All-change in the English Premier League

It’s a case of “all-change here” in the English Premier League and this may throw up some great gambling opportunities. The fact is that the odds are anomalous and don’t fully reflect the changes going on.

In other words, those of us who like to study sporting history should be able to find some real value here – because English football has a way of surprising us.

This is what shrewd gambling is all about, of course. If we aren’t going to make value-based judgement calls on sports events, we may as well simply play online casino games such as blackjack or roulette; bet on games mainly of chance in other words. But on the other hand, Don Johnson, featured in the The Atlantic, won nearly $6 million playing blackjack in one night, single-handedly decimating the monthly revenue of Atlantic City’s Tropicana casino.

Nevertheless, finding anomalous value isn’t about selecting outright winners – so much as finding selections, which have a better chance of victory than the odds suggest. In this way, you’ll steadily come out ahead, though it’s a lot easier said than done.

Also, given the advent of the betting exchanges, you don’t actually need to find a winner top profit from successfully finding anomalous value – because if your selection outperforms as expected and the odds shorten, you can lay some or all of the bet back to guarantee a profit.

This certainly looks like it will be the case for next year’s English Premier League. The two top Manchester clubs will both have managerial changes. We already know that David Moyes will be at the helm at Old Trafford, of course, but is he really likely to steer the current champions to a repeat success in his first season at a mega club given the stiff completion? Well maybe – but the odds are far too stingy at just 2/1.

Their near neighbours are around the same price without a manager at the helm at all at the time of writing – though it looks a more or less done deal; Manuel Pellegrini now looks certain to be at the Etihad next year.

Meanwhile, Chelsea are third favourites at around 3/1 with a big gap, then, to Arsenal at 14/1, with Tottenham Hotspur at 25/1 and Liverpool at a best-priced 28/1.

The real value bet here looks to be Arsenal, though Liverpool and Spurs could be worth a look. Chelsea look like they’ll have the inimitable José Mourinho in charge at Stamford Bridge which shifts the whole picture, of course – and they look the value bet amongst the three big guns.

Arsenal, though, have finished their season in fine style and it looks like the squad is finally coming together. It will be a decade, this season, since The Gunners went a whole season unbeaten and if Wenger can get them gunning form the start of the season, they’ll be a match for anyone. They certainly shouldn’t be 14/1 – whilst their neighbours and North London rivals Spurs remain a slightly unknown quantity on a longer term basis under still relatively untried boss André Villas Boas – and so may also be worth a value-based punt.

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