NRL Round 16 Preview and Tips

• THE LONG HARD LOOK WITH MIKE WILSON

NRL ROUND 16 PREVIEW

 

BYES: Parramatta Eels, Canterbury Bulldogs.

 

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS v CANBERRA RAIDERS
Friday 28th June, 7:45pm, ANZ Stadium

Rabbitohs: Greg Inglis, Nathan Merritt, Bryson Goodwin, Dylan Walker, Andrew Everingham, John Sutton, Adam Reynolds, Dave Tyrrell, Issac Luke, Roy Asotasi, Chris McQueen, Ben Te’o, Sam Burgess. Interchange: Nathan Peats, Ben Lowe, Jeff Lima, Tom Burgess, Dylan Farrell, Justin Hunt, Luke Keary, Josh Starling

Raiders: Reece Robinson, Sandor Earl, Jarrod Croker, Jack Wighton, Sami Sauiluma, Terry Campese (c), Josh McCrone, David Shillington, Glen Buttriss, Dane Tilse, Josh Papalii, Joel Thompson, Shaun Fensom. Interchange: Anthony Milford, Joel Edwards, Sam Mataora, Paul Vaughan, Jarrad Kennedy

The Rabbitohs just keep on keeping on come rain, hail or shine. With Greg Inglis back in the side following Origin duties the team will be massively boosted in their bid to claim yet another 2 points. The Raiders have shown some productive improvements in their backline plays but the bottom line is that they have only won one game away from home this season. You can add to that the fact that South Sydney have won the last 4 encounters against the Raiders.

With those glaring statistics I’m not prepared in any way to stick my neck out for the Raiders and will be sticking firmly with the Rabbitohs

Mike’s Tip: Rabbitohs

Mike’s Suggested Bet: For multi bets –  Rabbitohs to convert the most tries @ $1.25 (Centrebet)

Mike’s Best Bet: None

 

WESTS TIGERS v MELBOURNE STORM
Saturday 29th June, 5.30pm, Leichhardt Oval

Wests Tigers: James Tedesco, David Nofoaluma, Blake Ayshford, Chris Lawrence, Tim Simona, Benji Marshall, Curtis Sironen, Aaron Woods, Robbie Farah, Adam Blair, Liam Fulton, Joel Reddy, Suaso Sue. Interchange: Ava Seumanufagai, Jack Buchanan, Shaun Spence, Bodene Thompson, Ben Murdoch-Masila

Storm: Billy Slater, Sisa Waqa, Will Chambers, Maurice Blair, Justin O’Neill, Brett Finch, Cooper Cronk, Jesse Bromwich, Cameron Smith (c), Bryan Norrie, Kevin Proctor, Ryan Hoffman, Ryan Hinchcliffe. Interchange: Jason Ryles, Mitch Garbutt, Tohu Harris, Slade Griffin, Ben Hampton, Siosaia Vave, Junior Moors

The Storm are vulnerable; not that you have to be a genius to deduce such a conclusion during State of Origin time, but are they at risk from a hot and cold (mostly cold) Wests Tigers? I say ‘yes’.

The Tigers have been aboard a shaky ship all year but the last few weeks have shown signs of the ship being steadied and what better place to keep up the improvements than at Leichhardt Oval?

Benji Marshall stated after last week’s win over the Raiders that he had looked to demonstrate some control in attack and take charge of his players. I’m sure he’ll be keen to do the same against the premiers who have 3 players backing up from State of Origin and no Cam Smith (facial injury) and Gareth Widdop (hip injury).

The Storm are there to be beaten and I think they were made to look a bit better than they actually were against the Titans last week who opted for a lot of low percentage that could have lead to more points had they played the high percentage variety.

