50 odds.
November 25th (local time) head to heads
Djokovic v Tipsarevic
Tipsarevic was brought into the tournament with a day’s notice after Murray withdrew injured. Tipsarevic played Berdych first up and battled to a 6-3 3-6 6(6)-7 loss. Djokovic beat Berdych by a similar score line in his first match before falling 6-3 6-1 to Ferrer. Djokovic enjoys a 3-0 record against Tipsarevic, winning their most recent meeting 7-6(2) 6-7(3) 6-0 3-0 after Tipsarevic retired. In every match they’ve played Tipsarevic has won at least one set.
I expect Djokovic to win tonight, but at 1.30 odds I don’t believe it’s worth backing him. His form hasn’t been the best by his standards, and Tipsarevic certainly has the game to beat Djokovic should a sub-par Djokovic turn up. One wager that is worth considering for this fixture is to back over 2.5 sets at 2.60 odds.
Ferrer v Berdych
Ferrer has been the surprise of the tournament. Bookmakers had penned him down to lose both of his first fixtures, but he has come through undefeated. Berdych lost to Djokovic in three sets before beating Tipsarevic in three. Both of those fixtures went to a third set tie-breaker. Ferrer, on the other hand, remains the only player to have not lost a set in the tournament. He beat Murray 6-4 7-5 then Djokovic 6-3 6-1. Ferrer has a 5-2 head to head record against Berdych and has not lost to him since 2005. In their most recent – and only hard court – meeting between the two Ferrer won 4-6 7-5 6-4.
I agree with the bookmakers for installing Ferrer as the favourite at 1.77 odds. Given the form he’s in I think 1.77 is still reasonable value, and would back Ferrer at those odds.