• THE LONG HARD LOOK WITH MIKE WILSON
NRL ROUND 13 PREVIEW
BYES: Rabbitohs, Titans
($4.00) PARRAMATTA EELS v SYDNEY ROOSTERS ($1.26)
Friday 7th June, 7:45pm, Parramatta Stadium
Eels: Jarryd Hayne (c), Ken Sio, Ryan Morgan, Jacob Loko, Brayden Wiliame, Joseph Paulo, Chris Sandow, Tim Mannah, Matt Keating, Fuifui Moimoi, Reni Maitua (c), Matt Ryan, Peni Terepo. Interchange: Jake Mullaney, Darcy Lussick, Mitch Allgood, Pat O’Hanlon, Kenny Edwards
Roosters: Anthony Minichiello (capt), Daniel Tupou, Michael Jennings, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, James Maloney, Mitchell Pearce, Luke O’Donnell, Jake Friend, Martin Kennedy, Mitchell Aubusson, Sonny Bill Williams, Boyd Cordner. Interchange: Daniel Mortimer, Frank-Paul Nuuausala, Aidan Guerra, Lama Tasi
Parramatta fans must be feeling a bit disheartened by the Eels last two performances, going down by 20 and 38 points. Now they have to face competition heavy-weights the Roosters. The upside for Parra fans is that it’s a home clash for them and their men have fared well at Parramatta Stadium this year with losses being only by narrow margins. The downside is that 12 of the players were informed through the week by Coach Ricky Stuart that they will not be required at the team for the 2014 season. How does one get properly motivated after receiving that kind of news?
The Roosters have halves pairing Maloney and Pearce making up the 6 and 7 roles for NSW and they will probably back up for this game if they get through Origin unscathed. The rest of the team will be fresh and ready to go after last week’s bye and shouldn’t have too much problem running around the less experienced Eels team. I’m tipping the Roosters to take advantage of Parramatta’s in house woes and attack relentlessly.
Mike’s Tip: Roosters
Mike’s Best Bet: http://www.aussportstipping.com/picks/mike_wilson/105/nrl/parramatta_eels_vs_sydney_roosters/
($1.42) NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS ($2.95)
Saturday 8th June, 5.30pm, Hunter Stadium
Knights: Darius Boyd, James McManus, Dane Gagai, Joey Leilua, Kevin Naiqama, Jarrod Mullen (c), Tyrone Roberts, Kade Snowden, Travis Waddell, Willie Mason, Robbie Rochow, Chris Houston, Jeremy Smith. Interchange: Adam Clydsdale, David Fa’alogo, Adam Cuthbertson, Korbin Sims, Neville Costigan
Dragons: Josh Dugan, Brett Morris, Nathan Green, Matt Prior, Jason Nightingale, Chase Stanley, Nathan Fien, Dan Hunt, Mitch Rein, Michael Weyman, Bronson Harrison, Ben Creagh (c), Trent Merrin. Interchange: Cameron King, Tyson Frizell, Jack de Belin, Jack Stockwell, Daniel Vidot
The big news to come out of this game is that Jamie Soward has been dropped to NSW Cup and there is the possibility that Coach Steve Price won’t allow him to see out the rest of the season. Chase Stanley is the most likely replacement to take Soward’s place.
The Knights will relish the chance to play in front of their home crowd again as Hunter Stadium is the venue where they have had a majority of their success in 2013. Their last two games, both away, have resulted in losses but it would also be fair to point out that they have been missing some big name players to injury. If Darius Boyd can survive State of Origin he would be well needed in this game to help the side score some points.
My tip here goes to the Knights; I like the re-inclusion of Chris Houston to the team and as I mentioned earlier, the home ground advantage will be the icing on the cake against a Dragons side in a touch of turmoil.
