For those who enjoy betting on English football, a fantastic free resource is KickOff.co.uk.
The service provides full-time result, first goal scorer and correct score predictions based on historical data.
These predictions are available for all Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two fixtures.
The algorithm works as follows (source):
“Teams are assigned an attack and defence rating by comparing their historical performance with the League average. For a given match, the expected number of goals is calculated by comparing a side’s attack strength against the opponent’s defensive abilities. Goals, shots on and off target are weighted to account for home advantage. The expected goals are then distributed across a range of outcomes using the Poisson Formula. For example if we expect a team to score two goals, what is the probability they will score 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 goals etc.”
Below are additional screenshots for an upcoming Chelsea vs Manchester United match.