The following are previews and betting tips for round 2 of the 2012 AFL season.
Season tally so far
Bets = 11 units
Won = 22.35 units
Profit/Loss = +11.35 units (103% profit)
Brisbane Lions v Carlton
Another week and another Thursday night footy fixture confirms the AFL season is full steam ahead, and with fixtures dotted right across this long Easter weekend, us footy fans will be in our element.
These teams both put iffy pre-season form behind them to post impressive victories in Round 1. Carlton were almost unrecognisable from the team that went winless through the whole of the NAB Cup as most of their star players returned to the side and dramatically lifted the Blues’ intensity and skill level. Brisbane were surprisingly dominant against Melbourne last Saturday, with the Lions cruising to a 41 point triumph. Tom Rockliff again underlined his star quality booting 3 goals during cameo stints up forward and Carlton will need to have a plan to nullify the midfielder when he takes a rest in attack.
The Blues may not have been at their best last weekend, however I think that makes their result all the more impressive, and scary. Although they had an even contribution from many players, stars like Chris Judd, Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs were effective without playing near their potential. Matthew Kreuzer was Carlton’s best player, impressing with his ruckwork, aerial marking contests and pressure when the ball hit ground level. This is very significant because I think Kreuzer is the most important player in Carlton’s premiership challenge.
The one area Brisbane will think they have a chance is in attack. If – and it is a very big if – the Lions can get on top in the middle and generate enough forward 50 entries, they will feel confident about scoring against an under-manned Blues backline. Personally, I think Carlton’s defence is one of the best at defending as a team, and by that I mean their players often leave their own opponents to cover for a teammate who is out of position. So, even though Carlton might be missing some important defenders, those losses will be minimised.
Carlton are the much better team and should win comfortably, however keep an eye out for Brisbane’s two midfield champions at opposite ends of their careers – Simon Black is the master and Tom Rockliff is his apprentice.
Andy’s tip: Carlton to win by 27 points
Andy’s bet: 1.5 units on Carlton to win by 16 points or more @ 1.75 (Sportingbet)