The following are previews and betting tips for Round 5 of the 2013 AFL season
Season tally so far
Bets = 35.75 units
Won = 43.44 units
Profit/Loss = +7.69 units (21.5% profit)
Cheeky Multi: 1 unit on Geelong, Brisbane and Hawthorn to win by 40 points or more @ 6.34 (Sportsbet)
Fremantle vs. Richmond
Both teams started this season quite well, but are coming off disappointing losses last week. Richmond travel interstate for the first time this season and will hope to bounce straight back after a lacklustre second half display against Collingwood last week, while Fremantle will be looking to snap a two game losing streak.
The Dockers are again missing their two most important players, with Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands still sidelined, however the purple haze did perform quite well without their big guns against Hawthorn. Fremantle defender Luke McPharlin is an important inclusion for the Dockers, while Richmond have looked to youth and promoted high draft pick Nick Vlastuin for his debut.
Richmond had looked good in the opening three rounds, but were comprehensively outplayed by Collingwood in the third quarter last week, with the young Tigers really exposed defensively when the Magpies started getting their hands on the footy in the middle of the ground. Richmond are great when they are in possession, but still have a lot of improvement to make as a defensive group.
Fremantle rarely lose at Patersons Stadium, so I’m backing Ross Lyon’s Dockers to get the job done in front of their home fans this Friday night.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Fremantle to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20 (Sportsbet)
Greater Western Sydney vs. Gold Coast
Bragging rights are at stake in the early Saturday afternoon kick-off. The two new franchise clubs go head to head after sharing these contests one apiece last season. The Giants actually beat the Suns at this venue in Round 7 last year to claim their first ever victory in the big time, so both clubs will be desperate to win one of the more winnable games they will play this year.
In a blow for Gold Coast, bright young star Harley Bennell, a late withdrawal last week, is still missing through injury, meaning skipper Gary Ablett will again be required to try and single-handedly drag the Suns over the line.
I actually think the Giants are as good as the Suns, despite being a year behind in their development, but Ablett is the standout player and should lead his team to victory in a very competitive match.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Gold Coast to win by 39 points or less @ 2.30 (TAB Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Dylan Shiel most disposals in Group 2 @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)
Carlton vs. Adelaide
Carlton finally got their season rolling with a gutsy victory over West Coast in Perth last weekend, while Adelaide did what they were expected to do with their thrashing of the Western Bulldogs at AAMI Stadium.
Blues goalsneak Eddie Betts has recovered from a broken jaw and has been named to play in the forward line this Saturday, joining fellow aboriginal teammates Chris Yarran and Jeff Garlett in an explosive Carlton attack. Adelaide’s defenders will need to be switched on when the ball hits ground level!
Adelaide’s matchwinners are Paddy Dangerfield in the midfield and Taylor Walker up forward, but I think Carlton are actually well equipped to nullify their threats, with Andrew Carrazzo likely to tag Dangerfield and Michael Jamison a good option to match-up against Walker.
The Blues are back in town and their speedy forwards might run rings around the Crows.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Carlton to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20 (Multiple Sites)
Port Adelaide vs. West Coast
Port Adelaide’s great start to the season continued with a routine win over Gold Coast last weekend, while West Coast’s stuttering campaign continued as John Worsfold’s men were outran by a previously winless Carlton team.
Rugged West Coast defender Beau Waters returns after missing a couple of weeks with injury, which will be a welcome boost to a defence that was exposed for pace by Carlton last weekend, with Adam Selwood the small defender to lose his spot to Waters for a poor performance.
Port Adelaide’s early season successes have occurred because the Power onballers have been fit and firing, with Kane Cornes and Travis Boak particularly superb in the opening rounds. West Coast have a midfield that should be every bit as good as Port Adelaide’s so this will be a great test for the Power.
I am not confident, but think the Eagles might be able to halt the Power’s early season surge.
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on West Coast to win by 24 points or less @ 3.60 (Bet365, Sportsbet)
Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong
Another week and another pair of injuries to key Bulldogs players. So, with their squad already stretched, things could get really ugly for the Bulldogs this Saturday night against an unbeaten Geelong. The Cats are flying at the moment, notching up four big wins over finals contenders. Complete the sequence of Geelong premierships 2007, 2009, 2011…you know what comes next.
Midfield star Ryan Griffen and veteran forward Daniel Giansiracusa have both been sidelined from the Bulldogs team due to shoulder injuries, while damaging Geelong forward flanker Paul Chapman will miss with a hamstring injury. But while Griffen and Giansiracusa will be tough for the Doggies to replace, the Cats have plenty of players to help cover Chapman’s absence, with Steve Johnson, Matthew Stokes and Allen Christensen all likely to bob up across the half forward line.
Unfortunately for Doggies fans, this looks it will be a 10 goal hiding.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Geelong to win by 60 points or more @ 2.25 (TAB Sportsbet)
Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne
Brisbane will be glad to get away from Etihad Stadium for a while after losing there by 10 goals at the weekend, for the second time already this season! Melbourne, meanwhile, travel north in good spirits after surging with a 12 goal last quarter to beat GWS. Even though it was only the Giants, any win is a good win for Melbourne right now!
There is plenty of team news ahead of this match as Brisbane have been forced to leave out two of their prime movers. Dashing defender Pearce Hanley is suspended and Daniel Rich suffered a shoulder injury during training and will be out for two months. Normally this would open the door for Melbourne, however the Demons are without chief goal threat Mitch Clark with a foot injury, while Collingwood recruit Chris Dawes is still yet to debut in the red and blue.
Even with a few on the sidelines, Brisbane should be far too good for Melbourne at the Gabba.
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Brisbane to win by 25 points or more @ 1.53 (Centrebet, Sportsbet)
Hawthorn vs. North Melbourne
Both teams were winners last week, with Hawthorn overcoming Fremantle to secure a third successive victory, while North Melbourne were far too good for Brisbane and finally managed a first win of the season.
I will be tuning in for this match with great interest. My primary focus will be to watch Brian Lake debuting at full back for Hawthorn against North Melbourne marking machine Drew Petrie. The full back position has been Hawthorn’s achilles heel during the past two seasons and Lake, an off-season acquisition from the Bulldogs, looms as the final piece in the Hawks premiership puzzle.
I think Lake will prove to be a great pick-up for the Hawks and his team should be able to over-power a North Melbourne team that always appears to be a season or two away from progressing to the top echelon of clubs.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 30 points or more @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)