Mike’s Tip: Tigers

Mike’s Best Bet: http://www.aussportstipping.com/picks/mike_wilson/119/nrl/wests_tigers_vs_melbourne_storm/

 

PENRITH PANTHERS v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Saturday 29TH June, 7:30pm, Centrebet Stadium

Panthers: Matt Moylan, James Roberts, Brad Tighe, Dean Whare, David Simmons, Isaac John, Luke Walsh, Nigel Plum, Kevin Kingston (c), Tim Grant, Matt Robinson, Lewis Brown, Adam Docker. Interchange: James Segeyaro, Mose Masoe, Cameron Ciraldo, Clint Newton

Dragons: Josh Dugan, Brett Morris, Nathan Green, Matt Prior, Jason Nightingale, Chase Stanley, Nathan Fien, Dan Hunt, Mitch Rein, Jack Stockwell, Tyson Frizell, Ben Creagh (c), Trent Merrin. Interchange: Cameron King, Leeson Ah Mau, Jack de Belin, Michael Weyman

There’s not much that I’m interested in for this game in regards to the head to head matchup but I am however interested in the total points. I’m expecting a low scoring match, especially with the Dragons who are averaging just 14.8 points per game in attack, and if you take out their win against the ordinary Eels it drops to 13.5 per game. 4 of these teams’ last 5 meetings have seen match totals been 31 points or less.

Mike’s Tip: Panthers

Mike’s Best Bet: http://www.aussportstipping.com/picks/mike_wilson/120/nrl/penrith_panthers_vs_st_george_dragons/

 

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS v GOLD COAST TITANS
Sunday 30th June, 2:00pm, Hunter Stadium

Knights: Darius Boyd, James McManus, Dane Gagai, Joey Leilua, Aku Uate, Jarrod Mullen (c), Tyrone Roberts, Kade Snowden, Danny Buderus, Willie Mason, Robbie Rochow, Beau Scott, Jeremy Smith. Interchange: Craig Gower, Chris Houston, Zane Tetevano, Neville Costigan

Titans: William Zillman, Kevin Gordon, David Mead, Jamal Idris, Anthony Don, Aidan Sezer, Albert Kelly, Luke Bailey, Matt Srama, Luke Douglas, David Taylor, Mark Minichiello, Ashley Harrison. Interchange: Mark Ioane, Ryan James, Ben Ridge, Sam Irwin, Luke O’Dwyer, Nate Myles, Greg Bird

An interesting game looms here as the Titans head to Hunter Stadium as outsiders ($2.55) to the Knights ($1.53). I sat down over the weekend to try and determine which teams will finish in the top 8 and whilst I came up unsure about the Titans at this stage, I did not have Newcastle there.

The Titans have done plenty to impress me in the last 5 weeks including some demonstrations of crisp backline movements conducive to points. The only hiccup was against the Storm last week when I firmly believe the Titans took their opposition far too lightly and attempted to win the match with low percentage plays, ultimately failing to pull the fancy moves off. They still managed to win however and I’m certain Coach John Cartwright will have his Titans nailing down the basics at training this week in preparation for their tilt at victory on enemy soil. I tip they’ll succeed.

Mike’s Tip: Titans

Mike’s Best Bet: http://www.aussportstipping.com/picks/mike_wilson/121/nrl/newcastle_knights_vs_gold_coast_titans/

 

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS v BRISBANE BRONCOS
Sunday 30th June, 4:00pm, Mt Smart Stadium

Warriors: Glen Fisiiahi, Ngani Laumape, Dane Nielsen, Konrad Hurrell, Manu Vatuvei, Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Johnson, Sam Rapira, Nathan Friend, Ben Matulino, Feleti Mateo, Simon Mannering (c), Elijah Taylor. Interchange: Russell Packer, Jacob Lillyman, Todd Lowrie, Dominique Peyroux, Kevin Locke, Suaia Matagi

Broncos: Corey Norman, Josh Hoffman, Jack Reed, Justin Hodges, Lachlan Maranta, Scott Prince, Peter Wallace, Ben Hannant, Andrew McCullough, Sam Thaiday (c), Alex Glenn, Matt Gillett, Corey Parker. Interchange: Ben Hunt, Josh McGuire, David Hala, Mitchell Dodds, Jarrod Wallace, Dunamis Lui

4 weeks ago the Warriors had a paltry 2 wins to their name but as they enter round 16 they suddenly have 6 thanks to a 4 game winning streak. In an almost contrary fashion the Broncos have suffered 3 losses from their last 4 games and sit 11^th on the ladder just one spot above the Warriors thanks to a superior for and against record.