Mike’s Tip: Knights
Mike’s Suggested Bet: Knights -7.5 @ $1.91 (Centrebet)
Mike’s Best Bet: None
($2.50) NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS v CANTERBURY BULLDOGS ($1.56)
Saturday 8th June, 7:30pm, 1300SMILES Stadium
Cowboys: Clint Greenshields, Ashley Graham, Brent Tate, Kane Linnett, Antonio Winterstein, Johnathan Thurston (c), Robert Lui, Matthew Scott (c), Rory Kostjasyn, James Tamou, Tariq Sims, Glenn Hall, Dallas Johnson. Interchange: Ray Thompson, Jason Taumalolo, Ashton Sims, Scott Bolton, Ethan Lowe, Michael Morgan, Kalifa Faifai Loa, Ricky Thorby
Bulldogs: Ben Barba, Mitch Brown, Tim Lafai, Krisnan Inu, Sam Perrett, Joel Romelo, Trent Hodkinson, Aiden Tolman, Michael Ennis (capt), Sam Kasiano, Frank Pritchard, Josh Jackson, Greg Eastwood. Interchange: Dene Halatau, Tim Browne, James Graham, Dale Finucane
Even the most ardent Cowboys supporters will admit that their side has been performing well below expectations and having to play a Bulldogs side who are slowly on the rise could have proven hard enough on a normal day. This week however it will have to be done with 4 players backing up from State of Origin, assuming they play at all. Thurston, Tate and Scott have played for QLD and Tamou for NSW. Regular Fullback Matt Bowen remains out with a knee problem and I just don’t like the look of this Cowboys side against a fresher Bulldogs team that only lost Josh Morris and Josh Reynolds to Origin. (Reynolds didn’t even play a single minute)
The Bulldogs will have more to give after taking it just a little bit too easy against the Dragons last week and I’m backing them in.
Mike’s Tip: Bulldogs
Mike’s Suggested Bet: Bulldogs -3.5 @ $1.80 (Centrebet)
Mike’s Best Bet: None
($2.20) NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS v MANLY SEA EAGLES ($1.70)
Sunday 9th June, 2:00pm, Mt Smart Stadium
Warriors: Kevin Locke, Glen Fisiiahi, Dane Nielsen, Konrad Hurrell, Manu Vatuvei, Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Johnson, Sam Rapria, Nathan Friend, Russell Packer, Feleti Mateo, Simon Mannering (c), Elijah Taylor. Interchange: Ben Matulino, Jacob Lillyman, Sebastine Ikahihifo, Dominique Peyroux, Suaia Matagi
Sea Eagles: Peta Hiku, Jorge Taufua, Jamie Lyon (c), Steve Matai, David Williams, Kieran Foran, Daly Cherry-Evans, Brenton Lawrence, Matt Ballin, Brent Kite, Anthony Watmough, Justin Horo, Glenn Stewart. Interchange: Tom Symonds, James Hasson, Jamie Buhrer, George Rose, David Gower
I’m not trying to be a buzz-kill for Warriors fans but sugar coating facts never spawned successful betting and it would be remiss of me not to state that there isn’t much form to be taken from their shellacking of the undermanned Broncos side on Monday night. The Broncos we’re physically too small and ultimately easy to walk over and if the Warriors expect the same this week, they’ll end up in a state of shock.
The Sea Eagles will head into the match fresh from the bye (except for Anthony Watmough who took up Origin duties) and will be raring to go.
The Sea Eagles have won all of the last 6 encounters and won’t be taking the Warriors lightly. Especially when playing in New Zealand and I expect them to be too fit for the bottom of the table Warriors and win 1-12.
Mike’s Tip: Sea Eagles
Mike’s Suggested Bet: Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $3.25 (Centrebet)
Mike’s Best Bet: None
($1.25) PENRITH PANTHERS v WESTS TIGERS ($4.10)
Sunday 9th June, 3:00pm, Centrebet Stadium
Panthers: Matt Moylan, Travis Robinson, Lewis Brown, Dean Whare, David Simmons, Isaac John, Luke Walsh, Nigel Plum, Kevin Kingston (c), Tim Grant, Sika Manu, Matt Robinson, Adam Docker. Interchange: James Segeyaro, Mose Masoe, James Roberts, Clint Newton
Tigers: Sean Meaney, David Nofoaluma, Joel Reddy, Tim Simona, Marika Koroibete, Benji Marshall, Curtis Sironen, Aaron Woods, Robbie Farah (capt), Adam Blair, Eddy Pettybourne, Ben Murdoch-Masila, Braith Anasta. Interchange: Suaso Sue, Jack Buchanan, Ava Seumanufagai, Jarred Farlow, Masada Iosefa (one to be omitted)
The Panthers have a good chance to add another win to their recent run of 3 in a row as they host a West Tigers side that will likely be without hooker Robbie Farah who suffered suspected facial fractures in Wednesday night’s State of Origin. The Panthers record for the 3 games shows an amazing 93 points gained while conceding just 16. The additions of winger Travis Robinson and fice-eighth Isaac John seem to have added some much needed spark to the team and the changes have reaped results.
The Wests Tigers are still suffering from a multitude of injury woes with Robbie Farah on the sidelines they will struggle to make ground on the Panthers and their record away from home says the same. The Tigers forward pack will unlikely compete with the forwards of the Panthers and the same can be said about the halves and backline.
