Formula 1 – German Grand Prix Preview

The 2012 Formula 1 season approaches the halfway mark as it heads to the German Grand Prix at Hockenheimring. This article provides a race preview and takes a look at the betting odds.

Webber’s dramatic victory at Silverstone after Alonso led for most of the race gave the Australian his second win of the season. Alonso and Webber are the only two drivers with more than one victory this year and the two sit first and second in the driver standings, respectively.

2012 Season Results

Below are the 2012 season results to date.

Driver and Constructor standings

Alonso’s 2nd place in Britain sees him retain top spot, with Vettel moving up to 3rd courtesy of McLaren’s poor showing at Silverstone.

1 Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) – 129
2 Mark Webber (Red Bull) – 116
3 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull) – 100
4 Lewis Hamilton (McLaren) – 92
5 Kimi Räikkönen (Lotus) – 83
6 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) – 75
7 Romain Grosjean (Lotus) – 61
8 Jenson Button (McLaren) – 50
9 Sergio Perez (Sauber) – 39
10 Pastor Maldonado (Williams) – 29
11 Paul di Resta (Force India) – 27
12 Michael Schumacher (Mercedes) – 23
13 Felipe Massa (Ferrari) – 23
14 Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber) – 21
15 Bruno Senna (Williams) – 18
16 Nico Hulkenberg (Force India) – 17

In the constructor standings McLaren have dropped from 2nd to 4th after Hamilton and Button finished 8th and 10th at Silverstone. Their drop in pace over the last two races will be alarming to McLaren fans.

1 Red Bull Racing-Renault – 216
2 Ferrari – 152
3 Lotus-Renault – 144
4 McLaren-Mercedes – 142
5 Mercedes – 98
6 Sauber-Ferrari – 60
7 Williams-Renault – 47
8 Force India-Mercedes – 44
9 STR-Ferrari – 6
10 Caterham-Renault – 0
11 Marussia-Cosworth – 0
12 HRT-Cosworth – 0

Hockenheimring Circuit History

The German Grand Prix has been held at Hockenheimring on thirty-two occasions – the most recent of which was in 2010. Hockenheimring has been the primary host of the German Grand Prix since 1977, but has been rotated with Nürburgring since 2007.

The circuit is almost completely flat, featuring very little change in elevation. The circuit was drastically modified in 2002 after Formula 1 officials demanded it be shortened. Organisers removed the long, forest straights section in favour of more tight corners. The current circuit is 4.6 km long as opposed to the pre-2002 design which was over 6.8 km in length. A number of drivers and team principals have criticised the new design, calling it a more homogenised circuit that lacks the character of the previous design. Click here to see a comparison of the current track compared to the previous design.

Below are the most recent German Grand Prix / Hockenheimring results. Note that Hockenheimring hosted the European Grand Prix – not the German Grand Prix – in 2007.

Last Year

Note that the following discussion is of the 2010 German Grand Prix because the 2011 event was held at Nürburgring.

Vettel qualified on pole, just 0.002 second ahead of Alonso, with Massa third.

On race day Massa took the lead from third on the grid, with Vettel also overtaken by Alonso to slip back to third. Red Bull responded by pitting Vettel early in an attempt to give him clean air. Ferrari covered the move by pitting both drivers in quick succession. Later in the race, in a controversial moment, Massa’s race engineer, Rob Smedley, said to him over the radio “Okay… so… Fernando is faster than you. Can you confirm you understood that message?” Massa replied by being slow to accelerate on the way out of the hairpin, giving Alonso the lead. Soon after this Smedley said to Massa over the radio “Ok good lad, just stick to it now. Sorry.” Massa succeded in defending a late charge from Vettel, with the race finishing Alonso 1st, Massa 2nd and Vettel 3rd.

2012 news and titbits

Williams driver Pastor Maldonado is under pressure after he caused a collision with Sergio Perez at Silverstone. He was handed a 10,000 euro fine and a reprimand by race stewards after the race. This is not Maldonado’s first penalty for causing an avoidable incident. The Venezuelan was handed a 10 place grid penalty in Monaco after making contact with Perez. He was also given a post-race drive-through penalty of 20 seconds after colliding with Lewis Hamilton in Valencia.

McLaren are surprisingly uncompetitive at the moment, with Hamilton and Button only managing 8th and 10th at Silverstone. The car’s lack of pace on the high-speed sections of Silverstone two weeks after it struggled on the slow-speed Valencia street circuit is a serious concern for McLaren fans. They arguably started the season with the fastest car, but have fallen behind Red Bull and Ferrari, who have both made strong improvements as the season has progressed.

Because Nürburgring hosted the German Grand Prix last year, this will be the first race at Hockenheimring with Pirelli Tyres. When the race was last run here in 2010 Bridgestone were the tyre providers.

German Grand Prix Preview

History suggests that you need to be on the front row of the grid to win the race. Since the circuit was redesigned in 2002, only one race winner had qualified outside the front row of the grid. That was in 2005 when Alonso won from 3rd after pole winner Räikkönen retired with a hydraulics problem. Four of the past eight winners had qualified on pole, while three had qualified second on the grid.

Silverstone showed how critical tyre choice is. Ferrari’s decision to start Alonso on the hard compound instead of the conventional use of softs cost him the race. Alonso finished the race on the soft compound, but the better race tyre towards the end of the race turned out to be the hard compound, which Webber was on.

German Grand Prix Betting

Below are the latest odds, subject to change.

McLaren’s current lack of pace makes the 4.60 and 6.00 odds on Hamilton to win pole and the race, respectively, look too short. It’s interesting to see that his teammate Button is 18.00 odds to qualify on pole and 16.00 odds to win the race. This goes to show how much Button has been struggling of late.

Vettel has won pole in two of the last three races, which justifies his short 2.60 odds to make it three from four.

Alonso is the most consistent performer at the moment, with four podium finishes in the last five races. The 1.75 odds on him to do the same this weekend seem fair value – especially in light of the fact that he was the last driver to win at Hockenheimring.

Räikkönen has picked up two fastest laps this year, including at Silverstone two weeks ago, so the 8.00 odds on him to repeat that feat seem reasonable.

Given that only one driver has won from outside of the front row on the grid in the eight races since the circuit was reconfigured, you may want to wait to see who makes the front row before committing to any race winner wagering.