The Warriors are the team of the two that are playing much better football and it’s hard to deny that they have showed patches of form in the last 4 games that resembles that of a top 4 contender.

I would rate the Warriors about a $1.45 chance to win thanks to the home ground advantage and the Broncos having representative players backing up from State of Origin. $1.45 is about 10c over the current price but I’m not tempted to back them and I will avoid this game.

Mike’s Tip: Warriors

Mike’s Suggested Bet: For multi bets – Warriors Head to Head @ $1.36 (Bet365)

Mike’s Best Bet: None

 

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS v CRONULLA SHARKS
Sunday 30th June, 6:30pm, 1300SMILES Stadium

Cowboys: Clint Greenshields, Ashley Graham, Brent Tate, Kane Linnett, Antonio Winterstein, Johnathan Thurston (c), Robert Lui, Matthew Scott (c), Ray Thompson, James Tamou, Tariq Sims, Glenn Hall, Dallas Johnson. Interchange: Rory Kostjasyn, Gavin Cooper, Ashton Sims, Scott Bolton, Ricky Thorby, Jason Taumalolo, Ethan Lowe

Sharks: Michael Gordon, Sosaia Feki, Ben Pomeroy, Jonathan Wright, Beau Ryan, Todd Carney, Jeff Robson, Andrew Fifita, John Morris, Sam Tagataese, Luke Lewis, Wade Graham, TBA. Interchange: Chris Heighington, Jayson Bukuya, Isaac De Gois, Anthony Tupou, Ben Ross, Bryce Gibbs

I’m expecting a resurgence from the Cowboys in the 2^nd half of the season and I’m expecting it to start this week. They host the Sharks at home and both sides have their share of Origin representatives backing up but the Sharks will most likely be without captain Paul Gallen due to a foot injury.

The Cowboys results of late haven’t been great thanks to the loss of their origin players but with Johnathan Thurston back in the side fit and healthy, the Cowboys are a different beast. Their start to the 2013 season has been poor at best but that’s not to say they potential hasn’t been there. I’m confident they can win at home by 2 or more.

Mike’s Tip: Cowboys

Mike’s Suggested Bet: Cowboys -1.5 @ $1.55 (Centrebet)

Mike’s Best Bet: None

 

SYDNEY ROOSTERS v MANLY SEA EAGLES
Monday 1st July, 7:00pm, Allianz Stadium

Roosters: Anthony Minichiello (c), Daniel Tupou, Michael Jennings, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, James Maloney, Mitchell Pearce, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Jake Friend, Luke O’Donnell, Mitchell Aubusson, Sonny Bill Williams, Boyd Cordner. Interchange: Daniel Mortimer, Frank-Paul Nuuausala, Aidan Guerra, Sam Moa, Isaac Liu

Sea Eagles: Peta Hiku, Jorge Taufua, Jamie Lyon, Steve Matai, David Williams, Kieran Foran, Daly Cherry-Evans, Brenton Lawrence, Matt Ballin, Brent Kite, Anthony Watmough, Justin Horo, Glenn Stewart. Interchange: Jamie Buhrer, Tom Symonds, James Hasson, George Rose

These two sides met back in round 9 on a Monday night on the Sea Eagles home turf in a match that saw the Roosters guts out an impressive win. This time around the battle takes place on the Roosters’ home turf and one would think they hold a slight edge.

In case you forgot, the game in round 9 was when Jared Warea-Hargreaves copped a 6 week suspension for a high tackle and ironically he makes his return against the Sea Eagles. Unfortunately the Roosters have to make their way without 5/8^th James Maloney who suffered an eye injury in State of Origin.

I can’t quite bring myself to tip Manly here. Whilst they are playing solid footy, it might take a bit more than that to defeat the Roosters in their current form. Manly seem to be carrying Glen Stewart a bit and it’s having a slight knock on effect throughout the rest of the team.

Mike’s Tip: Roosters

Mike’s Suggested Bet: None

Mike’s Best Bet: None