Mike’s Tip: Panthers
Mike’s Suggested Bet: Penrith 13+ @ $2.10 (Centrebet)
Mike’s Best Bet: None
($1.30) MELBOURNE STORM v CRONULLA SHARKS ($3.65)
Sunday 9th June, 6:30pm, AAMI Park
Storm: Billy Slater, Sisa Waqa, Maurice Blair, Will Chambers, Justin O’Neill, Gareth Widdop, Cooper Cronk, Jesse Bromwich, Cameron Smith (capt), Bryan Norrie, Kevin Proctor, Ryan Hoffman, Ryan Hinchcliffe. Interchange: Jason Ryles, Tohu Harris, Junior Moors, Jordan McLean, Brett Finch, Tim Glasby, Kenneath Bromwich (three to be omitted)
Sharks: Michael Gordon, Sosaia Feki, Ben Pomeroy, Jonathan Wright, Beau Ryan, Todd Carney, Jeff Robson, Andrew Fifita, John Morris, Ben Ross, Luke Lewis, Wade Graham, TBA. Interchange: Chris Heighington, Jayson Bukuya, Isaac De Gois, Anthony Tupou, Tyrone Peachey, Sam Tagataese
Storm Coach Craig Bellamy has named a 7 man bench for now and I for one will not be able to predict what his final 17 man side will be so please tread cautiously with this game.
For the Sharks, most of us are aware that Paul Gallen will be taking no part in this game after a copping a 1 week suspension in State of Origin. Gallen might be rated as one of the best players in the competition but the Sharks have proven that they can win without him. They have won all 4 games that were contested in Gallen’s absence but the Storm might prove to be their toughest test yet seeing as the game is played at AAMI Park.
I won’t be adding a suggested bet for this game simply because;
A. I’m not sure who is going to be named.
B. I’m not sure how any of the 6 players backing up from Origin duties will fare.
Mike’s Tip: Storm
Mike’s Suggested Bet: None
Mike’s Best Bet: None
($1.38) CANBERRA RAIDERS v BRISBANE BRONCOS ($3.15)
Monday 10th June, 7:00pm, Canberra Stadium
Raiders: Reece Robinson, Jack Wighton, Jarrod Croker, Blake Ferguson, Edrick Lee, Terry Campese (c), Josh McCrone, David Shillington, Shaun Berrigan, Brett White, Josh Papalii, Joel Thompson, Shaun Fensom. Interchange: Anthony Milford, Joe Picker, Dane Tilse, Paul Vaughan
Broncos: Corey Norman, Aaron Whitchurch, Jack Reed, Josh Hoffman, Jordan Kahu, Scott Prince, Peter Wallace, Josh McGuire, Andrew McCullough, Sam Thaiday (c), Alex Glenn, Matt Gillett, Corey Parker. Interchange: Ben Hunt, David Hala, Scott Anderson, Mitchell Dodds, Jarrod Wallace, Dunamis Lui, Nick Slyney
As I mentioned earlier, there was no form or an info of real value to be taken out of the Broncos v Warriors game last week but the Broncos do need to improve on that effort if they are to keep their season from a horrible downward spiral. Many have been quick to point out the high success rate of teams coming off a big loss, and I am one of those believers as well. However, I don’t envisage the Broncos having the nous to combine and overthrow the green machine on a cold winters night in the nation’s capital.
This game comes off as a tough one to bet on as I believe the bookies have the prices and line pretty much spot on. The Raiders have won 4 of the last 5 against the Broncos at home with results including some decent sized margins. Personally I would avoid betting on this match but my prime selection would be the Raiders to win by 8+
Mike’s Tip: Raiders
Mike’s Suggested Bet: Raiders -8.5 @ $1.81 (Centrebet)
Mike’s Best Bet: None
mike i reckon the cowboys will do against the bulldogs, and watch out manly , the ol warriors gonna do em. you havent any oul tip for a horse tommorow that might cover the rent.????
Only just saw your post. I only had 3 bets today, I layed Syd Race 1 # 1 and backed Bris Race 3 # 6 which finished 3rd. So nothing very exciting there. My third was in the Stradbroke but no luck there. Hope you fared well!
Expecting Roosters to take advantage of the Eels retention policy. Was look at roosters team over, but that’s been set at 27.5, while should be obtained u never know…. thinking between that and Roosters 13+, surely Eels are there for taking, as Eels are surely not a happy camp.
Yeah you were spot on Goodsy. I was of the same mind hence the best bet being on that game. I’m glad I got in early before the odds got slashed.